Bills Draft History - The Price For Shaheed

[jwhit34]

Shaheed was traded for a 4th and a 5th. I Think he's a UFA after the season.

 

Let's say that Beane was offered the same deal, a 4th and a 5th for Shaheed. If I'm Beane, to judge the relative value, I look at the picks I have had in those rounds in the draft as one data point in evaluating the deal. Here is the history since the current regime arrived:

 

Year                             4th Round                                     5th Round

2025                       Deone Walker                          J. Hawes, J. Hancock

2024                       Ray Davis                                 S. VP-Granger, J. Solomon, E. Ulafoshio

2023                       --------------                          J. Shorter

2022                       --------------                          K. Shakir

2021                        --------------                          T. Doyle

2020                       Gabe Davis                               J. Fromm

2019                        -----------                               V. Joseph

2018                        Taron Johnson                        S. Neal, W. Teller

2017                         --------------                         M. Milano

 

All 4 of the 4th rounders have been good players (I look at this and say don't trade 4th rounders, you have a knack for finding players). 5th rounders have had more hits than misses, with Milano, Teller and Shakir being terrific picks. 

 

So in the extreme cases, would you trade Taron Johnson and Wyatt Teller for a rental Shaheed or Walker and Hawes for Shaheed? 

 

Give credit to the sellers yesterday, they made out very well. If the Bills were in on some deals and the price paid is indicative of where the market was on others, I think it's probably good that they passed on trades. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

I thought you were going to point out that Shaheed originally went undrafted by all 32 teams and is now being traded for a 4th and 5th round pick.  Solid work by the Saints in finding and developing him.

Edited 2 hours ago by strive_for_five_guy

[The Firebaugh Kid]

This offense doesn't use its WRs. He's a bit of a waste here. 

What we needed was a true #1 who can win one on ones. Those aren't ready available mid-season. 

[LEBills]

3 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

Shaheed was traded for a 4th and a 5th. I Think he's a UFA after the season.

 

Let's say that Beane was offered the same deal, a 4th and a 5th for Shaheed. If I'm Beane, to judge the relative value, I look at the picks I have had in those rounds in the draft as one data point in evaluating the deal. Here is the history since the current regime arrived:

 

Year                             4th Round                                     5th Round

2025                       Deone Walker                          J. Hawes, J. Hancock

2024                       Ray Davis                                 S. VP-Granger, J. Solomon, E. Ulafoshio

2023                       --------------                          J. Shorter

2022                       --------------                          K. Shakir

2021                        --------------                          T. Doyle

2020                       Gabe Davis                               J. Fromm

2019                        -----------                               V. Joseph

2018                        Taron Johnson                        S. Neal, W. Teller

2017                         --------------                         M. Milano

 

All 4 of the 4th rounders have been good players (I look at this and say don't trade 4th rounders, you have a knack for finding players). 5th rounders have had more hits than misses, with Milano, Teller and Shakir being terrific picks. 

 

So in the extreme cases, would you trade Taron Johnson and Wyatt Teller for a rental Shaheed or Walker and Hawes for Shaheed? 

 

Give credit to the sellers yesterday, they made out very well. If the Bills were in on some deals and the price paid is indicative of where the market was on others, I think it's probably good that they passed on trades. 

It’s a rental to potentially improve your offense for a Super Bowl run. Then you can either resign him or allow him to walk. He is projected to get a good size contract in Free Agency and so you should be able to recoup one of those picks as a comp pick in 2027.
 

I would have done it for that price. But I’m not heartbroken we didn’t either.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

This offense doesn't use its WRs. He's a bit of a waste here. 

What we needed was a true #1 who can win one on ones. Those aren't ready available mid-season. 

 

This is where I am at. Shaheed was a potential complimentary piece. A complimentary piece might help a bit but it doesn't change this offense or how teams defend us. Only a true potential outside #1 does that. 

 

Last year you had Adams, DHop and Coop who have all been that in their careers on the market though well on the back 9 and trying for them made sense to me even if Coop didn't totally work out. The trade market this year didn't have those kind of options available. It had pieces that to me move the dial very little. Is there a price at which Shaheed made sense to me? Yea. Not sure it was more than what Seattle paid. 

[boyst]

9 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

This offense doesn't use its WRs. He's a bit of a waste here. 

What we needed was a true #1 who can win one on ones. Those aren't ready available mid-season. 

We keep saying this. We keep wanting it to be true. But if we had a premiere true number #1 and not just a #1A... We would use them. 

 

That doesn't mean we need a Jamar Chase, or Justin Jefferson. But we need the right wide receiver who could come in and dominate a game. We don't have that. At one point we had two of those with Beasley and diggs. We had amazing death with Isaiah McKenzie and Gabe Davis. We had John Brown and Emmanuel Sanders as dedicated number #2. 

 

If we got a game changer that puts Coleman to #3, Palmer as #2 splitting with Davis. #2 by committee, essentially.  We would have gadget guys like moore was when we had Mckenzie. We have a downgraded Beasley in Shakir. But we have a chance to be solid with a #1 target. 

[VW82]

I'd also suggest that the price was probably higher for us. We paid a 3rd last year for a washed up Cooper. Trading for another rental would signal just how desperate we are, and the seller is always going to take advantage of that. 

 

Also, as good as Seattle looks today, odds would suggest Bills are a better bet to go further in the playoffs, therefore making our pick(s) worth less. 

 

We would've been on the hook for at least another 3rd. I get that to many here that's a pittance for an additional 3% shot at a SB, but it's worth noting imo.

Edited 1 hour ago by VW82

[Lost]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This is where I am at. Shaheed was a potential complimentary piece. A complimentary piece might help a bit but it doesn't change this offense or how teams defend us. Only a true potential outside #1 does that. 

 

Last year you had Adams, DHop and Coop who have all been that in their careers on the market though well on the back 9 and trying for them made sense to me even if Coop didn't totally work out. The trade market this year didn't have those kind of options available. It had pieces that to me move the dial very little. Is there a price at which Shaheed made sense to me? Yea. Not sure it was more than what Seattle paid. 

 

It's early but any idea how the receiver draft class is shaping up for 2026?   

[BuffaloBillyG]

Just now, VW82 said:

I'd also suggest that the price was probably higher for us. We paid a 3rd last year for a washed up Cooper. Trading for another rental would signal just how desperate we are, and the seller is always going to take advantage of that. 

 

Also, as good as Seattle looks today, odds would suggest Bills are a better bet to go further in the playoffs, therefore making our pick(s) worth less. We would've been on the hook for at least another 3rd. 

I'm not sure if a 3rd should have been out of the question.

 

I don't think the odds are higher of finding  a better WR in round 3 than Shaheed. Yes it happens but it's more rare. Also, even if we decided not to bring him back, with what WR contracts are these days someone will vastly over pay him in the FA market, likely resulting in a nice comp pick. 

[VW82]

12 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I'm not sure if a 3rd should have been out of the question.

 

I don't think the odds are higher of finding  a better WR in round 3 than Shaheed. Yes it happens but it's more rare. Also, even if we decided not to bring him back, with what WR contracts are these days someone will vastly over pay him in the FA market, likely resulting in a nice comp pick. 

 

I'm not even sure Shaheed is better than the guys we already have on the roster, and all this talk of him expanding his route tree reminds me of what we said about Gabe Davis once upon a time. Maybe I'll be wrong and he'll turn out to be a legit threat that does way more than run a go route, and our WRs will get worse and worse and we'll lose in the playoffs because Kincaid will be injured and teams will run eight man boxes and Josh will take sack after sack because he just doesn't trust anyone to get open...but right now I can't get to that level of chicken little. This group still looks better to me than what fans are claiming.

Edited 1 hour ago by VW82

[Alphadawg7]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This is where I am at. Shaheed was a potential complimentary piece. A complimentary piece might help a bit but it doesn't change this offense or how teams defend us. Only a true potential outside #1 does that. 

 

Last year you had Adams, DHop and Coop who have all been that in their careers on the market though well on the back 9 and trying for them made sense to me even if Coop didn't totally work out. The trade market this year didn't have those kind of options available. It had pieces that to me move the dial very little. Is there a price at which Shaheed made sense to me? Yea. Not sure it was more than what Seattle paid. 

 

This is exactly what I have been saying during all the "go trade for Shaheed" stuff this season.  We have already seen this OC not use MVS or Harty last year in that stretch the defense role when they in fact filled similar roles to Shaheed in NO and that was what the point of them being here was supposed to be.  This year we have Samuel (4.31 forty) and Moore (4.35 forty) not have their speed used much to open up down field again.  

 

I think one of the biggest changes Brady brought to the offense was his realization that the deep ball shots are not Allens strong suit.  He wasn't wrong, but I also think he has a bit over corrected here too by taking it almost completely out.  But none the less, I think a gadget type one dimensional WR was less on their radar as that one thing isn't really what Allen excels at, they wanted a legit WR1 who can be a threat deep but also be a playmaker all over the field. 

 

Despite some of the heat some are giving Beane, I don't really think there is much to criticize Beane on here as all the buzz was that he was active on trying to get one, but it takes 2 to tango.  The only really big ticket that got traded that was at a position we really needed the help at was Quinnen, but many reports have come out that AFCE teams were told they were not interested on trading within the division.  Which is a pretty easy thing to assume and believe too, especially Bills and NE who seem set still a long time to be tough with the QB situations locked down.

 

The best thing that came out of this trade deadline was all the stuff coming out about Beane being actively calling on legit WR1 type options. Gives me hope that this offseason and draft it will be a top priority and hopefully we see them either land one in FA/Trade (no idea who is going to be available) or aggressive in getting one in the draft, including moving up to do so.

[BuffaloBillyG]

11 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

I'm not even sure Shaheed is better than the guys we already have on the roster, and all this talk of him expanding his route tree reminds me of what we said about Gabe Davis once upon a time. Maybe I'll be wrong and he'll turn out to be a legit threat that does way more than run a go route, and our WRs will get worse and worse and we'll lose in the playoffs because Kincaid will be injured and teams will run eight man boxes and Josh will take sack after sack because he just doesn't trust anyone to get open...but right now I can't get to that level of chicken little. This group still looks better to me than what fans are claiming.

Here's the thing. Go look at any week of any game we have played. Check out the targets for any WR not named Shakir. It's nauseating. 

 

Early in the season Coleman had a good amount, but those have been scaled back. Now it leads to a chicken or the egg type question. Do the outside WR on this team not get targets because of the offense, or does the offense not scheme the throws to the outside due to the WRS?

[LEBills]

8 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

The best thing that came out of this trade deadline was all the stuff coming out about Beane being actively calling on legit WR1 type options. Gives me hope that this offseason and draft it will be a top priority and hopefully we see them either land one in FA/Trade (no idea who is going to be available) or aggressive in getting one in the draft, including moving up to do so.

Let’s hope. Keeping the OL together and adding a WR1 gives this offense everything we could ask for in 2026.

[BuffaloBill]

The Bills really value draft capital. 

[Success]

I'm one who thought Shaheed wouldn't have moved the needle and would have been just a "move for move's sake."

 

But I think one thing we haven't talked about too much is the Bills' cap situation as it relates to future drafts.  We'll be able to free some cap each year, but will likely always be in a situation where it will be tough to add quality FA's w/ the limited money we have.

 

Given that, there is a higher premium on future draft picks for a team like the Bills. We need as many picks as we can get in the years ahead when it comes to adding quality players inexpensively.

 

[Pete]

Draft cost for Shaheed- a 3rd round pick.

 

would you not trade Landon Jackson for Shaheed?

 

Would you not trade DeWayne Carter for Shaheed?

[turbo044]

Beane is basically as good in the mid rounds as he is in the early rounds - should have given up a 1+ for Waddle or Olave.

[folz]

56 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I'm not sure if a 3rd should have been out of the question.

 

I don't think the odds are higher of finding  a better WR in round 3 than Shaheed. Yes it happens but it's more rare. Also, even if we decided not to bring him back, with what WR contracts are these days someone will vastly over pay him in the FA market, likely resulting in a nice comp pick. 

 

Well, Beane did find Shakir in the 5th round (not saying you'd hit on every WR drafted rounds 3-5, as far as odds, but there are guys out there):

 

Shaheed (6'0", 180 pounds---4.43 40-yard dash time) 

3-1/2 years played; 28 starts; 138 receptions on 216 targets for 2,055 yards and 12 TDs. Catch % 63.9. Suc rate 48.6%. yds/rec 14.9; yds/target 9.5.

 

Shakir (6'0", 190 pounds---4.43 40-yard dash time)

3-1/2 years played; 28 starts; 163 receptions on 214 targets for 1,992 yards and 10 TDs. Catch % 76.2%. Suc rate 56.1%. yds/rec 12.2; yds/target 9.3.

 

Pretty similar guys. Sure, maybe Shaheed is better at deep sideline catches, but Khalil is better at screens, stuff over the middle (short and intermediate), and YAC.

 

Plus, it's not just the 4th and 5th round picks, or 3rd round pick (if you are looking at it that way), but Shaheed was still owed $2.125 million dollars this year, and he is a free agent at the end of the season. That's a lot to give up for a 10-12 game rental, unless you are sure that he can help put you over the top. And if you do resign him, you are probably going to over pay for him. Now if you draft a rookie in the third round, you have him for at least 4 years on a rookie salary. A lot more goes into it than just how good the player is.

 

 

Edited 45 minutes ago by folz

[Pete]

Not to mention, I expect Shaheed to get paid.  He signs a big contract, that’s a comp pick.  If you can’t resign him, you get comp pick.  So true deal is a 3rd for Shaheed and 4/5.

 

 

[Max Fischer]

I like Shaheed, and he may have been an upgrade, but I'm not sure he was worth a 4th and 5th as a rental. It's pretty steep, especially if he isn't a proven difference-maker.