Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?

[BullBuchanan]

If you haven't watched Michael MacKelvie's stuff before, he just might be the most interesting sports content creator out there right now.
 
After watching this video, I checked the Bills rushing and passing per attempt, and while rushing at #2 (5.2 YPA) wasn't a total surprise, I was definitely shocked to see us at tied with Detroit #5 (8.0 YPA) in passing. Interesting there's only three teams inside the top 10 in both (Bills, Colts, Ravens), and only the Bills and Colts are in the top 5 in both. Every team except the Ravens in the top 10 passing YPA is in a playoff spot right now. On the top 10 rushing YPA, it's 40-60 (Bills, Colts, Broncos, Chargers) with the Panthers and Jags each on the edge.

McDermott has been  telling us for years that he wants to run the football, and Beane has been telling us for a couple years that he doesn't think we have a receiving issue. Is it possible they're actually on to something here?

 

Edited 4 hours ago by BullBuchanan

[Coach Tuesday]

They will eventually HAVE TO pass to win a game.  Probably this Sunday when the Chiefs go up by two scores to start the game.  Let’s see if they can turn on the octane when they need to - I’m skeptical.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Low attempts, Id imagine? Skews it a bit. Just a guess. 

[26TrapDraw]

3 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

They will eventually HAVE TO pass to win a game.  Probably this Sunday when the Chiefs go up by two scores to start the game.  Let’s see if they can turn on the octane when they need to - I’m skeptical.

100 percent this

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

Low attempts, Id imagine? Skews it a bit. Just a guess. 

Shockingly, no. they're right in line with everyone else except KC
 

[WotAGuy]

Can we cut with the facts and data and get back to pitchforks now?

[Pete]

Running is awesome.  Its also awesome to use running to set up the pass.  When we pass out of 12 and 13 personal, we are very successful.  Problem is its usually only twice a game.  Try that out sometime Joe.  Heres another freebie Joe.  KC is dead last versus play action.  Me, Joe Marino, and everyone, have been pounding the table for MORE PLAY ACTION!  This week against KC would be a great opportunity for plentiful play action.

[Fan in Chicago]

11 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

McDermott has been  telling us for years that he wants to run the football, and Beane has been telling us for a couple years that he doesn't think we have a receiving issue. Is it possible they're actually on to something here?

 

Did the offense look elite against the Patriots and Falcons ?

[julian]

Interesting video.

[BullBuchanan]

4 minutes ago, Pete said:

Running is awesome.  Its also awesome to use running to set up the pass.  When we pass out of 12 and 13 personal, we are very successful.  Problem is its usually only twice a game.  Try that out sometime Joe.  Heres another freebie Joe.  KC is dead last versus play action.  Me, Joe Marino, and everyone, have been pounding the table for MORE PLAY ACTION!  This week against KC would be a great opportunity for plentiful play action.

In his video, he specifically identifies Seattle for being successful in the same situations, especially so when opposing defenses try to match personnel.

If you can pass really well out of a heavy formation, it gives you a ton of opportunities at deception and exploiting matchups, while keeping things simpler for your own personnel. It honestly seems like a brilliant thing to do to me, assuming you have the horses for it. When we look at how much they've loaded up on TE in the past few years, it starts to make you wonder.

 

[BVBILLS]

Pats used to use the 2 TE a lot

[BADOLBILZ]

27 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

They will eventually HAVE TO pass to win a game.  Probably this Sunday when the Chiefs go up by two scores to start the game.  Let’s see if they can turn on the octane when they need to - I’m skeptical.

 

Yeah they have basically been a run first team since Brady took over so not sure why the OP would think this is a surprise.

 

The problem is that run defense basically comes down to effort and execution.   In the playoffs those are easy for defense's to wratchet up.  

 

That's why they are getting significantly diminishing scoring returns in the divisional and AFCCG levels where they face really good teams.  

 

And it's essentially why one-dimensional run offense's like the early 1990's Chiefs.....with rare exception.....have not been able to survive the playoffs for the past 50 years.  

 

Unless you have one of those once-in-a-decade+ defense's there are absolutely going to be times when you HAVE to throw the ball.  

 

And since Brady took over the Bills offense has had the ball with a chance to ice the Chiefs late in playoff games both years and failed because of a lack of playmakers in the passing game.

Edited 4 hours ago by BADOLBILZ

[Dick_Cheney]

I mean the run game is clearly there and can be championship caliber. 

 

I don't see why you wouldn't enhance the passing attack with at least SOMEBODY, otherwise we'll stay a mostly one trick pony who sometimes can do something downfield. 

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yeah they have basically been a run first team since Brady took over so not sure why the OP would think this is a surprise.

 

The problem is that run defense basically comes down to effort and execution.   In the playoffs those are easy for defense's to wratchet up.  

 

That's why they are getting significantly diminishing scoring returns in the divisional and AFCCG levels where they face really good teams.  

 

And it's essentially why one-dimensional run offense's like the early 1990's Chiefs.....with rare exception.....have been able to survive the playoffs for the past 50 years.  

 

Unless you have one of those once-in-a-decade+ defense's there are absolutely going to be times when you HAVE to throw the ball.  

 

And since Brady took over the Bills offense has had the ball with a chance to ice the Chiefs late in playoff games both years and failed because of a lack of playmakers in the passing game.

I don't think it's a surprise. I mentioned that rather explicitly.

A couple of you guys are getting distracted about this whole "you HAVE to be able to throw the ball" point. Well, If you read my post, I've got great news for you. Not only CAN we pass the ball, but it would appear we're one of the best teams int he league at it right now. Sleep easy. 

2 minutes ago, Dick_Cheney said:

I mean the run game is clearly there and can be championship caliber. 

 

I don't see why you wouldn't enhance the passing attack with at least SOMEBODY, otherwise we'll stay a mostly one trick pony who sometimes can do something downfield. 

Are you intentionally ignoring the data that says this isn't true?

[ScottishBills]

10 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

Are you intentionally ignoring the data that says this isn't true?

 

Yes - and using eyes instead. In the high leverage moments it is failing much more than it is working. Or at the very least has been going backwards. 

 

Baltimore Q4 - yep, after being poor for most of the game

Jets - passable

Dolphins - passable

Saints - messy

Pats game - nope

Falcons game - nope

Carolina - not used much or needed, but what we saw wasn't great. 

Edited 4 hours ago by ScottishBills

[BullBuchanan]

Just now, ScottishBills said:

 

Yes - and using eyes instead. In the high leverage moments it is failing much more than it is working. Or at the very least has been going backwards. 

 

Baltimore Q4 - yep, after being poor for most of the game

Jets - passable

Dolphins - passable

Saints - messy

Pats game - nope

Falcons game - nope

Carolina - not used much or needed, but what we saw wasn't great

There's no such thing as "high leverage moments" in September and October.

[Dick_Cheney]

10 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I don't think it's a surprise. I mentioned that rather explicitly.

A couple of you guys are getting distracted about this whole "you HAVE to be able to throw the ball" point. Well, If you read my post, I've got great news for you. Not only CAN we pass the ball, but it would appear we're one of the best teams int he league at it right now. Sleep easy. 

Are you intentionally ignoring the data that says this isn't true?

As much of a data guy as I am, sorry, we're just not a threat through the air. I'm sure the numbers can be presented in some kind of a way that might look effective or successful, but that's just not an accurate representation of what's actually happened on the field time and time again. 

 

Not to mention the plays that aren't even being schemed/attempted since, you know, we don't have anyone who can pull them off. 

[Draconator]

12 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Are you intentionally ignoring the data that says this isn't true?

No one cares about data. They just want the shiny object.

[strive_for_five_guy]

Maybe not secretly, but quietly

[GoBills808]

40 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

Low attempts, Id imagine? Skews it a bit. Just a guess. 

Correct

 

Put it this way- if you have fewer attempts AND lower ypa you are truly ***** passing wise