Bills Don't have Receiver Problem, they have a perception problem-- Jim Kubiak BN

[Casey D]

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/article_efc2cd6d-144e-48fd-91c2-2e1997a5017e.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=email&utm_campaign=user-share

 

Really interesting take.  He points out that the Bills have developed a much greater capacity to run the ball, which takes pressure off Allen.  Bills need to stick to formula to pound the football and not turn it over.  

 

On Allen and the receivers, several interesting points.  He points out that Allen's completion percentage is up from 2024 from 63.5% to 68%, and YPG up from 219 to 222. Biggest difference is he is taking more sacks and committing more turnovers.  As to receivers, defenses are playing soft man-to man coverage and giving receivers large cushions that no receiver can just blow by and go deep, but there is lots of underneath stuff there. He points to a third-and -1 where Allen throws to Coleman immediately for a first down as defender is over 5 yards off the Line giving Coleman big cushion.

 

He also points out Allen's footwork and accuracy sucked in the first half, and Trubisky is looking like a more competent backup.

 

Prognosis is that Bills/Allen still not playing great but certainly can if they stick to formula. Allen just needs to play a bit smarter, but the game against Carolina in second half was a good step forward from previous weeks.

 

Behind BN paywall.  

 

 

[yall]

I mostly agree with this premise. I still say our receiving corps needs and upgrade, but the underneath stuff has absolutely been there and Josh isn't playing at his best.

 

If he gets just a little bit better at seeing/taking the underneath stuff we'll be fine.

[BuffaloBillyG]

No, Jim. We indeed have a receiver problem. No one can get open, which also forces us to turn to the run. I fear that soon that will lead to a RB problem  because Cook is taking a lot of hits and we have no capable RB behind him to take some of the early season wear and tear off.

 

We are one dimensional with the most gifted QB on Earth. It's like taking the tires off a Ferrari and replacing them with sandbags.

Edited 2 hours ago by BuffaloBillyG

[First Round Bust]

WGR AM show brought up an interesting point yesterday...historically thrwoing the long ball (touch, loft, accuracy) has not been one of Josh strenghts...a point I have made over the years as well..partly his fault, partly the WR issue...resulting the OC play-calling not having confidence in that play and talking himself out of it ??? flame on...    

[SCBills]

I’d contend that if our WR’s aren’t capable of doing things Allen is comfortable with, thus making him regress with the solution seeming to be forcing him into becoming a game manager, that it’s indeed a problem. 
 

We also don’t have the Defense, at least historically, to beat teams when it matters with ball control. 
 

This concept requires having a Defense that can hold an opposing QB below 30 in high leverage games. 
 

Also, Brady made mention of us only getting 8 drives per game.  The Offense is cognizant of the games being shortened and that surely leads to Allen pressing. 

Instead of all this soul searching and wanting Allen to be Brock Purdy, maybe we can just get him a WR… I know, crazy concept. 
 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by SCBills

[zow2]

There's definitely a WR problem,  but I agree that Allen has been way underperforming.  I don't care what the statistics say this year over last year.  He's sucked.  And the Oline had a bad game pass blocking vs Atlanta.  So in that game, Josh was bad, the Oline was bad and the WRs were bad/injured.

[Gregg]

Hurts has Brown and Smith

Burrow when healthy has Chase and Higgins

Dak has CEE-DEE and Pickens

Allen has what at the WR position that would be considered elite... NOTHING!!!

 

 

[vincec]

The running game is great and definitely takes pressure off Allen, but the key (as Olsen pointed out during Sunday’s game), is to generate big (20+ yard) plays. You aren’t going to consistently have 10+ play drives vs good defenses. The easiest way to get big plays is to be able to throw the ball downfield, which the Bills are struggling to do, and this is primarily because of the WRs, IMO. What’s really concerning to me is that running the ball as well as they do should tremendously help them throw the ball downfield, but it’s not.

Edited 2 hours ago by vincec

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Why do people want to convince themselves that a quality receiver isn't essential or even needed? Josh hasn't been great, but he will play better for sure, especially if Beane provides a lift to the offense in the form of a threat. The problem is obvious to the eye, secondaries are playing "downhill" against us. I remember some plays vs Atlanta, and even against Carolina, where I couldn't believe how fast the secondary was moving up and closing on the receiver routes. No fear at all!!

Edited 58 minutes ago by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[SectionC3]

5 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I’d contend that if our WR’s aren’t capable of doing things Allen is comfortable with, thus making him regress with the solution seeming to be forcing him into becoming a game manager, that it’s indeed a problem. 
 

We also don’t have the Defense, at least historically, to beat teams when it matters with ball control. 
 

This concept requires having a Defense that can hold an opposing QB below 30 in high leverage games. 
 

Also, Brady made mention of us only getting 8 drives per game.  The Offense is cognizant of the games being shortened and that surely leads to Allen pressing. 

Instead of all this soul searching and wanting Allen to be Brock Purdy, maybe we can just get him a WR… I know, crazy concept. 
 

 

This drives me nuts.  A guy I knew who was an assistant during the super bowl years told a story that Walt Corey would berate the offense for scoring too fast.  Seems like we’re getting back there with our self imposed governor on that side of the ball.  Run. More. Plays.  It drives me nuts. 

[SCBills]

2 minutes ago, Gregg said:

Hurts has Brown and Smith

Burrow when healthy has Chase and Higgins

Dak has CEE-DEE and Pickens

Allen has what at the WR position that would be considered elite... NOTHING!!!

 

 

Mahomes had Hill/Kelce

 

Then Kelce in his prime

 

Last year he struggled heavily with no Rice, Kelce down year and a receiver core similar to what we have, but got by with a strong Defense he could rely on
 

This year he’s back to having one of the better WR rooms in the AFC 

 

Allen had Diggs & Beasley for a few years and never a Defense he can count on when it matters 

 

But we want him to play now like he does..

[Roundybout]

I sorry, I can’t agree with this when you look at the film and advanced statistics that both show that our receivers simply cannot get open. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

27 minutes ago, Casey D said:

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/article_efc2cd6d-144e-48fd-91c2-2e1997a5017e.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=email&utm_campaign=user-share

 

Really interesting take.  He points out that the Bills have developed a much greater capacity to run the ball, which takes pressure off Allen.  Bills need to stick to formula to pound the football and not turn it over.  

 

On Allen and the receivers, several interesting points.  He points out that Allen's completion percentage is up from 2024 from 63.5% to 68%, and YPG up from 219 to 222. Biggest difference is he is taking more sacks and committing more turnovers.  As to receivers, defenses are playing soft man-to man coverage and giving receivers large cushions that no receiver can just blow by and go deep, but there is lots of underneath stuff there. He points to a third-and -1 where Allen throws to Coleman immediately for a first down as defender is over 5 yards off the Line giving Coleman big cushion.

 

He also points out Allen's footwork and accuracy sucked in the first half, and Trubisky is looking like a more competent backup.

 

Prognosis is that Bills/Allen still not playing great but certainly can if they stick to formula. Allen just needs to play a bit smarter, but the game against Carolina in second half was a good step forward from previous weeks.

 

Behind BN paywall.  

 

 

The analytics always point to success = explosive plays. I sort of wonder if Josh and the Bills hold to that same philosophy, which explains the constant big play hunting. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

9 minutes ago, First Round Bust said:

WGR AM show brought up an interesting point yesterday...historically thrwoing the long ball (touch, loft, accuracy) has not been one of Josh strenghts...a point I have made over the years as well..partly his fault, partly the WR issue...resulting the OC play-calling not having confidence in that play and talking himself out of it ??? flame on...    

I've said the same on multiple occasions. Usually leads to people responding to it with a video of him hitting a deep ball.

 

The thing is, in the videos it's always John Brown or Robert Foster catching them. The common theme there being that neither is on the roster. 

 

Now, I agree. He has always struggled on ball placement deep. What compounds the issue is that the Bills haven't made a priority of finding guys that are good deep ball trackers. 

 

I'd love to see one season where Josh has a guy that can absolutely blow past DBs deep. Get a guy like Shaheed where Josh can just lay it as deep as possible and the WR can run and go get it.

 

Unfortunately, I don't see it happening. At his season ending presser after (I believe) the 13 seconds game, Beane was asked about getting a WR with speed. He had this whole big response with him saying to the effect  of "We would love a guy with speed like Hill. But they don't grow on trees. If you guys know where I can find one let me know." Then a few years later he's got someone with legit game changing speed in Worthy sitting on the board when he picks. So, of course he trades out and grabs the human sloth in Coleman. 

 

In fact, I can't remember Beane ever taking a speedster WR. Even as a late round dart throw. Even back to his Carolina days, Benjamin and Funchess were the big WR picks. No speed. 

[SCBills]

Every time I see someone make the point that we have enough and just need Allen to play differently.  
 

This seems to be their solution:

 

[vincec]

10 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

This drives me nuts.  A guy I knew who was an assistant during the super bowl years told a story that Walt Corey would berate the offense for scoring too fast.  Seems like we’re getting back there with our self imposed governor on that side of the ball.  Run. More. Plays.  It drives me nuts. 

I’ve never been a big fan of the whole “complimentary football” concept.  I think the offense should be doing everything possible to score points and put as much pressure on the opposing team as possible. Hurry up offense; 5 WR sets; whatever works. Stopping the other offense is not their problem, IMO.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

There’s definitely truth to both sides…bills need a receiver and most people underestimate what a good running game can do/take it for granted..  it’s definitely hyperbole to phrase it as ‘bills don’t have a receiver problem’ though lol like I get they value heavier sets/receivers that can block well but you need to be getting at least some juice out of these guys in the passing game 

 

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[The Jokeman]

21 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I’d contend that if our WR’s aren’t capable of doing things Allen is comfortable with, thus making him regress with the solution seeming to be forcing him into becoming a game manager, that it’s indeed a problem. 
 

We also don’t have the Defense, at least historically, to beat teams when it matters with ball control. 
 

This concept requires having a Defense that can hold an opposing QB below 30 in high leverage games. 
 

Also, Brady made mention of us only getting 8 drives per game.  The Offense is cognizant of the games being shortened and that surely leads to Allen pressing. 

Instead of all this soul searching and wanting Allen to be Brock Purdy, maybe we can just get him a WR… I know, crazy concept. 
 

 

Crazier concept, Shanny offense with Purdy like QBs have gotten to more Super Bowls than we have.  So as great a player Josh is maybe he part of the problem we've had getting there especially if not playing within the system we've created. Granted we just scored 40 points with that system so it does have some good points despite JA17 less than stellar stats this past week. 

Edited 2 hours ago by The Jokeman

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, The Jokeman said:

Crazier concept, Shanny offense with Purdy like QBs have gotten to more Super Bowls than we have. 

We’d have multiple SB appearances if not for KC. 

[The Jokeman]

2 minutes ago, vincec said:

I’ve never been a big fan of the whole “complimentary football” concept.  I think the offense should be doing everything possible to score points and put as much pressure on the opposing team as possible. Hurry up offense; 5 WR sets; whatever works. Stopping the other offense is not their problem, IMO.

Were you around for the 90s teams? As anyone who was should recognize that high flying offenses can be stopped and when they do your defense has to be even better to allow you to win. Give me a strong opposition that can stop the opposition every time over the latter. 

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

We’d have multiple SB appearances if not for KC. 

and KC has been able to stop us on our last drive the last two times we've been eliminated from the playoffs. Yes, Josh played great in those games but he still wasn't good enough. and no I'm not giving the defense a pass but hey if your defense not playing it's best than the offense has to play even better to win.