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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, billsfan89 said:

 

The Bills are usually very good at managing their dead cap. From 2019-2023 the Bills were bottom 10 if not bottom 5 most years on dead cap. 2024 it spiked up due to the house cleaning they did on the roster but this year the Bills rank 21st or 11th lowest in dead cap just outside the top 10 lowest dead cap numbers. And that's with the Bills eating a lot of money on Von and Tre's old contract both combining to about 19 million in dead cap. 

 

The Bills do figure to in 2026 be taking probably a similar dead cap hit in terms of cap percentage as they are this year (around 35ish million) largely due to void years from Milano and Bosa (totaling 18 million) and some other smaller void years from AJE and McGovern (Combining for another 7.5 million). Those 4 void years will total 25ish million. Add about another 10 million on cuts like Samuel (3 million in dead cap) and a few other smaller cuts and you get to around 35 million. 

 

You obviously don't want large void years eating up 10% of your cap but the Bills needed to get out from under a large Diggs and out from under a can kicked down the road on Von. Afterwards you then also have some other vets to clear out but I think the Bills largely should be in a decent place regarding dead cap going forward. 

I’m going to admit I’m at times an emotional poster- and things I post sometimes are not correct so no-issues with the correction here at all and welcome it - so thank you

Just Letting my frustration of where the organization is get in the way of clarity and fact checking myself 

Edited by BlazinBill
  • Like (+1) 1
Posted
1 hour ago, billsfan89 said:

 

The Bills are usually very good at managing their dead cap. From 2019-2023 the Bills were bottom 10 if not bottom 5 most years on dead cap. 2024 it spiked up due to the house cleaning they did on the roster but this year the Bills rank 21st or 11th lowest in dead cap just outside the top 10 lowest dead cap numbers. And that's with the Bills eating a lot of money on Von and Tre's old contract both combining to about 19 million in dead cap. 

 

The Bills do figure to in 2026 be taking probably a similar dead cap hit in terms of cap percentage as they are this year (around 35ish million) largely due to void years from Milano and Bosa (totaling 18 million) and some other smaller void years from AJE and McGovern (Combining for another 7.5 million). Those 4 void years will total 25ish million. Add about another 10 million on cuts like Samuel (3 million in dead cap) and a few other smaller cuts and you get to around 35 million. 

 

You obviously don't want large void years eating up 10% of your cap but the Bills needed to get out from under a large Diggs and out from under a can kicked down the road on Von. Afterwards you then also have some other vets to clear out but I think the Bills largely should be in a decent place regarding dead cap going forward. 

So the last Diggs contract and the Von contract were two huge investments that the Bills are still paying off, with very little return. Blame aside, both contracts were objectively mistakes, hobbling the organization during prime Allen years. 

 

I just haven't heard that stated concisely before. I hope it's not the epitaph on Allen's career. 

Posted
54 minutes ago, dpberr said:

I agree with Howard Simon's opinion that the organization's only goal should be to win a Super Bowl this year.  You have a new stadium opening up next year, a star quarterback who's 29, and you don't want to ride into it on a demoralizing 2025 season.  What is this organization waiting for?  

 

I fear Brandon Beane's FO and Terry Pegula feel quite differently.   I think the Bills formula makes for good teams, but a Super Bowl appearance takes extraordinary steps the Rams and Eagles, for example, executed in their SB runs.  

 

The FO prioritzes *reaching* the playoffs every year, and on a very tactical level, "winning" every single trade they execute.   You can't get impact players for free.

 

Terry Pegula very likely does not want to saddle the next owners (likely his daughter) with a situation similarly to what the Eagles are doing, with the massive credit card debt of circa-2025 salaries to be paid by future Bills teams (and owner.)

 

 

Bingo!

Posted

Time for the conspiracy theory angle: Beane and McD realize they backed themselves into a corner. They have mismanaged the salary cap and yes, Jeremy White was right, failed to get a playmaker WR. Given the current roster, they realize that, lacking cap space or any serious cap magic, they know they can’t get that difference making WR or DT to get the Bills a SB win this year. So, use the flood of injuries as an excuse and quietly play for a 2026 reload. We all know how Beane loves his cupboard of draft picks and thinks he is always smarter than the rest of the League in drafting for players in Round 1. He will fix everything “next year”. Let’s see how this plays out if we get handed our heads by KC this weekend. Happy Halloween!

Posted

So the Bills have a lot of injured guys at a position.  The GM brings in several guys for a look with I presume the D line coach, position coach, DC and HC, and they pick a guy who will likely be on the practice squad if needed.  A guy none of us really have heard of.  Yet Beane gets blasted as if he could have reached out and gotten another guy the caliber of Ed Oliver at the drop of a hat.

 

What the hell is wrong with some people?  For me I am looking hopefully for a WR trade.  But to jump on this DT stuff is silly.

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Posted
1 hour ago, dpberr said:

I agree with Howard Simon's opinion that the organization's only goal should be to win a Super Bowl this year.  You have a new stadium opening up next year, a star quarterback who's 29, and you don't want to ride into it on a demoralizing 2025 season.  What is this organization waiting for?  

 

I fear Brandon Beane's FO and Terry Pegula feel quite differently.   I think the Bills formula makes for good teams, but a Super Bowl appearance takes extraordinary steps the Rams and Eagles, for example, executed in their SB runs.  

 

The FO prioritzes *reaching* the playoffs every year, and on a very tactical level, "winning" every single trade they execute.   You can't get impact players for free.

 

Terry Pegula very likely does not want to saddle the next owners (likely his daughter) with a situation similarly to what the Eagles are doing, with the massive credit card debt of circa-2025 salaries to be paid by future Bills teams (and owner.)

 

They want to win a SB, but their way is the hill they'll die on to do it.  

 

Maybe Terry is ignorant and just taking what the GM is telling him.  Wouldn't surprise me, yet at the same time Beane had a horrible off-season.  He signed not 1, but 2 suspended players, went on a tirade on WGR that gained national attention about the lack of WRs, and now the season unfolds with the WR issue glaring and a defense struggling.  You'd think that would prompt a move that elevates this team offensively.  

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Posted
29 minutes ago, finn said:

So the last Diggs contract and the Von contract were two huge investments that the Bills are still paying off, with very little return. Blame aside, both contracts were objectively mistakes, hobbling the organization during prime Allen years. 

 

I just haven't heard that stated concisely before. I hope it's not the epitaph on Allen's career. 

 

The Diggs money they are out from under on, Von after this season they are out from under on. Teams eat dead money all the time, KC has consistently had a dead cap around 15-22 million a year. The Bills have been fairly comparable in terms of dead cap outside of 2024. From 2019 to 2023 the Bills dead cap numbers were in the 12-22 million range mostly in line with KC. 2025 the Bills at 30 million dead cap are a bit higher but still mostly a good healthy number by NFL standards. 

 

I think both contracts were attempts by the Bills to keep going for it under Allen. Von I didn't like as much at the time because he was older but it looked like it could have worked had he not gotten hurt on a somewhat freak injury. Diggs they extended him in his late 20's after back to back great seasons. It kept him happy in 2022 when he helped carry an offense that outside of him and Josh didn't have much (poor RT and guard play along the O-line, lackluster TE and WR's outside of Diggs, and RB's that were pedestrian) and then in 2023 he got hurt after a hot start. The Bills were still able to get a 2nd round pick worth of value for him in a trade so it isn't a big deal esp since the team improved in the year they were getting out from under that deal. 

 

Von's deal being reworked in 2024 made the out in 2025 less bad. But I don't think that the Bills fortunes in 2025 are that much more dramatically shifted if they had 7-9 million more in cap space to work with. I don't think they make a trade for DK if they have a moderate amount more space to work with. The WR's signed above Palmer weren't that great outside of Devante Adams whose 13 million more than Palmer AAV on 2 seasons (with a large 14 million dollar dead cap hit for 2026). 

 

I don't think those deals are the sole reasons for Josh not winning. I think it has been a combo of a lot of things, some on the roster building side, some on just the luck side of things, some to do with coaching and coaching decisions. 

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Posted
14 hours ago, Roundybout said:


 

 

 

Not sure if it’s PS or not. 7th rounder for Dallas this past draft but was cut in August. Also spent time on the Carolina practice squad. 
 

6-foot-3, 320 pounds, played college ball at Maryland. 

This man is in desperate need of a nick name. Come on, TBD. This is your bread & butter.

Posted
4 hours ago, dpberr said:

I agree with Howard Simon's opinion that the organization's only goal should be to win a Super Bowl this year.  You have a new stadium opening up next year, a star quarterback who's 29, and you don't want to ride into it on a demoralizing 2025 season.  What is this organization waiting for?  

 

I fear Brandon Beane's FO and Terry Pegula feel quite differently.   I think the Bills formula makes for good teams, but a Super Bowl appearance takes extraordinary steps the Rams and Eagles, for example, executed in their SB runs.  

 

The FO prioritzes *reaching* the playoffs every year, and on a very tactical level, "winning" every single trade they execute.   You can't get impact players for free.

 

Terry Pegula very likely does not want to saddle the next owners (likely his daughter) with a situation similarly to what the Eagles are doing, with the massive credit card debt of circa-2025 salaries to be paid by future Bills teams (and owner.)

 

 

I want to know why we didn't go after the guy the Bengals just cut who fled back to KC. Did we even make an offer?

Posted
1 hour ago, billsfan89 said:

 

The Diggs money they are out from under on, Von after this season they are out from under on. Teams eat dead money all the time, KC has consistently had a dead cap around 15-22 million a year. The Bills have been fairly comparable in terms of dead cap outside of 2024. From 2019 to 2023 the Bills dead cap numbers were in the 12-22 million range mostly in line with KC. 2025 the Bills at 30 million dead cap are a bit higher but still mostly a good healthy number by NFL standards. 

 

I think both contracts were attempts by the Bills to keep going for it under Allen. Von I didn't like as much at the time because he was older but it looked like it could have worked had he not gotten hurt on a somewhat freak injury. Diggs they extended him in his late 20's after back to back great seasons. It kept him happy in 2022 when he helped carry an offense that outside of him and Josh didn't have much (poor RT and guard play along the O-line, lackluster TE and WR's outside of Diggs, and RB's that were pedestrian) and then in 2023 he got hurt after a hot start. The Bills were still able to get a 2nd round pick worth of value for him in a trade so it isn't a big deal esp since the team improved in the year they were getting out from under that deal. 

 

Von's deal being reworked in 2024 made the out in 2025 less bad. But I don't think that the Bills fortunes in 2025 are that much more dramatically shifted if they had 7-9 million more in cap space to work with. I don't think they make a trade for DK if they have a moderate amount more space to work with. The WR's signed above Palmer weren't that great outside of Devante Adams whose 13 million more than Palmer AAV on 2 seasons (with a large 14 million dollar dead cap hit for 2026). 

 

I don't think those deals are the sole reasons for Josh not winning. I think it has been a combo of a lot of things, some on the roster building side, some on just the luck side of things, some to do with coaching and coaching decisions

Thanks for the detailed response. Certainly there have been a lot of other factors that have led to the current state of affairs, and both contracts looked like good moves at the time, or at least defensible. I'm just taking the long view, trying to get a handle on how we're going to look back on the Allen era. I hope it will be fondly, with all the Super Bowls he will have won. But even in that rosy future we might rue the "missed" years of 2021-2025 when they could thisclose to going to the Show, if only they had x, with that x being the players they could have signed in 2022 instead of Von and Diggs. I won't play the game of "they could have signed this guy," but I think it's fair to say that Beane could have improved on the yield from those two contracts, even with Von's reduction and the second-round pick for Diggs. Could've been should've been. It is what it is. 

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Posted
3 hours ago, LittleSammy said:

Time for the conspiracy theory angle: Beane and McD realize they backed themselves into a corner. They have mismanaged the salary cap and yes, Jeremy White was right, failed to get a playmaker WR. Given the current roster, they realize that, lacking cap space or any serious cap magic, they know they can’t get that difference making WR or DT to get the Bills a SB win this year. So, use the flood of injuries as an excuse and quietly play for a 2026 reload. We all know how Beane loves his cupboard of draft picks and thinks he is always smarter than the rest of the League in drafting for players in Round 1. He will fix everything “next year”. Let’s see how this plays out if we get handed our heads by KC this weekend. Happy Halloween!

 

 

That is certainly a possibility.   And it would be easy to look at the dominant 2024 Eagles team and think there is no way this flawed Bills roster can win a SB.

 

But each year is different.

 

The 1989 49ers are in the conversation of greatest, most talented and dominant teams ever.   The 1990 Giants......unfortunately for us......are on the other end of that spectrum.  Not a very impressive roster and.....in the current vernacular....very "game script" dependent.  McDermott himself ended up on the losing end in a SB versus a team with a washed up QB who threw more INT's than TD's that year.  If you have a punch sometimes that has proven to be enough.  And with, at least statistically, the best run game in the NFL and JA that's probably enough punch if things fall VERY favorably.  

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Posted
14 minutes ago, finn said:

Thanks for the detailed response. Certainly there have been a lot of other factors that have led to the current state of affairs, and both contracts looked like good moves at the time, or at least defensible. I'm just taking the long view, trying to get a handle on how we're going to look back on the Allen era. I hope it will be fondly, with all the Super Bowls he will have won. But even in that rosy future we might rue the "missed" years of 2021-2025 when they could thisclose to going to the Show, if only they had x, with that x being the players they could have signed in 2022 instead of Von and Diggs. I won't play the game of "they could have signed this guy," but I think it's fair to say that Beane could have improved on the yield from those two contracts, even with Von's reduction and the second-round pick for Diggs. Could've been should've been. It is what it is. 

 

I agree what you are saying that there's going to be big draft picks, free agency signings, and other roster construction avenues that we look back on and say these were the reasons that the team couldn't get over the hump. But I also think that you can't just look at things in a vacuum or act like there aren't many reasons why teams have or lack success beyond a handful of even big roster moves. We will just have to hope that the roster can continue to be built up around Josh and they get the luck they need as well. 

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