Joe B (The Athletic) on passing game problems (with data)

[Pete]

15 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

 

I think Brady has Allen all screwed up. 

This is my theory.  And thats why Josh seems to be miserable.  Grandma calls Josh to remind him to smile?  Thats the polar opposite of Golden Retriever Josh that we love and know.  I believe Josh is extremely frustrated with Joes dink and dunk, game manager offence.  I think hes frustrated when no WR is open for 11 seconds.  I think  he beaten up from the ZPats and Falcons.  And I think Josh knows the answers, but he is a good soldier, and does what hes told, even though hes often in a no win situation 

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Moore is supposed to get the ball on that play

 

I think you've described the play accurately. Watch Allen's feet. He sets his feet to fake the throw on the screen, then he resets to look downfield. Shavers is covered AND the safety has turned to go that way, too. Allen resets his feet a third time, just as he was taught, to be in position to throw to Moore, but almost immediately resets to find the outlet in the left flat. It's a mistake by Allen. His feet do what he's supposed to do, but his brain doesn't. The play design is if he doesn't have the throw to Shavers, he's supposed to come off Shavers and find Moore. He knows he has Moore in single coverage because he's just seen the safety break to help on Shavers. He sets his feet to make the throw to Moore and then comes off it almost immediately. The play is designed for him to make one of three choices - Shavers, Moore, Davis. He had Moore and rushed right through the choice. 

 

I definitely do not agree that Moore was open when Allen got his eyes there. Especially with a pass rusher in his face that would have been a crazy difficult throw. And I can guarantee you this coaching staff does not want Allen making that throw. They want him playing it safe until absolutely necessary.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

12 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

The "Blame Josh" crowd has entered the chat with renewed vigor this week.  

 

Gonna be interesting when Beane humbles himself, trades for a WR, and the offense returns to effectiveness.   

I'd be shocked, honestly. Means you bench Palmer or Coleman. If they trade for a WR and bench Coleman, that could signal they've given up on him and I'm not sure they have. 
 

WR4 is the only spot I can see. 

[Shaw66]

One other thing about all of this. It's interesting and instructive that we're talking about the offense, particularly the passing game, after a 40-9 blowout win. 

 

Why is it interesting and instructive?  Because we're all seeing the same thing, even against the Panthers: The offense is not very effective. Bills were winning 6-0 in a game where in most seasons it would have been 14-0. We're seeing Josh, look confused and get sacked. We're seeing bad throws, missed open receivers. We've seen the Bills lose two games where they gave up 23 and 24 points; in each game the offense was ineffective, and the Bills lost more because they couldn't score than because the defense let them down. It's been pretty ugly. 

 

Take away the gaping holes the Panthers kept giving up in the run game and a couple of big defensive plays, and the Bills would have found themselves in another tight game. 

 

Something has to change.  

[TheyCallMeAndy]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

One other thing about all of this. It's interesting and instructive that we're talking about the offense, particularly the passing game, after a 40-9 blowout win. 

 

Why is it interesting and instructive?  Because we're all seeing the same thing, even against the Panthers: The offense is not very effective. Bills were winning 6-0 in a game where in most seasons it would have been 14-0. We're seeing Josh, look confused and get sacked. We're seeing bad throws, missed open receivers. We've seen the Bills lose two games where they gave up 23 and 24 points; in each game the offense was ineffective, and the Bills lost more because they couldn't score than because the defense let them down. It's been pretty ugly. 

 

Take away the gaping holes the Panthers kept giving up in the run game and a couple of big defensive plays, and the Bills would have found themselves in another tight game. 

 

Something has to change.  

Worth noting, it's not like Brady and Dorsey were bargain bin OCs. Their resumes were legitimate.
 

Not sure what the answer is, and I can't help but find myself being critical of Beane when I think about it. 

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I definitely do not agree that Moore was open when Allen got his eyes there. Especially with a pass rusher in his face that would have been a crazy difficult throw. And I can guarantee you this coaching staff does not want Allen making that throw. They want him playing it safe until absolutely necessary.

I don't agree. Allen didn't even stop to consider the throw to Moore. He moved his feet to be in position to throw to him and immediately moved his feet in order to make an off-balance throw to Davis. If the Bills don't want him making that throw, then I'll say more emphatically, the Bills need a new offensive coordinator. As I said earlier, Mahomes makes that throw to JuJu, and Andy Reid wants it all day. 

[Buffalo ill]

It's time for a billboard to call out McBean.

[BillsVet]

15 minutes ago, Brand J said:

I mean, he does shoulder a lot of the blame, he hasn’t played well. If he hit some of these receivers who have been open, I suspect the WR crowd wouldn’t be as loud. Josh doesn’t shoulder all the blame, of course, but he’s not reading the field well or trusting what he sees. His accuracy and ball placement has also been off. We can say “it’s everyone else’s fault,” but Josh simply has to play better and he’d tell you the same. 

 

He shoulders the blame to surface-analysis types who don't try to understand cause.  I've never said he's without fault, because he is.

 

Yet, I see an offense which schematically works only when specific conditions are met, namely that the opponent is bad to average, their run defense is poor, and downfield throws aren't as necessary.  I see a GM who thinks you can throw a hodgepodge of WRs out there.  A HC who is a neanderthal on offense and thinks all of this should work every week.  

 

4 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

I'd be shocked, honestly. Means you bench Palmer or Coleman. If they trade for a WR and bench Coleman, that could signal they've given up on him and I'm not sure they have. 
 

WR4 is the only spot I can see. 

 

Coleman offers almost nothing to this offense and, despite the off-season narratives, is not producing.  Or, he always needed more time to acclimate to the pro game and they couldn't provide that because Beane has never prioritized developing the WR position.

 

Bottom line is before you get to the QB's play, start with a comprehensive analysis about roster strategy, the HC's input to that, Beane's acquisitionss, and Brady's game-planning.  When those are good, I suspect Josh will be a lot better.  

[Norcalbillsfan]

5 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

If a trade for a wideout isnt announced today by 4pm its already too late.    They will not beat the Chiefs with no passing game. 

No jones or Oliver on the D alone makes things difficult on the bills against the Chiefs and now with the passing game sputtering its a bad recipe.

 

Spags will not allow cook to do what he did to the panthers. I would imagine the chiefs will sell out on stopping the run and challenge the recievers to win 1 on 1. Unfortunately the identity the bills currently have favors the chiefs. If the chiefs can slow down cook early and score quickly on the slower and depleted secondary of the bills it could get out of hand.

 

Unless the offense finds a rhythm between now and then I think things will fall heavily on the bills edge rush getting to mahomes and hairston being able to play the entire game. With white just not having the physical abilities he used too and giving wrs massive cushion against andy Reid and mahomes doesn't seem like its even an option at this point.

[Buffalo716]

18 minutes ago, Pete said:

This is my theory.  And thats why Josh seems to be miserable.  Grandma calls Josh to remind him to smile?  Thats the polar opposite of Golden Retriever Josh that we love and know.  I believe Josh is extremely frustrated with Joes dink and dunk, game manager offence.  I think hes frustrated when no WR is open for 11 seconds.  I think  he beaten up from the ZPats and Falcons.  And I think Josh knows the answers, but he is a good soldier, and does what hes told, even though hes often in a no win situation 

Tom Brady always said when you're the best you have to take control 

 

He said he was consistently in every single meeting room with the coaches putting together game plans even helping the defense 

 

Josh can take control of the entire team if he's doing that.. how do we know he's already not

 

He should be

Edited 2 hours ago by Buffalo716

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

If the Bills don't want him making that throw, then I'll say more emphatically, the Bills need a new offensive coordinator.

 

I guess. I've criticized this regime plenty for neutering what makes Allen special but I don't know that even I want Allen to make that throw in that moment. Moore has a poor catch radius and his CB has good leverage to break on the catch. Allen would have to tag that directly to his chest 30 yards downfield with pressure in his face, and even then I think it gets broken up. If that's AJ Brown sure I want him making that throw. Check down is the right option here, he just misses the throw.

[Buffalo716]

To be fair high School teams throw 19 times 

 

That's not in nearly enough for a quarterback and wide receivers to get into a groove.. especially at the NFL level where everybody is so talented 

 

 running backs typically always get better after 10 carries.. quarterbacks and wide receivers also need to get into the groove of the game 

 

The field is condensed because we're handing off the ball and not letting Josh get into a rhythm... So everything is within 7 8 9 years of the line of scrimmage because that's the easiest throws when you're not in a rhythm

 

It's hard to hit a 20 yard throw in the NFL when you have zero rhythm just like he missed his deep out yesterday..   he makes that throw typically when he's feeling good

 

Remember Justin Fields just played in NFL game where he threw for like two yards a couple weeks ago lol when you're not in a rhythm it's hard to look good even if you're the best

 

 Josh is always been a guy who needed to get into the flow of a game throwing 19 times is kind of a hard play style for him.. especially when he's not getting the best separation...

 

Yet at the end of the Baltimore game he clearly was in sync because he was throwing 30 plus times

Edited 2 hours ago by Buffalo716

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I guess. I've criticized this regime plenty for neutering what makes Allen special but I don't know that even I want Allen to make that throw in that moment. Moore has a poor catch radius and his CB has good leverage to break on the catch. Allen would have to tag that directly to his chest 30 yards downfield with pressure in his face, and even then I think it gets broken up. If that's AJ Brown sure I want him making that throw. Check down is the right option here, he just misses the throw.

FWIW, I thought Davis caught that pass and that the Bills would have won a challenge. It wasn't a sure thing, though, and it was too meager of a gain to waste a challenge on.

Edited 2 hours ago by dave mcbride

[TheyCallMeAndy]

5 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

He shoulders the blame to surface-analysis types who don't try to understand cause.  I've never said he's without fault, because he is.

 

Yet, I see an offense which schematically works only when specific conditions are met, namely that the opponent is bad to average, their run defense is poor, and downfield throws aren't as necessary.  I see a GM who thinks you can throw a hodgepodge of WRs out there.  A HC who is a neanderthal on offense and thinks all of this should work every week.  

 

 

Coleman offers almost nothing to this offense and, despite the off-season narratives, is not producing.  Or, he always needed more time to acclimate to the pro game and they couldn't provide that because Beane has never prioritized developing the WR position.

 

Bottom line is before you get to the QB's play, start with a comprehensive analysis about roster strategy, the HC's input to that, Beane's acquisitionss, and Brady's game-planning.  When those are good, I suspect Josh will be a lot better.  

I 100% agree with you. To me, it's no coincidence that our best passing game came when we had actual investments in WR. That's just common sene.

 

The offense is built on the potential of Palmer, Coleman, and Kincaid. Allen only seems to trust one of those men so far. 
 

I just don't know if the Bills would bench Coleman so soon, but I think he's been a disappointment to the team on and off the field. Beane's ego is also riding on this, after his little tirade this summer. To trade for a WR would be to admit he was wrong. 
 

Fascinating to see if he'd do it. 

[Jimmy Harris 69]

The Bills passing game is sub-standard. This falls on Brady and McDermott; Brady for his simplistic concepts, and Sean for watching the bus crashing but taking no action. This offense looks like ground Chuck (Knox). That guy never won a championship with that formula.

[blacklabel]

Yeah that's definitely not ideal. I'm also on the "try throwing it to Jimmy sometimes" bandwagon as he has been targeted exactly 0 times in the last two games. 

 

It's weird because with Dorsey's offense, the passing game was centered around more intermediate and longer routes that they would hit on for 15, 20, 25 yards or whatever, but they never generated a lot of YAC in that scheme. 

 

Now the pendulum has swung in the complete opposite direction. They can hit on all these shorter throws near the LOS and create some solid YAC, some of those plays even break loose for a big score (like Shakir has done twice this season). But now they can't hit anything down the field with a QB who has a rocket for a right arm and excels at those kinds of throws. I mean, it's awesome how he's improved a lot on the short stuff and that should certainly have a place in their system but right now it's just really unbalanced with the short stuff being somewhat successful and the down field stuff being nearly non-existent. 

[BillytheKid]

20 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't agree. Allen didn't even stop to consider the throw to Moore. He moved his feet to be in position to throw to him and immediately moved his feet in order to make an off-balance throw to Davis. If the Bills don't want him making that throw, then I'll say more emphatically, the Bills need a new offensive coordinator. As I said earlier, Mahomes makes that throw to JuJu, and Andy Reid wants it all day. 

Sorry, but disagree as well, Moore wasn’t open on that play. Not sure what you are seeing. But to each his own I guess. 

[The Frankish Reich]

My cheap/realistic trade target:

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4569559/devaughn-vele

 

Flashed a bit as a Bronco. 6'5", seems to be able to get open. Broncos WR room was (as we're seeing) loaded. Traded him to the Saints, where he is a victim of terrible QBing. Late bloomer because he did a Mormon mission. 

[HappyDays]

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

FWIW, I thought Davis caught that pass and that the Bills would have won a challenge. It wasn't a sure thing, though, and it was too meager of a gain to waste a challenge on.

 

Yeah anyways a better throw would have given him a chance to run after the catch and probably pick up like 5 yards.

[RoyBatty is alive]

6 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

If a trade for a wideout isnt announced today by 4pm its already too late.    They will not beat the Chiefs with no passing game. 

10 minutes to go and no trade.

 

I guess that means you wont be watching because the Bills "will not beat the Chiefs".

 

There perpetual drama queens here.