Joe B (The Athletic) on passing game problems (with data)

[MikePJ76]

Here are a couple more plays that I think could have been completions.  Feels like a lot of little things that are changing drives.  HItting a few of these I think will change some things.

This first one is tough because the edge is free and unblocked.  May be an impossible throw but once again coleman is running across the field left to right open.

 

this one I really do not understand why allen is looking short to long.  Moore is open all the way through this, this imo should be a TD.  Throw the ball to moore before he makes his break and this seems like a simple TD and I bet moore would have looked really wide open.  Just didn't pull the trigger because it appears he is going short to long in his read.  Even if he hits Davis with a clean throw he may score if he makes the guy miss.  

 

[Pete]

1 minute ago, BillytheKid said:

That’s false. They obviously don’t know what they are talking about.

 

Allen is 2nd in MVP odds to Mahomes right now. Maye has moved into 3rd place now though. He is making a big leap. 

Mayes throws intermediate and deep throws.  Is it the coordinator or the QB?  Me thinks it’s the play design 

[BillytheKid]

1 minute ago, Pete said:

Mayes throws intermediate and deep throws.  Is it the coordinator or the QB?  Me thinks it’s the play design 

It’s the coordinator but I have said this since last year.

 

Last year Allen mostly won the MVP because he didn’t turn the ball over and the Bills won games after losing Diggs. 
 

His numbers last year were his worst numbers for passing yards and total TD’s except for maybe his rookie year. 
 

Brady doesn’t use Allen as well as he could in my opinion. He has neutered him even more this year. Part of it is the receivers and letting Coleman get as many snaps as he does. 
 

People can say Coleman is open sometimes and Allen doesn’t throw him the ball but Coleman has dropped a few balls this year as well. 
 

It’s mainly Brady. 

[extrahammer]

To me, Josh has been off and it's more than just the responsibility of Keon Coleman. He's making throws that are off-target that he normally doesn't throw off-target. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

2 hours ago, WotAGuy said:

Everybody wanted YAC a couple years ago. Now, that’s all they have available. 

herein lies the answer. Best way to beat tight man coverage with receivers who can’t get separation: quick rhythm stuff in space. Would be perfect for guys like Samuel and Moore too. 

[Allen2Moulds]

3 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

Here are a couple more plays that I think could have been completions.  Feels like a lot of little things that are changing drives.  HItting a few of these I think will change some things.

This first one is tough because the edge is free and unblocked.  May be an impossible throw but once again coleman is running across the field left to right open.

 

this one I really do not understand why allen is looking short to long.  Moore is open all the way through this, this imo should be a TD.  Throw the ball to moore before he makes his break and this seems like a simple TD and I bet moore would have looked really wide open.  Just didn't pull the trigger because it appears he is going short to long in his read.  Even if he hits Davis with a clean throw he may score if he makes the guy miss.  

 

I don't know, I have to respectfully disagree. On that 1st one, the DB is in good trail position to make a pbu. The second one, was no doubt a bad throw. I've noticed a few times a disconnect between Moore and Josh. I think Josh threw it where he expected him to be.

 

The other thing I'm not seeing much of in these videos are clear outs. Multiple receivers running into the same zone, to put the defender into conflict.

[Ya Digg?]

3 hours ago, Pete said:

Aggressive stupidity I call it.  When someone yells angrily and is completely wrong

That’s weird, isn’t that the same definition for the game day thread or the Monday after a loss? 

[GoBills808]

43 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

just as an example, Here are two plays from yesterday where Josh could have given Coleman the ball with easy throws.  He went to hawes on the play action and threw it deep for no reason to shavers.  Coleman is open on both plays and if he gets the ball he probably makes nice plays there.  Little plays like this add up.  I think he should be given opportunties like these.

 

Here is the play action that went to hawes.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=ExuPj1d502A&feature=youtu.be

 

and here is the curl route where coleman looks pretty open and then after the scramble is even more open.  He never gets the ball.

 

 

on the first clip that play is drawn up for Hawes and Hawes only

 

it's not even a two level concept because Shakir isn't even interested in finishing his route lol

 

in general when you have a rollout any receiver behind the QB is not an option

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Sweats said:

If teams took away Cook and forced us to beat them with our passing game, could we do it with our active roster?!?

We all know it's a huge NO........why does our FO not see this?

 

It's only a matter of time before teams take Cook out of the equation and force us to play the passing game and i'm not confident that we can do it with who we have on the roster presently.

Feel like we saw that with our two losses already this year, right

[CookieG]

2 hours ago, JMM said:

I think Beane is a very good GM. And most of the " experts " and  also his peers in the league agree. But to not have addressed the #1 WR since the trade if Diggs by now is maddening at the least. He had sooo many chances in the draft and FA and trade market and just didn't get it done. With a future HOF qb I simply am astounded by this 

I think he's a good GM too, and the record backs this up.  

 

But he's not a good evaluator of WR talent.  People can't be everything.  

 

But what he needed to do, several years ago, was to bring in a true WR guru to his scouting dept.  A person who knows a good WR from a bad one.  One who can say, "et me look around, just stay out of my way".

 

It was known since his fist year here, when he traded a 3rd round pick for Kelvin Benjamin.  To me, it was bolstered when he used a 1st round pick for Diggs.  It was a way of saying, "I can't find one in the draft, I need to trade for one".  Personally, i thought that was a good decision.

 

The Shakir pick was more of an outlier and more of a case of a guy falling into his lap than it was finding a diamond in the rough.  I remember watching Senior Bowl practices, watching the CB's and saying "who is this Shakir guy, no one can cover him".  Damn, even i knew he  was going to provide something to the table.

 

I saw last year's draft as missing a golden opportunity on a very good draft class. It was the wrong pick on the wrong player and the wrong philosophy. 

 

There is no shame in understanding your strengths and weakness. 

 

And wr evaluation is a weakness for him.  So bring in someone to help who has that talent as a strength. 

 

 

 

 

[MikePJ76]

Just now, Allen2Moulds said:

I don't know, I have to respectfully disagree. On that 1st one, the DB is in good trail position to make a pbu. The second one, was no doubt a bad throw. I've noticed a few times a disconnect between Moore and Josh. I think Josh threw it where he expected him to be.

 

The other thing I'm not seeing much of in these videos are clear outs. Multiple receivers running into the same zone, to put the defender into conflict.

Are you talking about the plays in the video?  The second one is not even thrown to moore.

 

The second one josh had three wide open targets, Shakir is open off the play action with a blocker in front, josh didn't throw it.  He had moore for an easy TD here.  This is imo a perfect play call.  Moore has the inside and there is no safety help.  Josh just held the ball.  then he threw it late and short to Davis who was also open.

 

I also think he could have fired it in their to shavers right away between the corner and safety if he wanted to.

[Sweats]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Feel like we saw that with our two losses already this year, right

 

 

 

 

Be prepared for it to happen every game, until Brady puts together a solid passing plan.......and maybe getting a decent WR wouldn't hurt.

[Lost]

20 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Yesterday our OC said we don’t need to throw passes downfield to be dynamic. 

 

Bubble screens to Shakir behind the LOS all season isn't going to cut it.  

[Allen2Moulds]

6 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

Are you talking about the plays in the video?  The second one is not even thrown to moore.

 

The second one josh had three wide open targets, Shakir is open off the play action with a blocker in front, josh didn't throw it.  He had moore for an easy TD here.  This is imo a perfect play call.  Moore has the inside and there is no safety help.  Josh just held the ball.  then he threw it late and short to Davis who was also open.

 

I also think he could have fired it in their to shavers right away between the corner and safety if he wanted to.

In watching again, there are some open guys. I don't know what the heck Josh was thinking or doing on that one. I'm watching on my phone, so its hard to make out, but the underneath screen is def available. If moore is the deep one on the bottom of the screen, there was also def a window there before the safety closes it.

Josh right now is not very decisive or confident. I do think that all the blitzes and hits from the NE and Atlanta game, messed up his internal clock.

[Tim Tindale]

3 hours ago, Pete said:

That’s my hope.  Grassroots Mafia movement.  We need WRs and we need intermediate and deep passes.  If if Beane can’t provide a quality WR asap, and/or if Brady can’t start designing passes longer than 4 yards- get a new GM and Coordinator asap IMO 

#FreeJosh

[Shaw66]

23 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

Here are a couple more plays that I think could have been completions.  Feels like a lot of little things that are changing drives.  HItting a few of these I think will change some things.

This first one is tough because the edge is free and unblocked.  May be an impossible throw but once again coleman is running across the field left to right open.

 

this one I really do not understand why allen is looking short to long.  Moore is open all the way through this, this imo should be a TD.  Throw the ball to moore before he makes his break and this seems like a simple TD and I bet moore would have looked really wide open.  Just didn't pull the trigger because it appears he is going short to long in his read.  Even if he hits Davis with a clean throw he may score if he makes the guy miss.  

 

These are both good examples.  

 

I think Josh's decision making has taken a big step backward this season. I don't know if it's Josh or how he's being preparing. 

 

One factor is calling the protections. You say the problem on the first video is the edge is unblocked. Well, it's pretty obvious pre-snap that the edge is unblocked, and Josh is supposed to do something about that. Either have a hot read and not worry about the guy, or adjust the blocking.  I saw another one like this yesterday where a linebacker on the offensive left side lined up unblocked and had a straight run at Josh, forcing an incompletion. 

 

And as you say, on the second one, Moore is open for the touchdown. Josh has made that throw for years. Why isn't he recognizing almost from the beginning of the play that he has this throw?  

 

I don't think Josh is properly prepared. This is way he looked in his first two or three seasons. It's a significant regression from the last couple of seasons. 

[MikePJ76]

I know he won't throw this to samuel but I want to see him throw this deep post to samuel, even if its incomplete.   I think it could help if he throws this a few times.  There have been three games now where samuel is running this deep post and he does not take it and give him a shot.  I know on this one he has to hold it another half a second which he might not have but I really want to see them throw this deep post.  These plays so many times end up as holding/Pass Interference or TD's.  They get thrown in every game every week.  We are not even attempting them.

 

 

[boyst]

38 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

Here are a couple more plays that I think could have been completions.  Feels like a lot of little things that are changing drives.  HItting a few of these I think will change some things.

This first one is tough because the edge is free and unblocked.  May be an impossible throw but once again coleman is running across the field left to right open.

 

this one I really do not understand why allen is looking short to long.  Moore is open all the way through this, this imo should be a TD.  Throw the ball to moore before he makes his break and this seems like a simple TD and I bet moore would have looked really wide open.  Just didn't pull the trigger because it appears he is going short to long in his read.  Even if he hits Davis with a clean throw he may score if he makes the guy miss.  

 

I disagree 100% with your take   Moore was not open. He under coverage on both sides ready to bite and the dbs had leverage. 

[Low Positive]

18 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

Here are a couple more plays that I think could have been completions.  Feels like a lot of little things that are changing drives.  HItting a few of these I think will change some things.

This first one is tough because the edge is free and unblocked.  May be an impossible throw but once again coleman is running across the field left to right open.

 

this one I really do not understand why allen is looking short to long.  Moore is open all the way through this, this imo should be a TD.  Throw the ball to moore before he makes his break and this seems like a simple TD and I bet moore would have looked really wide open.  Just didn't pull the trigger because it appears he is going short to long in his read.  Even if he hits Davis with a clean throw he may score if he makes the guy miss.  

 

Thanks for these. On the first one, the rusher doesn't allow Josh to set his feet to throw. He sees both Knox and Keon, but he can't throw across his body because he has to evade the rusher. On the second one, he doesn't read short to long. The play called seems to have been a screen. He comes off of that and then almost throws to Shavers deep. But he's not trusting what he sees and is spooked about throwing picks. He then makes a good read to a WIDE open Davis but doesn't set his feet and throws the ball with his upper body.

 

I just watched some more missed passing plays and the general trend is that, for some reason, Josh Allen isn't stepping into his missed throws even when he has the time and space to do so. 

[Mikey152]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

These are both good examples.  

 

I think Josh's decision making has taken a big step backward this season. I don't know if it's Josh or how he's being preparing. 

 

One factor is calling the protections. You say the problem on the first video is the edge is unblocked. Well, it's pretty obvious pre-snap that the edge is unblocked, and Josh is supposed to do something about that. Either have a hot read and not worry about the guy, or adjust the blocking.  I saw another one like this yesterday where a linebacker on the offensive left side lined up unblocked and had a straight run at Josh, forcing an incompletion. 

 

And as you say, on the second one, Moore is open for the touchdown. Josh has made that throw for years. Why isn't he recognizing almost from the beginning of the play that he has this throw?  

 

I don't think Josh is properly prepared. This is way he looked in his first two or three seasons. It's a significant regression from the last couple of seasons. 

Oh, I think he is plenty prepared...it's almost as if you can see him hesitating. I think he is having the gunslinger coached out of him. 

 

I mean, we can't be shocked. He used to get killed for his turnovers. Last season he cut those WAY down playing just like this and won an MVP. The problem, IMO, is teams are getting progressively more aggressive against this offense with more man defense and blitzes and it doesn't look great right now.