My view on the Bills Defensive Problems

[mannc]

1 hour ago, KOKBILLS said:

If you want to simplify the problems on Defense in 2025 down to the biggest problem that is actually really easy...

It's missed tackles and it's not even close...

There are certainly other issues... But missed tackles have absolutely killed us this year so far. 

 

Missed tackles are a symptom…the cause is smaller, slower, athletically inferior players who get to the ball late and are physically out-manned when they do arrive…

[KOKBILLS]

Just now, mannc said:

Missed tackles are a symptom…the cause is smaller, slower, athletically inferior players who get to the ball late and are physically out-manned when they do arrive…

 

Sure... I understand all that and it's definitely true... But a missed tackle is a missed tackle... We had a shot and we missed... And that is killing us... To compound the problem we are also seeing a spike in multiple missed tackles on the same play... 

[mannc]

1 minute ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

Sure... I understand all that and it's definitely true... But a missed tackle is a missed tackle... We had a shot and we missed... And that is killing us... To compound the problem we are also seeing a spike in multiple missed tackles on the same play... 

See above…

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

They are 14th this year at 22.8. We don't need an elite D when we have an elite O. 14th is plenty good enough to win a Super Bowl with.

 

In the playoffs they allow an average of 24.0 PPG since 2018. The real issue in the playoffs is their inability to get off the field against KC when they do just fine during the regular season in that regard. 

 

Regular season, KC has averaged 20 PPG against them, in the playoffs they average 34 PPG.  There is no excuse for the exact same team with the exact same players to be 2 TD better against you in the playoffs than the regular season over a span of 4+ years.

 

 

I mean - none of these things matter that much at the end of the day. We've had a good statistical defense by every metric, and that defense bombed in the playoffs.  I'm not saying the opposite is GOING to happen, but there's a number of potential reasons for improvement - health, chemistry, rookie improvements.  They haven't played that well yet, but the issues aren't necessarily unfixable.  

 

The example i always come back to is Indy and Peyton Manning.  He carried his team to the playoffs every year, and his teams defense was never very good.  The first super bowl they won, manning played pretty poorly.  Their 20-something ranked defense had 13 takeaways, and kept 3 of 4 opponents under 300 yards.  

 

The team and its challenges can be somewhat attributed to the roster construction of beane, and coaching staff assembled by McDermott.  The players also aren't playing that well.  

[folz]

2 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

how much of this is because we play in the AFC East which was pretty barren over that time span.  Also, our D collapses in the playoffs.  Our "bend and don't break" structure does not work against top QBs, and this year does not work against mediocre QBs.  

 

2 hours ago, BlazinBill said:

Issue with his defense (McDermott) has always been the same and will continue to be so- statically looking at a season really lacks an accurate picture of things-but stats are bs anyway -good QBs are never contained- they simply methodically tear us apart,

then pressure on Allen to be a hero -  this is why the playoffs seem to end the same way- if you are dealing with a strong coach and a good qb they are cooked

 

 

1 hour ago, Rousseauisnoschmo said:

Lets make sure to conveniently forget how this defense completely melts down against KC in the playoffs. Thats something that has happened. Four times.

 

1 hour ago, cba fan said:

compare playoffs then.  But none of it means jack shiit when they get smoked in games that matter by Chiefs 

 

I hear this all the time that we get smoked in the playoffs. So, let me just add a little perspective.

 

In 10 playoff games (in the McD era) vs. teams not named the Chiefs, the Bills defense is giving up an average of 18.3 points in the playoffs. So, not everyone is smoking us, it is really just the Chiefs. Oh and by the way, you do realize that K.C. is a dynasty team with a generational offense correct?

 

In the last 3 games vs. the Chiefs, at the end of regulation, K.C. was up a combined 6 points (over 3 games). So, they have been 2 points better than us in each of our last three playoff matchups (with one OT game, and one last second missed FG). I mean how close can you get to beating one of the best teams the league has seen. Obviously that doesn't speak to how well the defense did or did not play, but we are literally three plays away from being 3-1 vs. the Chiefs in the playoffs [and that doesn't even take into account that the refs heavily influenced two of the 4 playoff games vs. the Chiefs---2020 and 2024; or injuries...we were pretty banged up (worse than the Chiefs) for at least two of those four contests].

 

And you almost have to separate the Bills vs. the Chiefs from a normal playoff game (on both sides). I mean, do you think that the Chiefs defense sucks and falls apart in the playoffs?

 

In the Mahomes era:

Chiefs have allowed the Bills an average of 28.25 points per game in the playoffs (4 games).

Chiefs vs. all other playoff teams averaged 22.88 points allowed (17 games).

 

Is that difference because the Chiefs defense sucks in the playoffs (obviously not), or is it because Buffalo is also a special offense that they have a harder time stopping? The Chiefs are giving up 5.37 points more to the Bills than to their average playoff opponent. The Bills score 1 point higher vs. the Chiefs than their playoff average. The Chiefs score 2.5 points more vs. the Bills than their playoff average. And that 1.5 points is about what we are losing to them by (2 points/last 3 playoff games). But, the margin is razor-thin.

 

And, if the Chiefs are holding other teams to 3, 10, 17, 22, 24 points per playoff game, then they can obviously take their foot off the gas on offense. Run long-sustained drives, get into 4-minute offense early, pull your starters, etc. There is no need for the Chiefs to score 36-42 points vs. those teams. Yet, against the Bills, the Chiefs know they are going to need to score at least 30 points and keep their foot on the gas for 60 minutes, because Josh is going to keep coming. So, to continually say that the Bills defense has been worse vs. the Chiefs than other teams, or allowed them to score more than their season average, or whatever, really doesn't prove anything to me. They know they have to do that against the Bills or they will get beat. They just don't always need to pour it on against other teams.

 

In the Mahomes era, the Chiefs have averaged 30 points per playoff game (21 playoff games). In the four playoff games vs. the Bills, they have averaged 34.75 (and that includes one OT game---if you only take regulation, then the Bills have allowed the Chiefs 32.5 points/playoff game---only 2.5 points above their average). How much of that is because they have to score more against the Bills, rather than all of those other defenses being superior to the Bills' defense. 12 of KC's 21 playoff games (57%), their opponents scored 24 points or fewer. In 8 of their 21 playoff games (38%), their opponents scored fewer than 21 points. They haven't needed to score more against other teams---doesn't necessarily mean that Buffalo's defense is worse than those other teams.

 

Now, I'm not saying that our defense has been great vs, K.C. in the playoffs, but it's also true that K.C. scores a lot no matter who they play (when they need to). In 21 playoff games, the Chiefs have only scored below 22 points twice (9.5% of the time)---to Tampa Bay in the 2020 SB, and to Baltimore in the 2023 AFC Conf Championship. (You could add vs. Philly in the 2024 SB too, they scored 22 points, but it was in garbage time). So, only 3 teams (in 21 games) have really stopped the Chiefs offense. in 12 of 21 games, the Chiefs have scored between 27 and 51 points (57% of their playoff games).

 

This idea that our defense is so much worse than other teams vs. K.C. doesn't seem to hold up to scrutiny when you look at all of the context surrounding the stats. Also, the idea that we get smoked by everyone in the playoffs is also a fallacy. It really is just the Chiefs, and as I said, there are many reasons for that (beyond them just being a generational/historical offense).

 

As to this year, yeah, the defense does not look great right now. The pass rush has actually improved, but the run defense and tackling has been horrible (and I too am concerned about the secondary). But, we need this defense to be at its peak come playoff time, not in weeks 5 and 6. And there are a few reasons at least to think they can still get better as the year goes on. It is a bit of a wait and see right now...will Hairston, Hoect, Ogunjobi, Milano, etc. make a difference, will the young guys improve, will the new guys start to gel better, etc.

 

But the idea that McD is not a good defensive coach or his scheme sucks seems too simplistic an answer when we have statistically and consistently been one of the best defenses in most categories (points, yards, sacks, turnovers) over the last 8 years. And that they have actually fared well (18.3 points allowed) in the playoffs vs. all teams not named the Chiefs. Everyone's defense is going to do worse against the Chiefs than if playing 90% of the rest of the league. And no other team has had to face the Chiefs more in the playoffs (4 times) than we have (so, again, comparing our playoff stats vs.other teams' playoff stats, etc. is really an apples to oranges comparison).

 

I'm not giving up on this team or this defense yet. Hopefully they have used the BYE week to start getting straight.

 

 

P.S.

As far as the AFC East sucking (being the reason for good defensive stats for the Bills), well it sucked when the Patriots were winning too. Do we discount their wins and stats for that? Over the last 10 years, no team in the AFC west is over .500 win % except for the Chiefs (do we discount the Chiefs success because the AFC west has been weak)? etc., etc. 

 

If I have the time later, I may look at the Bills' defense vs.good/top QBs. Now obviously, every defense will be worse vs. a top QB than an average or worse QB. That's just common sense. But have the Bills been say worse than most teams vs. good QBs---I'll have to look to see if that is true or just another false talking point. I know we have fared well against Lamar Jackson at least (regular season and post-season), for instance.

 

[gjv]

McDermott has his work cut out for him this year. I think this years Bills team is rostering the worst secondary in the last 25 years.

[GroteStreet]

4 minutes ago, gjv said:

McDermott has his work cut out for him this year. I think this years Bills team is rostering the worst secondary in the last 25 years.

With White and Rapp starting, the secondary has to have the lowest talent level in the past 25 years.

[JustHewIt]

4 hours ago, Cheektavegas Charlie said:

A lot of posters want everyone to be eternally grateful to McDermott for ending the drought and beating up on an incredibly weak AFC East for the last 5 years.

 
Literally no one is asking for this.  We just want to be able to have more than one topic of conversation (McBeane sucks at everything they do!) every week for 17-20 straight weeks when there's nothing the team can do RIGHT NOW to change anything.  Save it for the offseason

[BeastMaster]

McDermotts defense has always been a complete doormat once they face a legitimate offense and QB in the playoffs

 

This isn't going to change until he changes 

[gobills404]

4 hours ago, nuklz2594 said:

need much bigger lbs.  225lbs ain't cutting it.

I’d honestly be willing to bet money that Bernard is actually sub-220. Literally looks like a third safety out there when you see him next to Rapp and Bishop.

[LABILLBACKER]

5 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

They are 14th this year at 22.8. We don't need an elite D when we have an elite O. 14th is plenty good enough to win a Super Bowl with.

 

In the playoffs they allow an average of 24.0 PPG since 2018. The real issue in the playoffs is their inability to get off the field against KC when they do just fine during the regular season in that regard. 

 

Regular season, KC has averaged 20 PPG against them, in the playoffs they average 34 PPG.  There is no excuse for the exact same team with the exact same players to be 2 TD better against you in the playoffs than the regular season over a span of 4+ years.

 

Actually we're 17th this year not 14th (22.8).  And last I checked we gave up alot of playoff points to teams not named KC.  Fans are so easily content and satisfied with the regular season laurels of this team. And you're absolutely right....there is no excuse for the same D giving up 14 more points in the playoffs.  Personally (JMHO) I think Andy just toys with McD during regular season games. Then lays the wood and his full arsenal of plays come playoff time.

[Big Turk]

11 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Actually we're 17th this year not 14th (22.8).  And last I checked we gave up alot of playoff points to teams not named KC.  Fans are so easily content and satisfied with the regular season laurels of this team. And you're absolutely right....there is no excuse for the same D giving up 14 more points in the playoffs.  Personally (JMHO) I think Andy just toys with McD during regular season games. Then lays the wood and his full arsenal of plays come playoff time.

 

Against teams not named KC the Bills have allowed an average of 20 PPG in the 8 playoff games under McD/Allen.

 

Please have facts at your disposal next time prior to writing.

Edited 22 minutes ago by Big Turk