Way To Early 53 man Roster prediction. 45 Picked. You fill the last 8

[LABILLBACKER]

On 8/20/2025 at 12:56 PM, Pete said:

Thank you.  Id try and trade him.  Someone would take a chance on a recent 3rd round pick.  If not, I cut my losses.  Bills DL runs deep, so teams will factor that in IMO.

 

McD holds his cards closely regarding injuries.  We really need Max, but first NFL game against Baltimore might not be a good idea.  Dane scares me.  We are going to blitz a lot more.  Joe Marino said we are blitzing 25%-35% more now.  The team wants to play a lot more man to man. We need athletic CBs-like Max.  So the thought of Dane being on an island, 1 on 1, with a heavy blitz I find terrifying.  

More man coverage and blitzing....I'll see it to believe it?

[RichRiderBills]

Outside the box Roster ideas:

 

Neither Samuel nor Moore deserve to make the team. An idea....can a few extra reps for Cook in the slot or Coleman as a versatile guy fill the void? 

 

If you do this do you keep an extra RB? Gore Jr? 

 

I think Gore Jr. Deserves to make the team. 

 

Are we sure Jackson Hawes makes the 53? Are we dead set this guy could not chill on the PS and is irreplaceable? 

 

I go into the season with Knox Kincaid and Gillam as TEs and keep the model of Xtra OL servicing as blockers. Davidson Hawes on PS. 

 

 

[BillsFanForever19]

4 hours ago, RichRiderBills said:

Outside the box Roster ideas:

 

Neither Samuel nor Moore deserve to make the team. An idea....can a few extra reps for Cook in the slot or Coleman as a versatile guy fill the void? 

 

If you do this do you keep an extra RB? Gore Jr? 

 

I think Gore Jr. Deserves to make the team. 

 

Are we sure Jackson Hawes makes the 53? Are we dead set this guy could not chill on the PS and is irreplaceable? 

 

I go into the season with Knox Kincaid and Gillam as TEs and keep the model of Xtra OL servicing as blockers. Davidson Hawes on PS. 

 

The only way Samuel isn't here is if someone's willing to trade for him. That would save us 7.34m in Cap Space while eating only 1.7m in Dead Cap.

 

Otherwise if we just cut him, we save nothing and eat over 8.8m in Dead Cap. At that point, you're paying for him whether he's on the roster or not. Might as well get something out of him, even if he doesn't stay healthy all year.

 

Moore is an interesting case. He's had some good practices, he's had some bad practices, he's been injured, and he hasn't really popped in the Pre-Season. Depending on who you talk to, he's either had a good off-season or a bad one.

 

He, like Samuel, saves us nothing by cutting him and costs us 2.5m in Dead Money. Like Samuel, you're paying for him whether he's here or not. That said, eating 2.5m is a lot more likely and palatable than eating over 8.8m. So it's possible.

 

One thing I don't think you're going to see though is us cutting both of them. Which would have us saving nothing and eating over 11.3m in Dead Money. If we can Trade Samuel, maybe they'd cut Moore. But it's way more likely they'd Trade Samuel and keep Moore, Cut Moore and keep Samuel, or keep them both - IMO.

 

The other side of what you're saying is regardless of creativity on Offense, they're going to keep at least 5 WR's. So who would the 5th guy be beyond Shakir, Palmer, Coleman, and Shavers if you got rid of both Samuel and Moore? K.J. Hamler? Kristian Wilkerson? Nah. Samuel and Moore are better WR's than them and you're already paying for them. At least one of them will stick.

 

As for keeping an extra RB, I don't see that. We're not going to dress 4 RB's on Game Day and we'll have no problem getting Gore back on the Practice Squad. 

 

Yes, Jackson Hawes is dead set as the 3rd TE on the Roster. Much like WR, we're going to keep 3 Tight End's. And he's a very good Blocking Tight End who has had a good off-season. We also spent a 5th Round Pick on him. Releasing a Draft Pick before the bottom of the 6th is a risky proposition trying to sneak them on to the Practice Squad.

Edited August 23 by BillsFanForever19

[MJS]

On 8/20/2025 at 4:12 PM, Pete said:

I forgot about Darrick Forest.  Starting safety is a mystery.  Forest might end up starting, who knows?

 

Forrest has been extremely quiet. I just think he has been outplayed vy everyone else and won't make the team.

7 hours ago, Success said:

Reading though the comments, I realize I'm a bigger Carter fan than most.

 

Prior to his injury, he looked like a real disruptor in the chances he had last year. Seemed to always be in the backfield when he was in the game.  I have high hopes.

They have him playing 1 tech now and he just isn't that type of player.

[Richard Noggin]

9 hours ago, KOKBILLS said:

QB

Josh Allen, Mitch Trubisky (I would be shocked if they kept White over Mitch)

 

RB

James Cook, Ray Davis, Ty Johnson

 

FB 

Reggie Gilliam

 

WR

Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Joshua Palmer, Elijah Moore, Curtis Samuel, Laviska Shenault

 

TE

Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Jackson Hawes

 

OL

Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Conner McGovern, O'Cyrus Torrence, Spencer Brown, Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, Tylan Grable, Alec Anderson, Ryan Van DeMark

 

DL

Greg Rousseau, Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, Joey Bosa, AJ Epenesa, Landon Jackson, Javon Solomon, TJ Sanders, Deone Walker

 

LB'S

Terrel Bernard, Matt Milano, Joe Andreeson, Dorian Williams, Shaq Thompson

 

CB

Christian Benford, Tre'Davious White, Taron Johnson, Dorian Strong, Maxwell Hairston, Ja'Marcus Ingram, Brandon Codrington

 

S

Taylor Rapp, Cole Bishop, Damar Hamlin (I wouldn't...but they will), Jordan Hancock, Cam Lewis

 

ST

K

Tyler Bass

P

Brad Robbins

LS

Reid Ferguson

 

ZERO guys on IR or PUP to start the season? No way. Gotta use those tools to punt on a few decisions: SVPG and Hairston and White and who knows who else could easily NOT count towards the 53 at first. Opens up spots for Carter and/or Shavers and/or a cutdown day addition at S and/or CB, one can hope. 

[BillsFanForever19]

55 minutes ago, MJS said:

Forrest has been extremely quiet. I just think he has been outplayed vy everyone else and won't make the team.

 

Yeah, he's pretty firmly behind Hamlin, Hancock, and Lewis. I didn't think he ever really had much of a chance to make it anyways. His zero guarantees, minimum contract always kind of screamed Camp Body to me. Especially when you looked at the guys in front of him, the investments made in them, and how McDermott values them.

 

Even Forrest's biggest supporters like Joe Marino concede he's not going to make it. He'll probably be back on the Practice Squad though, unless he decides he has better options on another teams Practice Squad.

[GunnerBill]

58 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Yeah, he's pretty firmly behind Hamlin, Hancock, and Lewis. I didn't think he ever really had much of a chance to make it anyways. His zero guarantees, minimum contract always kind of screamed Camp Body to me. Especially when you looked at the guys in front of him, the investments made in them, and how McDermott values them.

 

Even Forrest's biggest supporters like Joe Marino concede he's not going to make it. He'll probably be back on the Practice Squad though, unless he decides he has better options on another teams Practice Squad.

 

I did think he had a chance as a STs ace and 5th safety. But he has been passed by others even within teams considerations. I never thought he was making this team through safety play. That always felt a stretch. 

[oldmanfan]

I think they do an injury settlement with Samuel

[RichRiderBills]

5 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

The only way Samuel isn't here is if someone's willing to trade for him. That would save us 7.34m in Cap Space while eating only 1.7m in Dead Cap.

 

Otherwise if we just cut him, we save nothing and eat over 8.8m in Dead Cap. At that point, you're paying for him whether he's on the roster or not. Might as well get something out of him, even if he doesn't stay healthy all year.

 

Moore is an interesting case. He's had some good practices, he's had some bad practices, he's been injured, and he hasn't really popped in the Pre-Season. Depending on who you talk to, he's either had a good off-season or a bad one.

 

He, like Samuel, saves us nothing by cutting him and costs us 2.5m in Dead Money. Like Samuel, you're paying for him whether he's here or not. That said, eating 2.5m is a lot more likely and palatable than eating over 8.8m. So it's possible.

 

One thing I don't think you're going to see though is us cutting both of them. Which would have us saving nothing and eating over 11.3m in Dead Money. If we can Trade Samuel, maybe they'd cut Moore. But it's way more likely they'd Trade Samuel and keep Moore, Cut Moore and keep Samuel, or keep them both - IMO.

 

The other side of what you're saying is regardless of creativity on Offense, they're going to keep at least 5 WR's. So who would the 5th guy be beyond Shakir, Palmer, Coleman, and Shavers if you got rid of both Samuel and Moore? K.J. Hamler? Kristian Wilkerson? Nah. Samuel and Moore are better WR's than them and you're already paying for them. At least one of them will stick.

 

As for keeping an extra RB, I don't see that. We're not going to dress 4 RB's on Game Day and we'll have no problem getting Gore back on the Practice Squad. 

 

Yes, Jackson Hawes is dead set as the 3rd TE on the Roster. Much like WR, we're going to keep 3 Tight End's. And he's a very good Blocking Tight End who has had a good off-season. We also spent a 5th Round Pick on him. Releasing a Draft Pick before the bottom of the 6th is a risky proposition trying to sneak them on to the Practice Squad.

 

Shenault may be the last WR w return ability. Though I agree, maybe you keep 1 between Moore and Samuel 

 

I don't think they care about dead money if a guy isn't going to contribute. As of now, I think IR could be an option for Samuel as well. 

 

Gillam is TE #3 and oh by the way you keep a guy or 2 on PS. Hawes would not be poached. Bills use OL in TE roles too regularly. Does 1 7th round pick really tell you they were abandoning this strategy? 

[BillsFanForever19]

10 hours ago, RichRiderBills said:

 

Shenault may be the last WR w return ability. Though I agree, maybe you keep 1 between Moore and Samuel 

 

I don't think they care about dead money if a guy isn't going to contribute. As of now, I think IR could be an option for Samuel as well. 

 

Gillam is TE #3 and oh by the way you keep a guy or 2 on PS. Hawes would not be poached. Bills use OL in TE roles too regularly. Does 1 7th round pick really tell you they were abandoning this strategy? 

 

Gilliam isn't a Tight End on this team. He's been a Fullback since his Rookie year when he won the job over Patrick Dimarco.

 

You can put him at TE in certain packages. But his role isn't going to change. He's not making a full time switch to Tight End on a whim without running with the Tight End group in Training Camp or the Pre-Season.

 

Even if they had (which they didn't), there'd have been another FB brought in. There's been no indication they're removing Fullback from this Offense. And Gilliam's not going to be FB1, TE3, and ST all at the same time.

 

If Shenault is making the roster, he'll take Brandon Codrington's spot and he'll be the 6th "WR", like Codrington was the 6th "CB". 

 

Curtis Samuel has returned to Practice in Full. He is no longer dealing with injuries. You can't just IR a healthy person.

 

Hawes is going to be here. It's not a question. And you can't say for sure he wouldn't be poached. All it takes is one team that needs a Blocking TE and wanted to take him after we did.

 

We've never once under Beane and McDermott outright cut a 5th Round Draft Pick the same year they've Drafted them. That's not going to change this year. Especially with the reviews that Hawes has had this off-season.

 

And I have not a clue what you're trying to say with your last sentence. What 7th Rounder are you talking about? Do you think Hawes was a 7th Rounder? He wasn't, he was Drafted in the 5th. What does occasionally using OL as Eligible Receivers have to do with anything? We still carry 3 True TE's every year regardless of that.

Edited August 23 by BillsFanForever19

[finn]

5 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Yeah, he's pretty firmly behind Hamlin, Hancock, and Lewis. I didn't think he ever really had much of a chance to make it anyways. His zero guarantees, minimum contract always kind of screamed Camp Body to me. Especially when you looked at the guys in front of him, the investments made in them, and how McDermott values them.

 

Even Forrest's biggest supporters like Joe Marino concede he's not going to make it. He'll probably be back on the Practice Squad though, unless he decides he has better options on another teams Practice Squad.

I'm glad to have Sanders, Walker, and Jackson, but I wish Beane had invested free-agent money in one very good safety and a reliable corner besides White instead of Hoecht and Oganjobi. Hoecht's contract is worth up to $24 million over three years, Obiwan is guaranteed $8 million for one year. I'm sure they'll contribute, but even before the injuries in the secondary, I would have preferred the money go back there to make double sure we don't have a repeat of last year's nightmare. At this point, the D-line is loaded and the secondary might end up being a dumpster fire. Reminds me of those power lifters with an overdeveloped upper body and stick legs. 

[Cash]

16 minutes ago, finn said:

I'm glad to have Sanders, Walker, and Jackson, but I wish Beane had invested free-agent money in one very good safety and a reliable corner besides White instead of Hoecht and Oganjobi. Hoecht's contract is worth up to $24 million over three years, Obiwan is guaranteed $8 million for one year. I'm sure they'll contribute, but even before the injuries in the secondary, I would have preferred the money go back there to make double sure we don't have a repeat of last year's nightmare. At this point, the D-line is loaded and the secondary might end up being a dumpster fire. Reminds me of those power lifters with an overdeveloped upper body and stick legs. 

Yeah, the FO’s actions this offseason really sent a message that they were feeling good about their safeties. One very low-level signing with roughly no guaranteed money, and one 5th-rounder who played more NCB than S in college. If the safety play isn’t up to snuff this year, it’s not a good look for the FO. 

[finn]

4 minutes ago, Cash said:

Yeah, the FO’s actions this offseason really sent a message that they were feeling good about their safeties. One very low-level signing with roughly no guaranteed money, and one 5th-rounder who played more NCB than S in college. If the safety play isn’t up to snuff this year, it’s not a good look for the FO. 

Exactly. Beane seemed to overreact to Philly's D-line manhandling KC the same way he overreacted (the huge six-year contract to 33-year old Von Miller) after Tampa Bay's D-line manhandled them in the 2021 Super Bowl. In both cases, he went berserk on the D-line at the expense of other team needs. You can argue bad luck in the case of Miller, but in the present case, they have more D-lineman than they know what to do with, while the only reliable starters in the secondary are Rapp, Taron, and Benford. They're pinning their hopes on the best-case scenario of Bishop panning out and everyone else staying healthy. White's recent injury is a reminder that you can hope for the best, but you don't want to rely on it. 

[SCBills]

16 minutes ago, finn said:

Exactly. Beane seemed to overreact to Philly's D-line manhandling KC the same way he overreacted (the huge six-year contract to 33-year old Von Miller) after Tampa Bay's D-line manhandled them in the 2021 Super Bowl. In both cases, he went berserk on the D-line at the expense of other team needs. You can argue bad luck in the case of Miller, but in the present case, they have more D-lineman than they know what to do with, while the only reliable starters in the secondary are Rapp, Taron, and Benford. They're pinning their hopes on the best-case scenario of Bishop panning out and everyone else staying healthy. White's recent injury is a reminder that you can hope for the best, but you don't want to rely on it. 

I prioritize DL way more than Safety.  
 

I get the frustration, but they love Rapp and invested a second round pick in Bishop.. who by most accounts, has the talent to be a dude.  They were always going to see this plan through. 
 

At corner, they drafted a guy in RD1.  They extended CB1 in Benford. They drafted another CB later and fortified depth with vets.   I’m just not sure I can get on them for that.  
 

Hoecht is worth the deal.  He’s a DE2 talent with flex to play DT & some LB. 
 

Ogunjobi.. well that deal is a mess and according to Joe Buscaglia, been our 6th best DT in practice/preseason.  Pure panic signing due to Beane’s inability to build up the DL in prior years.   Now we have him as an expensive insurance policy with the hope Week 7 comes and he’s not needed. 

[BillsFanForever19]

This is done with the assumption that Tre is dinged up and may miss a week or two, but won't miss significant time. Obviously, if he is to miss at least 4 games, things change:

 

QB:

Josh Allen #17

Mitch Trubusky #11

 

RB:

James Cook III #4

Ray Davis #22

Ty Johnson #26

-

Reggie Gilliam #41

 

WR:

Khalil Shakir #10

Joshua Palmer #5

Keon Coleman #0

Curtis Samuel #1

Elijah Moore #18

 

TE:

Dalton Kincaid #86

Dawson Knox #88

Jackson Hawes #85

 

OL:

Dion Dawkins #73

David Edwards #76

Connor McGovern #66

O'Cyrus Torrence #64

Spencer Brown #79

-

Tylan Grable #68

Ryan Van Demark #74

Alec Anderson #70

Kendrick Green #53

 

DE:

Joey Bosa #97

Greg Rousseau #50

AJ Epenesa #57

Landon Jackson #94

Javon Solomon #56

 

DT:

Ed Oliver #91

Daquan Jones #92

T.J. Sanders #98

Deone Walker #96

Dewayne Carter #90

 

LB:

Matt Milano #58

Terrel Bernard #8

Dorian Williams #42

Joe Andreessen #44

Shaq Thompson #45

 

CB:

Christian Benford #47

Taron Johnson #7

Tre'Davious White #27

Dorian Strong #43

Dane Jackson #23

Ja'Marcus Ingram #46

 

S:

Taylor Rapp #9

Cole Bishop #24

Damar Hamlin #3

Jordan Hancock #37 (Nickel/Safety)

Cam Lewis #39 (Nickel/Safety)

 

ST:

Tyler Bass #2 (K)

Reid Ferguson #69 (LS)

Brad Robbins #40 (P)

Brandon Codrington #29 (Return)

 

IR to Return:

CB Maxwell Hairston #31

 

PUP:

OL Sedrick Van Pran-Granger #62

 

Suspended:

DE Michael Hoecht #55

DT Larry Ogunjobi #99

 

 

Some thoughts:

 

- Initially, it was said Maxwell Hairston would be ready to roll by Week 1. At that time, I said Hairston wouldn't be put on IR to Return. Since then, McDermott has recently said that he's got a ways to go. So IR to Return it is.

 

- I wanted to have Tyrell Shavers on the Roster and initially carried 6 WR's. Unfortunately, the injuries at CB changed things for him. 

 

If there's a team that is willing to trade for Curtis Samuel, I think they'd be interested in the Cap Space a Trade  would bring. But that's a big ask and a Trade is the only way I see him exiting. If that were to happen, it would make room for Shavers.

 

Even still, I went back and forth on Moore or Shavers. But ultimately, Moore's contract being guaranteed, his cut saving nothing, and his speed won #5 for me right now. But it wouldn't shock me to see Moore released for Shavers.

 

- Brad Robbins is the Punter on this list by default and not knowing other options. But it wouldn't remotely shock me if a Punter they liked more were released from another team, that Robbins was released and a new Punter is plug and played.

 

- I know that Codrington offers nothing beyond Returns and Shenault offers at least something at WR. But through Training Camp and the first 2 Pre-Season games, there's been nothing to show that Shenault is above Codrington in their eyes.

 

- Mitch easily wins the QB2 job. With his guarantees in contract vs. White's no guarantees (and Josh's friendship with Mitch), White needed to clearly and definitively beat him. That hasn't happened.

 

- One last thing just bc it made me laugh and also bc I anticipate a backlash thread when he makes it:

 

Edited August 23 by BillsFanForever19

[Cash]

13 hours ago, finn said:

Exactly. Beane seemed to overreact to Philly's D-line manhandling KC the same way he overreacted (the huge six-year contract to 33-year old Von Miller) after Tampa Bay's D-line manhandled them in the 2021 Super Bowl. In both cases, he went berserk on the D-line at the expense of other team needs. You can argue bad luck in the case of Miller, but in the present case, they have more D-lineman than they know what to do with, while the only reliable starters in the secondary are Rapp, Taron, and Benford. They're pinning their hopes on the best-case scenario of Bishop panning out and everyone else staying healthy. White's recent injury is a reminder that you can hope for the best, but you don't want to rely on it. 

Eh, I don’t think it’s fair to lump CB into the same bucket here. This offseason, they added two vets who’ve had success in the system before, plus their first round pick, plus another late pick.  And probably the Hancock pick should partially count, since they drafted him thinking he might play NCB (and still might, but it seems like he’s mostly a S for now from what I’m reading).

 

 That’s a lot of investment compared to S, which again was limited to just a bargain-bin FA and half of a 5th round pick. 

[KOKBILLS]

20 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

ZERO guys on IR or PUP to start the season? No way. Gotta use those tools to punt on a few decisions: SVPG and Hairston and White and who knows who else could easily NOT count towards the 53 at first. Opens up spots for Carter and/or Shavers and/or a cutdown day addition at S and/or CB, one can hope. 

 

Well... Things change by the day. I mean... Van Pran-Granger definitely looks to be headed to the PUP now... Maybe Tre...Or more... But I don't know what I don't know... 

[ganesh]

1 hour ago, Cash said:

Eh, I don’t think it’s fair to lump CB into the same bucket here. This offseason, they added two vets who’ve had success in the system before, plus their first round pick, plus another late pick.  And probably the Hancock pick should partially count, since they drafted him thinking he might play NCB (and still might, but it seems like he’s mostly a S for now from what I’m reading).

 

 That’s a lot of investment compared to S, which again was limited to just a bargain-bin FA and half of a 5th round pick. 

You cannot invest in top talent in all positions.  McDermott's is confident in having low round picks pan out at the safety position. 

[finn]

8 hours ago, Cash said:

Eh, I don’t think it’s fair to lump CB into the same bucket here. This offseason, they added two vets who’ve had success in the system before, plus their first round pick, plus another late pick.  And probably the Hancock pick should partially count, since they drafted him thinking he might play NCB (and still might, but it seems like he’s mostly a S for now from what I’m reading).

 

 That’s a lot of investment compared to S, which again was limited to just a bargain-bin FA and half of a 5th round pick. 

Fair point. I do feel more comfortable with the cornerback depth than I do safety. Still, Dane Jackson is no more than emergency depth, and Tre White, although I'm certainly rooting for him, is a gamble with his age and injury history (as we're seeing). I do like Strong, who may be a significant player next year, but Hancock has always been slotted (it appears) as nickel and safety, not CB.

 

That adds up to putting all your chips for this critical position on your first rounder, hoping he's both good and stays healthy (!), with the iffy White as insurance policy. After having to give up a third-rounder in mid-season two years ago because of a lemon first-round CB and inadequate depth, you'd think Beane would have done a bit more at CB. Same with safety after last year's debacle. Hence my point that he seems fixated on DL at the expense of other positions. I agree DL should be the top priority, but not if it means leaving other positions threadbare. Hindsight is 20-20, but I look at Carter, Jackson (yes, yes, way too early), and Obiwan, and I can't help wonder if those investments (two third rounders and $8 million) would have been better spent on S and CB.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

10 hours ago, Cash said:

Eh, I don’t think it’s fair to lump CB into the same bucket here. This offseason, they added two vets who’ve had success in the system before, plus their first round pick, plus another late pick.  And probably the Hancock pick should partially count, since they drafted him thinking he might play NCB (and still might, but it seems like he’s mostly a S for now from what I’m reading).

 

 That’s a lot of investment compared to S, which again was limited to just a bargain-bin FA and half of a 5th round pick. 

If they keep Dane Jackson ahead of Tyrell Shavers it would be one of the greatest miscarriages of justice and malpractice Bills history!