GoBills808 Posted July 31 Posted July 31 2 minutes ago, Mikie2times said: You cant always trust AI Well that's kind of the point isn't it The OP used AI to organize material he's familiar with for efficiency's sake. That's responsible use imo You used it to fabricate an argument using football data you're clearly unfamiliar with...most people who follow the league would have known the Chiefs were certainly not blowing teams out to the tune of a +131 point differential 2 1 Quote
Mikie2times Posted July 31 Posted July 31 1 minute ago, GoBills808 said: Well that's kind of the point isn't it The OP used AI to organize material he's familiar with for efficiency's sake. That's responsible use imo You used it to fabricate an argument using football data you're clearly unfamiliar with...most people who follow the league would have known the Chiefs were certainly not blowing teams out to the tune of a +131 point differential It would have taken an additional 3 minutes to correct that, if you don't have issue fair enough. I don't care for it on a Bills fan forum. 5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Well that's kind of the point isn't it The OP used AI to organize material he's familiar with for efficiency's sake. That's responsible use imo You used it to fabricate an argument using football data you're clearly unfamiliar with...most people who follow the league would have known the Chiefs were certainly not blowing teams out to the tune of a +131 point differential Here is your unreviewed corrected version 1 minute later 🛑 “Three Strikes Against the Chiefs”? Why That Narrative Doesn’t Hold Up in 2025 The claim that the 2025 Kansas City Chiefs are doomed due to historical red flags — perfect record in one-score games, three straight Super Bowl appearances, and a blowout loss in the big game — sounds compelling on the surface. But when you look at the actual facts of Kansas City’s 2024 campaign, the argument doesn’t just fall apart — it misses the point entirely. ❌ Strike One? The One-Score Game “Luck” Fallacy Claim: 11 one-score wins = inevitable regression. Reality: The Chiefs were 15-2 in the regular season and 2-1 in the postseason, finishing 17-3 overall — and their one-score wins weren’t “lucky” squeakers from a mediocre team. Kansas City never scored more than 30 points in regulation all season yet still went 15-1 with starters. That’s not luck — that’s dominance in execution, defense, and game control. Their +59 point differential doesn’t tell the whole story. They held 15 opponents under 24 points, and went undefeated at home — a first since 2003. Their clutch wins weren’t from fluky comebacks. They led wire-to-wire or controlled most of those games with elite situational defense and special teams. Context matters: Unlike the 2022 Vikings or 2015 Panthers, the Chiefs had league-best coaching, a championship-caliber defense, and a Hall of Fame QB. Their wins didn’t rely on coin flips — they relied on execution under pressure. ❌ Strike Two? Three Straight Super Bowl Appearances = Decline? Claim: No team has made three straight Super Bowls and won the third. Reality: No team has ever entered its third straight Super Bowl with Kansas City’s resume of active dominance. The Chiefs: Went 15-1 with starters. Won the AFC West for the ninth consecutive time. Hosted the AFC Championship for the seventh straight year. Became the first team in history to go back-to-back and then return for a third Super Bowl — something the Dolphins, Patriots, and Bills didn’t do. Went undefeated at home, won 10 conference games, and beat both Buffalo and Baltimore en route to the Super Bowl. Translation: They’re not limping into the history books — they’re rewriting them. ❌ Strike Three? A Blowout Loss = Collapse? Claim: Teams who get blown out in the Super Bowl rarely bounce back. Reality: Kansas City’s 40-22 loss to Philly looks bad on paper — but dig into the context: Kansas City turned the ball over three times in the first half, including a pick-six and a red zone interception. They were down 24-0 before halftime — not because they were overmatched, but because of executional miscues. Mahomes still finished with 3 TDs and 300+ yards. The Chiefs outscored the Eagles 22-16 in the second half, even with Philly pulling starters. This team has bounced back before: Lost Super Bowl LV → Back in the Super Bowl two years later. Lost 2021 AFC title game → Back-to-back titles in 2022 and 2023. A one-game loss — even in the Super Bowl — doesn’t negate a 17-3 season where they handled elite competition weekly. Quote
90sBills Posted July 31 Posted July 31 This will either be an epic post by the end of the season or it will comedy gold. 1 Quote
Mr. WEO Posted July 31 Posted July 31 4 hours ago, BillytheKid said: (I wrote this…This is why I don’t think KC makes the playoffs or if they do they get beat in the Wildcard round.) Three Strikes Against the Chiefs: Why History Says 2025 Could Be a Fall from Grace The Kansas City Chiefs enter the 2025 season with a résumé unmatched in modern NFL history: three straight Super Bowl appearances, back-to-back titles in 2022–23 and 2023–24, and a flawless 11-0 record in one-score games last season — only to lose the Super Bowl by 18 points. But beneath the surface of this dominance lies a convergence of three historical red flags — and no team has ever faced all three at once. --- ⚠️ Red Flag #1: Undefeated in One-Score Games Teams that dominate one-score games often regress hard the following season. The margin for error is razor-thin, and luck tends to even out. • 2022 Vikings: 11-0 → 7-10, missed playoffs • 2015 Panthers: 10-0 → 6-10, missed playoffs • 1998 Falcons: 9-0 Super Bowl loss → 5-11, missed playoffs • 2020 Steelers: 8-0 → Wildcard loss • 2006 Colts: 9-0 Won Super Bowl → Lost in divisional round Historical hit rate: • ✅ ~40% chance to make playoffs • ❌ 0% chance to reach the AFC Championship the following year --- 🏆 Red Flag #2: Three Straight Super Bowl Appearances Only three other teams have made it to three straight Super Bowls prior to KC. None of them won the Super Bowl the following year. • 1971–73 Dolphins: Lost in divisional round after winning back to back Super Bowls. • 1990–93 Bills: Missed playoffs after fourth straight appearance• Note: They did return to the Super Bowl after their third straight, but they had never won two in a row or gone undefeated in one-score games the year prior — unlike Kansas City. • 2016–18 Patriots: Lost in Wildcard round Kansas City (2023-25) Only one out of these 4 teams to go 11-0 in one score games the previous year. Historical hit rate: • ✅ 100% chance to make playoffs • ⚠️ ~33% chance to return to the Super Bowl • ❌ 0% chance to win it --- 💥 Red Flag #3: Losing a Super Bowl by 14+ Points Teams that get blown out in the Super Bowl rarely bounce back strong. Since 2000, here’s what happened the following year: • 2000 Giants: Missed playoffs • 2002 Raiders: Missed playoffs • 2014 Broncos: Lost in divisional round • 2015 Panthers: Missed playoffs • 2021 Chiefs: Lost AFC Championship• Only team to return to the AFC title game — but they hadn’t gone undefeated in one-score games the year prior. • 2025 Chiefs: Lost by 18 points — results pending Historical hit rate: • ⚠️ ~20–30% chance to make playoffs • ❌ ~10% chance to reach AFC Championship • ❌ ~0–3% chance to return to Super Bowl --- 📉 The Verdict: No Precedent, No Safety Net Each of these trends alone has historically spelled trouble. But no team has ever entered a season with all three stacked against them. Kansas City is the first. 📊 Combined Odds Based on Historical Precedent Outcome Estimated Odds Make Playoffs 25–35% Reach AFC Championship 5–10% Make Super Bowl 0–3% Win Super Bowl 0% 🔮 Prediction: The Fall Is Coming History doesn’t just whisper — it screams. The Chiefs are walking into a statistical buzzsaw. If the past is any guide, they’ll either miss the playoffs entirely or exit early in the Wildcard round. Betting man like myself, odds of Chiefs not making playoffs anywhere from +290 to +310 or take Baltimore and Buffalo winning the AFC Championship both at +350. Statistically meaningless comparisons. 2020 Steelers? Since 2016, Tomlin has turned into the worst playoff coach in the NFL. They are 0-5 the past 9 seasons, with one and dones in 2020, 2021, 2023, 2024. The 2020 season isn't a meaningful data point for your purposes. 2006 Colts? They had one and done postseasons not just in 2007--under Dungy, despite HOF talent all over the field, exited without a win in 2002, 2005, 2008 as well. No HC in history squandered a more talented roster in the postseason Quote
PoundingDog Posted July 31 Posted July 31 I just have one argument: when unprecedent history is being made, all conclusions based on previous history data is irrelevant. And Chiefs is on an unprecedent run RIGHT NOW - on a 7 consecutive AFC Championship game appearance streak, and 5 superbowl appearances from those AFC championship games, winning 3 superbowls. But nothing lasts forever. So they streak is going to end, especially for football how the ball bounces and how the injury impacts teams. The Chiefs have been pretty lucky in terms injuries to their biggest stars. Their biggest advantage has been their division. The Chiefs are 30-6 in AFCW last 6 years (The Bills 27-9). Coming to think of it, didn't the Patriots dominated the AFCE during Brady's run? I think the Chargers and Broncos will push the Chiefs like never before. The Ravens may have to fight thru AFCN more than the Bills (assuming the Patriots does not make too much of a jump). Overall, teams who are close fighting the Chiefs in the past are getting closer, younger with how the draft is set up. I do feel the Bills and Allen this year are matured enough, more than ever, to be ready to go toe-to-toe with them without throwing prayers. Quote
Utah John Posted August 1 Posted August 1 3 hours ago, BillytheKid said: Add on to all of that the San Diego and Denver will both be a lot better and I think Kelce will suck this year and KC will struggle more than people think. I'm not sure which team I think will be better, Los Angeles (ahem) or Denver, but I think they'll both be better than the Chiefs. Not because of all the historical trends that the Chiefs are contending with, but because the Chiefs roster is accumulating holes faster than they can fill them. While the Chargers and Broncos are building. All three teams have great coaches so that's a wash. If there's a single trend the Chiefs won't be able to overcome, it's the growing awareness around the country that the Chiefs have been getting favorable calls for years, and it's not likely the refs will carry that trend forward, not with all the scrutiny the talking heads will apply. 1 1 Quote
strive_for_five_guy Posted August 1 Posted August 1 4 hours ago, Zerovoltz said: Before I get run out of town.......I think the Bills breakthrough this year. (and that's becasue I assume Bosa was the missing piece). The Chiefs are 2-0 in the Mahomes era, in playoff games, where the oppsing team blocks a punt for a touchdown. Mahomes is 5-1 in playoff games where KC failed to force a turnover. I think only one other QB (brady) even has a winning record in that case. The entire rest of the NFL history has no QB's with a winning record in that case. ...I can go on. The Mahomes/Reid Chiefs, do stuff that you normally don't do and expect to win. some is luck, some is that there great.... but reading through your stats....you don't account for a lot of things that provide context...lke the 2016 Broncos winning a Superbowl, with a bad and retiring Manning, then missing the playoffs with Trevor Simieon as the starting QB the next year? I could tear down the whole thing with stuff you didn't account for. Plus, you also have to account for the fact that the Refs are on the Chiefs side too, which counts for a lot. 2 Quote
dayman Posted August 1 Posted August 1 Andy & Patrick are good and it’s a coaching and QB league so somebody is going to have to beat them and it’s sort of looking like us or the Ravens. So really those trends mean little compared to the two most important: - Bills Swiss cheese defense in playoffs - Ravens choke job in playoffs 1 1 Quote
The Wiz Posted August 1 Posted August 1 Hey @BillytheKid and @Mikie2times, what the weather going to be like in my area tomorrow? 1 Quote
scuba guy Posted August 1 Posted August 1 (edited) 6 hours ago, BuffaloBill said: (Andy Reid + Patrick Mahomes) X ((Steve Spagnolo + Chris Jones) + (Chiefs better special teams)) = problem for the Bills. Josh Allen can’t fix the equation on his own. The often talked about problem for the Bills is defense and then to a lessor extent less effective coaching on the Bills sideline and poorer Bills special teams. Plus you have to add in the refs poor spots And the rich girl singing. Yuk I said it Edited August 1 by scuba guy Quote
Wiz Posted August 1 Posted August 1 6 hours ago, BuffaloBill said: (Andy Reid + Patrick Mahomes) X ((Steve Spagnolo + Chris Jones) + (Chiefs better special teams)) = problem for the Bills. Josh Allen can’t fix the equation on his own. The often talked about problem for the Bills is defense and then to a lessor extent less effective coaching on the Bills sideline and poorer Bills special teams. Coaching is everything in the playoffs and Mcdipshit is in way over his head which explain his "deer in the headlights" look and horrendous game day coaching. He will never win a Super Bowl and we're stuck with him. Josh will take over Marino for the greatest qb never to win a Super Bowl unless he leaves to another team or Mcdipshit is ever fired. 1 1 1 Quote
Mikie2times Posted August 1 Posted August 1 46 minutes ago, The Wiz said: Hey @BillytheKid and @Mikie2times, what the weather going to be like in my area tomorrow? Ohhh The Wiz woke up with a stretch and a yawn, Looked outside — wait, where’s the lawn? Could be snowin’, could be rain, Could be sunshine on a candy cane! 1 Quote
GoBills808 Posted August 1 Posted August 1 18 hours ago, Mikie2times said: ❌ Strike Three? A Blowout Loss = Collapse? Claim: Teams who get blown out in the Super Bowl rarely bounce back. Reality: Kansas City’s 40-22 loss to Philly looks bad on paper — but dig into the context: Kansas City turned the ball over three times in the first half, including a pick-six and a red zone interception. They were down 24-0 before halftime — not because they were overmatched, but because of executional miscues. Mahomes still finished with 3 TDs and 300+ yards. The Chiefs outscored the Eagles 22-16 in the second half, even with Philly pulling starters. Quote
ganesh Posted August 2 Posted August 2 Their division has suddenly become very strong... The Broncos entered last years playoffs as a hot commodity before they were blown away by the Bills in the Wild Card. They will be more better in season 2 of Nix. The Chargers have a great coach and he is getting the best out of his team and QB...He will have his team compete harder in the division Pete Caroll is a wildcard and he could bring his magic to Vegas Quote
RoscoeParrish Posted August 2 Posted August 2 18 minutes ago, ganesh said: Their division has suddenly become very strong... The Broncos entered last years playoffs as a hot commodity before they were blown away by the Bills in the Wild Card. They will be more better in season 2 of Nix. The Chargers have a great coach and he is getting the best out of his team and QB...He will have his team compete harder in the division Pete Caroll is a wildcard and he could bring his magic to Vegas This stuff is said every year. In every division. how many years in a row have we heard that the Jets/Dolphins could be dangerous? Now it’s the Pats that could be dangerous. Despite that, anyone picking against the Bills to win their division? 1 1 Quote
BobbyC81 Posted August 2 Posted August 2 On 7/31/2025 at 2:24 PM, BillytheKid said: Add on to all of that the San Diego and Denver will both be a lot better and I think Kelce will suck this year and KC will struggle more than people think. Yeah, let us remember that in this Josh era, the one time they didn’t have to play KC in the playoffs, they got punked by Cincinnati. Quote
frostbitmic Posted August 2 Posted August 2 The Chiefs have become the patriots of yore, Until proven otherwise I expect them to be in the Super Bowl every year. Much like the patriots it seems that in crunch time all the calls go in the Chiefs favor, a 3rd and long incomplete pass turns into a 1st down because of Defensive holding on the other side of the field. I'd love for the Bills to be the AFC rep in the Super Bowl but I expect the Chiefs again. Between Kermit, Reid and Taylor Swift, the league can't get enough. 1 1 Quote
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