Keon Coleman success by route - Not pretty

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

That is not the only way to get open in the NFL. The Bills didn't draft Coleman because they expected him to totally transform his playing style and suddenly become a twitchy route runner. They drafted him because they thought he could develop the ability to use his size and strength to box out defenders and create leverage at the catch point, in addition to his YAC skills. And that is absolutely a viable skill set for high volume NFL WRs. Watch some of AJ Brown's signature plays in this past Super Bowl - he may not be clearly separating from Trent McDuffie but he bullies him so bad at the top of the route and at the catch point that it doesn't matter.

 

But it's this kind of thinking that makes a lot fans believe Elijah Moore, who was statistically one of the worst WRs in the NFL last year, is going to come in and thrive because he supposedly has good "separation metrics." Diggs had great separation metrics too and then got shut down annually by physical coverage in the playoffs when we needed him most. Coleman was presumably drafted to overcome this perennial thorn in our side.

 

I know nobody wants to be patient with young players but that was always going to be necessary with Coleman's skill set. He was not drafted to be a year one difference maker which is why he fell to the top of the 2nd. He was drafted with a long term development plan in mind. He had a two game stretch of Tennessee to Seattle where you saw a glimpse of his high ceiling, and then it all came crashing down. The question is not whether Coleman's skill set is capable of producing at a high volume, the question is if he will develop his skill set enough to hit that ceiling.

Can we stop with the excuses for him and Kincaid?  So  we waste more of Allen's career hoping these projects develop?  

 

I would have rather traded draft picks for veterans or just signed FA'S.

 

Our window has been open and will be closing sooner than later. Or Draft guys who can come tribute immediately like BTJ or McConkey.

[Einstein]

3 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

 

 

It's up for debate whether Coleman is "too slow" to succeed in the NFL but you appear to be too fast as far as jumping to conclusions.

 

To quote Beane - there is testing speed and there is football speed.

Paint dries faster than it takes Coleman to make it down a football field.

[Sierra Foothills]

11 minutes ago, Einstein said:

To quote Beane - there is testing speed and there is football speed.

Paint dries faster than it takes Coleman to make it down a football field.

 

I'm not gonna debate... I'm gonna wait.

 

[SoonerBillsFan]

There is no way around this, the excuses need to stop, both Coleman and Kincaid need to take big leaps in play this year.  

[Doc Brown]

16 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Can we stop with the excuses for him and Kincaid?  So  we waste more of Allen's career hoping these projects develop?  

 

I would have rather traded draft picks for veterans or just signed FA'S.

 

Our window has been open and will be closing sooner than later. Or Draft guys who can come tribute immediately like BTJ or McConkey.

Kincaid is the most obvious player Beane's drafted that will make a huge jump his third year (more obvious than Brown, Knox, Cook, T. Johnson, etc.).  Just watch last year's tape and please tell me how Allen/Brady weren't more to blame for Kincaid's struggles than Kincaid.

[SoTier]

 

4 hours ago, Billl said:

You wouldn’t have had to let Shakir walk after this year.  He could have been traded for a fourth which could have then been sent to Seattle along with a second for DK Metcalf.  The $25 million a year that will be used to pay Shakir and Palmer could have nearly paid for it.

 

The Bills didn't want DK Metcalf enough to trade for him.  Deal with it.

 

3 hours ago, 947 said:

Keon's top speed of 19.23mph in the WR drills is great, but that's long speed. In football, acceleration is much more important than long speed or top speed, his disappointing 40 time shows a lack of initial acceleration. For a WR to get open quickly, he needs acceleration & suddenness, and that area has proven to be the weakest part of Keon's game. He does a lot of other things well, but if he can't improve on his initial acceleration, he'll continue to struggle getting open.

 

Actually, the gauntlet drill focuses on a WR or TE's ability to focus on the ball while moving and changing direction.  Receivers zig zag across the field while trying to catch balls from multiple sources.  (I looked it up).

 

Running 40 yards in a straight line doesn't really test acceleration and suddenness because receivers don't run all out in a straight line for that long in actual games unless they've already caught the ball and are heading for the end zone.   It's only somewhat less useless than having linemen running 40 yards.

 

If you want to measure acceleration and suddenness, then you want something with shorter straight line runs and changes of direction.  The gauntlet drill seems to come closer to what a receiver might actually do in a game.

 

1 hour ago, noacls17 said:

This Moore love is hilarious.  He is only 5'9" 183. He has been on 3 teams in 5 years.  Not a good look, must be a reason.

 

Because Beane didn't draft him, he can't be used as "evidence" of why Beane is a failure.

 

 

Edited 6 hours ago by SoTier

[oldmanfan]

4 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

There is no way around this, the excuses need to stop, both Coleman and Kincaid need to take big leaps in play this year.  

Injuries aren’t excuses.  Injuries are injuries.  

[Doc Brown]

Just now, SoTier said:

The Bills didn't want DK Metcalf enough to trade for him.  Deal with it.

No.  I'm taking to to the grave with me.  Same goes for not aggressively pursuing Hopkins when he was still elite going to the Titans when the Bills could've made it work salary wise when we were desperate for outside WR talent.  A guy that could've been that could've been that true difference maker down three with three something minutes ago against the Chiefs two years in a row.  

6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Injuries aren’t excuses.  Injuries are injuries.  

So, if Josh Allen is out for the year we can't use that as an excuse?  Seems a little unfair to Trubisky.

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

No.  I'm taking to to the grave with me.  Same goes for not aggressively pursuing Hopkins when he was still elite going to the Titans when the Bills could've made it work salary wise when we were desperate for outside WR talent.  A guy that could've been that could've been that true difference maker down three with three something minutes ago against the Chiefs two years in a row.  

So, if Josh Allen is out for the year we can't use that as an excuse?  Seems a little unfair to Trubisky.

If either Coleman or Kincaid had been injured and out for the year we wouldn’t have all the crap this entire off-season.  Because people would realize you can’t be critical of a guy who lost a season to injury.  If Josh had gotten hurt and tried to play through it as Kincaid did, and his performance suffered, you bet everyone here would excuse it.

[BillytheKid]

1 hour ago, noacls17 said:

This Moore love is hilarious.  He is only 5'9" 183. He has been on 3 teams in 5 years.  Not a good look, must be a reason.

I’m not saying I’m in love with Moore but he has proven “Moore” than Coleman has. 
 

The average drop rate for a receiver or TE in the NFL is 6.7% of catchable balls. 
 

Coleman had almost twice that of a drop rate. He was targeted 33 times and dropped 4 of them. Plus his route running hasn’t been the best. 
 

You may say well it’s only 4 dropped balls but when it’s almost twice that of the average receiver it’s a big deal. If he gets targeted more than 33 times and his drop rate stays the same then it’s going to be a problem. 
 

Moores drop rate was only 4.9% which is below the league average and he had 61 receptions last year to Coleman’s 29 and Moore had far worse QB’s. Yeah Coleman missed a couple games but he wasn’t getting anywhere close to 61 receptions. 
 

I am hoping Coleman steps up and is great by all means. My point is so far he hasn’t proven much of anything based on actual advanced stats. 
 

I want the best receivers on the team out there. 
 

If that’s Coleman by all means step up and show it. I am not biased on who the starting receivers are as long as they do their jobs. 

[SoTier]

3 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

No.  I'm taking to to the grave with me.  Same goes for not aggressively pursuing Hopkins when he was still elite going to the Titans when the Bills could've made it work salary wise when we were desperate for outside WR talent.  A guy that could've been that could've been that true difference maker down three with three something minutes ago against the Chiefs two years in a row. 

 

Are you saying that Metcalf has never dropped a pass??????

 

IMO, if the Bills could have stopped KC on any of their fourth quarter scoring drives, there would have been no need for late game heroics by the Bills offense in either of the last two years.

[SoonerBillsFan]

26 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Kincaid is the most obvious player Beane's drafted that will make a huge jump his third year (more obvious than Brown, Knox, Cook, T. Johnson, etc.).  Just watch last year's tape and please tell me how Allen/Brady weren't more to blame for Kincaid's struggles than Kincaid.

So it's Allen's fault?  The guy who is the MVP and threw less interceptions that at any point in his career?  Jesus...

[DapperCam]

16 hours ago, BillytheKid said:

I’ve already said it in another thread. Coleman is the receiver fighting for the final roster spot. 
 

Shakir, Palmer, Moore, Samuels are all making it. 5th spot will be between Coleman and whoever else. 
 

Beane and McDermott were not happy with him. He is not a lock to make the team as many seem to think IMO. Unless he really really makes a jump from last year. 

Moore is not a gimme to make the roster.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

8 minutes ago, BillytheKid said:

I’m not saying I’m in love with Moore but he has proven “Moore” than Coleman has. 
 

The average drop rate for a receiver or TE in the NFL is 6.7% of catchable balls. 
 

Coleman had almost twice that of a drop rate. He was targeted 33 times and dropped 4 of them. Plus his route running hasn’t been the best. 
 

You may say well it’s only 4 dropped balls but when it’s almost twice that of the average receiver it’s a big deal. If he gets targeted more than 33 times and his drop rate stays the same then it’s going to be a problem. 
 

Moores drop rate was only 4.9% which is below the league average and he had 61 receptions last year to Coleman’s 29 and Moore had far worse QB’s. Yeah Coleman missed a couple games but he wasn’t getting anywhere close to 61 receptions. 
 

I am hoping Coleman steps up and is great by all means. My point is so far he hasn’t proven much of anything based on actual advanced stats. 
 

I want the best receivers on the team out there. 
 

If that’s Coleman by all means step up and show it. I am not biased on who the starting receivers are as long as they do their jobs. 

 

If he drops them at the same rate this season then I'll be worried, Jerry Rice dropped a bunch of passes his rookie year (not saying they are 1 in the same) but this should improve drastically in year 2, if not then there is clearly a problem.

[SoonerBillsFan]

23 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Injuries aren’t excuses.  Injuries are injuries.  

Although McDermott called out Coleman for how he was / approached things post injuries.  

 

Excuses after excuses.

[BillsFanForever19]

2 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Can we stop with the excuses for him and Kincaid?  So  we waste more of Allen's career hoping these projects develop?  

 

I would have rather traded draft picks for veterans or just signed FA'S.

 

Our window has been open and will be closing sooner than later. Or Draft guys who can come tribute immediately like BTJ or McConkey.

 

He's had 2 years in the league. A pretty solid Rookie campaign and a step back in his Sophomore year. Which isn't uncommon. That's why the term "Sophomore Slump" exists. 

 

You don't take a guy in Round 1 and then trade him away for peanuts after just 2 seasons. You give a 1st at least 3 years. Whatever we could have got for him after his year last season wouldn't be much different after this season if we decide to move on. 

 

Joe Marino put it best on his podcast: "As far as trading Kincaid, I am far more concerned with missing out on Dalton Kincaid's potential ceiling than gaining whatever minimal Draft capital you would get by trading him now".

 

Not everyone develops quickly. There were posters who argued Khalil Shakir brought nothing to the table and should have been cut after his Rookie season for Andy Isabella. Posters who felt Spencer Brown should have been benched or traded. Dion Dawkins had people here saying he should have been traded during the 2023 offseason bc he was underwhelming and looked "fat". Terrel Bernard was a "wasted pick". James Cook was looked at as a liability after his Rookie year. 

 

You have to give guys more than a year or two before you determine what they definitively are or aren't. And the higher the investment, the longer the rope. Hell, Elam was given 3 years and he couldn't even get on the field.

Edited 4 hours ago by BillsFanForever19

[Kirby Jackson]

4 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I repeat, why assume he won’t?

I’m not assuming that he will and I’m not assuming that he won’t. So far, he’s been exactly as advertised. His strengths coming out were his strengths and his flaws were his flaws. I HOPE he improves. I’m not assuming it or not assuming it. 

[oldmanfan]

16 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m not assuming that he will and I’m not assuming that he won’t. So far, he’s been exactly as advertised. His strengths coming out were his strengths and his flaws were his flaws. I HOPE he improves. I’m not assuming it or not assuming it. 

Glad you’re not.  I wish more fans had your attitude.

[st pete gogolak]

Some of the comments on this thread are pretty silly. Bills aren’t cutting Coleman this year. I doubt he will be out of the league in 3 - 5 years.  He certainly has the talent to be a productive NFL receiver for a long time.  To me, the key is using him correctly. I’m in the camp of those who think he can flourish as a big slot receiver. That may not end up being in Buffalo but some team will be able to utilize his skill set.

 

i’ve commented before that it would have been very, very difficult to trade up to obtain BTJ in Coleman’s draft year. In hindsight, would our #1 and Kincaid been enough to get it done?  Fan base would have been screaming following Kincaid’s solid rookie season but Bills don’t seem to have any interest in a two TE set so Knox and Kincaid seem redundant at this point.

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

The Bills didn't want DK Metcalf enough to trade for him.  Deal with it.

 

... @Billl's a Chiefs fan lol