Keon Coleman success by route - Not pretty

[BillytheKid]

3 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

 

 

Dude was our clear 2nd best WR last year and now is getting cut?

I didn’t say he was getting cut. He most likely is the 5th receiver. They have brought in 2 guys better than him this off-season based on what they have proven in the NFL and Samuel's has also proven a lot more in the league than Coleman has. 

 

He also wasn’t the 2nd best receiver. He may have ended up with the 2nd most yards or whatever but his overall efficiency was terrible! He will most likely make the team but he isn’t making it above the 4 other guys I listed.

 

Lots of people seem to think Moore is going to have a chance to get cut and there is no way that is happening. They didn’t bring him in to get cut when he has proven FAR more than Coleman has and did it with a lot worse QB’s.

 

 

9 hours ago, bearstobills said:

This is flat out laughable. 

Not laughable at all. 
 

I’ll repeat what I posted to someone else. 
 

I didn’t say he was getting cut. He most likely is the 5th receiver. They have brought in 2 guys better than him this off-season based on what they have proven in the NFL and Samuel's has also proven a lot more in the league than Coleman has. 

 

He also wasn’t the 2nd best receiver. He may have ended up with the 2nd most yards or whatever but his overall efficiency was terrible! He will most likely make the team but he isn’t making it above the 4 other guys I listed.

 

Lots of people seem to think Moore is going to have a chance to get cut and there is no way that is happening. They didn’t bring him in to get cut when he has proven FAR more than Coleman has and did it with a lot worse QB’s.

[SoonerBillsFan]

7 minutes ago, BillytheKid said:

I didn’t say he was getting cut. He most likely is the 5th receiver. They have brought in 2 guys better than him this off-season based on what they have proven in the NFL and Samuel's has also proven a lot more in the league than Coleman has. 

 

He also wasn’t the 2nd best receiver. He may have ended up with the 2nd most yards or whatever but his overall efficiency was terrible! He will most likely make the team but he isn’t making it above the 4 other guys I listed.

 

Lots of people seem to think Moore is going to have a chance to get cut and there is no way that is happening. They didn’t bring him in to get cut when he has proven FAR more than Coleman has and did it with a lot worse QB’s.

 

 

Not laughable at all. 
 

I’ll repeat what I posted to someone else. 
 

I didn’t say he was getting cut. He most likely is the 5th receiver. They have brought in 2 guys better than him this off-season based on what they have proven in the NFL and Samuel's has also proven a lot more in the league than Coleman has. 

 

He also wasn’t the 2nd best receiver. He may have ended up with the 2nd most yards or whatever but his overall efficiency was terrible! He will most likely make the team but he isn’t making it above the 4 other guys I listed.

 

Lots of people seem to think Moore is going to have a chance to get cut and there is no way that is happening. They didn’t bring him in to get cut when he has proven FAR more than Coleman has and did it with a lot worse QB’s.

As of right now he is the 5th WR, not on the depth chart right now, but as for as play he is.

 

As you said Shakir,Moore, Palmer are ahead, Samuel will be if he is 100%

 

Homeristic fans don't want to hear this as we drafted the guy in the 2nd round. "But he's young".  The NFL and NFL DB'S don't give a damn.

PERFORM or else.

 

If he doesn't step up massively this offseason, our starting 3 are Moore,Palmer and Shakir.  

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, BillytheKid said:

I didn’t say he was getting cut. He most likely is the 5th receiver. They have brought in 2 guys better than him this off-season based on what they have proven in the NFL and Samuel's has also proven a lot more in the league than Coleman has. 

 

He also wasn’t the 2nd best receiver. He may have ended up with the 2nd most yards or whatever but his overall efficiency was terrible! He will most likely make the team but he isn’t making it above the 4 other guys I listed.

 

Lots of people seem to think Moore is going to have a chance to get cut and there is no way that is happening. They didn’t bring him in to get cut when he has proven FAR more than Coleman has and did it with a lot worse QB’s.

 

 

Not laughable at all. 
 

I’ll repeat what I posted to someone else. 
 

I didn’t say he was getting cut. He most likely is the 5th receiver. They have brought in 2 guys better than him this off-season based on what they have proven in the NFL and Samuel's has also proven a lot more in the league than Coleman has. 

 

He also wasn’t the 2nd best receiver. He may have ended up with the 2nd most yards or whatever but his overall efficiency was terrible! He will most likely make the team but he isn’t making it above the 4 other guys I listed.

 

Lots of people seem to think Moore is going to have a chance to get cut and there is no way that is happening. They didn’t bring him in to get cut when he has proven FAR more than Coleman has and did it with a lot worse QB’s.

I think the point of Brady’s philosophy is there isn’t a WR 1,2,3 etc.  it’s that you have a group of guys you can scheme with against the defense he’s playing against.

Edited 3 hours ago by oldmanfan

[HappyDays]

50 minutes ago, 947 said:

For a WR to get open quickly, he needs acceleration & suddenness, and that area has proven to be the weakest part of Keon's game. He does a lot of other things well, but if he can't improve on his initial acceleration, he'll continue to struggle getting open.

 

That is not the only way to get open in the NFL. The Bills didn't draft Coleman because they expected him to totally transform his playing style and suddenly become a twitchy route runner. They drafted him because they thought he could develop the ability to use his size and strength to box out defenders and create leverage at the catch point, in addition to his YAC skills. And that is absolutely a viable skill set for high volume NFL WRs. Watch some of AJ Brown's signature plays in this past Super Bowl - he may not be clearly separating from Trent McDuffie but he bullies him so bad at the top of the route and at the catch point that it doesn't matter.

 

But it's this kind of thinking that makes a lot fans believe Elijah Moore, who was statistically one of the worst WRs in the NFL last year, is going to come in and thrive because he supposedly has good "separation metrics." Diggs had great separation metrics too and then got shut down annually by physical coverage in the playoffs when we needed him most. Coleman was presumably drafted to overcome this perennial thorn in our side.

 

I know nobody wants to be patient with young players but that was always going to be necessary with Coleman's skill set. He was not drafted to be a year one difference maker which is why he fell to the top of the 2nd. He was drafted with a long term development plan in mind. He had a two game stretch of Tennessee to Seattle where you saw a glimpse of his high ceiling, and then it all came crashing down. The question is not whether Coleman's skill set is capable of producing at a high volume, the question is if he will develop his skill set enough to hit that ceiling.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

15 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That is not the only way to get open in the NFL. The Bills didn't draft Coleman because they expected him to totally transform his playing style and suddenly become a twitchy route runner. They drafted him because they thought he could develop the ability to use his size and strength to box out defenders and create leverage at the catch point, in addition to his YAC skills. And that is absolutely a viable skill set for high volume NFL WRs. Watch some of AJ Brown's signature plays in this past Super Bowl - he may not be clearly separating from Trent McDuffie but he bullies him so bad at the top of the route and at the catch point that it doesn't matter.

 

But it's this kind of thinking that makes a lot fans believe Elijah Moore, who was statistically one of the worst WRs in the NFL last year, is going to come in and thrive because he supposedly has good "separation metrics." Diggs had great separation metrics too and then got shut down annually by physical coverage in the playoffs when we needed him most. Coleman was presumably drafted to overcome this perennial thorn in our side.

 

I know nobody wants to be patient with young players but that was always going to be necessary with Coleman's skill set. He was not drafted to be a year one difference maker which is why he fell to the top of the 2nd. He was drafted with a long term development plan in mind. He had a two game stretch of Tennessee to Seattle where you saw a glimpse of his high ceiling, and then it all came crashing down. The question is not whether Coleman's skill set is capable of producing at a high volume, the question is if he will develop his skill set enough to hit that ceiling.

I don't blame the fans for being impatient because if he was drafted as a long-term project and not expected to make an impact then the Bills should have had far more talent and depth at WR.

 

The Bills, because of their own poor management over the last 5-7 years, NEED Keon Coleman to be an impact player-- they needed it last year too and failed to accomplish the ultimate goal when it didn't happen. 

 

It's not the fans' fault, it's Sean McDermott, Brandon Beane, and ultimately Terry Pegula's fault.

[1997WS6]

1 minute ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

I don't blame the fans for being impatient because if he was drafted as a long-term project and not expected to make an impact then the Bills should have had far more talent and depth at WR.

 

The Bills, because of their own poor management over the last 5-7 years, NEED Keon Coleman to be an impact player-- they needed it last year too and failed to accomplish the ultimate goal when it didn't happen. 

 

It's not the fans' fault, it's Sean McDermott, Brandon Beane, and ultimately Terry Pegula's fault.

I have a hard time understanding this take.  We are now a perennial contender that scored a ton of points last year, and upgraded our receivers in my opinion, and we're going to talk about poor management?  Not me.  I'll take this regime over the drought.

 

[HappyDays]

Just now, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

I don't blame the fans for being impatient because if he was drafted as a long-term project and not expected to make an impact then the Bills should have had far more talent and depth at WR.

 

The Bills, because of their own poor management over the last 5-7 years, NEED Keon Coleman to be an impact player-- they needed it last year too and failed to accomplish the ultimate goal when it didn't happen. 

 

It's not the fans' fault, it's Sean McDermott, Brandon Beane, and ultimately Terry Pegula's fault.

 

Yeah I agree with that FWIW. They set Coleman up to fail by having no backup plan in place and not enough talent around him to draw attention. If they expected him to hit the ground running that was a mistake. To be fair, Coleman is also responsible for his own failures in the back half of the season if it's true that he didn't attack his rehab as vigorously as he needed to.

[3rdand12]

31 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I think the point of Brady’s philosophy is there isn’t a WR 1,2,3 etc.  it’s that you have a group of guys you can scheme with against the defense he’s playing if against.

That has been true.

But each has to perform in their role

 Coleman has much to prove

 But certainly much to early call him a bust

29 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That is not the only way to get open in the NFL. The Bills didn't draft Coleman because they expected him to totally transform his playing style and suddenly become a twitchy route runner. They drafted him because they thought he could develop the ability to use his size and strength to box out defenders and create leverage at the catch point, in addition to his YAC skills. And that is absolutely a viable skill set for high volume NFL WRs. Watch some of AJ Brown's signature plays in this past Super Bowl - he may not be clearly separating from Trent McDuffie but he bullies him so bad at the top of the route and at the catch point that it doesn't matter.

 

But it's this kind of thinking that makes a lot fans believe Elijah Moore, who was statistically one of the worst WRs in the NFL last year, is going to come in and thrive because he supposedly has good "separation metrics." Diggs had great separation metrics too and then got shut down annually by physical coverage in the playoffs when we needed him most. Coleman was presumably drafted to overcome this perennial thorn in our side.

 

I know nobody wants to be patient with young players but that was always going to be necessary with Coleman's skill set. He was not drafted to be a year one difference maker which is why he fell to the top of the 2nd. He was drafted with a long term development plan in mind. He had a two game stretch of Tennessee to Seattle where you saw a glimpse of his high ceiling, and then it all came crashing down. The question is not whether Coleman's skill set is capable of producing at a high volume, the question is if he will develop his skill set enough to hit that ceiling.

A fine post here . thanks

[Shaw66]

18 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That is not the only way to get open in the NFL. The Bills didn't draft Coleman because they expected him to totally transform his playing style and suddenly become a twitchy route runner. They drafted him because they thought he could develop the ability to use his size and strength to box out defenders and create leverage at the catch point, in addition to his YAC skills. And that is absolutely a viable skill set for high volume NFL WRs. Watch some of AJ Brown's signature plays in this past Super Bowl - he may not be clearly separating from Trent McDuffie but he bullies him so bad at the top of the route and at the catch point that it doesn't matter.

 

But it's this kind of thinking that makes a lot fans believe Elijah Moore, who was statistically one of the worst WRs in the NFL last year, is going to come in and thrive because he supposedly has good "separation metrics." Diggs had great separation metrics too and then got shut down annually by physical coverage in the playoffs when we needed him most. Coleman was presumably drafted to overcome this perennial thorn in our side.

 

I know nobody wants to be patient with young players but that was always going to be necessary with Coleman's skill set. He was not drafted to be a year one difference maker which is why he fell to the top of the 2nd. He was drafted with a long term development plan in mind. He had a two game stretch of Tennessee to Seattle where you saw a glimpse of his high ceiling, and then it all came crashing down. The question is not whether Coleman's skill set is capable of producing at a high volume, the question is if he will develop his skill set enough to hit that ceiling.

I haven't read very much of this thread, because I agree with Happy here.  There are a lot of really interesting arguments being made one way or another, but I think the real answer is that Beane and McDermott saw exactly what they getting and they saw a fit based on what they want the receiver room to look like.  Now, that plan for the receiver room may be a bad plan and won't work well, but we at least can be sure that (1) they knew what they were getting and (2) they had reasons for taking a guy with the limitations that several people are pointing out here. 

 

Second, my view of the 2025 draft now makes me see the 2024 a little more clearly. I think the draft philosophy generally is take guys with solid floors and intriguing high ceilings. I think the first four picks in 2025 follow that rule, and Coleman, Bishop, Carter, Davis do too.  The disappointing think about Coleman to date is that least his floor was at least shaky.  We haven't yet seen whether he can reach a high ceiling. 

 

As for Kincaid, we'll see. He showed a better floor as a rookie, but showed no progress last season. Injuries may have caused that.  So, for both Kincaid and Coleman, this is a big season.  I think we'll see at least one of them go off. 

[Doc Brown]

51 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

As of right now he is the 5th WR, not on the depth chart right now, but as for as play he is.

 

As you said Shakir,Moore, Palmer are ahead, Samuel will be if he is 100%

 

Homeristic fans don't want to hear this as we drafted the guy in the 2nd round. "But he's young".  The NFL and NFL DB'S don't give a damn.

PERFORM or else.

 

If he doesn't step up massively this offseason, our starting 3 are Moore,Palmer and Shakir.  

I really don't get the Moore hype and that would be disappointing if Coleman wasn't the week 1 starter.  His rookie year he was basically tied for the lead in snap count percentage per game started with Hollins among WR's.  I'm guessing it will be mostly a three man rotation (Coleman, Palmer, Samuel) for our outside WR spots in 11 and 12 personnel formations.  

Edited 4 hours ago by Doc Brown

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

6 hours ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

None of these are really fair as Keon didn't get a full season under his belt. I think the whole comparison is totally unfair and Keon will get more opportunities to prove himself.

 

None of them other than Addonai Mitchell played a full season and Mitchell didn't not start any of them from what I can tell or see.

[Doc Brown]

8 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Ok, the Bills should have drafted McConkey and let Shakir go, saving 10M/yr the next 4 years .  There I did it.

That is kind of a fun hypothetical for this year.  I'd make the assumption they brought Hollins back if they drafted McConkey. 

 

Who'd you rather have as WR's in 11 personnel... 

Coleman, Shakir, Palmer/Samuel or Hollins, McConkey, Palmer/Samuel?

[noacls17]

1 hour ago, BillytheKid said:

I didn’t say he was getting cut. He most likely is the 5th receiver. They have brought in 2 guys better than him this off-season based on what they have proven in the NFL and Samuel's has also proven a lot more in the league than Coleman has. 

 

He also wasn’t the 2nd best receiver. He may have ended up with the 2nd most yards or whatever but his overall efficiency was terrible! He will most likely make the team but he isn’t making it above the 4 other guys I listed.

 

Lots of people seem to think Moore is going to have a chance to get cut and there is no way that is happening. They didn’t bring him in to get cut when he has proven FAR more than Coleman has and did it with a lot worse QB’s.

 

 

Not laughable at all. 
 

I’ll repeat what I posted to someone else. 
 

I didn’t say he was getting cut. He most likely is the 5th receiver. They have brought in 2 guys better than him this off-season based on what they have proven in the NFL and Samuel's has also proven a lot more in the league than Coleman has. 

 

He also wasn’t the 2nd best receiver. He may have ended up with the 2nd most yards or whatever but his overall efficiency was terrible! He will most likely make the team but he isn’t making it above the 4 other guys I listed.

 

Lots of people seem to think Moore is going to have a chance to get cut and there is no way that is happening. They didn’t bring him in to get cut when he has proven FAR more than Coleman has and did it with a lot worse QB’s.

This Moore love is hilarious.  He is only 5'9" 183. He has been on 3 teams in 5 years.  Not a good look, must be a reason.

[ShakAttack]

A lot of fans also wanted Leggette or AD Mitchell.  Funny that I only see the comparisons to Ladd though.

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, ShakAttack said:

A lot of fans also wanted Leggette or AD Mitchell.  Funny that I only see the comparisons to Ladd though.

Since childhood we always want the toy the other kid has

[Paup 1995MVP]

19 hours ago, Bruffalo said:

McConkey had about double the target share than Coleman.  If you take Coleman's stat production and (unscientifically) extrapolate that to McConkey's target share they'd have almost identical stats.

 

I'm probably higher on Coleman still than most. He's got so much room to grow and he's in arguably the best organization in the NFL to do that.

He got probably close to a dozen targets in the last game of the regular season against the Pats.  And looked awful.  Hopefully he shows dramatic improvement this season-same with Dalton Kincaid.  
 

I don’t get the talk about WR’s playing different positions.  It’s all running routes, beating your man, and catching a football. I think Jerry Rice could play inside or outside.  It’s really didn’t matter.  Unless your a little guy like Cole Beasley, a pro WR should be able to play inside or out and be a force every week.  
 

let’s hope Keon becomes that. But Wouldn’t that be something if the 7th round pick Prater became better than Coleman.  lol. Similar to a Benford-Elam situation.  It could happen.  But let’s hope they both become good NFL receivers.  

[Doc Brown]

9 minutes ago, ShakAttack said:

A lot of fans also wanted Leggette or AD Mitchell.  Funny that I only see the comparisons to Ladd though.

A lot of fans wanted Worthy too if we're going to be fair when looking back at this class five years from now.

[DCofNC]

24 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

That is kind of a fun hypothetical for this year.  I'd make the assumption they brought Hollins back if they drafted McConkey. 

 

Who'd you rather have as WR's in 11 personnel... 

Coleman, Shakir, Palmer/Samuel or Hollins, McConkey, Palmer/Samuel?

I love Shakir, he’s so tough.  I would prefer Shakir the player, but Ladd’s contract is more appealing.

[starrymessenger]

2 hours ago, 947 said:

Keon's top speed of 19.23mph in the WR drills is great, but that's long speed. In football, acceleration is much more important than long speed or top speed, his disappointing 40 time shows a lack of initial acceleration. For a WR to get open quickly, he needs acceleration & suddenness, and that area has proven to be the weakest part of Keon's game. He does a lot of other things well, but if he can't improve on his initial acceleration, he'll continue to struggle getting open.

His 10 and 20 yard splits are good. In fact his 10 yard split (1.54) is excellent. That's where you look for initial burst. It's likely the last 20 yards of his 40 that is slow.

[BillsFanForever19]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

You can’t make that assumption.  Just because LA used him inside at the snap is not an indication that’s how he be used in Buffalo.  LA had outside receivers when Ladd was drafted.  
 

Buffalo needed outside help.  Had they drafted Ladd he’d have been used where needed.  
 

The truth is where a WR starts on the line is less important than the routes he runs, the depth of his catches and where on the field the catch is made.  Shakir catches the ball inside 2-3 yards down the field.  That’s a slot receiver.  Ladd caught the ball on average over 9 yards down the field.  Shakir and Ladd are different kind of players.

 

Dude - McConkey was right there and they chose someone else. If they felt McConkey was just as good of a fit, they'd have taken him. He had Coleman on pretty much every metric, except for size and fit for what we needed.

 

It's funny that you're telling me I "can't make that assumption". Meanwhile, you're assuming that he can be a full time Outside WR - even though his Scouting Report said otherwise. Even though when he got to the league, he was used otherwise. Even when their Outside guys were less than desired. And even after losing one, rather than moving him there, they spent a 2nd Round Pick (a year after spending a 2nd on McConkey) for a True Outside WR and then also brought back Mike Williams as insurance.

 

As for your other point, you haven't seen Shakir catch the ball downfield? I can think of a number of times just off the top of my head. Offensive Scheme plays a large part in that metric as well. We run a scheme in which most of our plays are short to intermediate passing. The long ball isn't Josh's bread and butter. You know who does like that though? Justin Herbert. 

 

There are a number of Slot WR's that have longer average depth of target. That doesn't make them an Outside WR. This idea that you can take a guy that isn't even 50/50 on the Outside and make him a full time WR is the true assumption. One in which Scouts and his Drafting team have thus far not agreed with.

 

6 hours ago, Billl said:

McConkey is great, but it’s silly to blame Beane for passing on him, as there were plenty of reasons for doing so.  He was an older rookie, had an injury history, wasn’t overly productive in college, doesn’t have great size, and plays a position that was already set.  Did any of that ultimately matter?  No, but that’s pure hindsight.  If Coleman can return to, and build off of, what he was before his injury, he’s a perfectly good pick.  If he remains what he was post injury, he’s a bust.  In any event, the comparisons should be to guys like Worthy, Pearsall, Legette, and Mitchell.

 

Posters don't want to do that because most of them had a hard on for McConkey pre-Draft. Even before he was used as a predominantly slot WR by LA, they were being told that's what he was and refused to believe it. It's baffling to me that after they've seen it at the NFL level, they still argue that they know more than NFL Scouts and Coaches.

 

They also don't want to do that because if they compare Coleman to the WR's they should compare him to, they can't make the argument that it was a mistake to take him as well as they can by pointing to what McConkey did. Bc the stats of those guys are somewhere between marginally better than Coleman or worse than Coleman.

Edited 3 hours ago by BillsFanForever19