Is Ed Oliver still on the team by September?

[Augie]

This place might be easier to tolerate if we sucked, rather than entering the season as a SB favorite again. 

 

 

.

Edited 1 hour ago by Augie

[SoonerBillsFan]

Im Guessing yes

[uticaclub]

2 minutes ago, Augie said:

This place might be easier to tolerate of we sucked, rather than entering the season as a SB favorite again. 

This is our fifth year of being in the top five in odds without any actual appearances. If odds were always accurate, we would all be much richer. It's important to understand that odds reflect where gamblers choose to place their money, not necessarily where experts would place their bets. With the rise of legalized sports gambling, the market has become flooded with uninformed bets.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

Who do you have Oliver head of in rankings? 

 

2024 was not Ed's best year. I'm a huge fan of him, possibly the biggest on this board, and think he generally is undervalued by most Bills fans (and some neutral observers) but his performance for 2/3s of 2024 was below par. No question. He did turn it on down the stretch but he really underperformed by his standards for a fair chunk of last season. 

 

On that basis I wouldn't make a case for him over anyone in the top 10. I thought he was slighted not being in the top ten last year, but he doesn't have an argument for it this year. I would, however, still have him over everyone outside the top 10 - both in the "honourable mentions" and "also received votes" category (with Ed himself in the latter) with the possible exception of Kobie Turner, who is a stud, but isn't really a defensive tackle. He is a 3-4 defensive end. If he played for the Bills he'd be a guy who played mainly as a big end 5T and then reduced down into a 3T in pass rush situations. 

[JP51]

I don't think this is a bad question... I think he is absolutely here this year... but I think if he has another uninspired year  or two that they look to move him out at the most financially advantageous time in his contract thinking dead cap hit... 

Edited 5 hours ago by JP51

[Augie]

Just now, uticaclub said:

This is our fifth year of being in the top five in odds without any actual appearances. If odds were always accurate, we would all be much richer. It's important to understand that odds reflect where gamblers choose to place their money, not necessarily where experts would place their bets. With the rise of legalized sports gambling, the market has become flooded with uninformed bets.

 

So, we DO really suck? Thanks for clearing that up. 

 

[Shaw66]

I definitely do not study DTs, or even focus on Oliver's play all that much. 

 

But I was surprised last to see a quote last season from a head coach of a Bills' opponent who said that the offensive coordinator has to have a plan for handling Oliver on every play. The implication was that if you leave Oliver one-on-one more than occasionally, he will wreck the game. 

 

And beyond that, I think this discussion about Oliver under-performing as compared to other DTs, there are two important considerations:

 

1. The D-line rotation. Oliver doesn't get as many snaps as most other DTs, and that's not because he couldn't handle more - it's because as a matter of philosophy, McDermott won't give him more. And it isn't just snaps; it's also that where Oliver lines up from play to play changes, and who's beside him changes, too. 

 

2. McDermott's team-approach. Everyone is expected to be multiple, to be able to play different styles from game to game and even from play to play. There are no one-trick ponies on the Bills; each player has to be good at a lot of different skills that his position requires. They have to be jackknives. That's who the Bills draft, over and over, because that's what they want.  So, I would guess that the Bills are happy with Oliver, because he's great at what they want him to do, and they don't care that he isn't great in the way the fans want him to be. That is, the Bills don't mind that they don't have a single guy on the D line who is a true game wrecker. 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He isn’t great at creating his own opportunities. Football is a team sport, but the truly elite players can be individual gamewreckers and we have yet to see that out of Oliver with any consistency.

 

Not sure what went on with the formatting but that is @uticaclub's comment. I'm not sure it is quite right though. Ed creates a ton of his own opportunities. His underlying analytics in terms of pass rush win rates and pressures are in that second half of the top 10 territory. His issue actually is finishing. He is not an elite finisher. Maybe that is just the result of the shorter arms, I think a bit of it is that real killer instinct... but he moves QBs off their spot a ton. He doesn't turn that into enough wrecked plays. Too much game inconveniencer and not game wrecker compared to the very top level elite guys. But he is still a really good player. The only Bills defender I think is better right now is probably Benford. 

[SoTier]

52 minutes ago, balln said:

ESPN doing insider top player top 10 by positions 

 

no Ed Oliver , not even honorable mention

 

pretty interesting that every other DT drafted in his class is in top 10

 

imo this is beanes biggest blunder. Can’t miss on top 10 picks. Ed is an ok player. If he was a second rounder I feel his production and impact match that 

 

If Oliver is Beane's "biggest blunder", Beane must be pretty good.   Teams have much bigger "misses" on Top Ten picks every single draft, including 2019:

 

  2018:  #10 Josh Rosen

  2019:  #6   Daniel Jones

  2020  :#2   Chase Young

  2021 : #4   Kyle Pitts

[MJS]

27 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

What do you think people come here do to? Discuss sunshine & rainbows?

 

We have invested so much into our DL with little to no results. When the biggest investment on the DL isn’t in the Top 10 of his position, it should be discussed. Many people make predictions based on prior results and the prior results of improving the DL the last eight years, have many of us hopeless that we finally figure it out because nothing changes if nothing changes.

Ed Oliver isn't paid like a top 10 defensive tackle. He ranks 18th in the league in average per year salary.

[HOUSE]

If I am reading this correctly Oliver's cap hit for 2025 is just over 20mil

 

[balln]

2 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

If Oliver is Beane's "biggest blunder", Beane must be pretty good.   Teams have much bigger "misses" on Top Ten picks every single draft, including 2019:

 

  2018:  #10 Josh Rosen

  2019:  #6   Daniel Jones

  2020  :#2   Chase Young

  2021 : #4   Kyle Pitts

I don’t measure beane / bills moves against the horribly managed teams. I compare them to the good teams management . Bal, kc, phi, rams now det and maybe min / Green Bay / Tampa

[Simon]

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

2024 was not Ed's best year. I'm a huge fan of him, possibly the biggest on this board, and think he generally is undervalued by most Bills fans (and some neutral observers) but his performance for 2/3s of 2024 was below par. No question. He did turn it on down the stretch but he really underperformed by his standards for a fair chunk of last season

 

You might as well get used to it.

The only way he's going to keep that frame healthy for later in the season when it really counts is by pacing himself earlier in the season.

And imo, it's exactly the right way to play it.

[balln]

4 minutes ago, MJS said:

Ed Oliver isn't paid like a top 10 defensive tackle. He ranks 18th in the league in average per year salary.

Important to note. Makes it palatable 

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

You might as well get used to it.

The only way he's going to keep that frame healthy for later in the season when it really counts is by pacing himself earlier in the season.

And imo, it's exactly the right way to play it.

 

Meh. Maybe. I'm not sure. I think that might be looking for an excuse where he just didn't play well.

[BADOLBILZ]

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Meh. Maybe. I'm not sure. I think that might be looking for an excuse where he just didn't play well.

 

 

Yeah there is reason to question Ed Oliver's preparation and ability to perform at his best early in seasons.   There always was, IMO,  but then when he had the strong season from beginning to end in 2023 after spending that offseason thinking it was his walk year that pretty much spelled it out.   When the carrot was there he was in midseason form from the start.   By the time he signed that deal the hay was in the barn and he was in top shape.  

 

Contract chases tend to motivate.    I was actually hoping the Rousseau extension would come in the summer like it did with Oliver.   I think Rousseau is probably more of the personality type where he stays ready but still would have liked to see what a contract chase would have done for him.

[bigduke6]

we need more from Ed.  i dont see it happening though.  i think hes reached his limit.  he is what he is at this point.  we need guys who can make plays when theyre needed.  Ed does this a bit,  but not nearly enough.  mbe he lights it up this season?  heres to hoping he does.  

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

If Oliver is Beane's "biggest blunder", Beane must be pretty good.   Teams have much bigger "misses" on Top Ten picks every single draft, including 2019:

 

  2018:  #10 Josh Rosen

  2019:  #6   Daniel Jones

  2020  :#2   Chase Young

  2021 : #4   Kyle Pitts

 

2019 in general was by far his worst draft though when you factor in opportunity cost. That was likely the last time in the Allen era that we will have a top 10 pick, in every round at that. With that capital we took Oliver over the myriad of better defensive players taken after him, Cody Ford over AJ Brown and DK Metcalf, and Singletary over Terry McLaurin. Maxx Crosby was taken after we drafted Knox. So we had multiple opportunities to draft all-time franchise players and instead got decent players or busts. It is what it is.

 

Edited 3 hours ago by HappyDays

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Not sure what went on with the formatting but that is @uticaclub's comment. I'm not sure it is quite right though. Ed creates a ton of his own opportunities. His underlying analytics in terms of pass rush win rates and pressures are in that second half of the top 10 territory. His issue actually is finishing. He is not an elite finisher. Maybe that is just the result of the shorter arms, I think a bit of it is that real killer instinct... but he moves QBs off their spot a ton. He doesn't turn that into enough wrecked plays. Too much game inconveniencer and not game wrecker compared to the very top level elite guys. But he is still a really good player. The only Bills defender I think is better right now is probably Benford. 

This rings true.  Nice analysis of what Oliver does and doesn't do. 

 

I'm reminded that McDermott once said pressures are more important than sacks. What you describe is a guy who gets pressures but not sacks. For better or worse, that makes him a McDermott kind of guy.

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Not sure what went on with the formatting but that is @uticaclub's comment. I'm not sure it is quite right though. Ed creates a ton of his own opportunities. His underlying analytics in terms of pass rush win rates and pressures are in that second half of the top 10 territory. His issue actually is finishing. He is not an elite finisher. Maybe that is just the result of the shorter arms, I think a bit of it is that real killer instinct... but he moves QBs off their spot a ton. He doesn't turn that into enough wrecked plays. Too much game inconveniencer and not game wrecker compared to the very top level elite guys. But he is still a really good player. The only Bills defender I think is better right now is probably Benford. 

My problem with Oliver is he seems to disappear if you have above average guards and centers on a team.  He only seems to feast on below average to average IOL.  I don't study him that close to see if it's indeed the case though.