Big Badazz Beane on Pat McAfee today

[JGMcD2]

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

When instead it could go on your 3rd tight end, 10th OL or 7th DB...... That is the point here. Not that they should have forced a receiver pick early. But that when they get to the bit of the draft where they are attacking roster needs development receiver is always bottom of the list. 

 

23 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Hancock has a legitimate shot to unseat Cam Lewis, who played over 50% of the Bills’ defensive snaps in 2024.

 

Hawes is viewed as a strong blocker - does that mean he takes over Alec Anderson’s role as the “6th offensive lineman”? If so, he’d be on the field for roughly 26% of offensive snaps, which is about 8% more than the average Bills 5th WR saw last season.

 

The Bills typically carry four outside corners out of camp. If Strong beats out Dane Jackson and Ja’Marcus Ingram, that alone might justify the pick.

 

Chase Lundt is probably a long shot to make the roster, likely competing with Ryan Van Demark for the final OL spot. That said, you’re high on him - did you prefer Horn, Mellott, Johnson, or White instead?

 

Here’s who we passed on to draft a TE3, a CB/S hybrid, another outside corner, and a developmental WR:

 

KeAndre Lambert-Smith (Trade-up required)

Tory Horton (Trade-up required)

LaJohntay Webster

Jimmy Horn

Tommy Mellott

Tez Johnson

Ricky White

 

The next WR drafted was Kaden Prather. To me, the gap between him and the group above feels negligible. 

 

Realistically, he has as good a chance as anyone to beat out Tyrell Shavers, Jalen Virgil, or KJ Hamler for the WR5 job - which translates to about 18% of offensive snaps per game. That role typically averages 1 target, 0.65 catches, and 7 yards per game. None of these names are pushing past Palmer, Shakir, Coleman, or Samuel.

Reply is here 

[Southern Bills Fan]

I don't know. Everyone talking about about Beane's done great and Beane has a big sack, blah blah blah. He's had to pour a huge amount of high draft capital and FA capital into the D Line and it never makes a difference in crunch time. If he had hit on a few more high picks then that might be the difference in the 4th quarter of these close playoff games. He's comparing himself to the patriots with Brady and he hasn't even gotten to the big game. It sounds like he's getting a little too full of himself.

[ProcessTruster]

16 hours ago, Goin Breakdown said:

I really feel like he is basing everything off of listening for 3 mins. He even brings up that "the guys forgot about Josh Palmer". They didn't forget about Josh Palmer. Beane insinuated that they did in his rant. I really like Beane but he is being a little big childish about this (as are the wgr guys a bit)

but the fans and media started it all by being complete babies using the non-existent WR "issue" to create content for themselves.  so there... 

[aristocrat]

It's weird Beane is doing this because if he ends up having to make a trade like last year he's gonna get roasted for these comments. I also understand he's gotta support his guys.  

 

This year really wasn't the year to force picking a wide receiver. Two years ago we trade up for Kincaid in a wr heavy draft a just a few picks ahead there were 3 1000 yard receivers and oh right we already had a high paid tight end on the roster.  There are certain years you force a trade up cause the class is deep and certain years you sit tight and take a guy or even move back.  Whiffing on Elam and Kincaid while the Chiefs nailed Mcduffie, Karlaftis is what separated them from us. They had those extra guys that made a play or two and got rings. 

[Bockeye]

3 hours ago, SoMAn said:

Coleman was still learning and was playing with an injured hand.   

The Bills were exceeding expectations in what many believed would be a ‘transition year’.  When the experienced pro bowl receiver became available at a reasonable price, Beane and Co. probably thought, ‘let’s go for it. We’re in the thick of it for a playoff spot, and maybe even the top seed.’ 
It was a gamble. The return investment was minimal, but it was a worthwhile risk. They don’t call Beane ‘big balls’ for nothing. 

This is an excellent take.  Kincaid was banged up too.  Many people hammer him and just believe he’s plain not good.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/bills/news/source-provides-insight-into-dalton-kincaid-2024

[zow2]

I used to listed to Jeremy and Howard about a decade ago.  I found Jeremy to be one those Mr. Know-it-all types where his opinion is the only opinion.  He's obnoxious with that.  I was happy to see Beane make him uncomfortable and defensive.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

It's weird Beane is doing this because if he ends up having to make a trade like last year he's gonna get roasted for these comments. I also understand he's gotta support his guys.  

 

This year really wasn't the year to force picking a wide receiver. Two years ago we trade up for Kincaid in a wr heavy draft a just a few picks ahead there were 3 1000 yard receivers and oh right we already had a high paid tight end on the roster.  There are certain years you force a trade up cause the class is deep and certain years you sit tight and take a guy or even move back.  Whiffing on Elam and Kincaid while the Chiefs nailed Mcduffie, Karlaftis is what separated them from us. They had those extra guys that made a play or two and got rings. 

 

This is the point. It isn't this draft in isolation. It's longer term prioritisation.

[Sierra Foothills]

16 hours ago, Billsguy said:

Bravo Beane, you have built a mediocre WR corps. What is this guy bragging about? In 2017 the Bills traded the #10 pick to KC who drafted Mahomes. He and the Chiefs have won 3 Super Bowls and been in 5 of the last 6 SB's. You don't hear the KC GM bragging like a tough guy like the foolish Beane. Maybe Beane the bully wants to distract people from the fact that he hasn't won anything!

 

The introduction and discussion of Mahomes in this topic is misplaced and weakens the conversation.

 

The trading of the pick to KC happened BEFORE Beane was the Bills GM.

 

14 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Here’s a breakdown of wide receivers drafted in the top four rounds, highlighting who the Bills could have reasonably selected at their spots in the first three rounds. (Note: The focus is on rounds 1–3 since the Bills’ fourth-round picks are typically at the end of the round)

 

I counted 61 wide receivers drafted in the top four rounds from 2021 to 2024. The names marked in red are players I would have realistically been willing to draft at the Bills’ prior pick - with the benefit of hindsight.

 

I think there are 8 guys in red text, and they're surrounded by a bunch of landmines. They don't exist in an abundance like you're making it out to be. 

 

2021

 

Players reasonably within reach:

• Kadarius Toney (Pick 20)
• Rashod Bateman (Pick 27)

After Pick 30 (Rousseau):

• Elijah Moore (34)
• Rondale Moore (49)
• D’Wayne Eskridge (56)
• Tutu Atwell (57)
• Terrace Marshall Jr. (59)

After Pick 61 (Basham):

• Josh Palmer (77)
• Dyami Brown (82)
• Amari Rodgers (85)
• Nico Collins (89)
• Anthony Schwartz (91)

After Pick 93 (Brown):

• Dez Fitzpatrick (109)
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (122)
• Jaelon Darden (129)
• Tylan Wallace (131)
• Jacob Harris (141)

2022

 

Players reasonably within reach:

• Jahan Dotson (16)
• Treylon Burks (18)

After Pick 23 (Elam):

• Christian Watson (34)
• Wan’Dale Robinson (43)
• John Metchie III (44)
• Tyquan Thornton (50)
• George Pickens (52)
• Alec Pierce (53)
• Skyy Moore (54)

After Pick 63 (Cook):

• Velus Jones Jr. (71)
• Jalen Tolbert (88)

After Pick 89 (Bernard):

• David Bell (99)
• Danny Gray (105)
• Erik Ezukanma (125)
• Romeo Doubs (132)
• Calvin Austin (138)

2023

 

Players reasonably within reach:

• (Trading up between Picks 20–23 wasn’t realistic; those teams stood pat.)

After Pick 25 (Kincaid):

• Jonathan Mingo (39)
• Jayden Reed (50)
• Rashee Rice (55)

After Pick 59 (Torrence):

• Marvin Mims (63)
• Tank Dell (69)
• Jalin Hyatt (73)
• Cedric Tillman (74)
• Josh Downs (79)

After Pick 91 (Williams):

• Michael Wilson (94)
• Tre Tucker (100)
• Derius Davis (125)
• Charlie Jones (131)
• Tyler Scott (133)

2024

 

Players reasonably within reach:

• Xavier Worthy (28)
• Ricky Pearsall (31)
• Xavier Legette (32)

After Pick 33 (Coleman):

• Ladd McConkey (34)
• Ja'Lynn Polk (37)
• Adonai Mitchell (52)

After Pick 60 (Bishop):

• Malachi Corley (65)
• Jermaine Burton (80)
• Roman Wilson (84)
• Jalen McMillan (92)

After Pick 95 (Carter):

• Luke McCaffrey (100)
• Troy Franklin (102)
• Javon Baker (110)
• Devontez Walker (113)
• Jacob Cowing (135)

 

Thank you for the hard work adding up to a great post.

 

Some teams get lucky here and there when drafting wideouts but it's hard to get a difference-maker where the Bills draft. Besides the high miss rate at the position and the Bills constantly-stated philosophy that games are won in the trenches, there haven't been many opportunities for them to pick one where they think he's the BPA and fills the biggest need.

 

14 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

• Their defense has better pieces 
• Spagnola has 16 years coaching in the NFL as a head coach or defensive coordinator... Same with McDermott 
• Spagnola has five top 10 defenses in yards... McDermott has nine 
• Spagnola has seven top 10 defenses for points.. McDermott has six
• Spagnola has 4 top 10 defenses in takeaways 
• McDermott has 14 top 10 defenses in takeaways... 8 in top 5
• We need to stay healthy and we needed to add more pieces
• Spagnolis defense also just got mollywomped in the super bowl

 

This is a really great breakdown. A historical breakdown of recent drafts has shown that the Bills (at best), spend an average amount of resources on defense. A constant narrative in our playoff history is that we suffer numerous end of season/playoff injuries on defense and can't perform well enough to win.

 

The Bills have been thin on defense during the McBeane era and that's why KC's defense has been better than ours... that and Chris Jones.

 

BTW, imagine having a difference-making D-lineman...

 

13 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

And why do we keep losing games to Mahomes? Lack of scoring? Last 4 Bills/Chiefs playoff games Buffalo scored 24, 36, 24 and 29 points. I don't see a lack of scoring. But KC scored 38, 42, 27 and 32 points. Hmmm, I wonder what's causing these losses? 🤔

 

That interview with Pat McAfee spells things out as plain as day: Beane believes teams win in the trenches. Jeremy White, on the other hand, thinks games are won on the long ball. One man's job is to build a winning football team and the other guy flaps his gums for 4 hours a day.

 

Yes, the average playoff loss to the Chiefs has been:

 

Chiefs 34.75

Bills 28.25

 

12 hours ago, Redblood said:

I can tell he is feeling the pressure. 

 

I actually feel McBeane are feeling the pressure... as they should. They're smart guys and understand the Josh window.

 

8 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

I’d like to draft a “stud” WR to.  Not a mid one.  
 

The WGR guys are arguing about getting one in the 3rd or 4th round this year….maybe they’d have said round 2.  
 

From 2023 - a class that was ok - but better then 2025. 
 

Who on this list from round 3-7 (other then Nucua who everyone passed on bc he’s got injury history) would we want?  Who we losing sleep over missing out on??

 

 

Beane is right.  You want to NEAR guarantee yourself an ELITE WR you need to be picking early in the draft, sacrifice tons of capital to move up, or spend and take on salary - which still likely would require a trade.  
 

Seeing this list, and considering how weak the WR class is and the needs on D - pretty much every position - the approach for 2025 was acceptable.  
 

This 2023 draft is just a reference to give you an idea of the quality of WR typically available in rounds 3-7.  Go back and look at the recent drafts rounds 3-7 and you’ll see similar or worse.  
 

FYI in this draft the Packers also drafted Jayden Reed.  They took 3 WRs.  
 

This year they took another WR in round 1. 
 

Passing up on Starks or a CB which they definitely need.  
 

Just dumb.  

 

More great work and a great post.

 

Thank you.

 

This reinforces the idea that for a team drafting where the Bills draft (late 20s, early 30s) that it's very difficult to draft a difference-making WR unless you move up. The problem is that moving up to that degree doesn't guarantee anything and is costly.

 

8 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:

"Greatly prioritized" what a joke. Here's the prior 7 years in which we super duper prioritized our Defense and led to us losing in the playoffs. 

 

2024 - 5 of 10 picks went to the offense - Even

2023 - 4 of 6 picks went to offense - Offensive Draft

2022 - 3 of 7 picks to offense, 1 pick was a punter. 3 picks to defense = Even

2021 - 4 of 8 picks went to offense - Even

2020 - 4 of 7 picks went to offense, 1 pick was a kicker - Offensive draft

2019 - 4 of 8 picks went to offense - Even

2018 - 4 of 8 picks went to offense, we traded up 2x to get Allen - Even

 

So last 7 years we have had 5 even drafts and 2 offensive ones. Don't let the facts get in the way of a good irrational whining session though. Great example of the people voicing your argument, it's all off "vibes." You FEEL something is real, so you crack your knuckles and type your little heart out making ridiculous statements without taking 2 seconds to think "maybe I should check to see if I'm right."

 

 

Great post... thank you.

 

The Bills allocation to defense has been about average. The team has been afflicted by defensive injuries in the  late season/playoffs.

 

Of course I'd love to see a field-stretching WR but I love this draft and am looking forward to being a bully on defense for once.

 

1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:

Hancock has a legitimate shot to unseat Cam Lewis, who played over 50% of the Bills’ defensive snaps in 2024.

 

Hawes is viewed as a strong blocker - does that mean he takes over Alec Anderson’s role as the “6th offensive lineman”? If so, he’d be on the field for roughly 26% of offensive snaps, which is about 8% more than the average Bills 5th WR saw last season.

 

The Bills typically carry four outside corners out of camp. If Strong beats out Dane Jackson and Ja’Marcus Ingram, that alone might justify the pick.

 

Chase Lundt is probably a long shot to make the roster, likely competing with Ryan Van Demark for the final OL spot. That said, you’re high on him - did you prefer Horn, Mellott, Johnson, or White instead?

 

Here’s who we passed on to draft a TE3, a CB/S hybrid, another outside corner, and a developmental WR:

 

KeAndre Lambert-Smith (Trade-up required)

Tory Horton (Trade-up required)

LaJohntay Webster

Jimmy Horn

Tommy Mellott

Tez Johnson

Ricky White

 

The next WR drafted was Kaden Prather. To me, the gap between him and the group above feels negligible. 

 

Realistically, he has as good a chance as anyone to beat out Tyrell Shavers, Jalen Virgil, or KJ Hamler for the WR5 job - which translates to about 18% of offensive snaps per game. That role typically averages 1 target, 0.65 catches, and 7 yards per game. None of these names are pushing past Palmer, Shakir, Coleman, or Samuel.

 

Another great post... thank you.

 

Edited April 30 by Sierra Foothills

[Goin Breakdown]

23 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

but the fans and media started it all by being complete babies using the non-existent WR "issue" to create content for themselves.  so there... 

So your response is "they started it". They're being "babies" so there?  Did you stick your tongue out at me too?

[Sierra Foothills]

25 minutes ago, Southern Bills Fan said:

I don't know. Everyone talking about about Beane's done great and Beane has a big sack, blah blah blah. He's had to pour a huge amount of high draft capital and FA capital into the D Line and it never makes a difference in crunch time. If he had hit on a few more high picks then that might be the difference in the 4th quarter of these close playoff games. He's comparing himself to the patriots with Brady and he hasn't even gotten to the big game. It sounds like he's getting a little too full of himself.

 

While I think you make some valid points, I don't think you're being completely fair.

 

Yes Beane's had his misses as all GMs do but on balance, no one would dispute that he's one of the top 5 GMs in the NFL... no one... so we're lucky to have him. The glass is more than half full. Of coure we're all impatient for that Super Bowl win but that shouldn't obscure from all the great work he has done.

 

Changing the subject, I actually question his recent 2-day media agenda... I'm ambivalent about his defiance and pushback against his perceived detractors... I always liked him better when he was above the fray. It's easy for me to say but you need big shoulders in his position and I don't think stepping out of character and going from affable to angry really works for him.

 

While many here are in favor of Beane lashing out, doing so creates an equal and opposite reaction, which will turn up the heat on him and McDermott... which is fine as long as they realize it.

 

Things are getting warmer in Bills Nation... which they should.

 

That said, I fully support this regime.

 

[Billsfed1]

As far as what Beane told those guys on the radio…he’s not wrong.  

 

Honestly it’ll probably go down as my favourite part of the offseason lol

[PromoTheRobot]

9 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said:

All expected when you have the best QB in the NFL leading your team.  Regular season success has never been a gauge in determining greatness.  Being strategically dominated by the same team in the postseason for 4 of the past 5 seasons is not greatness. 

Who knew everything happens only because of Josh Allen? The other 52 guys must be just standing around. 🙄

[bigK14094]

18 hours ago, LEBills said:

Yes there is variance per game of course, but we did run 5 WRs deep. If you select each players name individually it gives you their season long snap percentage. You can do that with the defensive players as well and will see the same thing.

I remember years where the receivers were so banged up we were playing guys off the street at wr.  Gailey years, and further back.  Better have wr depth or you can loose the season.

[HomeskillitMoorman]

20 hours ago, RobbRiddick said:

I like Beane a lot and see his point but when he says "people were saying this last offseason" he fails to remember he went out and panic traded for Cooper when he realised the WR room needed help

Right, I actually like Beane too and I appreciate his transparency because it’s more than most GM’s give but that is a valid point and fact. 
 

For me it still gets back to being able to think two things can be true at the same time. He’s a good GM that’s fallen short of being great. 
 

I think he and McD think they should have this level of reverence and trust when this team has massively underperformed in the playoffs given what the best player we’ve ever had has done and are 0-4 against our biggest rival.
 

I don’t think the “how dare you question us” swagger really works when you haven’t won anything. 
 

11 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said:

All expected when you have the best QB in the NFL leading your team.  Regular season success has never been a gauge in determining greatness.  Being strategically dominated by the same team in the postseason for 4 of the past 5 seasons is not greatness. 

100%. The sad part about that is Josh overall has been great in the playoffs. Mahomes can win a SB even with an up and down postseason because of what’s around him and their coaching. Josh doesn’t have that luxury. He can’t even get there when he’s great. 

Edited April 30 by HomeskillitMoorman

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Hancock has a legitimate shot to unseat Cam Lewis, who played over 50% of the Bills’ defensive snaps in 2024.

 

Hawes is viewed as a strong blocker - does that mean he takes over Alec Anderson’s role as the “6th offensive lineman”? If so, he’d be on the field for roughly 26% of offensive snaps, which is about 8% more than the average Bills 5th WR saw last season.

 

The Bills typically carry four outside corners out of camp. If Strong beats out Dane Jackson and Ja’Marcus Ingram, that alone might justify the pick.

 

Chase Lundt is probably a long shot to make the roster, likely competing with Ryan Van Demark for the final OL spot. That said, you’re high on him - did you prefer Horn, Mellott, Johnson, or White instead?

 

Here’s who we passed on to draft a TE3, a CB/S hybrid, another outside corner, and a developmental WR:

 

KeAndre Lambert-Smith (Trade-up required)

Tory Horton (Trade-up required)

LaJohntay Webster

Jimmy Horn

Tommy Mellott

Tez Johnson

Ricky White

 

The next WR drafted was Kaden Prather. To me, the gap between him and the group above feels negligible. 

 

Realistically, he has as good a chance as anyone to beat out Tyrell Shavers, Jalen Virgil, or KJ Hamler for the WR5 job - which translates to about 18% of offensive snaps per game. That role typically averages 1 target, 0.65 catches, and 7 yards per game. None of these names are pushing past Palmer, Shakir, Coleman, or Samuel.

 

All of this kind of proves my point though, it comes down to what you prioritise. Would a developmental receiver, likely our WR5 in 2025, play fewer snaps as a rookie than Hancock if he wins that job off Cam Lewis and a TE3 who is a blocker? Yep. But is that what we are prioritising? Which guy has the easiest path to snaps in 2025? Why are we not looking at these rookies as potential four year investments? I'm really only talking about the trade up guys - Horton and Lambert - developmental speed receiver who can play outside and the Bills had for a 30 visit. To get either of them the trade up would have meant giving up one of the 5ths (either Hancock or Hawes) and Lundt to trade up. One way of looking at it is your way and saying who plays most snaps in 2025? My approach might be more if all six guys we are talking about here: Hancock, Hawes, Lundt, Strong, Horton and Lambert are starting level players by the end of their rookie contracts which ones cost the money to pay? It's the receivers, then Strong and Lundt (if he stays at tackle). So if I have a chance to take a shot on getting one of those at a discount rate who makes the most sense to get - it's the receivers. 

 

Add to that - how much better are the Bills if Hancock is 25% better as a DIME and DB utility piece than Cam? How much better are they if Hawes is on the field instead of Anderson? Whereas how much better are they if a Horton or Lambert does outplay expectations and by their second year are a legit piece of the offense? I think unquestionably the last of those makes the biggest % difference in the Bills as a team. 

 

I like Lundt and Strong and while I watched less of Hancock and very little of Hawes I understand the fit for them. In isolation they all make sense. It is the opportunity cost that makes less sense to me when you pass on a developmental guy who could potentially in future years be a receiver that makes plays for you. 

 

I think Beane takes the wrong message from Khalil Shakir. It shouldn't be "great he hit I don't need to worry about shooting for developmental receivers much for the next few years." It should, in my opinion, be "great, day 3 is a place where you find less well rounded receivers but guys with specific skillsets that you can then fuse together and make work with Josh Allen." 

[HomeskillitMoorman]

12 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

95 wins? 5 AFC East titles? 6 straight playoff appearances? What a cluster****, am I right? 🙄 You can't win a Super Bowl unless you get this close. 

 

That also doesn't mean a better GM and coach couldn't win an actual championship with the best player we've ever had though. We have heavily underachieved in the playoffs, we really haven't even been close to winning a Super Bowl. They've created a situation where the ask of our franchise player is much higher than what other teams are asking of franchise players are on other teams. 

 

Josh has something like 33 TD's and 4 INT's in the playoffs...and is barely over .500! This is unprecedented, it's never happened in the history of the NFL. They have overall let him down with the defenses, coaching and support they've put around him. I'd be curious to see how that could be debated. 

[JGMcD2]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

All of this kind of proves my point though, it comes down to what you prioritise. Would a developmental receiver, likely our WR5 in 2025, play fewer snaps as a rookie than Hancock if he wins that job off Cam Lewis and a TE3 who is a blocker? Yep. But is that what we are prioritising? Which guy has the easiest path to snaps in 2025? Why are we not looking at these rookies as potential four year investments? I'm really only talking about the trade up guys - Horton and Lambert - developmental speed receiver who can play outside and the Bills had for a 30 visit. To get either of them the trade up would have meant giving up one of the 5ths (either Hancock or Hawes) and Lundt to trade up. One way of looking at it is your way and saying who plays most snaps in 2025? My approach might be more if all six guys we are talking about here: Hancock, Hawes, Lundt, Strong, Horton and Lambert are starting level players by the end of their rookie contracts which ones cost the money to pay? It's the receivers, then Strong and Lundt (if he stays at tackle). So if I have a chance to take a shot on getting one of those at a discount rate who makes the most sense to get - it's the receivers. 

 

Add to that - how much better are the Bills if Hancock is 25% better as a DIME and DB utility piece than Cam? How much better are they if Hawes is on the field instead of Anderson? Whereas how much better are they if a Horton or Lambert does outplay expectations and by their second year are a legit piece of the offense? I think unquestionably the last of those makes the biggest % difference in the Bills as a team. 

 

I like Lundt and Strong and while I watched less of Hancock and very little of Hawes I understand the fit for them. In isolation they all make sense. It is the opportunity cost that makes less sense to me when you pass on a developmental guy who could potentially in future years be a receiver that makes plays for you. 

 

I think Beane takes the wrong message from Khalil Shakir. It shouldn't be "great he hit I don't need to worry about shooting for developmental receivers much for the next few years." It should, in my opinion, be "great, day 3 is a place where you find less well rounded receivers but guys with specific skillsets that you can then fuse together and make work with Josh Allen." 

Thanks for the thoughtful response. I’d still be interested in your perspective on the gap between Kaden Prather and the group below - that feels like an important piece of the opportunity cost discussion that wasn’t fully addressed.

 

KeAndre Lambert-Smith

Tory Horton

LaJohntay Webster

Jimmy Horn

Tommy Mellott

Tez Johnson

Ricky White

 

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on that comparison.

[gonzo1105]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

All of this kind of proves my point though, it comes down to what you prioritise. Would a developmental receiver, likely our WR5 in 2025, play fewer snaps as a rookie than Hancock if he wins that job off Cam Lewis and a TE3 who is a blocker? Yep. But is that what we are prioritising? Which guy has the easiest path to snaps in 2025? Why are we not looking at these rookies as potential four year investments? I'm really only talking about the trade up guys - Horton and Lambert - developmental speed receiver who can play outside and the Bills had for a 30 visit. To get either of them the trade up would have meant giving up one of the 5ths (either Hancock or Hawes) and Lundt to trade up. One way of looking at it is your way and saying who plays most snaps in 2025? My approach might be more if all six guys we are talking about here: Hancock, Hawes, Lundt, Strong, Horton and Lambert are starting level players by the end of their rookie contracts which ones cost the money to pay? It's the receivers, then Strong and Lundt (if he stays at tackle). So if I have a chance to take a shot on getting one of those at a discount rate who makes the most sense to get - it's the receivers. 

 

Add to that - how much better are the Bills if Hancock is 25% better as a DIME and DB utility piece than Cam? How much better are they if Hawes is on the field instead of Anderson? Whereas how much better are they if a Horton or Lambert does outplay expectations and by their second year are a legit piece of the offense? I think unquestionably the last of those makes the biggest % difference in the Bills as a team. 

 

I like Lundt and Strong and while I watched less of Hancock and very little of Hawes I understand the fit for them. In isolation they all make sense. It is the opportunity cost that makes less sense to me when you pass on a developmental guy who could potentially in future years be a receiver that makes plays for you. 

 

I think Beane takes the wrong message from Khalil Shakir. It shouldn't be "great he hit I don't need to worry about shooting for developmental receivers much for the next few years." It should, in my opinion, be "great, day 3 is a place where you find less well rounded receivers but guys with specific skillsets that you can then fuse together and make work with Josh Allen." 

I don’t think you can look at it in that isolation solely how much better is Hancock over Lewis. I think we need to look at the secondary in general with Hairston over Douglas, White over Elam, Hancock over Lewis, and Strong over Ingram/Jackson. I think you could argue there is a significance in all of that 

5 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Thanks for the thoughtful response. I’d still be interested in your perspective on the gap between Kaden Prather and the group below - that feels like an important piece of the opportunity cost discussion that wasn’t fully addressed.

 

KeAndre Lambert-Smith

Tory Horton

LaJohntay Webster

Jimmy Horn

Tommy Mellott

Tez Johnson

Ricky White

 

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on that comparison.

I think with the last 5 guys on that list you could argue there isn’t a difference at all. I think there is a gap between the top 2 and Prather but not as big as people perceived before the process 

[HomeskillitMoorman]

14 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

The same defense the Eagles scored 40 on.  I kid.  I realize that but I have a hard time declaring Allen as the best QB in the game until he finishes that drive down 3 in the 4th quarter that will pry inevitably happen again.  If you ever look at their head to head stats in the playoffs they're both astoundingly good in those four games.

 

But you do know that's different right? Their defenses have been much better, especially in the playoffs. Even if you watch just that game last year, our guy had to make much tougher plays and it was a grind to get every yard and he was still possibly a bad call from winning it. Our defenses have largely been a sieve every single postseason. Also, he finished two of those drives in the 13 seconds game in the final 2 minutes and that still wasn't enough for this team to close it out for him. 

 

I get the part at the end. We had a shot to win it this past postseason and it was disappointing that it didn't happen. But the ask of him is to put up 30+ points vs a top level defense and the ask of Mahomes is to put up 30+ against a trash one. And this isn't even me throwing shade at Mahomes, I would agree with someone that he still gets the mantle of best QB in the game.

 

It is true though that his organization and team have made it possible for him to get to and win SB's even if he isn't great all postseason long. And that's how it should be. We can't even get there when our guy is great. If he's having a down game, we have no shot. The second SB the Chiefs won vs the 49ers I think they punted like 3 times and had a turnover or two in the first half and scored 3 points I believe and their D kept them in the game....we would've been blown out if Josh had that type of half against a top team in January. 

 

I know what you're saying but I don't think it's as simple as that. 

[JGMcD2]

14 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I think with the last 5 guys on that list you could argue there isn’t a difference at all. I think there is a gap between the top 2 and Prather but not as big as people perceived before the process

I really appreciate your input here - especially with @GunnerBill involved, I think this could lead to some really interesting discussion, given that you both build out draft boards each year.

 

Who else did you have available at TE, NB, CB, and OT that fits the Bills’ needs and could have been taken instead of Hawes, Hancock, Strong, and Lundt?

 

That should help illustrate the decision-making at each spot, particularly when compared to the idea of trading up for someone like Lambert-Smith or Horton.