Big Badazz Beane on Pat McAfee today

[mjt328]

57 minutes ago, corta765 said:

The point which WGR made and also is 100% right is there was a good 2-3 year stretch where some truly good talented WRs came in and were available... and the Bills only made a move when their backs were against the wall (Keon) when they could've been aggressive to double down in the draft with another guy OR been aggressive for someone like Brian Thomas who they absolutely could've went and got.

 

I understand not moving picks for DK even if he was a dream fit. But this offense with Brian Thomas or Ladd etc.. feels much different then it does with Keon.

 

I don't think it's fair to say the Bills only made a move when their back was against the wall.

Beane was totally on-top of the WR situation until the Diggs drama last spring.  

 

Go back to exactly 3 years ago (right after the 13 seconds game).  The Bills had All-Pro level Stefon Diggs right in the prime of his career, still motivated and happy.  Gabe Davis was coming off his 4 touchdown performance, and seemed primed for a huge breakout.  Many honestly thought we had one of the best 1-2 receiver punches in the entire league at that time.  That offseason, Beane still double-dipped to replace a declining Cole Beasley in the slot... signing Jamison Crowder and drafting Khalil Shakir.  

 

Fast forward to the next offseason.  Bills still have Diggs/Davis/Shakir.  Most of us went into the draft talking about WR2 as one of our top needs, but at this point it was more about the future (not desperation).  Things look good that someone will fall to us, and then the Top 4 receivers all go off the board in succession at 20-21-22-23.  With the cupboard totally bare, Beane decides to go with Dalton Kincaid as the next best receiving weapon for the offense.  We can criticize him for not trading up, but who knows if anyone would have been willing to make a deal.  

 

Going into the 2024 offseason, the Bills were planning to let Davis walk.  They immediately signed Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins as potential replacements at the #2 spot.  And most felt they would go after a WR in the draft (as they eventually did with Keon Coleman).  But things really didn't go off the rails until they got side-swiped by Diggs and were forced to trade him.  Don't forget this was weeks after the start of free agency, when it was too late for Beane to properly address the loss.  Based on the cap implications, it's pretty clear they were forced to get rid of him at least a year earlier than planned.  And despite this, the Bills finished #1 in scoring and had the best statistical offense in team history.

 

 

 

[Cray51]

5 minutes ago, corta765 said:

Proving why if the Bills had drafted one to two WRs in 2023 and again in 2024 they may have struck gold. The drafting of Shakir was the definition of doubling down when you had luxury as that draft we had just lost in 13 seconds and the offense at WR felt so good. Guess what you were still willing to make a move and it now has paid off in spades.

Who from 2024 was worth drafting starting with the Bishop pick?  Jalen McMillan, who played third fiddle to Evans and Godwin?  No one else after pick 35 has done anything at WR...

 

Who from 2023?  Puka, but everyone missed on him.  The only other outside threat that was taken after pick 55 with any value is Michael Wilson.  Anyone who was productive from the second round on in 23 is primary slot.  That's Shakir's spot.

 

That's kind of Beane's point.  It's not really gold you are trying to hit.  It's the rarest gems you can try to find.  There has been 1 legit top 2 WR taken in 23 or 24 after pick 40 - Nacua.  You want to risk 2 picks a year on having a 5% chance at landing a decent boundary WR?  That's bad asset management.

 

What Beane needs to do is prepare the roster so he can take a 2nd or 3rd and trade for a guy who needs a new deal soon.  That opportunity should open up after this season.

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, UKBillFan said:

I think that’s a weak argument. Drafting a WR doesn’t impact the budget any more than drafting another position. No one expected a WR in the first round. I believe most people are happy with the picks across the first two days. The questions are being asked about day three. No one is asking Beane to trade next three first round picks for Chase or anything like that. Just something different in the room. And perhaps it is still to come.

No but defense, especially DL was a pressing need NOW. What does next year's WR class look like? If the D is better this year, expect some WRs drafted then.

[Doc Brown]

19 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

You're upset we didn't take two more 4th round WRs? If you aren't happy with one Shakir, would you be happy with 3 of them?

That's of course taking into account that by not getting Kincaid, you'd now have a big hole to fill at TE and you'd have a worse receiving weapon there.

FWIW, Shakir is also the best performing WR in his class drafted after Pickens in the 2nd round. Are you praising Beane if he drafts Erik Ezukanma and Montrell Williams?

Did I say I wasn't happy with one Shakir?  Maybe if he has those two 4th round picks he'd draft differently in the rounds leading up to it.  Maybe use them as collateral to trade up for a guy like Pickens as you mentioned.  He's had numerous opportunities since the Diggs trade to take quality WR's in the first few rounds and hasn't until it was absolutely essential after trading Diggs.  Now he's bitchin' on a radio show about a very valid criticism that he hasn't made it a priority to get cheap labor at WR.

Edited yesterday at 08:36 PM by Doc Brown

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:

In that clip, Beane pulls back the curtain on their roster strategy. He felt it was a weak wide receiver class, and when they were on the clock, none of the options meaningfully upgraded their top four. So why spend draft capital on someone who might only be your fifth receiver when you're typically running 12 personnel or 6 OL? It’s a candid look at how they approached the board to fit their offense. 

 

Jeremy White can make all kinds of noise about his WR train because his job doesn't depend on him being right. Beane's job does. That's the difference.

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, Doc Brown said:

Did I say I wasn't happy with one Shakir?  Maybe if he has those two 4th round picks he'd draft differently in the rounds leading up to it.  Maybe use them as collateral to trade up for a guy like Pickens as you mentioned.  He's had numerous opportunities since the Diggs trade to take quality WR's in the first few rounds and hasn't.  Now he's bitchin' on a radio show about a very valid criticism that he hasn't made it a priority to get cheap labor at WR.

But why would he need to do that yet again? We've already taken a 1st round pass catching TE, a 2nd round WR, and his previous 5th round WR has turned into a legitimate #2 WR. He also signed a guy who he believes has #2/#3 upside in Palmer. I'm flabbergasted how anyone can think he hasn't addressed the position when he's invested in it heavily.

What exactly do you want?

I would have loved DK metcalf, but paying him $30M a year likely means our DL is trash again this year instead of stacked. Someone like Pickens would not have been a meaningful upgrade. He's a name everyone knows, but he's fairly mediocre and a headcase, which is why they invested so much in Metcalf.

[Doc Brown]

16 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Josh Allen has a 330 yd 4 passing touchdown game and didn't get the ball back in overtime 

 

And every single coach in the history of football will say that a rookie quarterback starting out on the sidelines is the correct way to do it .. GM's and coaches just don't have a long enough leash to do it now

 

So yes that does help your career and Patrick mahomes got that .. Josh Allen had to survive getting thrown to the fire with a porous offensive line and not good weapons

 

 mahomes got to work on his footwork/mechanics from the bench.. Josh couldn't work on his footwork getting thrown to the fire and that's why It took a couple years for his mechanics to get up to speed

 

It's night and day now

 

 

Mahomes threw for 378 yds, 3 TD's, and a rushing TD.  Both played great but the point remains that Allen hasn't outperformed Mahomes in the four head to head matchup in the playoffs.  

[TheFunPolice]

I watched and immediately noticed the difference between the types of question MacAfee and company asked Beane and the amateur hour clown show that is WGR

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

7 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Mahomes threw for 378 yds, 3 TD's, and a rushing TD.  Both played great but the point remains that Allen hasn't outperformed Mahomes in the four head to head matchup in the playoffs.  

 

Maybe Mahomes always outperforms Josh because he's playing against the weaker defense in the game.

[Doc Brown]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 mahomes is a great football player .. one of the best in the world... that doesn't mean he would be the same exact player on 31 other teams and have three super bowls everywhere

 

That's why landing spot and scheme fit means so much in the NFL

 

Tom Brady needed to link up with Bill belichick at 22 years old... If he gets drafted to the Texans or Cardinals I don't think he's Tom Brady

 

Sure at 40 when he was a first ballot Hall of famer he was able to leave and win... I don't think he could have left at 24 and won elsewhere

 

 

Again.  I hate this hypothetical nonsense.  There's no way to prove that Brady or Mahomes wouldn't have had success if another team drafted them.  It's a fruitless debate.

 

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Maybe Mahomes always outperforms Josh because he's playing against the weaker defense in the game.

Absolutely.

Edited yesterday at 08:49 PM by Doc Brown

[Buffalo716]

15 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Again.  I hate this hypothetical nonsense.  There's no way to prove that Brady or Mahomes wouldn't have had success if another team drafted them.  It's a fruitless debate.

 

Absolutely.

We can all have our opinions and agree to disagree 🙏 

[yall]

55 minutes ago, Einstein said:

No. I think that's a very poor criticism. 

I think it is fair to criticize him for not going after elite WR's in the 1st round. Or trading for an elite WR after Diggs. 

But criticizing him for not taking a flyer on a middle round WR that has a 5% chance of becoming anything decent is not a valid criticism imo. If you look at the top 50 WR's in the NFL (which is pretty much every single 1st and 2nd WR), only a handful of them were taken after round 3 (or was it 4?). It's a very low success rate at that point. 

Of course, everyone remembers the outliers like Puka Nacua and Diggs... but for the most part, you better take a WR in the first round or two.

Looks like of the top 50 active wide receivers in the 2024 season, 50% were first or second round picks. 

 

18 of them were 4th round or later.

 

To fully understand the success rate, you would have to compare that list with the total amount of receivers from all of the drafts that included that active top 50, so while you're probably not directionally wrong, there's a decent amount of value to be mined after round 3.

[US Egg]

Beane kinda gave ‘GR a break, no show prep gonna be needed for the rest of the week.

 

Or in other words they’re gonna “Bulldog it”.

[Doc Brown]

38 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

But why would he need to do that yet again? We've already taken a 1st round pass catching TE, a 2nd round WR, and his previous 5th round WR has turned into a legitimate #2 WR. He also signed a guy who he believes has #2/#3 upside in Palmer. I'm flabbergasted how anyone can think he hasn't addressed the position when he's invested in it heavily.

What exactly do you want?

I would have loved DK metcalf, but paying him $30M a year likely means our DL is trash again this year instead of stacked. Someone like Pickens would not have been a meaningful upgrade. He's a name everyone knows, but he's fairly mediocre and a headcase, which is why they invested so much in Metcalf.

I don't know man.  You make a lot of good points but it just seems since the Diggs trade Beane hasn't made WR that big of a priority.  Whether it comes to signing or trading for premier WR veterans or spending almost the lowest draft capital in the league at WR.  Pry pry a philosophical change.  All I know is it's frustrating coming up short every year and I'm going to take a nap.

[Simon]

35 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Maybe Mahomes always outperforms Josh because he's playing against the weaker(i.e. injured) defense in the game.

 

Submitted for your approval

[Einstein]

Just now, yall said:

Looks like of the top 50 active wide receivers in the 2024 season, 50% were first or second round picks. 

 

18 of them were 4th round or later.

You must be using a different metric for "top 50". 

For example, you might be using top-50 in receptions. Which is not a good idea, because, for example, an injured top 10 receiver would not be in this list.

My suggestion? Find a decent list of the top 50 WR's in the NFL. For example, if you want a large survey of the top 50 WR's, here is one. Over 250,000 NFL fans voted in this survey, so the results are likely relevant as it has a large sample set.

In this survey of a quarter million NFL fans, a little more than a handful of the top 50 WR's were taken round 4 or later.

[JGMcD2]

54 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Did I say I wasn't happy with one Shakir?  Maybe if he has those two 4th round picks he'd draft differently in the rounds leading up to it.  Maybe use them as collateral to trade up for a guy like Pickens as you mentioned.  He's had numerous opportunities since the Diggs trade to take quality WR's in the first few rounds and hasn't until it was absolutely essential after trading Diggs.  Now he's bitchin' on a radio show about a very valid criticism that he hasn't made it a priority to get cheap labor at WR.

Here’s a breakdown of wide receivers drafted in the top four rounds, highlighting who the Bills could have reasonably selected at their spots in the first three rounds. (Note: The focus is on rounds 1–3 since the Bills’ fourth-round picks are typically at the end of the round)

 

I counted 61 wide receivers drafted in the top four rounds from 2021 to 2024. The names marked in red are players I would have realistically been willing to draft at the Bills’ prior pick - with the benefit of hindsight.

 

I think there are 8 guys in red text, and they're surrounded by a bunch of landmines. They don't exist in an abundance like you're making it out to be. 

 

2021

 

Players reasonably within reach:

• Kadarius Toney (Pick 20)
• Rashod Bateman (Pick 27)

After Pick 30 (Rousseau):

• Elijah Moore (34)
• Rondale Moore (49)
• D’Wayne Eskridge (56)
• Tutu Atwell (57)
• Terrace Marshall Jr. (59)

After Pick 61 (Basham):

• Josh Palmer (77)
• Dyami Brown (82)
• Amari Rodgers (85)
• Nico Collins (89)
• Anthony Schwartz (91)

After Pick 93 (Brown):

• Dez Fitzpatrick (109)
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (122)
• Jaelon Darden (129)
• Tylan Wallace (131)
• Jacob Harris (141)

2022

 

Players reasonably within reach:

• Jahan Dotson (16)
• Treylon Burks (18)

After Pick 23 (Elam):

• Christian Watson (34)
• Wan’Dale Robinson (43)
• John Metchie III (44)
• Tyquan Thornton (50)
• George Pickens (52)
• Alec Pierce (53)
• Skyy Moore (54)

After Pick 63 (Cook):

• Velus Jones Jr. (71)
• Jalen Tolbert (88)

After Pick 89 (Bernard):

• David Bell (99)
• Danny Gray (105)
• Erik Ezukanma (125)
• Romeo Doubs (132)
• Calvin Austin (138)

2023

 

Players reasonably within reach:

• (Trading up between Picks 20–23 wasn’t realistic; those teams stood pat.)

After Pick 25 (Kincaid):

• Jonathan Mingo (39)
• Jayden Reed (50)
• Rashee Rice (55)

After Pick 59 (Torrence):

• Marvin Mims (63)
• Tank Dell (69)
• Jalin Hyatt (73)
• Cedric Tillman (74)
• Josh Downs (79)

After Pick 91 (Williams):

• Michael Wilson (94)
• Tre Tucker (100)
• Derius Davis (125)
• Charlie Jones (131)
• Tyler Scott (133)

2024

 

Players reasonably within reach:

• Xavier Worthy (28)
• Ricky Pearsall (31)
• Xavier Legette (32)

After Pick 33 (Coleman):

• Ladd McConkey (34)
• Ja'Lynn Polk (37)
• Adonai Mitchell (52)

After Pick 60 (Bishop):

• Malachi Corley (65)
• Jermaine Burton (80)
• Roman Wilson (84)
• Jalen McMillan (92)

After Pick 95 (Carter):

• Luke McCaffrey (100)
• Troy Franklin (102)
• Javon Baker (110)
• Devontez Walker (113)
• Jacob Cowing (135)

Edited yesterday at 09:25 PM by JGMcD2

[Einstein]

3 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

Submitted for your approval

Yeah I don't recall Josh ever getting to face AJ Klein when playing the Chiefs. Or getting to play against Daquan Jones with a bum arm (or was it shoulder?).

[pigpen65]

Clearly Cook's last year then. 

[Simon]

5 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Yeah I don't recall Josh ever getting to face AJ Klein when playing the Chiefs. Or getting to play against Daquan Jones with a bum arm (or was it shoulder?).

 

I think DQ was coming off a torn pec (like Ed Oliver the year before).

Jordan Phillips was the shoulder issue that had him playing one-armed.