Elijah Moore Visiting the Bills today (Update: Signed!)

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I would say it was both. The Chiefs have fallen behind by at least 10 points in every single Super Bowl they've played in, and in all but two their offense eventually found its groove and completed the comeback. But Philly's elite WRs allowed them to build a lead that was insurmountable so by the time KC started moving the ball it was too late. That 2nd half deep TD to Devonta Smith was the dagger that ended any chance of a comeback. Tampa Bay also had an elite WR corps when they beat KC.

 

But the other factor Philly and Tampa had in their Super Bowls was not just one elite pass rusher but waves of pass rushers that they were able to relentlessly send after Mahomes. So in that sense I like the way Beane has attacked the DL this offseason. A lot will depend on how well the three rookies develop and/or DeWayne Carter improves, but right now it looks semi-realistic that we could be 9 or 10 players deep with legit DL talent. That's the formula that has proven successful to harass and ultimately beat Mahomes in the playoffs so on paper at least I like the strategy.

To be fair to the Chiefs, in both those SuperBowl losses the  Chiefs oline was also injured. Against Bucs both OTs were out and against Eagles the LT was out forcing their All-pro LG to play LT. 

Doesnt change the narrative. Bills need to get more pass rush. Bengals Oline was devastated with injuries and they never got close to Burrow in playoff loss. 

Hopefully Beane solved the issue with the mix of FA and draft picks for the DL. 

[Goin Breakdown]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't know how much to read into that to be honest. The catchable targets stat doesn't seem to really indicate anything. Even if you assume the subjective data is accurate, what is there to take away from this chart:

 

Moore is 5th from the top. But not too far below him you have WRs that had very good QB situations and still managed to produce with the catchable targets they had - Dell, Flowers, Jameson Williams, AJ Brown, Worthy.

 

This stat actually reveals Moore's biggest problem. 71.4% catchable targets but only a 59.8% catch rate... That's why he hasn't been able to stick in the NFL, he is not making the most of his opportunities. Poor catch radius and poor adjustments in zone.

I hope he just suffered from poor placement of employment. 

[oldmanfan]

2 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Yep

 

I don't think we are going to have an elite receiving group. We don't yet have a guy that DCs lose sleep wondering how to cover.

 

What I think the Bills do have is a lot of average to good (some very good) players, and the variety to scheme up an attack week to week based on that teams weaknesses.

 

Are they bad against the run/inclement weather? Break out the jumbo sets and pound it.

 

Do they play heavy zone? Shakir is devastating against zone 

 

Do they play heavy man? Well now we have Palmer and Moore (hopefully Keon) as man beaters.

 

I think that a 11 formation of Moore/Palmer at X, Coleman at Y, Shakir in the slot and Kincaid/Knox at TE and Cook/Davis/Ty is a replicable base offense to attack from

 

I agree with much of what you’ve said.  Last year at this time, and dealing with the same arguments, I said the most important thing for the offense going into the season was Brady.  Brady needed to develop his offense and his everybody eats philosophy.  And the results were one of the best offenses in the league, and an MVP for its QB.

 

Going into this year the same questions arise.  We have added two WRs in Palmer and Moore, have two guys in Coleman and Samuel coming back from injury, Shakir after a really good year, and the TEs (Kincaid has to come back from injuries) and RBs (I would now prioritize making a deal with Cook).  
 

Where I might differ is on the WR#1.  Would I want a guy like a Justin Jefferson?  Sure!  But let’s remember what happened when we had that #1 guy in Diggs with Brady’s offense.  Allen was pressured into getting him his touches, and the offense two years ago (once Brady took over) was not as good as last year. And of course the diva stuff on top of it.   So if we can get a guy with # 1 talent that would not give us the diva stuff sign me up.  Until then, I think we’re still going to be really damn good this coming season.

Edited 4 hours ago by oldmanfan

[Patrick Duffy]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I would say it was both. The Chiefs have fallen behind by at least 10 points in every single Super Bowl they've played in, and in all but two their offense eventually found its groove and completed the comeback. But Philly's elite WRs allowed them to build a lead that was insurmountable so by the time KC started moving the ball it was too late. That 2nd half deep TD to Devonta Smith was the dagger that ended any chance of a comeback. Tampa Bay also had an elite WR corps when they beat KC.

 

But the other factor Philly and Tampa had in their Super Bowls was not just one elite pass rusher but waves of pass rushers that they were able to relentlessly send after Mahomes. So in that sense I like the way Beane has attacked the DL this offseason. A lot will depend on how well the three rookies develop and/or DeWayne Carter improves, but right now it looks semi-realistic that we could be 9 or 10 players deep with legit DL talent. That's the formula that has proven successful to harass and ultimately beat Mahomes in the playoffs so on paper at least I like the strategy.

 

 I don't see where one could argue it wasn't, You're correct both were big factors. That being said, I think the way the Dline performed so well to set the tone for the entire defense as a whole was what made the most difference by a good margin imo.

 

 

[nedboy7]

 

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

2 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Moore for WR3 in targets

 

Shakir

Palmer

Moore

 

Samuel

Coleman

 

unless Keon takes a leap 

I rearranged your list a little

 

Shakir

Coleman

Moore/Palmer rotation

 

Samuel

Palmer

Edited 4 hours ago by JakeFrommStateFarm

[The Firebaugh Kid]

7 hours ago, boyst said:

shenault over codrington is my guess if it comes down to it. you don't think he has value to return kicks?

Codrington is amazing. NFW

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Low Positive said:

I want to agree with this because it makes sense, but I'm having a hard time finding an example of a passcatcher making a big leap in production due to improved QB play. They seem to be who they are. 

Cooper Kupp did fine with his first QB, but he exploded when Stafford arrived. He went from 974 yards to 1947. Since then he's been slowed by injuries.  So, there is one. 

 

But I agree. I'm not expecting Moore to double his previous season's output.  Still, he's moving on from two disorganized teams without quarterbacks to a team whose offense is designed to get every guy open sooner or later, with a good quarterback, he's gotta think he's turned some kind of corner.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

5 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

You are insane. The guy isn’t even good. He’s fighting for the 5th spot. Do people even watch other teams? 

Don’t be surprised when he outperforms everybody’s expectations. He’s a very skilled route runner, he gets open, he’s got great hands and great footwork, and he’s fast as hell. That’s a hard yes for me.

[Patrick Duffy]

1 hour ago, Goin Breakdown said:

I hope he just suffered from poor placement of employment. 

 

Well, I can't see how the teams and QBs he's had in his career would not be taken into some sort of consideration. I mean it certainly can make a difference, especially in his case.

[PrimeTime101]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't know how much to read into that to be honest. The catchable targets stat doesn't seem to really indicate anything. Even if you assume the subjective data is accurate, what is there to take away from this chart:

 

Moore is 5th from the top. But not too far below him you have WRs that had very good QB situations and still managed to produce with the catchable targets they had - Dell, Flowers, Jameson Williams, AJ Brown, Worthy.

 

This stat actually reveals Moore's biggest problem. 71.4% catchable targets but only a 59.8% catch rate... That's why he hasn't been able to stick in the NFL, he is not making the most of his opportunities. Poor catch radius and poor adjustments in zone.

This is more BS in my opinion.. what do they call catchable.. is suspect. when you have bad QB's throwing to you all the time and half of them are barely within reach... you stop trying after a while.. Pro or not. 

[LLCoolCy]

5 minutes ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

I rearranged your list a little

 

Shakir

Coleman

Moore/Palmer rotation

 

Samuel

Palmer

 

how I see it today. Money and draft capital investments by McBeane indicate their plan. 

 

Shakir - primarily slot - lead the team in targets

Coleman - Most snaps in all sets Y/X - 3rd in targets - red zone option 

Kincad - 3/4 primary TE 2nd in targets - red zone option

Palmer - 2nd in snaps X/Y outside and Samuel/Moore 

 

Samuel/Moore rotation 5th/6th snaps Moore 3rd outside rotating with Coleman/Palmer 2nd slot behind Shakir and gadget backfield.

 

Moore will be the primary backup to Coleman and Palmer and sprinkle in when they rest.

Samuel will be the primary backup to Shakir and Kincad when they go 3/4 WR

 

[nedboy7]

This place is miserable.  Try to enjoy the best years we’ll have.  

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

This is more BS in my opinion.. what do they call catchable.. is suspect. when you have bad QB's throwing to you all the time and half of them are barely within reach... you stop trying after a while.. Pro or not. 

 

I watched some game reels yesterday from his time with Cleveland and there were definitely some targets he could have come down with. Here's a good sample game that I posted earlier in the thread:

 

 

Some of the targets are absolutely uncatchable, but there are a couple that a bigger more physically gifted WR would have come down with.

 

But we're talking about the 5th WR on the depth chart so as long as he can get some decent separation and catch passes that hit him between the numbers he'll be worth his roster spot. If Samuel ever gets injured which feels inevitable Moore can step in and do some of the same things.

[SoCal Deek]

I find this place to be interesting. Do I like this signing? Sure! Why not? Would it have made a difference in the Bills making it to the Super Bowl last year? Nope! Will it this year? Probably not, unless Moore catches the damn ball when the AFC Championship Game is on the line. Period. 

[Shaw66]

15 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I find this place to be interesting. Do I like this signing? Sure! Why not? Would it have made a difference in the Bills making it to the Super Bowl last year? Nope! Will it this year? Probably not, 

I agree with this assessment.  However, it's important to note that if the test as to whether a free agent or draftee would have been the difference last season or this season, then there are only 20 or 30 players alive for whom that is true, and all of them were either signed or drafted before the Bills had a chance to get them.  There was no stud receiver available to the Bills. 

 

This is all about team building, trying to get better, player by player and position by position.  That's all.  It's a good team building move.  

[Patrick Duffy]

1 minute ago, PrimeTime101 said:

This is more BS in my opinion.. what do they call catchable.. is suspect. when you have bad QB's throwing to you all the time and half of them are barely within reach... you stop trying after a while.. Pro or not. 

 

Yeah for sure, honestly I question those who see stats with prior teams and that's it. It's simply one of the "common senses" that comes with watching football 

[Cash]

3 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Yep

 

I don't think we are going to have an elite receiving group. We don't yet have a guy that DCs lose sleep wondering how to cover.

 

What I think the Bills do have is a lot of average to good (some very good) players, and the variety to scheme up an attack week to week based on that teams weaknesses.

 

Are they bad against the run/inclement weather? Break out the jumbo sets and pound it.

 

Do they play heavy zone? Shakir is devastating against zone 

 

Do they play heavy man? Well now we have Palmer and Moore (hopefully Keon) as man beaters.

 

I think that a 11 formation of Moore/Palmer at X, Coleman at Y, Shakir in the slot and Kincaid/Knox at TE and Cook/Davis/Ty is a replicable base offense to attack from

 

 

I think you meant Coleman at Z (and I agree).

X = split end

Y = slot

Z = flanker

 

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I agree with much of what you’ve said.  Last year at this time, and dealing with the same arguments, I said the most important thing for the offense going into the season was Brady.  Brady needed to develop his offense and his everybody eats philosophy.  And the results were one of the best offenses in the league, and an MVP for its QB.

 

Going into this year the same questions arise.  We have added two WRs in Palmer and Moore, have two guys in Coleman and Samuel coming back from injury, Shakir after a really good year, and the TEs (Kincaid has to come back from injuries) and RBs (I would now prioritize making a deal with Cook).  
 

Where I might differ is on the WR#1.  Would I want a guy like a Justin Jefferson?  Sure!  But let’s remember what happened when we had that #1 guy in Diggs with Brady’s offense.  Allen was pressured into getting him his touches, and the offense two years ago (once Brady took over) was not as good as last year. And of course the diva stuff on top of it.   So if we can get a guy with # 1 talent that would not give us the diva stuff sign me up.  Until then, I think we’re still going to be really damn good this coming season.

 

It's odd how much better I feel about the WR room after the Moore signing, because Moore isn't anyone special.  But he is a real NFL player, who has earned playing time and targets in all 4 years of being in the league, and he seems to be a good complementary fit to what we already have.  I'll be surprised if Moore has a breakout year, but it's good to know we're not 1 injury away from big Tyrell Shavers snaps.  No disrespect to Shavers, btw - I like him a lot.  But guys like him are basically lotto tickets.  It's good to have some lotto tickets in camp and on the practice squad, but having only 4 non-lotto-ticket WRs was really worrying to me.

 

I'm more optimistic on the Moore signing than either MVS or Claypool last year.  Claypool was already on his way to playing himself out of the league after a promising rookie year.  When the 2023 Bears don't think you can play WR, it's gonna be really tough to turn that ship around.  MVS was a different story, but not much better.  We'd all seen him drop a ton of passes from Mahomes the year before - except in the playoffs.  We all knew who MVS was, and that's a subpar player who can sometimes make a big play if given enough opportunities.  That didn't work out at all for us, I think partially because he was only ever going to get a handful of opportunities in the regular season.

 

Looking at our WR room compared to last year, I like it:

Shakir vs Shakir - should be about a wash

Coleman vs Coleman - no guarantees, but I'm expecting improvement

Samuel vs Samuel - hope springs eternal, but I think Samuel will be no better than last year

 

I expect Palmer to play a hybrid of Hollins & Cooper's roles from last year.  Outside deep threat and plays blocking WR in run sets.  Palmer isn't as good a blocker as Hollins, but hopefully is a better receiver.  Palmer isn't as good a receiver as prime Cooper, but can he be an upgrade over what we actually got last year?

 

Moore doesn't have an obvious comp to last year - maybe MVS pre-Cooper trade.  I suspect he'll get limited snaps when everyone's healthy, and could even be a healthy scratch some weeks if he doesn't play any special teams.  But I expect him to get some WR snaps in every game he's active, and play a mix of the Curtis Samuel role and the Amari Cooper role.

 

[PayDaBill$]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I watched some game reels yesterday from his time with Cleveland and there were definitely some targets he could have come down with. Here's a good sample game that I posted earlier in the thread:

 

 

Some of the targets are absolutely uncatchable, but there are a couple that a bigger more physically gifted WR would have come down with.

 

But we're talking about the 5th WR on the depth chart so as long as he can get some decent separation and catch passes that hit him between the numbers he'll be worth his roster spot. If Samuel ever gets injured which feels inevitable Moore can step in and do some of the same things.

About 38 seconds in had his man beat deep and made a nice adjustment on a mediocre to bad pass. Nice grab at 1:15 as well… a lot of those were uncatchable garbage.

 

 

Edited 3 hours ago by PayDaBill$

[SoCal Deek]

56 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree with this assessment.  However, it's important to note that if the test as to whether a free agent or draftee would have been the difference last season or this season, then there are only 20 or 30 players alive for whom that is true, and all of them were either signed or drafted before the Bills had a chance to get them.  There was no stud receiver available to the Bills. 

 

This is all about team building, trying to get better, player by player and position by position.  That's all.  It's a good team building move.  

Shaw, the point is that there isn’t a player that’ll put them in a position any better than the one they were in last season. The only thing left for the Buffalo Bills to do is to have someone make ‘a play’ at the point of do or die. You either make the play or you go home.
 

The other night I was watching one of the NBA teams (can’t remember which one) lose a game because a player inexplicably let a ball go right through his hands and legs out of bounds when all he had to do was grab it and hold on. The opponent got the ball out of bounds and proceeded to go the length of the floor for the winning layup as time expired. All I could think to myself was geeeez what a Billsy way to screw up a sure victory.