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Fox Sports profile on Keon Coleman


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On 5/21/2024 at 6:43 AM, HappyDays said:

Somewhat of a long read but worth your time.

 

One nugget that I found interesting:

 

Quote

"We're going to be counting on him early in his role," Beane told reporters during the draft. "It's no secret we needed to add a guy like him to fill this X-role that's vacant."

 

There's a much publicized quote from Beane after the draft where he said something to the effect of "it will be hard for Coleman to start from day one." This is the messaging the team always puts out there for their rookies to hear. But he let slip their real plans in the chaos of draft weekend - Coleman is going to be the early favorite for the starting X receiver. And based on this article I think he's going to quickly earn the trust of the coaching staff and win that role.

 

I mean I think this has been pretty obvious since the second his name was called on draft night that he is without question our starting X WR1.  Maybe some people who didn't like the pick thought differently, but there was no other plan for him other than this.  It was always going to be his job unless he just has a disaster of a camp or got hurt. 

 

There are a lot of people who had some delusion that he was here to replace Gabe and Beane was still going to make some crazy trade for a top end vet, but there was never any reality to that.  The only way Beane considers that is again if Coleman just flops in camp and preseason and they feel desperate to add someone.  But so far, he has done nothing but wow and impress on and off the field, so that seems pretty improbable.

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Posted (edited)

Can't say I know what the future will bring but I'm good with the Coleman pick, as prospects go. I'm not that concerned with his 40 time. My draft fav was A. Mitchell but he fell flat in numerous combine interviews. What I didn't know was that he sometimes went off his diabetes meds giving rise to occasional behavioural issues, including on-field. When on his meds he's a good kid but I've known some folks with the same problem - stop their meds because of side effects or they just think they don't need them when actually they really do need them. A number of teams passed on Mitchell for those reasons, including most probably the Bills. And frankly I don't blame them for doing so. I continue to think (with Cosell) that he has the potential to be one of the games premier receivers. I hope he makes it. He landed in a good spot. 
All of this to say that in drafting players the guy's head is every bit as important as the perception of his raw talent and potential. Its obvious that in Coleman's case they not only loved the player but the person as well. I would not be surprised if he turned into another Alshon Jeffery or better (even though AJ's 40 time was faster). I do however acknowledge the possibility that he could wind up being one of Beane's freak athletes that while decent never quite meets expectations (I'm thinking of a MLB in particular). I very much doubt that he will bust.

Edited by starrymessenger
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5 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Your data is your opinion, not fact.  From my reading it seems you view tape and make decisions as to whether you think there is, for example, separation on a pattern.  And when you go into an analysis with a preconceived slant, which it appears you might have, confirmation bias creeps in.

 

You make it sound as though bias is a quality possessed by PBF81 alone. Something which uniquely taints his analyses, in comparison to the unbiased analyses you could get elsewhere.

 

We all have biases. You have a very strong bias against PBF81. That's why you haven't listened to a single thing he's had to say, except for the purpose of dismissing it.

 

There's a chance the Bills' front office's assessment of Coleman is accurate, and that he will turn into the player we all hope he becomes. But any draft pick involves risk. The specific risk with Coleman is that PBF81 is right. It's not as though PBF81 made up stuff out of whole cloth, for the sole purpose of bringing down your mood. I've watched every pass attempt to Coleman for his 2023 season, and I can see why PBF81 is saying the stuff he is. I'm not saying his predictions are right or wrong. I strongly hope Coleman becomes an excellent receiving option for Josh Allen. Allen definitely deserves a better supporting cast than he's gotten thus far!

 

I firmly believe that differences in perspective can be extremely valuable to this board. That value creation happens most when people explain why they believe what they believe. The next time you respond to one of PBF81's posts, I would strongly appreciate if you asked yourself the question, how can I respond to this, in the way which adds good value to this board?

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Call me crazy but I think Coleman can develop into a plus route runner. He does that he will be a very good wr.  Coleman has the opportunity cost.  200 plus targets are out of the offense.  The level of investment into the prospect is there too.  Colemans ceiling is rookie of the year and beyond. 

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I appreciate all you stay at home GM’s and the effort you have brought to today’s thread. I was onboard with the Bills’ draft strategy, and believe in this kid as a player until I see otherwise. We all know the draft is a crap shoot. Here is my guess:  Keon will catch 10 tds and have at least 600 yards receiving in our offense. Not an all time rookie season but a very good one. Josh Allen will make him better than several drafted before and after him. I have no proof, but I do have the success of his predecessors to demonstrate the point. (Gabe D $13M). Tack on some rushing and return yards and the yellow jacket will outshine all the negativity. 

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1 hour ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

You make it sound as though bias is a quality possessed by PBF81 alone. Something which uniquely taints his analyses, in comparison to the unbiased analyses you could get elsewhere.

 

We all have biases. You have a very strong bias against PBF81. That's why you haven't listened to a single thing he's had to say, except for the purpose of dismissing it.

 

There's a chance the Bills' front office's assessment of Coleman is accurate, and that he will turn into the player we all hope he becomes. But any draft pick involves risk. The specific risk with Coleman is that PBF81 is right. It's not as though PBF81 made up stuff out of whole cloth, for the sole purpose of bringing down your mood. I've watched every pass attempt to Coleman for his 2023 season, and I can see why PBF81 is saying the stuff he is. I'm not saying his predictions are right or wrong. I strongly hope Coleman becomes an excellent receiving option for Josh Allen. Allen definitely deserves a better supporting cast than he's gotten thus far!

 

I firmly believe that differences in perspective can be extremely valuable to this board. That value creation happens most when people explain why they believe what they believe. The next time you respond to one of PBF81's posts, I would strongly appreciate if you asked yourself the question, how can I respond to this, in the way which adds good value to this board?

 

Here's my problem with guys like PBF81...he didn't come up with his "Keon Coleman can't separate" narrative on his own. He read something that someone wrote, who read something that someone else wrote, who all trace back to a single source (Harman) about how how per some metrics Keon Coleman couldn't separate at FSU and he should be a big slot or he will flop in the NFL. Now everyone else is parroting "big slot" based on their "film study", including MB scouts.

 

When questioned, the old fallback is "I do better than NFL front offices, look up my stats!" or "lets review the tape together"  Please. You want to review tape together?  Instead of telling me when Coleman got separation...PBF81 or any armchair scout, please breakdown the first three plays from the video. Tell me about the offensive concept, the defense, and the WR keys/reads. I want to see if you actually know what you are talking about, or if you are literally just watching for outcomes. That will tell me if you are worth listening to or not.

 

Hypothetical?  Fine...everyone has an opinion. But acting like you are a football expert...come on man.  Save it for someone that is more gullible

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2 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

 

Here's my problem with guys like PBF81...he didn't come up with his "Keon Coleman can't separate" narrative on his own. He read something that someone wrote, who read something that someone else wrote, who all trace back to a single source (Harman) about how how per some metrics Keon Coleman couldn't separate at FSU and he should be a big slot or he will flop in the NFL. Now everyone else is parroting "big slot" based on their "film study", including MB scouts.

 

When questioned, the old fallback is "I do better than NFL front offices, look up my stats!" or "lets review the tape together"  Please. You want to review tape together?  Instead of telling me when Coleman got separation...PBF81 or any armchair scout, please breakdown the first three plays from the video. Tell me about the offensive concept, the defense, and the WR keys/reads. I want to see if you actually know what you are talking about, or if you are literally just watching for outcomes. That will tell me if you are worth listening to or not.

 

Hypothetical?  Fine...everyone has an opinion. But acting like you are a football expert...come on man.  Save it for someone that is more gullible

All it takes is for one narrative... 

 

And everybody runs with it... Even in scouting 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

You make it sound as though bias is a quality possessed by PBF81 alone. Something which uniquely taints his analyses, in comparison to the unbiased analyses you could get elsewhere.

 

We all have biases. You have a very strong bias against PBF81. That's why you haven't listened to a single thing he's had to say, except for the purpose of dismissing it.

 

There's a chance the Bills' front office's assessment of Coleman is accurate, and that he will turn into the player we all hope he becomes. But any draft pick involves risk. The specific risk with Coleman is that PBF81 is right. It's not as though PBF81 made up stuff out of whole cloth, for the sole purpose of bringing down your mood. I've watched every pass attempt to Coleman for his 2023 season, and I can see why PBF81 is saying the stuff he is. I'm not saying his predictions are right or wrong. I strongly hope Coleman becomes an excellent receiving option for Josh Allen. Allen definitely deserves a better supporting cast than he's gotten thus far!

 

I firmly believe that differences in perspective can be extremely valuable to this board. That value creation happens most when people explain why they believe what they believe. The next time you respond to one of PBF81's posts, I would strongly appreciate if you asked yourself the question, how can I respond to this, in the way which adds good value to this board?

I have listened and read some of his stuff.  But unfortunately he makes the mistake that is made far too often here and indeed in society at large:  he confuses opinion for fact.  I have made that mistake myself at times.  It’s an easy trap to fall into.  When looking at footage and trying to say that Coleman in this case (substitute any player you want) and saying he didn’t get separation and such is a subjective assessment.   Facts are not subjective.  And I note that when others have watched the same footage and offered differing views they were either ignored or their thoughts discarded.  
 

Do we all have biases?  Of course.  Is it perhaps your bias that your views on Coleman are more aligned with the individual in question, and that may have prompted your response?  I don’t know, you are the only one who can answer that.  But when you ask how can I respond in a way that gives value, let me offer two things I have done which I hope do that:

 

1.  I have provided insight from my scientific background on the subject of confirmation bias, which I think adds to the discussion by cautioning folks to not just jump onto the bandwagon or dismiss a player based on some of the discussions herein.  
 

2.  I have freely indicated that I don’t do exhaustive review of film and such.  I do not do so for two reasons:  a).  I don’t have the time and 2).  Even if I did, I do not have the expertise to judge the play of a college player and how that may or may not translate to the NFL.  Nor do the majority of folks on this board, I suspect.   How Coleman and the others do will make itself clear now that OTAs have started and camp is around the corner.
 

As you do, I firmly believe in differing perspectives and their value.  Where it gets difficult is when some slavishly adhere to their opinion and refuse to discuss or lash out personally at those with differing views.  I don’t think I’ve done so here.  I have in the past and have felt bad about it after.  
 

I hope this offers clarification.  I will no longer be responding to any of the individual’s posts on player evaluations, as it has been made clear that any comments that take issue with his analyses are not welcome.  Other topics however I will consider comment as again, as you point out, differing perspective provide good value.  Which answers the question you pose at the end of your remarks.

 

Go Bills!

Edited by oldmanfan
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12 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

 

Here's my problem with guys like PBF81...he didn't come up with his "Keon Coleman can't separate" narrative on his own. He read something that someone wrote, who read something that someone else wrote, who all trace back to a single source (Harman) about how how per some metrics Keon Coleman couldn't separate at FSU and he should be a big slot or he will flop in the NFL. Now everyone else is parroting "big slot" based on their "film study", including MB scouts.

 

When questioned, the old fallback is "I do better than NFL front offices, look up my stats!" or "lets review the tape together"  Please. You want to review tape together?  Instead of telling me when Coleman got separation...PBF81 or any armchair scout, please breakdown the first three plays from the video. Tell me about the offensive concept, the defense, and the WR keys/reads. I want to see if you actually know what you are talking about, or if you are literally just watching for outcomes. That will tell me if you are worth listening to or not.

 

Hypothetical?  Fine...everyone has an opinion. But acting like you are a football expert...come on man.  Save it for someone that is more gullible

 

You appear to believe that PBF81 doesn't have the right to do his own analysis, unless he's able to articulately explain the offensive concept, the defense, and WR keys. If he does his own analysis anyways, without understanding those things, then that's a form of hubris. Unless he understands what he's seeing at that level, his conclusions can be ignored or dismissed as the parroting of someone else's opinions.

 

I myself don't claim to understand football at that level. But when I watched the video footage of every pass attempt for Coleman, there sure were a lot of plays where the defender was right there. When a pass attempt to Coleman fell incomplete, the typical cause was a defender right there, making a play on the ball.

 

There are some posters here who understand football at a deep level. If one of them says, "Hey! Coleman was a lot better at separation than it may have seemed, due to X, Y, and Z," then of course I'll listen. But I'm not aware that there's any sort of consensus to that effect, among posters with that level of football expertise.

 

From NFL.com's draft profile for Coleman: "Could struggle finding separation to avoid excessive contested catches."

 

If you want to disagree with that, fine. Except in matters of principle, I like hearing both sides of the discussion. In this case, however, I haven't heard a single argument against any of PBF81's positions. The only thing I'm hearing from those who disagree with him is wholesale explanations as to why every word he types should be dismissed or ignored.

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

You appear to believe that PBF81 doesn't have the right to do his own analysis, unless he's able to articulately explain the offensive concept, the defense, and WR keys. If he does his own analysis anyways, without understanding those things, then that's a form of hubris. Unless he understands what he's seeing at that level, his conclusions can be ignored or dismissed as the parroting of someone else's opinions.

 

I myself don't claim to understand football at that level. But when I watched the video footage of every pass attempt for Coleman, there sure were a lot of plays where the defender was right there. When a pass attempt to Coleman fell incomplete, the typical cause was a defender right there, making a play on the ball.

 

There are some posters here who understand football at a deep level. If one of them says, "Hey! Coleman was a lot better at separation than it may have seemed, due to X, Y, and Z," then of course I'll listen. But I'm not aware that there's any sort of consensus to that effect, among posters with that level of football expertise.

 

From NFL.com's draft profile for Coleman: "Could struggle finding separation to avoid excessive contested catches."

 

If you want to disagree with that, fine. Except in matters of principle, I like hearing both sides of the discussion. In this case, however, I haven't heard a single argument against any of PBF81's positions. The only thing I'm hearing from those who disagree with him is wholesale explanations as to why every word he types should be dismissed or ignored.

 

Like I said, there is nothing wrong with having an opinion. there is nothing wrong with doing your own "analysis", either. Lets be real, though...we're all just fans, and most of us are just casual fans who may or may not have played some football at some point in our lives. Our idea of breaking down Keon Coleman's tape is 100% outcome dependent you walk in with the idea that he "doesn't get separation", watch some plays where he isn't wide open, and confirm said opinion. 

 

But I have some counter questions, like...compared to who? What kind of coverage? Who was covering? What route? Was the ball on time? ALL of these are important when grading something as simple as separation, and most of them are not questions a casual fan could answer. 

 

So sure, you can have your opinion...but be real. Just say "I read he can't separate, and based on my untrained eye I can see why they say that". Not " based on my hours of film study, I believe Keon Coleman cannot separate...anyone who disagrees show me where on the tape I am wrong" like they are some sort of authoritative source. Nobody takes that seriously, man. Even if he is right, even a broken clock is right twice a day...

 

As for Coleman, I haven't watched all his plays. But the kid was a major recruit AT POINT GUARD. If you think he isn't athletic enough to separate, you're insane. So if he has had issues, it is more than likely things like inexperience, scheme, etc...

 

Side note:  If a WR separates and the CB recovers before the ball arrives, that is on the QB, not the WR. 

Edited by Mikey152
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1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

I have listened and read some of his stuff.  But unfortunately he makes the mistake that is made far too often here and indeed in society at large:  he confuses opinion for fact.  I have made that mistake myself at times.  It’s an easy trap to fall into.  When looking at footage and trying to say that Coleman in this case (substitute any player you want) and saying he didn’t get separation and such is a subjective assessment.   Facts are not subjective.  And I note that when others have watched the same footage and offered differing views they were either ignored or their thoughts discarded.  
 

Do we all have biases?  Of course.  Is it perhaps your bias that your views on Coleman are more aligned with the individual in question, and that may have prompted your response?  I don’t know, you are the only one who can answer that.  But when you ask how can I respond in a way that gives value, let me offer two things I have done which I hope do that:

 

1.  I have provided insight from my scientific background on the subject of confirmation bias, which I think adds to the discussion by cautioning folks to not just jump onto the bandwagon or dismiss a player based on some of the discussions herein.  
 

2.  I have freely indicated that I don’t do exhaustive review of film and such.  I do not do so for two reasons:  a).  I don’t have the time and 2).  Even if I did, I do not have the expertise to judge the play of a college player and how that may or may not translate to the NFL.  Nor do the majority of folks on this board, I suspect.   How Coleman and the others do will make itself clear now that OTAs have started and camp is around the corner.
 

As you do, I firmly believe in differing perspectives and their value.  Where it gets difficult is when some slavishly adhere to their opinion and refuse to discuss or lash out personally at those with differing views.  I don’t think I’ve done so here.  I have in the past and have felt bad about it after.  
 

I hope this offers clarification.  I will no longer be responding to any of the individual’s posts on player evaluations, as it has been made clear that any comments that take issue with his analyses are not welcome.  Other topics however I will consider comment as again, as you point out, differing perspective provide good value.  Which answers the question you pose at the end of your remarks.

 

Go Bills!

 

Very good post.

 

If a player is picked early in the second round, there is no a priori reason to believe he'll be either a success or a failure. Both possibilities remain open, at least at the start of the discussion. After extensive research, a person might develop a strong feeling for or against a particular player. But even that is far from a mathematical certainty, as shown by the high error rates among front offices around the league. 

 

"I will no longer be responding to any of the individual’s posts on player evaluations, as it has been made clear that any comments that take issue with his analyses are not welcome." I can only speak for myself here. I have no objection to you or anyone else responding to or disagreeing with PBF81's posts. The only thing I would ask is for you or anyone else commenting to acknowledge when you don't know something. For instance, let's say PBF81 writes a long post. You haven't read it yet. It might have confirmation bias. It might not. You don't yet know. So then you read the post, or at least some of it. He's talking about whether Coleman did or didn't get separation. There are times when it's very clear whether a player got separation or not. But other times when maybe it's more subjective. Has confirmation bias been established yet? No! It's possible that his perspective on whether Coleman gained separation is exactly the same as what yours would have been, had you watched the film. So then you watch some of the plays yourself, and decide the extent to which his view of those plays overlaps with yours. If your own analysis is far more favorable to Coleman than his, then at that point you have evidence of confirmation bias. It could be his analysis that's flawed, or your analysis, or maybe both analyses are flawed. But at least now there's something on the table to talk about.

 

If you don't want to do all that work, that's fine. Life is short, and you may choose to spend your time doing something other than football analysis. Totally cool. But if you start throwing around "confirmation bias" anyway, without having watched film or examined a post in detail, then you're deprecating someone else's analysis without having any idea whether it deserves to be deprecated. That does not meet my definition of fairness.  

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5 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Alright, go ahead and make the argument that Rodemaker, Travis and Thorne are objectively better than Richardson and Ewers... 

 

I've not seen them play.  Help me out...tell me what you observed, objectively, during the careers of Rodemaker, Travis, Thorne.  

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2 hours ago, Mikey152 said:

 

Like I said, there is nothing wrong with having an opinion. there is nothing wrong with doing your own "analysis", either. Lets be real, though...we're all just fans, and most of us are just casual fans who may or may not have played some football at some point in our lives. Our idea of breaking down Keon Coleman's tape is 100% outcome dependent you walk in with the idea that he "doesn't get separation", watch some plays where he isn't wide open, and confirm said opinion. 

 

But I have some counter questions, like...compared to who? What kind of coverage? Who was covering? What route? Was the ball on time? ALL of these are important when grading something as simple as separation, and most of them are not questions a casual fan could answer. 

 

So sure, you can have your opinion...but be real. Just say "I read he can't separate, and based on my untrained eye I can see why they say that". Not " based on my hours of film study, I believe Keon Coleman cannot separate...anyone who disagrees show me where on the tape I am wrong" like they are some sort of authoritative source. Nobody takes that seriously, man. Even if he is right, even a broken clock is right twice a day...

 

As for Coleman, I haven't watched all his plays. But the kid was a major recruit AT POINT GUARD. If you think he isn't athletic enough to separate, you're insane. So if he has had issues, it is more than likely things like inexperience, scheme, etc...

 

Side note:  If a WR separates and the CB recovers before the ball arrives, that is on the QB, not the WR. 

 

You make some good points.

 

If a football expert watches Keon Coleman's film, he or she will get more out of it than I would, if I watched that same film. Nevertheless, I've found that I can learn a lot about a player very quickly, by watching his film. For example, I remember reading about how Trent Edwards had a great practice. He was hitting horizontally moving targets in perfect stride! I watched the video clip myself, and saw the opposite. Receivers had to slow down considerably to catch his passes. Based on that, I concluded he lacked a crucial trait necessary for a West Coast quarterback to be successful. The other lesson I learned that day is that watching the film makes you a lot more informed. More grounded in reality. I'd believed the hype about him hitting his targets in perfect stride, right up until I watched the film.

 

I watched a video of every pass attempt to Coleman for the 2023 season. What did I see? Lots of passes broken up due to a defender being right there. There were a lot of short passes/short completions. These were too short for the defense to provide tight coverage. This type of pass became significantly more common later in the video (i.e., later in the season). There were a few passes where there was no one near him, due to what the announcers described as defensive miscommunication. What I saw very little of, was him getting nice and open due to having run a good route. I'm not saying this never happened, just that it was rare.

 

Those are the raw data, at least as seen through my eyes. Now comes the tricky part. Interpretation. An apparent lack of separation can be the QB's fault, either due to a late throw, or an inaccurate throw. The OC can contribute to the problem, by failing to scheme guys open. All that being said, the subjective impression I came away with was that I really didn't want to rely on Coleman to get open, for anything over 5 yards. It felt like the offense would suffocate, if you were relying on him to get open on anything more than a very short pass. 

 

Okay, so that's just my subjective impression. I could be right, or I could be wrong. But for the sake of argument, consider the players who weren't good at route running at the college level. Of those, how many become good at running routes in the NFL? That's the risk you take when you draft a guy like Coleman. Running routes and getting open is about more than just athleticism. Take a guy like Justin Shorter. Good size. Good height. Good 40 time. At least at first glance, you have to like his physical traits. What kind of NFL career are you expecting Shorter to have? I'm not saying Coleman will be the next Shorter. But neither am I saying he's the next Jerry Rice, or even the next Stevie Johnson. Bottom line: the Bills took a chance on a guy becoming a better football player in the NFL than he was in college. We'll see how this pans out.

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One other thing I'd like to add. According to the NFL.com draft profile for Coleman, his athleticism score is 66 (est). That's the 35th best score for a WR in the 2024 combine. Yeah, I'm almost certain you could point to a number of NFL receivers with similar or worse athletic tools than those, who got the job done. But, it's not like people are going to wake up in the dead of night, with their eyes literally popping out of their sockets, due to their awe at Coleman's athleticism.

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11 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

One other thing I'd like to add. According to the NFL.com draft profile for Coleman, his athleticism score is 66 (est). That's the 35th best score for a WR in the 2024 combine. Yeah, I'm almost certain you could point to a number of NFL receivers with similar or worse athletic tools than those, who got the job done. But, it's not like people are going to wake up in the dead of night, with their eyes literally popping out of their sockets, due to their awe at Coleman's athleticism.

It's an estimated score because he did not complete all of the drills 

 

Yet , his RAS, relative athletic score... Is over 8.1 which shows the type of athlete he is at his size 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

One other thing I'd like to add. According to the NFL.com draft profile for Coleman, his athleticism score is 66 (est). That's the 35th best score for a WR in the 2024 combine. Yeah, I'm almost certain you could point to a number of NFL receivers with similar or worse athletic tools than those, who got the job done. But, it's not like people are going to wake up in the dead of night, with their eyes literally popping out of their sockets, due to their awe at Coleman's athleticism.

Help me out. Wasn't his actual ras 9.23? If so isn't that pretty good as far as athleticism is concerned?

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

Help me out. Wasn't his actual ras 9.23? If so isn't that pretty good as far as athleticism is concerned?

He did not do all the drills at the combine or pro day 

 

So they are all slight estimates 

 

It's between a 8.1 and 9.2 from the numbers 

 

And either number is terrific for an athlete 

Edited by Buffalo716
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