Speed: I do the math here

[oldmanfan]

So there are a certain number of folks here who are wailing and gnashing teeth over Coleman because he’s not fast.  That we don’t place emphasis on speed.  So let’s do some math and compare a supposed fast time (4.2) with the supposed slow time of 4.6, which if memory serves correct is Coleman.
 

The formula is simple:  40 yards/time gives you how many yards per second.

 

For 4.2:  40/4.2= 9.5 yards/sec

For 4.6:  40/4.6 = 8.7 yards/sec

 

So if you have a guy running 40 yards downfield they’d gain about 3 yards. At 4.2 vs 4.6.  Seems like a significant difference although I haven’t run stats.  But I also don’t consider other variables like time to accelerate to maximum speed, effect of equipment on times, and such.  
 

For me I’d be looking not just for speed, but how fast you get to top speed, how long you can maintain top speed, arm length (longer arms may negate the gap based purely on speed), quickness in getting in and out of breaks.  And likely more if I gave it more thought.  This is why Marcel St. Jacques wrote an article for espn.com indicating the 40 time isn’t very useful anymore.

 

So this kid may not be a sprinter, but he’s quite the athlete (all state basketball), young still, will have height advantages over many corners.  I’m intrigued to see what he and other drafted guys bring to the table.

[KDIGGZ]

I see a lot of numbers trying to justify him being slow. It is what it is. He's slow. Hopefully he can make it up elsewhere (jump balls, catch radius, etc).

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

I see a lot of numbers trying to justify him being slow. It is what it is. He's slow. Hopefully he can make it up elsewhere (jump balls, catch radius, etc).

Another thing scientists (I am one) is you never base conclusions on a sample size of 1.  One 40 yard run at the combine is not enough data to conclude anything.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

There is zero correlation between 40 time and how good a WR. If he can run great routes, he can get open. We have other guys who can fly down the field. We didn’t have anyone who can out BAMF dudes for the ball. 

[Victory Formation]

Speed: I do the meth here.

[PayDaBill$]

A lot of other factors come into play, running 40 yds in a straight line isn’t quite the same with gear on, running routes and tracking the ball. It’s just another athleticism metric.

from a nbcsprts.com article in March.

 

 

“Timing of players at the Scouting Combine isn’t just done with stopwatches. It’s also done with chips worn by every player, that tracking their speed during every drill. And last year, that player tracking data showed off the talents of Puka Nacua, a relatively unknown receiver out of BYU who went from fifth-round pick of the Rams to the most productive rookie receiver in NFL history.

Nacua wasn’t great in the traditional tests of athleticism that the NFL has relied on for decades, recording a 4.57-second 40-yard dash. But the player tracking data showed he was the fastest receiver at last year’s Combine in running through the gauntlet drill, in which a receiver runs across the field and catches seven passes in rapid succession. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Nacua reached the fastest speed of any wide receiver during last year’s gauntlet drill at 20.06 mph. That tipped teams off that Nacua plays faster than he runs, something that Nacua proved in his rookie year.

This year, Florida State wide receiver Keon Coleman was similar to Nacua: Coleman ran a disappointing 40 time of 4.61 seconds, but he reached the fastest speed in the gauntlet drill, topping out at 20.36 mph — even faster than Nacua last year. Coleman also reached the second-fastest speed of any wide receiver in his group while running a go route, reaching 21.71 mph.

The player tracking data is new, and there’s not a long history of being able to study how well it correlates to NFL success. But it may prove that players who show elite speed during the on-field drills that more closely approximate what they do on a football field prove to be better players than the ones who run the fastest in a straight line for 40 yards.

In hindsight, teams wish they had paid more attention to Nacua’s player tracking data than to his stopwatch time. Coleman will hope teams remember that during this year’s draft.”

He’s not SLOW …. He has athleticism & speed in the context of the game.

Edited April 28 by PayDaBill$

[oldmanfan]

4 minutes ago, PayDaBill$ said:

A lot of other factors come into play, running 40 yds in a straight line isn’t quite the same with gear on and running routes. It’s just another athleticism metric.

from an nbcsprts.com article;

 

 

“Timing of players at the Scouting Combine isn’t just done with stopwatches. It’s also done with chips worn by every player, that tracking their speed during every drill. And last year, that player tracking data showed off the talents of Puka Nacua, a relatively unknown receiver out of BYU who went from fifth-round pick of the Rams to the most productive rookie receiver in NFL history.

Nacua wasn’t great in the traditional tests of athleticism that the NFL has relied on for decades, recording a 4.57-second 40-yard dash. But the player tracking data showed he was the fastest receiver at last year’s Combine in running through the gauntlet drill, in which a receiver runs across the field and catches seven passes in rapid succession. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Nacua reached the fastest speed of any wide receiver during last year’s gauntlet drill at 20.06 mph. That tipped teams off that Nacua plays faster than he runs, something that Nacua proved in his rookie year.

This year, Florida State wide receiver Keon Coleman was similar to Nacua: Coleman ran a disappointing 40 time of 4.61 seconds, but he reached the fastest speed in the gauntlet drill, topping out at 20.36 mph — even faster than Nacua last year. Coleman also reached the second-fastest speed of any wide receiver in his group while running a go route, reaching 21.71 mph.

The player tracking data is new, and there’s not a long history of being able to study how well it correlates to NFL success. But it may prove that players who show elite speed during the on-field drills that more closely approximate what they do on a football field prove to be better players than the ones who run the fastest in a straight line for 40 yards.

In hindsight, teams wish they had paid more attention to Nacua’s player tracking data than to his stopwatch time. Coleman will hope teams remember that during this year’s draft.”

 

 

Thanks.  This is the kind of data I’d be looking at if I was drafting.

[LeGOATski]

12 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

I see a lot of numbers trying to justify him being slow. It is what it is. He's slow. Hopefully he can make it up elsewhere (jump balls, catch radius, etc).

He does make it up elsewhere, which was obvious to the Bills when they scouted him. It's also why he was a punt returner, despite being tall and "slow."

[mrags]

Here. This is much easier to show the difference of speed. Almost the exact times we’re talking about from a 4.6 to a 4.3. It’s actually a lot. 3yrds is almost 10ft. That’s a lot when your talking about separation on a CB. 
 

 

Edited April 27 by mrags

[KDIGGZ]

1 minute ago, mrags said:

Here. This is much easier to show the difference of speed. Almost the exact times we’re talking about from a 4.6 to a 4.3. It’s actually a lot. 3yrds is almost 10ft. That’s a lot when your talking about separation on a CB. 
 

 

That's the difference between open and not open

[Buffalo Boy]

12 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Another thing scientists (I am one) is you never base conclusions on a sample size of 1.  One 40 yard run at the combine is not enough data to conclude anything.

Not according to half this board 😜

[mrags]

Just now, KDIGGZ said:

That's the difference between open and not open

It’s bigger than that. That’s the difference between covered and a walk in TD 

[PayDaBill$]

3 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

That's the difference between open and not open

Lmao speed queens.. 😉the games not played on a straight line in gym shorts. 
 

Read the article above!

Edited April 27 by PayDaBill$

[Nextmanup]

It doesn't work like that, Dr. Einstein.

 

You are suggesting 40 times are straight up irrelevant in NFL football.

They are not.  

 

 

[OldTimer1960]

16 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

So there are a certain number of folks here who are wailing and gnashing teeth over Coleman because he’s not fast.  That we don’t place emphasis on speed.  So let’s do some math and compare a supposed fast time (4.2) with the supposed slow time of 4.6, which if memory serves correct is Coleman.
 

The formula is simple:  40 yards/time gives you how many yards per second.

 

For 4.2:  40/4.2= 9.5 yards/sec

For 4.6:  40/4.6 = 8.7 yards/sec

 

So if you have a guy running 40 yards downfield they’d gain about 3 yards. At 4.2 vs 4.6.  Seems like a significant difference although I haven’t run stats.  But I also don’t consider other variables like time to accelerate to maximum speed, effect of equipment on times, and such.  
 

For me I’d be looking not just for speed, but how fast you get to top speed, how long you can maintain top speed, arm length (longer arms may negate the gap based purely on speed), quickness in getting in and out of breaks.  And likely more if I gave it more thought.  This is why Marcel St. Jacques wrote an article for espn.com indicating the 40 time isn’t very useful anymore.

 

So this kid may not be a sprinter, but he’s quite the athlete (all state basketball), young still, will have height advantages over many corners.  I’m intrigued to see what he and other drafted guys bring to the table.

It’s not just speed that gets a receiver open.  Quickness and route running skill are as important or more so.  Sometimes coaches can implement schemes to get guys open as well.

 

My particular concerns with Coleman is that he failed to get open frequently against college competition.  I don’t necessarily blame that on his straight line speed.  His lateral quickness looks so-so, but he is at least a fluid mover with excellent size, strength and jumping ability.  Can he sharpen his route running?  He is young and seems to be a hard worker, hopefully he will improve that aspect of his game.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

21 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

So there are a certain number of folks here who are wailing and gnashing teeth over Coleman because he’s not fast.  That we don’t place emphasis on speed.  So let’s do some math and compare a supposed fast time (4.2) with the supposed slow time of 4.6, which if memory serves correct is Coleman.
 

The formula is simple:  40 yards/time gives you how many yards per second.

 

For 4.2:  40/4.2= 9.5 yards/sec

For 4.6:  40/4.6 = 8.7 yards/sec

 

So if you have a guy running 40 yards downfield they’d gain about 3 yards. At 4.2 vs 4.6.  Seems like a significant difference although I haven’t run stats.  But I also don’t consider other variables like time to accelerate to maximum speed, effect of equipment on times, and such.  
 

For me I’d be looking not just for speed, but how fast you get to top speed, how long you can maintain top speed, arm length (longer arms may negate the gap based purely on speed), quickness in getting in and out of breaks.  And likely more if I gave it more thought.  This is why Marcel St. Jacques wrote an article for espn.com indicating the 40 time isn’t very useful anymore.

 

So this kid may not be a sprinter, but he’s quite the athlete (all state basketball), young still, will have height advantages over many corners.  I’m intrigued to see what he and other drafted guys bring to the table.

 

 

So now ask how many long passes are exactly on the money.  I can recall Allen over throwing 5 yards  and also under throwing him by 5 yards.  So to me it's over rated IMO

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 minutes ago, mrags said:

It’s bigger than that. That’s the difference between covered and a walk in TD 

Assuming your QB can make the pass 

[mrags]

Just now, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Assuming your QB can make the pass 

Yeah I was just thinking that Allen has had a problem with throwing passes. Got it 

 

[OldTimer1960]

16 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Another thing scientists (I am one) is you never base conclusions on a sample size of 1.  One 40 yard run at the combine is not enough data to conclude anything.

That’s true, but why do you suppose he didn’t run the 40 again at his pro day?  I think it’s safe to assume that he knew his 4.61 was about the best he can do.  Similarly, he did not do the 3-cone and 20 yard shuttle agility drills at all - very likely he knew these would not be his strengths.

 

That doesn’t mean that he can’t succeed in the league, but it might well cap his ceiling.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, mrags said:

Yeah I was just thinking that Allen has had a problem with throwing passes. Got it 

 

A lot goes into that, no? Seeing the open man is something of a challenge for farmer Josh sometimes I've seen it live, personally.