Rd 4, Pick 128: RB Ray Davis, Kentucky

[Augie]

On 4/28/2024 at 9:28 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

Watch James Cook highlights from last year.  OL was letting him get big gains before he had anyone touching him.  OL was not like the OL of years past last season.    

 

Fair point. It was MUCH better last year which was the result of a better OL and more speed at RB. What a great feeling that is. LOOK AT HIM GO!!! 

[Motorin']

On 4/30/2024 at 2:19 PM, khlax3 said:

I don’t know why everyone assumes Johnson is a lock. I think he is going to be in a competion with frank gore jr for the last running back spot. He likely makes it as the 3rd rb but he has always been a journeyman RB and although I liked what he did at the end of last season people act like he accomplished way more than he actually did.

 

his stats:

132 rushing yards, 0 TDs, 1 fumble

72 receiving yards 1 td

 

So 205 all purpose yards and 1 TD on 37 combined plays. That's 5.5 yards per touch.

 

Slightly better than Cook's 5.3 yards per play for the season. Also Cook averaged 1 TD per 49 plays.

 

So, there no drop off in production, but rather a slight improvement when Johnson got the ball vs Cook. 

[khlax3]

28 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

So 205 all purpose yards and 1 TD on 37 combined plays. That's 5.5 yards per touch.

 

Slightly better than Cook's 5.3 yards per play for the season. Also Cook averaged 1 TD per 49 plays.

 

So, there no drop off in production, but rather a slight improvement when Johnson got the ball vs Cook. 

I like Ty Johnson as I said in my original post and I fully expect him to be RB3 however as you pointed out he only had 37 touches in 10 games. He was also on our practice squad for the first half of the season. I just don’t consider him a lock. 

[Mister Defense]

On 4/28/2024 at 9:35 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

Ray Davis was one of my favorite picks.  He’s gonna eat here, and I don’t know how anyone can watch even the first minute of the video posted and not think he’s fast.  
 

And we don’t have stupid Dorsey anymore afraid to play the talent.  I think Davis and Cook are going to make a dynamic 1-2 punch as the run game continues to be a big part of the offense under Brady.  
 

I said it before the draft…I said it during the draft…and I’ve said it after the draft.  This offense not only will be a top unit again, it has the potential to be the best one of Allen’s career.  I will have a more detailed write up of this tomorrow too.

 

Yup, with the moves Bean made at WR and running back, and possibly at center as well, this could be the best offense of the Allen era---and the best in the NFL this year.

 

The defense will likely need some time to get up to speed after losing some key players, but the offense will carry the team while that happens.

 

They really needed a power  back, a MJD type of player, to punish defenses, something Cook cannot do because of his size.  It will help Cook became an even better, more dangerous player, that combo, maybe an elite one.

[Sweats]

I love this pick.....the dude is a bruiser, has a motor that doesn't quit and great vision.

 

He kind of reminds me of a cross between a Thurman Thomas and a Ladainian Tomlinson. 

I know everyone is talking about the Coleman pick, but this is the guy i'm wanting to see the most in action.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Sweats said:

I love this pick.....the dude is a bruiser, has a motor that doesn't quit and great vision.

 

He kind of reminds me of a cross between a Thurman Thomas and a Ladainian Tomlinson. 

I know everyone is talking about the Coleman pick, but this is the guy i'm wanting to see the most in action.

Cook will have to be pretty good if he's going to keep Thomas and Tomlinson on the bench. 

 

Sometimes I think I've just gone completely homer on this stuff, but the fact is that I'm not only interested in seeing Davis on the field, I'm interested in seeing all of the top five picks on the field.  By the end of the season we could see Coleman, Bishop and Van Pran-Granger starting, and Carter and Davis in significant roles.  

[BADOLBILZ]

 

Beane is gradually getting better at not wasting draft capital on RB's.   Hopefully next time it will be a 5th rounder, then the next a 6th etc..

 

I think Davis is more than capable of being good in a Josh Allen offense that leaves defense's susceptible to the run.   Wouldn't be a stretch for him to be better than James Cook whose instincts, toughness and hands leave a lot to be desired.

 

But generally speaking these guys like Davis with 700-800 touches already coming into the league tend to be due for injury problems due to wear and tear.   See Breece Hall and Etienne for higher profile recent picks who immediately blew a tire after heavy-use NCAAF careers.  

[Cash]

30 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Beane is gradually getting better at not wasting draft capital on RB's.   Hopefully next time it will be a 5th rounder, then the next a 6th etc..

 

I think Davis is more than capable of being good in a Josh Allen offense that leaves defense's susceptible to the run.   Wouldn't be a stretch for him to be better than James Cook whose instincts, toughness and hands leave a lot to be desired.

 

But generally speaking these guys like Davis with 700-800 touches already coming into the league tend to be due for injury problems due to wear and tear.   See Breece Hall and Etienne for higher profile recent picks who immediately blew a tire after heavy-use NCAAF careers.  

Interesting, because I’ve read the opposite: that high-usage guys in college tend to be high-usage guys in the NFL. (Until they eventually break down.)

 

Also, regarding Cook: Totally get the hands complaint, but where are the other two coming from? Especially instincts - any plays stand out where he had bad instincts?

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, Cash said:

Interesting, because I’ve read the opposite: that high-usage guys in college tend to be high-usage guys in the NFL. (Until they eventually break down.)

 

Also, regarding Cook: Totally get the hands complaint, but where are the other two coming from? Especially instincts - any plays stand out where he had bad instincts?

 

 

Yeah Cook is just so-so as a decision maker after the handoff.   It's hit and miss.  That's instinct to me but also a function of intelligence/preparedness.  He's not CJ Spiller level unprepared.......CJ appeared to just make a random decision where to run the ball at the handoff rather than know the play call, read the defense and know ahead of time where the hole should be.   He was a complete dunce.   Fred Jackson was the opposite and that made him a decisive runner.    Cook's game is speed/quickness and not a lot else.   Lousy in pass pro too.     

[JGMcD2]

51 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Beane is gradually getting better at not wasting draft capital on RB's.   Hopefully next time it will be a 5th rounder, then the next a 6th etc..

 

I think Davis is more than capable of being good in a Josh Allen offense that leaves defense's susceptible to the run.   Wouldn't be a stretch for him to be better than James Cook whose instincts, toughness and hands leave a lot to be desired.

 

But generally speaking these guys like Davis with 700-800 touches already coming into the league tend to be due for injury problems due to wear and tear.   See Breece Hall and Etienne for higher profile recent picks who immediately blew a tire after heavy-use NCAAF careers.  

Could the thought be that in a platoon with Cook (and syphoning some of Josh Allen's attempts) it's less likely these issues rear their ugly head?

 

Davis already has the college wear and tear, but he's not likely to get the same type of volume that Hall and Etienne have been getting. 

 

The Jets ran the ball 388 times (29th in the NFL) last season - Breece Hall accounted for 223 of those.

About 60% of the carries were Breece Hall. Dalvin Cook had 67 carries, Zach Wilson had 36 and Israel Abinikanda had 22. 

 

The Jaguars ran the ball 453 (17th in the NFL) times last season - Etienne accounted for 267 of those.

 

About 60% of the carries were Travis Etienne. Trevor Lawrence has 70 carries, Tank Bigsby had 50 and D'Ernest Johnson had 41. 

 

The Bills ran the ball 512 times (5th in the NFL) last season - Cook accounted for 237 of those.

 

About 45% of the carries were James Cook. Josh Allen had 111 carries, Latavius Murray had 79 and Ty Johnson had 30. 

 

For the sake of the exercise, let's say the Bills are able to run the ball over 500 times again next season. At a minimum I would think that Ray Davis assumes the 79 carries that Murray had. I think we would all hope that Josh Allen doesn't carry the ball over 100 times next year - let's say he dips down around the 75 times that Mahomes had to carry the ball last year. That would be another 36 carries. Then maybe he steals a few carries from James Cook as well, another 20?

 

That puts Ray Davis at approximately 135 carries next year. That seems pretty realistic as to what we can support within the offense. 

[Cash]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah Cook is just so-so as a decision maker after the handoff.   It's hit and miss.  That's instinct to me but also a function of intelligence/preparedness.  He's not CJ Spiller level unprepared.......CJ appeared to just make a random decision where to run the ball at the handoff rather than know the play call, read the defense and know ahead of time where the hole should be.   He was a complete dunce.   Fred Jackson was the opposite and that made him a decisive runner.    Cook's game is speed/quickness and not a lot else.   Lousy in pass pro too.     

Ah, gotcha. “Take my word for it.” I’ll pass. 

[Mark Long Beach]

2 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Could the thought be that in a platoon with Cook (and syphoning some of Josh Allen's attempts) it's less likely these issues rear their ugly head?

 

Davis already has the college wear and tear, but he's not likely to get the same type of volume that Hall and Etienne have been getting. 

 

The Jets ran the ball 388 times (29th in the NFL) last season - Breece Hall accounted for 223 of those.

About 60% of the carries were Breece Hall. Dalvin Cook had 67 carries, Zach Wilson had 36 and Israel Abinikanda had 22. 

 

The Jaguars ran the ball 453 (17th in the NFL) times last season - Etienne accounted for 267 of those.

 

About 60% of the carries were Travis Etienne. Trevor Lawrence has 70 carries, Tank Bigsby had 50 and D'Ernest Johnson had 41. 

 

The Bills ran the ball 512 times (5th in the NFL) last season - Cook accounted for 237 of those.

 

About 45% of the carries were James Cook. Josh Allen had 111 carries, Latavius Murray had 79 and Ty Johnson had 30. 

 

For the sake of the exercise, let's say the Bills are able to run the ball over 500 times again next season. At a minimum I would think that Ray Davis assumes the 79 carries that Murray had. I think we would all hope that Josh Allen doesn't carry the ball over 100 times next year - let's say he dips down around the 75 times that Mahomes had to carry the ball last year. That would be another 36 carries. Then maybe he steals a few carries from James Cook as well, another 20?

 

That puts Ray Davis at approximately 135 carries next year. That seems pretty realistic as to what we can support within the offense. 

 

Nice post!   

 

This shows pretty clearly that they're not interested in running Cook into the ground, and that they're concerned about him making it to the post season.   I'm a fan of this.    We definitely needed another RB to carry some of that load and only Ty managed to do it productively to my eyes.   An injury to Cook would be very bad, so we needed someone who has a chance to shoulder some real burden.    I think this kid can do it!  I'm excited to watch him this year.   His tape looked sudden with nice moves in the open field.

 

Fingers crossed

[Nephilim17]

I like his vision going up the middle and he seems like he's got decent hands.

But I'll take his "five foot eight" with a grain of salt; he looks super short. But with some muscle on him that's a lower center of gravity and perhaps harder to tackle. I like his counterpoint to Cook's speed running outside.

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Could the thought be that in a platoon with Cook (and syphoning some of Josh Allen's attempts) it's less likely these issues rear their ugly head?

 

Davis already has the college wear and tear, but he's not likely to get the same type of volume that Hall and Etienne have been getting. 

 

The Jets ran the ball 388 times (29th in the NFL) last season - Breece Hall accounted for 223 of those.

About 60% of the carries were Breece Hall. Dalvin Cook had 67 carries, Zach Wilson had 36 and Israel Abinikanda had 22. 

 

The Jaguars ran the ball 453 (17th in the NFL) times last season - Etienne accounted for 267 of those.

 

About 60% of the carries were Travis Etienne. Trevor Lawrence has 70 carries, Tank Bigsby had 50 and D'Ernest Johnson had 41. 

 

The Bills ran the ball 512 times (5th in the NFL) last season - Cook accounted for 237 of those.

 

About 45% of the carries were James Cook. Josh Allen had 111 carries, Latavius Murray had 79 and Ty Johnson had 30. 

 

For the sake of the exercise, let's say the Bills are able to run the ball over 500 times again next season. At a minimum I would think that Ray Davis assumes the 79 carries that Murray had. I think we would all hope that Josh Allen doesn't carry the ball over 100 times next year - let's say he dips down around the 75 times that Mahomes had to carry the ball last year. That would be another 36 carries. Then maybe he steals a few carries from James Cook as well, another 20?

 

That puts Ray Davis at approximately 135 carries next year. That seems pretty realistic as to what we can support within the offense. 

 

 

Yeah I could see him getting 135 carries.    Not sure you can roll back that odometer though.   850 touches is a sh!t-ton for a rookie NFL RB to enter the NFL with today.   I've just always been skeptical of the high mileage picks and in recent years Etienne and Hall immediately blew knees out after toting the rock a ton during the season and then competing in the draft process all offseason.

[Pete]

10 hours ago, Sweats said:

I love this pick.....the dude is a bruiser, has a motor that doesn't quit and great vision.

 

He kind of reminds me of a cross between a Thurman Thomas and a Ladainian Tomlinson. 

I know everyone is talking about the Coleman pick, but this is the guy i'm wanting to see the most in action.

Maurice Jones Drew is whose style Ray reminds me of.  MJD was a beast.  Similar builds.  Ray is smoother though imo.

[K-9]

On 5/2/2024 at 8:34 AM, Sweats said:

I love this pick.....the dude is a bruiser, has a motor that doesn't quit and great vision.

 

He kind of reminds me of a cross between a Thurman Thomas and a Ladainian Tomlinson. 

I know everyone is talking about the Coleman pick, but this is the guy i'm wanting to see the most in action.

Although he’s a tick slower, I get a Maurice Jones Drew vibe when watching him.

[BCAS Baritone]

From the PFF article "2024 NFL Draft: Five players who were held back by their college situations"

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-five-players-who-were-held-back-by-their-college-situations

 

Quote

RB RAY DAVIS, BUFFALO BILLS
Davis was able to post an elite 91.4 rushing grade despite not having much help around him. Kentucky finished the season tied for 96th in run-blocking grade (56.4). There wasn’t much of a passing game to help alleviate some of the pressure off of his shoulders, as the Wildcats were just 79th in expected points added per pass. It was even worse in 2022 when he was at Vanderbilt. That year, the Commodores were 119th in run-blocking grade and 98th in EPA per pass.