PFF Trade Grades - Round 1 - Bills B+ and A

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS TRADE UP TO NO. 28 TO SELECT WR XAVIER WORTHY

This was by far the best trade-up on Day 1. By making it an even trade in terms of how many picks changed hands, the trade is almost even.

It’s still interesting that the Chiefs seem to be extremely confident in their evaluation of a deep wide receiver class where evaluations were all over the place after the blue-chip prospects that went off the board in the top 10.

That’s why I also don’t hate this from the Bills' perspective. The irrational take is that they gifted a wide receiver to an arch-nemesis that has beaten them in the playoffs in three of the past four years. It’s a deep receiver class, so the Chiefs could have drafted a wide receiver, anyway, if they wanted. And Kansas City's bets at wide receiver haven't necessarily paid off in recent history.

Given how the Bills offseason went, moving down a bit and adding another Day 2 pick makes a lot of sense and is consistent with prior decisions. They don’t get an A here, because they didn’t manage to take advantage of their trade partner. That’s also a shout-out to Chiefs general manager Brett Veach, of course.

 

Grade for the Chiefs: B-

Grade for the Bills: B+

 

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CAROLINA PANTHERS TRADE UP TO NO. 32 TO SELECT WR XAVIER LEGETTE

I’m not sure what the Panthers were thinking here. They are probably overestimating the value of the fifth-year option, which is now fully guaranteed. Thus, they lost a lot of value. If Xavier Legette is good enough to justify picking up the option, the option is much more expensive than it was before the new CBA, and he probably also has enough leverage to ask for an extension before that option would even kick in. Yes, the option would create some leverage for the Panthers in extension talks, but that’s a hypothetical scenario that isn't relevant until many years from now.

The Panthers' move from No. 33 to No. 32 cost them 59 draft slots, and they'll now pay the same player a higher salary. As the following chart from Jason Fitzgerald shows, the rookie wage scale comes with the most significant gap at the end of the first round.

 

From the Bills’ perspective, this was a free move-up on Day 3. Additionally, they are on the clock for 20 hours now, being able to sort out their options. The Panthers gave up a luxury.

 

Grade for the Panthers: D

Grade for the Bills: A

 

2024 NFL Draft: Grades for every Day 1 trade

[harmonkillebrew]

Interesting analysis on the 5th year option and 1st v. 2nd rd salaries and new CBA.  Seems consensus now is that it's better to pick in the top of the 2nd then in the bottom of the 1st.   

[BuffaloBill]

8 minutes ago, harmonkillebrew said:

Interesting analysis on the 5th year option and 1st v. 2nd rd salaries and new CBA.  Seems consensus now is that it's better to pick in the top of the 2nd then in the bottom of the 1st.   

 

 

Bean may be looking at trade up options in the second and third rounds.  My hunch is the Bills are after a DT and two wide receivers with their next three picks.  

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

I doubt Beane is staying put at #33. He has probably been comparing trade packages all day.

[Low Positive]

16 minutes ago, harmonkillebrew said:

Interesting analysis on the 5th year option and 1st v. 2nd rd salaries and new CBA.  Seems consensus now is that it's better to pick in the top of the 2nd then in the bottom of the 1st.   

5th year options are usually meaningless. If the player is good enough to warrant it, teams usually will extend them before that. If they are not, they just decline it. The only time that it comes into play is when guys are on the line of being good enough, like Tua.

[Bruffalo]

2 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

5th year options are usually meaningless. If the player is good enough to warrant it, teams usually will extend them before that. If they are not, they just decline it. The only time that it comes into play is when guys are on the line of being good enough, like Tua.

5th option matters for QBs and arguably EDGE, but I agree with what you're saying generally. 

[Logic]

The Panthers trade was awesome. The 33rd pick is arguably more strategically valuable than the 32nd, because it's very coveted by multiple teams, and you have an entire day to compare various offers and re-set your board, vs having 10 minutes on the clock at pick 32.

Yes, you give up the 5th year option, but that's only of major consequence for QBs and, as the PFF blurb points out, is not as valuable as it once was for other positions.

The Chiefs move was good in a vacuum, and without it, the Panthers trade could not have happened. Obviously, trading with the hated Chiefs still stings.

Taking emotion out of it, it's hard not to conclude that Beane made intelligent strategic choices. 

...But I was still pissed off last night.

[UConn James]

Eventually we’re gonna pick someone, though, right?

 

[EasternOHBillsFan]

3 minutes ago, Logic said:

The Chiefs move was good in a vacuum, and without it, the Panthers trade could not have happened. Obviously, trading with the hated Chiefs still stings.

Taking emotion out of it, it's hard not to conclude that Beane made intelligent strategic choices. 

...But I was still pissed off last night.

 

I was of the same exact mindset! I'm so glad I didn't post last night... different upon the light of day.

Edited April 26 by EasternOHBillsFan

[bills6969]

3 minutes ago, Logic said:

The Panthers trade was awesome. The 33rd pick is arguably more strategically valuable than the 32nd, because it's very coveted by multiple teams, and you have an entire day to compare various offers and re-set your board, vs having 10 minutes on the clock at pick 32.

Yes, you give up the 5th year option, but that's only of major consequence for QBs and, as the PFF blurb points out, is not as valuable as it once was for other positions.

The Chiefs move was good in a vacuum, and without it, the Panthers trade could not have happened. Obviously, trading with the hated Chiefs still stings.

Taking emotion out of it, it's hard not to conclude that Beane made intelligent strategic choices. 

...But I was still pissed off last night.

And if we don’t make that trade with KC and they stay at 32 they likely make the favorable  trade with Carolina

[Bruffalo]

But everyone told me Beane was asleep at the wheel and should be fired... 

[balln]

16 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

5th year options are usually meaningless. If the player is good enough to warrant it, teams usually will extend them before that. If they are not, they just decline it. The only time that it comes into play is when guys are on the line of being good enough, like Tua.

Yea I hear it’s only good for qb 5th year 

[jkeerie]

14 minutes ago, Logic said:

The Panthers trade was awesome. The 33rd pick is arguably more strategically valuable than the 32nd, because it's very coveted by multiple teams, and you have an entire day to compare various offers and re-set your board, vs having 10 minutes on the clock at pick 32.

Yes, you give up the 5th year option, but that's only of major consequence for QBs and, as the PFF blurb points out, is not as valuable as it once was for other positions.

The Chiefs move was good in a vacuum, and without it, the Panthers trade could not have happened. Obviously, trading with the hated Chiefs still stings.

Taking emotion out of it, it's hard not to conclude that Beane made intelligent strategic choices. 

...But I was still pissed off last night.

Last night's take was the most illogical opinion I'd ever heard you express, Logic.

 

In truth...just about anything the Chiefs do pisses me off as a matter of course.

[Logic]

Just now, jkeerie said:

Last night's take was the most illogical opinion I'd ever heard you express, Logic.

 

In truth...just about anything the Chiefs do pisses me off as a matter of course.

Yeah.

It was a combination of me liking Worthy a lot and disliking the Chiefs a lot.

So to sit around for three plus hours eagerly awaiting the Bills pick, then to see that the guy I liked was still on the board, then to see that we traded that pick to the Chiefs, then to see them use that pick to take the player I liked....I was pissed. 

Emotions sometimes win out over calm-headed logic. I am human.

I STILL don't love handing a 4.21 receiver to a team we historically can't stop in the playoffs, but I'll live.

[Low Positive]

5 minutes ago, Logic said:

Yeah.

It was a combination of me liking Worthy a lot and disliking the Chiefs a lot.

So to sit around for three plus hours eagerly awaiting the Bills pick, then to see that the guy I liked was still on the board, then to see that we traded that pick to the Chiefs, then to see them use that pick to take the player I liked....I was pissed. 

Emotions sometimes win out over calm-headed logic. I am human.

I STILL don't love handing a 4.21 receiver to a team we historically can't stop in the playoffs, but I'll live.

Watch this three times and call me in the morning

 

[BillsfaninSB]

We can trade back into the 1st round, right!?

[Shaw66]

22 minutes ago, Logic said:

The Panthers trade was awesome. The 33rd pick is arguably more strategically valuable than the 32nd, because it's very coveted by multiple teams, and you have an entire day to compare various offers and re-set your board, vs having 10 minutes on the clock at pick 32.

Yes, you give up the 5th year option, but that's only of major consequence for QBs and, as the PFF blurb points out, is not as valuable as it once was for other positions.

The Chiefs move was good in a vacuum, and without it, the Panthers trade could not have happened. Obviously, trading with the hated Chiefs still stings.

Taking emotion out of it, it's hard not to conclude that Beane made intelligent strategic choices. 

...But I was still pissed off last night.

I wasn't even pissed last night.  The moves up for the Bills were valuable.  

 

I like Beane's strategy so far.

 

I wonder if he has a tentative deal with the Niners for a receiver.

[Logic]

Just now, Low Positive said:

Watch this three times and call me in the morning

 

Thanks, but I watched plenty of Worthy leading up to the draft. I like him. Time will tell if I'm right or I'm an idiot. For the Bills' sake, we realllly better hope it's the latter, because if it's the former, we directly helped our biggest rival get a lot better on offense. Again.

[GASabresIUFan]

5 minutes ago, Logic said:

I STILL don't love handing a 4.21 receiver to a team we historically can't stop in the playoffs, but I'll live.

I agree with the trade downs, but I also don't like giving Mahomes Hill 2.0.  That said, the Bills were never drafting Worthy and the odds favor KC getting him at 32 anyway.  

 

It was more important for the Bills to get an additional top 100 pick given our needs than worry about KC adding another weapon.  The other truth is KC hasn't really hit on their most recent receivers.  Skyy Moore hasn't yet to make an impact and Rice is on his way to prison.

3 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

Watch this three times and call me in the morning

 

Which is why we were never going to draft him and why Texas went to Mitchell when they needed a big play.

[NewEra]

lol…..now Xavier Worthy is Tyreek Hill 2.0 🤦🏻‍♂️