Oof - the penalty for being good, but not good enough

[Fan in Chicago]

1 hour ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Trade down, Beane, if you know what you're doing

 

I am old but looked up in Google and still couldnt come up with anything. What does the acronym OOF mean?

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

2 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Trade down, Beane, if you know what you're doing

 

This is unpopular, but I think Bills need to go BPA if an elite talent drops. We need more stars on this team. I think the best thing would be a trade up in the 2nd round for a WR since this draft is so deep. I don’t see much difference in the 2nd tier guys and I think one can be had in that area of the draft.  

[BuffaloBill]

2 hours ago, Maynard said:

The closer we get to the draft the more I want us to move up to 8 and grab Odunze. I don’t expect him to slip past Chicago. I know this mortgages our future, but Odunze has character, intelligence, and elite skills. He’d be perfect for Allen. If we can’t make that happen, I’d be okay to move out of the first round altogether and take 2 WR’s to buck the odds. 

 

 

I still feel burned by the Watkins trade and scenario.  WR is too much of a crap shoot to burn future picks.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, Fan in Chicago said:

I am old but looked up in Google and still couldnt come up with anything. What does the acronym OOF mean?

it's not an acronym, it's a sound.

 

like you've been kicked in the scrote.

 

OOF

 

[DCofNC]

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I hear you. That said, I think Odunze is amazing and everything the Bills need in a WR. I see the next Davante Adams in him. He’s also a non-moron.

He’s the guy I’m locked on.  I fear I’m not the only one.  He looks like a guy who’s humble enough to hang around a long time and not be a problem, while being a top 10 WR.  That’s a rare RARE combo.  I kinda feel like this class is going to be one where the top guys might not be all world and there are some guys that really excel drafted later.  I don’t have the time to break down all the guys and try to pick my sleepers, but if you don’t land Odunze, which will take a massive trade up, I don’t think the value presents to take one of the tier 3 guys at 28.  I know a lot of people don’t want to hear it, but barring a big trade up, or someone taking a really unexpected fall (possible, if you look at the year we traded for Diggs, my #1 WR, Lamb fell to 17), then I won’t be shocked if we go back in the draft.   Also wouldn’t be shocked if they caught a stud on D that fell down the board a bit and they went that direction.  I know the board will melt down, but an impact CB, S or DL would make this team more complete and better suited to compete for a title.  The DL we have is not good enough unless Von is fully back and even if so, he’s probably in his last year here.  Then Groot has be signed to more than he’s producing or be replaced, so DE/Edge, whatever you call it, also needs talent added.
 

Big thing to take away, if they don’t start getting impact from the early round guys, this team will always be a bridesmaid and Allen will always be looked at as the QB that “can’t win it all”, which is complete bull####, but that’s the story until he does.  

1 hour ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

I still feel burned by the Watkins trade and scenario.  WR is too much of a crap shoot to burn future picks.

Then there’s Julio Jones.. that worked out and ATL should have a title with him were it not for their own collapse.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

here was the tweet i saw tompsett retweet

 

this is something

 

 

[dave mcbride]

6 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

He’s the guy I’m locked on.  I fear I’m not the only one.  He looks like a guy who’s humble enough to hang around a long time and not be a problem, while being a top 10 WR.  That’s a rare RARE combo.  I kinda feel like this class is going to be one where the top guys might not be all world and there are some guys that really excel drafted later.  I don’t have the time to break down all the guys and try to pick my sleepers, but if you don’t land Odunze, which will take a massive trade up, I don’t think the value presents to take one of the tier 3 guys at 28.  I know a lot of people don’t want to hear it, but barring a big trade up, or someone taking a really unexpected fall (possible, if you look at the year we traded for Diggs, my #1 WR, Lamb fell to 17), then I won’t be shocked if we go back in the draft.   Also wouldn’t be shocked if they caught a stud on D that fell down the board a bit and they went that direction.  I know the board will melt down, but an impact CB, S or DL would make this team more complete and better suited to compete for a title.  The DL we have is not good enough unless Von is fully back and even if so, he’s probably in his last year here.  Then Groot has be signed to more than he’s producing or be replaced, so DE/Edge, whatever you call it, also needs talent added.
 

Big thing to take away, if they don’t start getting impact from the early round guys, this team will always be a bridesmaid and Allen will always be looked at as the QB that “can’t win it all”, which is complete bull####, but that’s the story until he does.  

Then there’s Julio Jones.. that worked out and ATL should have a title with him were it not for their own collapse.

I'm fine with a smaller trade-up for Brian Thomas, Jr, who I think has real stud potential. I realize there might be some risk, but he's a specimen who has produced. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

here was the tweet i saw tompsett retweet

 

this is something

 

 

^^^^

This!  You don't use a lot of capital to trade up for a WR

[boyst]

4 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Trade down, Beane, if you know what you're doing

 

That's 18 WR. Just under 4 yrs average per.  Skewed because some havent been in the league more than 4-5 yra but still. 

[DCofNC]

16 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

here was the tweet i saw tompsett retweet

 

this is something

 

 

Ok, but WHY are they not signing a second contract, is it bc they cost too much?   Obviously, there are busts, but example, I know AJ Brown is on that list of didn’t re-sign. 

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

I'm not as high on Lamb as many are.

 

I love Jefferson and I like Aiyuk

 

Lamb is bonafide top5 in the league

[DCofNC]

16 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I'm fine with a smaller trade-up for Brian Thomas, Jr, who I think has real stud potential. I realize there might be some risk, but he's a specimen who has produced. 

The guy definitely has the measurables, good production last year.  He’s the body type I want them to go get, I have only watched 1 game of him and some highlights, but he strikes me as a guy that could be really good too.  

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Ok, but WHY are they not signing a second contract, is it bc they cost too much?   Obviously, there are busts, but example, I know AJ Brown is on that list of didn’t re-sign. 

Correct 

 

Using second contract signed w same team that drafted them to evaluate WRs is not a great methodology

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Fan in Chicago said:

I am old but looked up in Google and still couldnt come up with anything. What does the acronym OOF mean?

Here's the more technical definition of the acronym:

 

[Boatdrinks]

33 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

^^^^

This!  You don't use a lot of capital to trade up for a WR

This seals it. Clearly the Bills should move up to draft a C. 

[Green Lightning]

5 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Whiiiich is why I'd rather trade the first for him than trade up!

 

My preference in order:

1. Trade Down
2. Trade First for a proven WR (Aiyuk, Higgins, someone)
3. Stay put and draft BPA

In no circumstance to I trust Beane's ability to pick the right guy after trading the farm to move up, and I just don't think a guy like Thomas is worth it.

 

1. Trade Down (ehh, maybe)
2. Trade First for a proven WR (Aiyuk, Higgins, someone) Not happening. Beane wants younger and cheaper
3. Stay put and draft BPA 👍

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

here was the tweet i saw tompsett retweet

 

this is something

 

 

 

I'm not sure "signed a second contract with the team that drafted them" is a good criterion to decide if a player is a "hit" or a "miss".  Take, for example, Edmunds.  Did he sign a 2nd contract with the team that drafted him?  No.  Was it because he was a "miss"?  No, he started 5 years for the Bills and didn't sign a 2nd contract only because he made himself a very high priced FA, and we prioritized re-up'ing our 1st round QB (drafted that same year) and 1st round DT.

 

And (for example) 2019 QB Daniel Jones counts as a "hit" because he was offered a 2nd countract - but do Giants fans count him as a hit?  Do we?

 

 

 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

There is a lot to pore through when it comes to this type of data.  I think a few things can be made clear

 

1 - Draft classes are not created equal across the board, but even more so at specific positions.  2021 for example didn't look to have much when it came to talent graded as 1st rounders across the board.  

2 - Teams overdraft for need.  "we need a big body" "we need speed" etc. Falling in love with a trait over a player.  

3 - It doesn't make sense to compare trends of where players are picked.  I'd more look at previous drafts as trying to get an understanding of how GM's move on the board.  You grade prospects every year against each other, but also against previous year players as well.  Like i don't care where Bateman was picked, what grade did we have on him and what did we see him as?  

4 - The big board where you grade prospects regardless of position is where you'd want to identify your own personal hit/miss rate.  Why did we grade basham over humphrey?  Did we even have them graded in that order?  Did we double down at End for a specific reason? Was it a reach?  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'm not sure "signed a second contract with the team that drafted them" is a good criterion to decide if a player is a "hit" or a "miss".  Take, for example, Edmunds.  Did he sign a 2nd contract with the team that drafted him?  No.  Was it because he was a "miss"?  No, he started 5 years for the Bills and didn't sign a 2nd contract only because he made himself a very high priced FA, and we prioritized re-up'ing our 1st round QB (drafted that same year) and 1st round DT.

 

And (for example) 2019 QB Daniel Jones counts as a "hit" because he was offered a 2nd countract - but do Giants fans count him as a hit?  Do we?

 

 

 

 

 

Tight end is a high "miss" spot - But there aren't a ton of huge busts.  Greg Olsen is considered a "miss" in this exercise, as are TJ hockenson and Evan Engram.  I also don't feel like going through all of it to determine who in the "hits" should be considered a miss.   It's also a position that has evolved considerably so probably not a great example, but i figured its one of the smallest numbers so easiest to find the discrepancies.  

 

Misses (didn't sign 2nd contract with team that drafted them) - 

OJ Howard

Hayden Hurst

Noah Fant - Traded before the 5th year option year to get a QB

TJ Hockenson - Traded because they didn't want to extend him because he was going to set the market at TE

Engram - Good example of the guy throwing you the ball making a difference

Ebron

Gresham

Keller

Olsen - Played like 15 years for Carolina

Watson

Winslow - Signed richest TE contract in history after trade

Graham

Stevens

Becht

 

Hits 

Njoku

Eifert

Pettigrew

Lewis

Davis

Miller

Clark

Shockey

Heap

Franks

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Boatdrinks said:

This seals it. Clearly the Bills should move up to draft a C. 

Or be good enough in scouting to find the right guy for us that would be available at 28 or in the 2nd round. if they can't do that, then trade for someone.  You dont mortgage your future on a WR.