The Dark Horse WR on the Roster (Beane made reference to guys on the roster elevating their play)

[Ralonzo]

7 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Our core group for passing targets is likely to be: Samuel, Kincaid, Rd1 pick, Shakir, Rd 4 pick, Cook, Knox

 

As to who those 2 draft picks will be, that's anyone's opinion as of now.  My "hope" is they take:

Rd 1: Worthy (if there),  or Franklin

Rd4: Javon Baker

 

Curious to see which way Beane takes it: 1) overspend for one of the Big 4 who are highly likely to play X and be WR1, 2) think in terms of drafting a complementary pair for the Diggs and Davis roles. Guys like Mitchell and Leggette are wild cards who could be that WR1 but you're rolling the dice. Cap considerations dectate preservation of draft capital - filling roster holes with entry-level contracts who can contribute to a team with a top-3 QB in the league, i.e. the KC model. It's not enough to build a team just to beat the Chiefs anymore. Of course in a wonderful wonderful world Thomas slips to the 20s and the Bills make the move at a reasonable cost but I think they just can't sell the farm with their cap situation.

 

So of the likely receivers of that tier, you're looking for the guy who can do Diggs things first - sharp routes, separation, and/or insane speed. Explosive guys who threaten at three-levels. Franklin, McConkey, Worthy, Tez Walker, Pearsall (his play metrics concern me tho... Franklin's are excellent). If you're not in love with one of them, someone should be in reach from 60 for a small move-up - or certainly in the mid-30's after a small move down from 28. From there your R4 and after guys who can be the X are Rice, Baker, Polk, McCaffrey even Wilson or Coleman if they drop to the R3/R4 range. There's probably PFA guys out of this group who'd have a chance out of this class.

 

Being a degenerate mock drafter I've come around to the trade-down approach more often that not and found value to fill roster holes where if half of them hit, the Bills window stays open even this year. Difference makers come out of every round and every draft; even if Beane isn't hitting home runs he's been among the tops hitting singles and doubles, guys who can play in the league and help a team. That's what the Bills need out of their drafts now.

[RyanC883]

need a legit game changing WR1 who can function in the playoffs (something Diggs did not do).  If Diggs shows up in the playoffs, we are likely talking about at least 1 SB win.  

 

I think we need to move up for one of the top 3 (Nabers, Harrison, or Odunze).  

[ChevyVanMiller]

I think Shavers is a dark horse to make the final roster. Mainly because he was considered the best gunner in the nation his last year in college (see the tweet below).

With the changes to the return game, and with some longtime Bills ST players gone, I think he gets a real look.

 

MeRk on X: "I’ll be blunt, Tyrell Shavers is an elite special teams player and was the best gunner I watched all of last year, and it wasn’t close…at all…great add as a UDFA #BillsMafia https://t.co/RoTSAgUsVd" / X (twitter.com)

[fan_in_tx]

Go Get Denzel Mims off Steelers.  Big, Fast.. Ex Jet.. 1m year is a deal. 

[Doc]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

Someone will have to tell Kincaid and Knox (and their agents) that they are WR’s now.

As much as I agree with this, to @Beck Water’s point, I really did like Hamler in 2020. I thought he was a weapon.

 

he is my pick of these bums to get over 200 yards this season. 

 

Eh, Kincaid is basically a big WR.  But I wasn't saying they shouldn't draft a WR early, next week.  And there are still (and will be) guys available out there.

Edited April 19 by Doc

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, ChevyVanMiller said:

I think Shavers is a dark horse to make the final roster. Mainly because he was considered the best gunner in the nation his last year in college (see the tweet below).

With the changes to the return game, and with some longtime Bills ST players gone, I think he gets a real look.

 

MeRk on X: "I’ll be blunt, Tyrell Shavers is an elite special teams player and was the best gunner I watched all of last year, and it wasn’t close…at all…great add as a UDFA #BillsMafia https://t.co/RoTSAgUsVd" / X (twitter.com)

 

We signed Mack Hollins for the league minimum basically.  They can't carry 2 ST only WRs so either you pick the better WR or the better special teamer.  

 

Injuries happen though so he's a definite possibility.  

[Dillenger4]

15 hours ago, Beck Water said:

Beane, in his sincere attempt to persuade us to believe he doesn't view the lack of a Diggs-size talent on the roster as a gaping hole that he intends to address in the draft, alluded to "young guys on the roster who can ascend, but they have to prove it too".  He made an analogy to Terrell Bernard, who played very little his rookie season then "elevated" in a Big Way last season. "Tremaine Who?"

Thought it might be a good time to profile just who is lurking in the depths of the roster.

 

In order of seniority:

1) Andy Isabella, 2019 2nd round pick of the Cards (62 overall).  Small fast guy - 5'8 3/4", 29 3/4" arms, 4.31 40-time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Isabella

"Isabella entered the 2021 season sixth on the Cardinals wide receiver depth chart, and only had one catch the entire season and was inactive for half the season."

The Cards brought him through training camp and onto the active roster, but waived him in early Oct 2022.  Since then he's been on the Ravens and Bills practice squad

Draft profile: https://www.nfl.com/prospects/andy-isabella/32004953-4156-2722-bf26-62181351a224
He was a successful RB and State-level winning track star in HS.  "Isabella has the feet and fakes to uncover in a hallway closet, and the former high school sprint champion proved to Georgia that his ability to win deep should not be underestimated. Isabella could become a menace on option routes with the ability to add vertical routes from the slot, but he must improve his pass-catching consistency and smoothness into his breaks in order to transition all that speed to the NFL."
 

He actually played 34% of the ST snaps for Buffalo last season, but it wasn't as a returner (1 KR to add to 8 previous KR).  He had not previously played much ST.

 

Chance of elevating as a receiver?  I give this "low" - see I think @Kirby Jackson comments about the odds of success for short receivers with short arms.  Never Say Never but....  On the other hand, if he's learned to live with a screw loose, perhaps he could continue to contribute on ST.

 

2) KJ Hamler, 2020 2nd round pick of the Broncos (46 overall).  Another small fast guy - 5'8 5/8", 30 3/4" arms, didn't run at combine, said to have 4.27s 40-time

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K._J._Hamler

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/k.j.-hamler/32004841-4d38-6186-eea5-110d32b9644c

This guy's NFL career to date has been the living demonstration of the lyrics "if it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all".  He had a hammy injury at the combine.  He had 30 catches for 381 yds and 3 TD as a rookie, but finished the season on IR with a hammy. 

In his 2nd year, he had a great training camp and went on IR with a torn ACL Week 3.  

In his 3rd year, he played in 7 games but just as he might have been coming up to speed off the ACL, he suffered another hammy and was IR'd again

In his 4th year, he tore his pec training on his own in the off-season then developed pericarditis in July 2023.  Denver had enough and waived him with Non Football Injury.

He spent 2023 on the Colts practice squad, but was not signed to a futures contract after the season.

 

Chance of elevating as a receiver?  Well, he showed flashes here and there of being able to play in the NFL, but repeated hammies and an ACL make this unlikely unless Beane has directed the equipment staff to cover his locker stall with 4-leaf clovers, hired him a personal leprechaun, and directed one of the training staff to follow him around providing hamstring massage.

 

3) Justin Shorter, Bills 2023 5th round pick (150 overall).  Big guy - 6'4", 229 lb, 33 3/4" arms, 10" hands.  4.55 40-time.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/justin-shorter/32005348-4f65-1252-2fb4-216da3af656d

Spent last season on IR.  

 

He was the top receiver prospect in the country in 2018, but somehow never delivered on that promise at the college level.  Was benched for dropping passes at Penn State.  Made good at Florida, but was limited his Sr year due to hammy injuries.  Spent his rookie year with the Bills on IR due to (wait for it) hammy injury.

 

His scouting profile, not that Zierlein is infallible, is not encouraging to me; I translate it as "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane".  It praises his physicality and toughness and ability to track the ball and high-point a catch, but also notes below-average foot quickness, slow and linear release that make it hard for him to beat press coverage, and loss of momentum in turns.  Reading between the lines, I kind of get the sense of a guy who might have let his HS success go to his head a bit?

Being on IR meant he could not practice with the team, except for a 3 week "designated for return" interval which saw him returned to IR.

 

4) Tyrell Shavers, 2023 UDFA from San Diego State after transferring from Alabama to Mississippi to SD State.  Big guy - 6'4", 211 lb, 32 3/8" arms, said to run 4.55 40

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/san-diego-state-2023-nfl-draft-scouting-reports-include-jesse-matthews-alama-uluave-and-tyrell-shavers/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyrell_Shavers

He's a bit of a dark horse to me.  He apparently spent 3 seasons at Alabama buried on the depth chart, transferred to Mississippi State, saw some playing time and caught 9 passes for 104 yds, then transferred again.  Had 38 passes for 643 yards, and three touchdowns with SD State and was a ST ace.

 

Elevate?  Of the preceding 3, I guess I see Shavers as the most likely - he hasn't been injury plagued.  Because he was on PS not IR he could practice with the team all last season.  The PFN draft report says  "Shavers showed a lot of improvement in his game last season, yet he’s unpolished in most aspects of the receiver position. A lack of speed is a major concern" but also "Displays good route discipline, quickly gets out of breaks, and uses his frame to protect the ball. Works across the field to make himself an available target, possesses terrific eye/hand coordination, and comes away with the difficult catch. Tracks the pass in the air, gets vertical, and extends to make the reception away from his frame. Easily adjusts to the errant throw."

 

Kind of sounds like a guy who potentially could be coached up, if he's willing to put in the work.  Playing speed and burst can be improved by the right training.

 

5) last dark horse:  Bryan Thompson, UDFA from Utah and AZ State.  6'1", 195 lb, 32 5/8" arms, 4.54s 40.
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/arizona-state-2023-nfl-draft-scouting-reports/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Thompson_(American_football)

Didn't do much in college, but the Bills brought him in and quietly kept him on the PS all last season.  PFN had some good things to say about him pre-draft: "

 

 

OK Fellow Bills Fans, that's all I got.  Since Beane made a reference to sometimes the guys on the roster can elevate, but they have to prove it (and referenced Terrell Bernard) I thought this might be of interest.

 

Anyone else got any tea to spill on these guys?

Edit: listened to Beane's presser again to clarify that he said "young guys on the roster who can ascend" ie, he's not talking about Mack Hollins or Curtis Samuel

 

 

You can sit and do this all day - take Beanes comments any way you like. I for one believe him 100% - Defense will be the pick this draft. When he says "young guys on roster" he is referring to the WR's you mention (good write up btw!) but he is also talking about Shakir, Kincaid and Cook without a doubt.

Add in Knox who, last time I looked, is still on the roster. Now we have some weapons! Add Samuel...pretty good looking list. Add a rookie in round 3 of the draft or round 2 and voila.

[somnus00]

This management team is too smart to give Khalil Shakir the Josh Reed treatment.

[Paup 1995MVP]

17 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

These guys are all either fast-but-small or big-but-slow.  Not encouraging.  

 

Then again, Steve Largent was neither big nor fast and still did okay in the NFL.  

 

What a reference.  Steve Largent was amazing Hondo.  As solid of a technician at receiver as I can remember.  Wow other than Jerry Rice, who was really better for that long a period?  Maybe Larry Fitzgerald?  

Isabella is really small, and didn’t seem to do much when he returned kicks.  Look at Harty last year.  He made one play(albeit a big play).  It’s not a small man’s game.  You need speed.  But you need some size otherwise you get swallowed up.  Very few Darron Sproles in the NFL. 

 

I think Shorter may have some juice.  He has size.  But can he accelerate is the question.  Hopefully he is not James Hardy. 

[Nuncha]

17 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Duke Williams

Thought it was Robert Foster??

[SoonerBillsFan]

17 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

He was most likely talking about Kincaid and Shakir. In the end, Buffalo may have three or four guys shoulder the load collectively instead of just one.
 

Buffalo may add a Pearsall or a Polk or a Worthy or Franklin. We may have a deep unit overall but no Batman, just 3-4 Robins working together to get the job done.

Our WR Corp is the Teen Titans 

[Paup 1995MVP]

4 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Curious to see which way Beane takes it: 1) overspend for one of the Big 4 who are highly likely to play X and be WR1, 2) think in terms of drafting a complementary pair for the Diggs and Davis roles. Guys like Mitchell and Leggette are wild cards who could be that WR1 but you're rolling the dice. Cap considerations dectate preservation of draft capital - filling roster holes with entry-level contracts who can contribute to a team with a top-3 QB in the league, i.e. the KC model. It's not enough to build a team just to beat the Chiefs anymore. Of course in a wonderful wonderful world Thomas slips to the 20s and the Bills make the move at a reasonable cost but I think they just can't sell the farm with their cap situation.

 

So of the likely receivers of that tier, you're looking for the guy who can do Diggs things first - sharp routes, separation, and/or insane speed. Explosive guys who threaten at three-levels. Franklin, McConkey, Worthy, Tez Walker, Pearsall (his play metrics concern me tho... Franklin's are excellent). If you're not in love with one of them, someone should be in reach from 60 for a small move-up - or certainly in the mid-30's after a small move down from 28. From there your R4 and after guys who can be the X are Rice, Baker, Polk, McCaffrey even Wilson or Coleman if they drop to the R3/R4 range. There's probably PFA guys out of this group who'd have a chance out of this class.

 

Being a degenerate mock drafter I've come around to the trade-down approach more often that not and found value to fill roster holes where if half of them hit, the Bills window stays open even this year. Difference makers come out of every round and every draft; even if Beane isn't hitting home runs he's been among the tops hitting singles and doubles, guys who can play in the league and help a team. That's what the Bills need out of their drafts now.

Excellent post Ralonzo. If we can trade back and draft two solid receivers, I am all in.  Will Legette from S Carolina be there in the 2nd round?  And do you like Roman Wilson?  I don’t follow all the individuals so much in college.  More the teams because I love gambling on college ball, and watching the games.  Except for my Maize and Blue. I know the players pretty well.  Wilson is a gamer.  Tough quick smart has real strong hands.  Not a big guy though.  
 

And let’s not forget we have Josh Allen. And he can make some of these guys look real good.  Davis and Diggs were certainly nothing special last year.  And we were a missed FG and a whole bunch of injuries on the defense from playing in the SB anyways.  And that’s pretty much because of #17. 

[Ralonzo]

5 hours ago, Logic said:

So it'll be old guys Samuel and Hollins, and then a trio of youngsters, and likely one of the two career special teams guys whose last name stars with Sh.

 

Relying on Sh-avers and Sh-orter

Will send Bills fans into a fit

They'll be there with pitchforks and torches

With both of them playing like Sh-aving Cream

Be nice and clean

Shave every day and you'll always look keen

Edited April 19 by Ralonzo

[KDIGGZ]

22 minutes ago, Nuncha said:

Thought it was Robert Foster??

All of those random receivers over the years are just a blur to me at this point!

[Ralonzo]

45 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Will Legette from S Carolina be there in the 2nd round?  And do you like Roman Wilson?

 

Leggette is a real wildcard. Brugler has a 3rd on him, but with the caveat that if a team looks at his tape and sees DK Metcalf they might use a 1.

 

Roman Wilson, I do like him, I just view him as a duplication of skills to Shakir in how you'd have to deploy him, i.e. mainly from the slot. The Bills already have the proven commodity there, that's not the hole on their WR corps.

 

There's a scenario and I think it's likely where you get 5 or more WR getting tabbed before 28, in which case you'd likely have a QB or 2 (Penix, Nix) dropping to the bottom of Round 1, and there's incentive for a team to pack a few picks to jump up for 1) their QB and 2) the 5th year option in case the QB hits. Or, maybe there's an OT run and a team has just one guy left they are interested in and wants to lock it up.

 

On the Rich Hill charts, the following teams are well positioned to offer proper value to move up to 28:

 

1) LV with #44, #77, #112 (there ain't a QB who's there at 13 who's worth it, but they're the Raiders, who knows)

2) ATL with #43, #74, #79, #109 (boy I'd love this one)

3) CAR with #33, #39, #65, #101 (if they don't believe in Bryce Young, and they shouldn't)

4) WAS with #36, #40, #67 and #78 (if they don't go QB at #2)

5) NE at #34 and #68 (if they go MHJ at #3)

 

Atlanta makes a ton of sense if they see a QB they want at 28. The Bills swapping #28, #128 and #204 is a dead-nuts-on value match for #43, #74 and #109. Add in #60 and the Bills can chalk off 4 positions from among their needs: WR, S, Edge, DT, OT.

Edited April 19 by Ralonzo

[DeepPass]

21 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I don’t even think Shorter makes the team.

I bet he does

[VW82]

Yeah I wouldn't trust any of that from Beane. None of those guys are good enough to get it done on the outside against top coverage. We need someone that isn't on the roster. 

 

Also, to whatever degree he was trying to tell us something, I do think they believe Kinkaid and Shakir will make leaps. I also think they will. Cook will hopefully improve in the passing game too. But we still need another wide out. 

[Beck Water]

8 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Relying on Sh-avers and Sh-orter

Will send Bills fans into a fit

They'll be there with pitchforks and torches

With both of them playing like Sh-aving Cream

Be nice and clean

Shave every day and you'll always look keen

 

I didn't get the tune at first now I can't Un Get It

 

EDIT:  Never say TBD is not educational, @Ralonzo.  I was THIS many days old when I learned that shaving cream is flammable!

 

 

Edited April 20 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

7 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Leggette is a real wildcard. Brugler has a 3rd on him, but with the caveat that if a team looks at his tape and sees DK Metcalf they might use a 1.

 

Roman Wilson, I do like him, I just view him as a duplication of skills to Shakir in how you'd have to deploy him, i.e. mainly from the slot. The Bills already have the proven commodity there, that's not the hole on their WR corps.

 

There's a scenario and I think it's likely where you get 5 or more WR getting tabbed before 28, in which case you'd likely have a QB or 2 (Penix, Nix) dropping to the bottom of Round 1, and there's incentive for a team to pack a few picks to jump up for 1) their QB and 2) the 5th year option in case the QB hits. Or, maybe there's an OT run and a team has just one guy left they are interested in and wants to lock it up.

 

On the Rich Hill charts, the following teams are well positioned to offer proper value to move up to 28:

 

1) LV with #44, #77, #112 (there ain't a QB who's there at 13 who's worth it, but they're the Raiders, who knows)

2) ATL with #43, #74, #79, #109 (boy I'd love this one)

3) CAR with #33, #39, #65, #101 (if they don't believe in Bryce Young, and they shouldn't)

4) WAS with #36, #40, #67 and #78 (if they don't go QB at #2)

5) NE at #34 and #68 (if they go MHJ at #3)

 

Atlanta makes a ton of sense if they see a QB they want at 28. The Bills swapping #28, #128 and #204 is a dead-nuts-on value match for #43, #74 and #109. Add in #60 and the Bills can chalk off 4 positions from among their needs: WR, S, Edge, DT, OT.

 

So the Panthers do have a new Buffalo connection since they hired Dan Morgan as Assistant GM in 2021 and just promoted him to GM....I haven't looked at the value match for swapping #28 for #33 - looks like an 80 point difference which would be like maybe their high 4th round pick with a Buffalo 5th rounder given back as change?  If there was some reason they wanted to trade back into the 1st round for that extra option year or to lock up a player they want.

[Ralonzo]

16 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

So the Panthers do have a new Buffalo connection since they hired Dan Morgan as Assistant GM in 2021 and just promoted him to GM....I haven't looked at the value match for swapping #28 for #33 - looks like an 80 point difference which would be like maybe their high 4th round pick with a Buffalo 5th rounder given back as change?  If there was some reason they wanted to trade back into the 1st round for that extra option year or to lock up a player they want.

 

For Carolina the closest match is #33 + #101 for #28 + #200 (214 points each per Rich Hill values). I think that should ensure one of Franklin/McConkey/Leggette/Worthy at least, if that's the tier they've got.

 

For a bigger gamble, #39 + #65 for #28 + #128 (Buf gives 228, gets 231). Think I'd rather do the first, if you're targeting one of the top 5 safeties with that 101 pick someone should be around in that range. That position should have a negative draft premium so guys with a 2nd round grade should be gettable in the 3rd.

 

The Bills draft slots just match so poorly to where the guys who really fit needs are projected. Doing mocks this year has been an interesting jenga.