Alphamock Draft - v1.0 for first round

[Alphadawg7]

Here is my official version 1.0 on a first round Mock.  I am going to try and find the time to make a 2 rounder at some point as well.  Since I am not there yet, I did add what I believe the Bills first pick in the 2nd round will be in the notes below since in this mock I have the Bills trading back a little bit.  

 

1. Chicago - Caleb Williams, QB, USC:  No brainer here, everything points to this being their guy.
2. Washington - Drake Maye, QB, UNC:  I have believed him to be the pick over Jayden Daniels, and I have someone I trust who has insight who tells me that which QB is still unsettled and that there are supporters for both Maye and Daniels and he thinks its going to fall Maye when its all said and done.
3. New England - Marvin Harrison, Jr:  With Washington taking Maye, I think NE opts to take what many see as the best player in this draft.
4. *TRADE* - Minnesota (via Arizona):  Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU:  Minnesota sends their 2 first round picks to AZ to move up and get their QB.
5. Chargers - Malik Nabers, WR, LSU:  Having lost their top 2 WR's, they add an elite weapon for Herbert, especially with last years first round WR not looking the part yet.
6. NY Giants - JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan:  Having a QB sitting here that can at least push or challenge Jones is too tempting to pass up for the Giants, although it was hard to pass on Odunze.  
7. Titans - Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame:  Having the best OT in this draft fall in their lap here is a gift they sprint to the podium to select.  
8. Atlanta - Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida St:  While I think Atlanta is going to get some calls for this pick, and trading down is tempting, but the chance to add the best pass rusher in the draft is too tempting and we go ahead and stick with the pick.  
9. Chicago - Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama:  While I know Odunze is a popular pick here, he is also more of a luxury pick for a team with a long term WR1 already in DJ Moore and they can find a great compliment to him to replace Keenan Allen in the next year or 2 later in this draft with how deep WR is.  Chicago instead looks to bolster their pass rush with adding Turner at 9.  With 4 QB's off the board already, the trade up interest here was lighter than expected and they decide to make their pick.
10. NY Jets - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia:  While someone like Odunze is tempting here, Jets already have a WR1 and look to add what is maybe the biggest mismatch creator of any player in this draft and without question the best TE prospect to come out in over a decade.  
11. Arizona (VIA TRADE from Vikings) - Rome Odunze, WR, Washington:  Cardinals are ecstatic to have moved back and landed extra picks and still get one of the best WR's in this draft who would quite frankly be the top WR in most drafts.  They still get their new weapon for Murray and extra draft ammo to boot.  
12. Broncos - Michael Penix Jr, QB, Washington:  With a glaring hole at QB and the largest dead cap hit in history, Broncos look to reset here and bring in Penix.
13. Raiders - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo:  Draft falls great for Raiders where they have their pick of a top OT or the first CB off the board.  With depth at OL in this draft, they opt to take top rated CB in the draft.
14. Saints - Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn St:  With big needs at OT, Saints also have the draft fall well and are able to take the 2nd best OT prospect in the draft. 
15. Colts - Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama:  Colts need a lot of secondary help both at Safety and CB.  With no safeties worthy of this early of a selection, Arnold comes off the board to help bolster their secondary.
16. Seattle - Byron Murphy, DL, Texas:  I had originally thought maybe this could be a home for Penix, but I think Denver jumps first.  Seattle needs major help on the DL and they make the move here to bolster that unit with someone who can get off the ball and shoot gaps.
17. Jaguars - Brian Thomas Jr, WR, LSU:  My heart wants to write *TRADE* here and input Buffalo Bills name, just like I wanted to above for Odunze when he got past Chicago (but can't see Jets trading him to us, nor can I see AZ passing on him at 11 the way the draft fell).  But, they need in the worst way to find out of Football Jesus is really the guy they thought he was when they drafted him.   They need a WR1 bad, and BTJ is too good to pass up here and they rebuff trade offers and get Lawerence a Ridley replacement.  
18. Bengals -  Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington:  They have to find a way to keep Burrow on his feet and healthy and are fortunate this a great OT draft early and land one of the best ones in the draft here at 18.  
19. LA Rams - Cooper DeJean, CB, Rams:  I know a lot of people assume they look at DT here, and Newton was tempting, but the Rams biggest 2 needs on defense are IMHO at CB and Edge.  I had home town Latu penciled in here, but with concern about his medicals potentially affecting his stock, I think they opt for the swiss army knife himself with Cooper, and they know a thing or two about "Coopers" in LA.  
20. Pittsburgh - Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon:  Steelers need a Center and here is there chance to add the best IOL prospect in the draft who can potentially come in and shore up that C position for years to come.  
21. Miami - Jer'Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois:  With big needs at IOL and DL, they have a lot of options here.  But when one of the best DL drop here he is too good to pass up given the guys on their roster now are nothing more than role players.  
22. Eagles - Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson:  Eagles need help in a big way at CB, and I think one way or another, Eagles will be going CB here in the draft.  
23. Arizona (VIA TRADE from Vikings):  Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA:  Having now 3 first round picks, AZ has the ammo to take the gamble on the concerns on medicals and take one of the best pass rushers in the draft.
24. Dallas - Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas:  The smart move here would be to go OL, and its what I would do if I was the GM.  However, Jerry Jones can't help himself here and falls in love with elite speed in that dome opposite Lamb and makes the surprise pick of the first round thus far.
25. Packers - Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama:  With the trade of Douglas to the Bills, GB looks to the draft to find its next CB opposite Jaire.  
26. Tampa - Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn St:  Bucs considered IOL here, but the value of IOL vs DL later is greater and make the move to bolster their pass rush now.
27. *TRADE* Chiefs (Via Arizona):  Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia:  Chiefs can't risk waiting on this guy to get any closer to them and make the move to go get him.  
28. *TRADE* Commanders (Via Buffalo):  JC Latham, OL, Alabama:  Buffalo was tempted to take a WR here, however, Beane gets an offer to move back and pick up a 3rd rounder we are lacking so Commanders can come get some help to protect their new QB Maye.  (BUFFALO sends pick 28 for picks 36 and 78)
29. Detroit - AD Mitchell, WR, Texas:  Lions benefiting from the Bills trade back land yet another weapon in what could be the most explosive offense in the NFC next year and for years to come.
30. Ravens - Ja'Lynn Polk, WR, Washington:  A guy not being talked about enough goes here to the Ravens who look to add a playmaking WR who has the best ball skills outside of his college teammate Odunze in the draft giving Lamar their guy with a big catch radius who also plays physical and may be the best run blocking WR in the draft as well.  
31. 49ers - Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon St:  Trent Williams is about to be 36 and their RT was a mixed bag last year, so they look to the future here knowing they need 2 new OT's sooner rather than later.  
32. Arizona (Via Cheifs) - Graham Barton, IOL, Duke:  Another trade down plays right into the hands of AZ where they land IOL help that can come in and compete to start and is versatile to play guard or tackle.

 

NOTES:  I have Buffalo trading back even with Adonai Mitchell on the board, not because I want them to (I think I would prefer to take Mitchell there), but because I think there is some real smoke to the Bills being very high on Troy Franklin.  This trade back here I have Buffalo landing TROY FRANKLIN, WR, OREGON at pick 36 while adding a 3rd rounder with pick 78.  And between picks 60 and now 78 I think the Bills could add potentially a Pass Rusher and a Safety (or vice versa), including being aggressive to move up from one of those spots using some of the extra ammo we have if someone they covet is there.  

 

Surprises:  I think the 3 biggest surprises of the this mock are:

1. Dallas taking Worthy over the OL help they need.  Just feels like such a Jerry Jones thing to do though.
2. Buffalo passing on Mitchell to trade back.  I think many feel if Mitchell is on the board he would be our pick.
3. Ja'Lynn Polk sneaking in first round.  I think most have him as a round 2 guy, but he fits so well the Ravens offense.  His combo of size, catch radius and blocking really complement the Ravens offense and I do think he is a great fit there.  

Edited April 17 by Alphadawg7

[The BLUES Brothers]

WOW! So detailed it was like I was reading the recap on NFL Network!

 

I respect your opinion and draft acumen for spotting talent - aware it may not happen like this - but could see it, hoping not NE's 3rd pick though lol

[GunnerBill]

I don't think Polk will go round 1. I do think Worthy will somewhere. I still have spidey senses about Miami.

 

I also still think Daniels will be #2. 

[Victory Formation]

I could live with Troy Franklin + a 3rd. 

[Alphadawg7]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I don't think Polk will go round 1. I do think Worthy will somewhere. I still have spidey senses about Miami.

 

I also still think Daniels will be #2. 

I will be honest, I didn't either, I have been of the mindset he could go anywhere in round 2 though, so it didn't feel too early with the Ravens.  But when I looked at the board for WR's with Ravens on the clock, I honestly didn't see one that I felt fits what the Ravens both do and need as well as Polk.  Beyond what he brings to the table as a Receiver for them that fills a need they are lacking, he also is maybe the best blocking WR in the draft which is an ideal fit with how they want to run the ball.  

 

Miami for me will have too many choices where they are desperate for help in the trenches on both sides of the ball.  They lost a lot on defense, and with this division and conference, I don't think they can afford a luxury pick like Worthy there.  

 

 

11 minutes ago, The BLUES Brothers said:

WOW! So detailed it was like I was reading the recap on NFL Network!

 

I respect your opinion and draft acumen for spotting talent - aware it may not happen like this - but could see it, hoping not NE's 3rd pick though lol

 

Thanks, and of course take it with a grain of salt, like any mock.  Just more something I find interesting and fun to do, but you can never put too much stock in these things.  

Edited April 17 by Alphadawg7

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I will be honest, I didn't either, I have been of the mindset he could go anywhere in round 2 though, so it didn't feel too early with the Ravens.  But when I looked at the board for WR's with Ravens on the clock, I honestly didn't see one that I felt fits what the Ravens both do and need as well as Polk.  Beyond what he brings to the table as a Receiver for them that fills a need they are lacking, he also is maybe the best blocking WR in the draft which is an ideal fit with how they want to run the ball.  

 

Miami for me will have too many choices where they are desperate for help in the trenches on both sides of the ball.  They lost a lot on defense, and with this division and conference, I don't think they can afford a luxury pick like Worthy there.  

 

 

 

Thanks, and of course take it with a grain of salt, like any mock.  Just more something I find interesting and fun to do, but you can never put too much stock in these things.  

 

I think Miami are completely committed to the idea that they will win with offense. McDaniel was basically slobbering over Worthy at the Texas pro day.

[MasterStrategist]

Nice work @Alphadawg7!

 

I'm biased, bc I'm a big fan of Worthy and the impact he could being to this offense/Brady's scheme.  Beane has moved in front of Dallas before and perhaps he will again.

 

JMO, I'm not a fan of trading back in this draft. Rather move up "modestly" in Rd1 and/or make a big jump in Rd2 (ie trade next yrs Diggs pick to say Car for their 2nd selection in Rd2, acquire their top fourth pick as well).  If the right DL is still there.

 

I agree on S being a nice add in 3rd round, if we move back.  But I could see in my trade scenario, of finding a good prospect at top of 4th.

 

Fun time of year, lots of options with the extra pick next yr now

 

 

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Nice work @Alphadawg7!

 

I'm biased, bc I'm a big fan of Worthy and the impact he could being to this offense/Brady's scheme.  Beane has moved in front of Dallas before and perhaps he will again.

 

JMO, I'm not a fan of trading back in this draft. Rather move up "modestly" in Rd1 and/or make a big jump in Rd2 (ie trade next yrs Diggs pick to say Car for their 2nd selection in Rd2, acquire their top fourth pick as well).  If the right DL is still there.

 

I agree on S being a nice add in 3rd round, if we move back.  But I could see in my trade scenario, of finding a good prospect at top of 4th.

 

Fun time of year, lots of options with the extra pick next yr now

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, I wanted to pull the trigger and have us go get BTJ, but one...I just haven't seen much actually tying us to him, and I am starting to think its more fan want than team plan.  Plus, Jags can't afford to not take him IMHO, they need to find out what Lawerence is worth and Kirk and Zay aren't going to cut it.  

 

I think I would have taken Mitchell at 28 personally, but I am really of the mindset right now that Bills are targeting Franklin.  And if they are, I do think they can safely move back with someone like Washington if the right player is there to garner the interest from Washington.  And the way this mock played out, it seemed like a very realistic move there to go get protection for their new QB and a safe spot for Bills to move back and still get one of Mitchell, Franklin, Legette, and McConkey.  I sketched out the 2nd round to the bills pick and Franklin gets there for me.  

 

Im not opposed to trading up either, I just think none of the WR's are going to get close enough to where Beane will pay to go or that the team won't choose to just take the WR themselves.  

30 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I don't think Polk will go round 1. I do think Worthy will somewhere. I still have spidey senses about Miami.

 

I also still think Daniels will be #2. 

 

To be clear, Worthy in the first wasn't what I was labeling a "surprise", it was Dallas passing up much needed help on the OL with guys who were still on the board to take Worthy instead.  

[Alphadawg7]

By the way...let me say I was not a fan of how this mock fell as I began working on it where the Jets were staring at a free choice of either Odunze or Bowers at pick 10.  Maybe they go OL instead, but those are two of my favorite players in the draft and hate the idea of either of them going to the Jets.  

 

I began working on this mock thread with no idea how it was gonna play out by the time I got to the end.  I took each team one by one and looked at needs, the board, strength of each position in the draft, their future picks, etc.  So when I got to 10 it just worked out that both Odunze and Bowers were both there.

 

F the Jets lol

 

 

Edited April 17 by Alphadawg7

[BuffaloBillyG]

Nice mock, Alpha. 

 

I'm of the mind that Denver does NOT go QB in RD 1. Feels like they may be a sneaky team for a WR after moving Juedy and Sutton being possibly on the way out. Or if the Jets choose Odunze over Bowers then they may grab Bowers.  And I believe that Penix will slip to round 2, yes even past Seattle.

 

I can totally see KC moving to the mid to late 20s for OT help. Great call. 

 

All in all, good work with solid reasoning.

[wppete]

Great work! I like the trade down and still get Troy Franklin. 

[Logic]

Thanks for the mock, Alpha.

I have been on record here as quite liking Franklin and thinking he may be the fourth or fifth best WR in this draft. I think he's underrated. In today's NFL, with rules and schemes and offensive trends being what they are, I think he has what it takes to win his routes consistently and to be -- at worst -- a high end #2 WR, but with the upside to be a #1.

If this is the route they go, I'd like to see them double dip and pair some later picks with either 60 or 78 to move up and get another receiver if one that they like starts falling. I either want one of the big three WRs, or -- failing that -- I want two WRs within the first three rounds. The Bills needed to draft a receiver early even BEFORE Diggs was traded away, and now I believe they need two. 

The rest more or less looks good to me, though I'm sticking with Jayden Daniels to the Commanders, and I'd much rather see Xavier Worthy in Dallas than Miami. A Hill/Waddle/Worthy three-receiver with Achane in the backfield would just be a nightmare to defend.

Good work. Thanks again for sharing.

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Nice mock, Alpha. 

 

I'm of the mind that Denver does NOT go QB in RD 1. Feels like they may be a sneaky team for a WR after moving Juedy and Sutton being possibly on the way out. Or if the Jets choose Odunze over Bowers then they may grab Bowers.  And I believe that Penix will slip to round 2, yes even past Seattle.

 

I can totally see KC moving to the mid to late 20s for OT help. Great call. 

 

All in all, good work with solid reasoning.

 

Yeah, Denver was one that took me a minute to work through, although I can't see them taking WR unless one of the big 3 slip there.  It was one of the picks I was the least sure what to do on to be honest, but QB's are such a higher premium I finally just leaned back that way.  

 

I think if they don't go QB that someone other than BTJ will be their BPA at that spot.  I actually considered them trading back, the only issue I was having was I couldn't find a team where I was like they would definitely move up to this spot for this guy based who was on the board.  The middle of round 1 is pretty rich with talent, not a lot of incentive to make moves IMHO for teams in that vicinity and still very expensive for guys at back end of the round to come up to.  

 

 

[Aussie Joe]

I have heard the Franklin rumours a couple of times now…

 

I’m thinking smokescreen … 

[Freddie's Dead]

Interesting draft Dawg.  But if the Bills pass on AD Mitchell, a brick might go through my TV.

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, Logic said:

Thanks for the mock, Alpha.

I have been on record here as quite liking Franklin and thinking he may be the fourth or fifth best WR in this draft. I think he's underrated. In today's NFL, with rules and schemes and offensive trends being what they are, I think he has what it takes to win his routes consistently and to be -- at worst -- a high end #2 WR, but with the upside to be a #1.

If this is the route they go, I'd like to see them double dip and pair some later picks with either 60 or 78 to move up and get another receiver if one that they like starts falling. I either want one of the big three WRs, or -- failing that -- I want two WRs within the first three rounds. The Bills needed to draft a receiver early even BEFORE Diggs was traded away, and now I believe they need two. 

The rest more or less looks good to me, though I'm sticking with Jayden Daniels to the Commanders, and I'd much rather see Xavier Worthy in Dallas than Miami. A Hill/Waddle/Worthy three-receiver with Achane in the backfield would just be a nightmare to defend.

Good work. Thanks again for sharing.

 

Thanks, and I still have a hard time seeing Miami take Worthy.  They need help in the trenches so bad, luxury pick I think does very little for them.  They are already the fastest team in the NFL, and they can't even win a playoff game or win the division with a 4 game lead late in the season.  That is because you don't have to defend the speed as much as you just have to take Tua off his early reads to disrupt that offense.  

 

So they may take Worthy if he is there like @GunnerBill thinks as well, but I think they would be stupid to ignore the glaring needs elsewhere.  I think their offense would be better helped by bolstering the OL more than adding Worthy personally.  

[FireChans]

@Alphadawg7

 

Jerry Jones hasn’t made a “cute” first round pick in many years now. Their first round pick last year was their LT in waiting while Smith got old (and was quite a foresight).

 

Zero chance they take Worthy imo. DB or OL will be their pick, or another WR. 

[Logic]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

@Alphadawg7

 

Jerry Jones hasn’t made a “cute” first round pick in many years now. Their first round pick last year was their LT in waiting while Smith got old (and was quite a foresight).

 

Zero chance they take Worthy imo. DB or OL will be their pick, or another WR. 

I dunno...

Brandin Cooks didn't turn out to be what they hoped in that offense last year, Gallup is gone, their tight ends are all pretty mid...

Who on that offense is currently scaring anyone other than CeeDee Lamb?

I think "zero chance" that they take Worthy is an overstatement. 

[Dr. Who]

It's a lot of effort. I like Polk, but that's awful high. Ravens march to their own drummer. It might be plausible for the Bills. I don't like it, because I would not pass on Mitchell, and I would take McConkey first, and Legette second, before I would take Franklin. 

[Logic]

29 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

I have heard the Franklin rumours a couple of times now…

 

I’m thinking smokescreen … 

I believe it because he fits the Bills "type" at WR.

The rumors were that they liked Addison and JSN a lot last year and did a lot of work on both guys. Now this year, we're hearing Franklin, McConkey, and Worthy. 

All of these guys are smaller, faster, quicker route technician types. Just as, to some extent, John Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, and Stefon Diggs all were.

I actually don't think it's a smokescreen at all. I think the Bills brass has more or less decided that Josh seems to do better with fast guys that run good routes than with big-bodied jump ball types.

I think Franklin is a very real possibility for the Bills come draft weekend.