Alphamock Draft - v1.0 for first round

[Solomon Grundy]

I think it would be hard for the Giants to pass on Odunze. They need a weapon on offense now that Saquon is gone. Maybe they acquire Bo Nix later in the draft to compete with Jones, based on your draft scenario. I thought they may try to double back and get Penix with a trade with Buffalo. 🤷

[BADOLBILZ]

12 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Don’t get me wrong - I want guys who get open AND make contested catches. I’d love to have Jefferson on the Bills, for instance. But those guys are rare.

 

They aren't THAT rare though........Jefferson isn't the bar.........he's just currently the very best.  

 

The way I see it,  Beane went from one extreme(big/slow) to the next(slight/nifty) with the Diggs/Beasley/Brown/Sanders types and he's just missed the sweet spot for playoff success.    I think Kincaid can be a Kelce-lite,  which might be the ideal for playoff football.  They NEED to add to that on the boundary.

 

 

Edited April 21 by BADOLBILZ

[ChevyVanMiller]

On 4/17/2024 at 6:07 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

Here is my official version 1.0 on a first round Mock.  I am going to try and find the time to make a 2 rounder at some point as well.  Since I am not there yet, I did add what I believe the Bills first pick in the 2nd round will be in the notes below since in this mock I have the Bills trading back a little bit.  

 

1. Chicago - Caleb Williams, QB, USC:  No brainer here, everything points to this being their guy.
2. Washington - Drake Maye, QB, UNC:  I have believed him to be the pick over Jayden Daniels, and I have someone I trust who has insight who tells me that which QB is still unsettled and that there are supporters for both Maye and Daniels and he thinks its going to fall Maye when its all said and done.
3. New England - Marvin Harrison, Jr:  With Washington taking Maye, I think NE opts to take what many see as the best player in this draft.
4. *TRADE* - Minnesota (via Arizona):  Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU:  Minnesota sends their 2 first round picks to AZ to move up and get their QB.
5. Chargers - Malik Nabers, WR, LSU:  Having lost their top 2 WR's, they add an elite weapon for Herbert, especially with last years first round WR not looking the part yet.
6. NY Giants - JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan:  Having a QB sitting here that can at least push or challenge Jones is too tempting to pass up for the Giants, although it was hard to pass on Odunze.  
7. Titans - Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame:  Having the best OT in this draft fall in their lap here is a gift they sprint to the podium to select.  
8. Atlanta - Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida St:  While I think Atlanta is going to get some calls for this pick, and trading down is tempting, but the chance to add the best pass rusher in the draft is too tempting and we go ahead and stick with the pick.  
9. Chicago - Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama:  While I know Odunze is a popular pick here, he is also more of a luxury pick for a team with a long term WR1 already in DJ Moore and they can find a great compliment to him to replace Keenan Allen in the next year or 2 later in this draft with how deep WR is.  Chicago instead looks to bolster their pass rush with adding Turner at 9.  With 4 QB's off the board already, the trade up interest here was lighter than expected and they decide to make their pick.
10. NY Jets - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia:  While someone like Odunze is tempting here, Jets already have a WR1 and look to add what is maybe the biggest mismatch creator of any player in this draft and without question the best TE prospect to come out in over a decade.  
11. Arizona (VIA TRADE from Vikings) - Rome Odunze, WR, Washington:  Cardinals are ecstatic to have moved back and landed extra picks and still get one of the best WR's in this draft who would quite frankly be the top WR in most drafts.  They still get their new weapon for Murray and extra draft ammo to boot.  
12. Broncos - Michael Penix Jr, QB, Washington:  With a glaring hole at QB and the largest dead cap hit in history, Broncos look to reset here and bring in Penix.
13. Raiders - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo:  Draft falls great for Raiders where they have their pick of a top OT or the first CB off the board.  With depth at OL in this draft, they opt to take top rated CB in the draft.
14. Saints - Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn St:  With big needs at OT, Saints also have the draft fall well and are able to take the 2nd best OT prospect in the draft. 
15. Colts - Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama:  Colts need a lot of secondary help both at Safety and CB.  With no safeties worthy of this early of a selection, Arnold comes off the board to help bolster their secondary.
16. Seattle - Byron Murphy, DL, Texas:  I had originally thought maybe this could be a home for Penix, but I think Denver jumps first.  Seattle needs major help on the DL and they make the move here to bolster that unit with someone who can get off the ball and shoot gaps.
17. Jaguars - Brian Thomas Jr, WR, LSU:  My heart wants to write *TRADE* here and input Buffalo Bills name, just like I wanted to above for Odunze when he got past Chicago (but can't see Jets trading him to us, nor can I see AZ passing on him at 11 the way the draft fell).  But, they need in the worst way to find out of Football Jesus is really the guy they thought he was when they drafted him.   They need a WR1 bad, and BTJ is too good to pass up here and they rebuff trade offers and get Lawerence a Ridley replacement.  
18. Bengals -  Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington:  They have to find a way to keep Burrow on his feet and healthy and are fortunate this a great OT draft early and land one of the best ones in the draft here at 18.  
19. LA Rams - Cooper DeJean, CB, Rams:  I know a lot of people assume they look at DT here, and Newton was tempting, but the Rams biggest 2 needs on defense are IMHO at CB and Edge.  I had home town Latu penciled in here, but with concern about his medicals potentially affecting his stock, I think they opt for the swiss army knife himself with Cooper, and they know a thing or two about "Coopers" in LA.  
20. Pittsburgh - Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon:  Steelers need a Center and here is there chance to add the best IOL prospect in the draft who can potentially come in and shore up that C position for years to come.  
21. Miami - Jer'Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois:  With big needs at IOL and DL, they have a lot of options here.  But when one of the best DL drop here he is too good to pass up given the guys on their roster now are nothing more than role players.  
22. Eagles - Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson:  Eagles need help in a big way at CB, and I think one way or another, Eagles will be going CB here in the draft.  
23. Arizona (VIA TRADE from Vikings):  Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA:  Having now 3 first round picks, AZ has the ammo to take the gamble on the concerns on medicals and take one of the best pass rushers in the draft.
24. Dallas - Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas:  The smart move here would be to go OL, and its what I would do if I was the GM.  However, Jerry Jones can't help himself here and falls in love with elite speed in that dome opposite Lamb and makes the surprise pick of the first round thus far.
25. Packers - Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama:  With the trade of Douglas to the Bills, GB looks to the draft to find its next CB opposite Jaire.  
26. Tampa - Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn St:  Bucs considered IOL here, but the value of IOL vs DL later is greater and make the move to bolster their pass rush now.
27. *TRADE* Chiefs (Via Arizona):  Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia:  Chiefs can't risk waiting on this guy to get any closer to them and make the move to go get him.  
28. *TRADE* Commanders (Via Buffalo):  JC Latham, OL, Alabama:  Buffalo was tempted to take a WR here, however, Beane gets an offer to move back and pick up a 3rd rounder we are lacking so Commanders can come get some help to protect their new QB Maye.  (BUFFALO sends pick 28 for picks 36 and 78)
29. Detroit - AD Mitchell, WR, Texas:  Lions benefiting from the Bills trade back land yet another weapon in what could be the most explosive offense in the NFC next year and for years to come.
30. Ravens - Ja'Lynn Polk, WR, Washington:  A guy not being talked about enough goes here to the Ravens who look to add a playmaking WR who has the best ball skills outside of his college teammate Odunze in the draft giving Lamar their guy with a big catch radius who also plays physical and may be the best run blocking WR in the draft as well.  
31. 49ers - Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon St:  Trent Williams is about to be 36 and their RT was a mixed bag last year, so they look to the future here knowing they need 2 new OT's sooner rather than later.  
32. Arizona (Via Cheifs) - Graham Barton, IOL, Duke:  Another trade down plays right into the hands of AZ where they land IOL help that can come in and compete to start and is versatile to play guard or tackle.

 

NOTES:  I have Buffalo trading back even with Adonai Mitchell on the board, not because I want them to (I think I would prefer to take Mitchell there), but because I think there is some real smoke to the Bills being very high on Troy Franklin.  This trade back here I have Buffalo landing TROY FRANKLIN, WR, OREGON at pick 36 while adding a 3rd rounder with pick 78.  And between picks 60 and now 78 I think the Bills could add potentially a Pass Rusher and a Safety (or vice versa), including being aggressive to move up from one of those spots using some of the extra ammo we have if someone they covet is there.  

 

Surprises:  I think the 3 biggest surprises of the this mock are:

1. Dallas taking Worthy over the OL help they need.  Just feels like such a Jerry Jones thing to do though.
2. Buffalo passing on Mitchell to trade back.  I think many feel if Mitchell is on the board he would be our pick.
3. Ja'Lynn Polk sneaking in first round.  I think most have him as a round 2 guy, but he fits so well the Ravens offense.  His combo of size, catch radius and blocking really complement the Ravens offense and I do think he is a great fit there.  

Troy Franklin worries me a lot as the Bills first pick. Now I don’t watch enough college football to make educated analysis of who are the best players to draft. But I do read and listen to many of the so-called experts this time of year.

 

One of my favorite guys is Joe Marino of the Locked On Bills podcast. This is what he said about Troy Franklin, “He plays small. I think he’s going to get beat up at the NFL level.”

 

Whatever wide receiver Buffalo picks in this draft I just hope it’s a guy with great upside. Franklin would be pretty far down on my list.
 

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

They aren't THAT rare though........Jefferson isn't the bar.........he's just currently the very best.  

 

The way I see it,  Beane went from one extreme(big/slow) to the next(slight/nifty) with the Diggs/Beasley/Brown/Sanders types and he's just missed the sweet spot for playoff success.    I think Kincaid can be a Kelce-lite,  which might be the ideal for playoff football.  They NEED to add to that on the boundary.

 

 

I agree and can’t see how the first WR we take isn’t a clear boundary WR, preferably also a real deep ball threat.  
 

They seem to have a lot of interest in Tez Walker.  They have had several visits and meetings with him.  From what is known, seems the guys they met with the most are Franklin, McConkey, Coleman, and Walker.  If they don’t go WR first pick, I have a feeling Tez may be in their sites at 60 as the other guys aren’t expected to be there at 60.

 

We have met with plenty of others too like Legette, Mitchell, Thomas, Wilson, etc.  Just seems the other group above is who they have had the most meetings/visits with.  
 

I still think our first pick is most likely a boundary WR though, and I do think there is some smoke to them being really high on Franklin.  
 

Personally, I want Thomas the most, and I do think it’s plausible he gets to a spot for Beane to go get him, which I’m sure we would all mostly prefer too.  
 

I’ve been doing a ton of due diligence on the draft, specifically individually on each team, their biggest needs, latest draft buzz and rumors, etc.  I’ve got some contacts with insight who have given me some insider buzz here and there as they hear as well.  And there are some things working in our favor for someone like Thomas to get close enough that we could go get him in a way that Beane prefers (keeping next years first).
 

1.  The OL and CB is a very deep and strong group in the first round with many teams who might take a WR having a bigger need there.
2.  DL is top heavy and sees a drop coming round 2 and on where teams will feel pressure to take one early lead who are looking for help there this draft.

 

No secret the draft is seen deep at WR and lots of good ones come round 2 and only maybe 4 that are must draft first round guys at WR.  So possible those other teams address other areas over Thomas allowing him to get to a range Beane could pull the trigger without giving up our first next year, in which I think he would ASSUMING they want Thomas and enough to trade up for him.  

 

 

 

 

Edited April 21 by Alphadawg7

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, ChevyVanMiller said:

Troy Franklin worries me a lot as the Bills first pick. Now I don’t watch enough college football to make educated analysis of who are the best players to draft. But I do read and listen to many of the so-called experts this time of year.

 

One of my favorite guys is Joe Marino of the Locked On Bills podcast. This is what he said about Troy Franklin, “He plays small. I think he’s going to get beat up at the NFL level.”

 

Whatever wide receiver Buffalo picks in this draft I just hope it’s a guy with great upside. Franklin would be pretty far down on my list.
 

I get it, I’ve had similar thoughts about his size with other bigger options on the board.  All my talk about Franklin is just based on things being said and how much they met with him.  
 

My preference is Thomas and I also really like McConkey, Polk, and Mitchell.  I’m not down on Franklin, I’m just worried about any smaller frame WR in the bad elements in Buffalo when the speed gets negated some and the game gets more physical.  

Im really starting to think Thomas gets to 20-22 range and if that is who Beane wants he can go get him potentially without giving up a first next year which is Beanes known preference (not giving up a future first).  I actually think it’s possible  Thomas could fall to 28 if he makes it to the 20’s, he would just need to prob get past Dallas and avoid other trade ups.  That would be the perfect scenario, although a big risk waiting it out to find out.  Which is why I have no doubt Beane won’t risk it if he is close and go get him ASSUMING Thomas is their target.

[Turbo44]

22 minutes ago, ChevyVanMiller said:

Troy Franklin worries me a lot as the Bills first pick. Now I don’t watch enough college football to make educated analysis of who are the best players to draft. But I do read and listen to many of the so-called experts this time of year.

 

One of my favorite guys is Joe Marino of the Locked On Bills podcast. This is what he said about Troy Franklin, “He plays small. I think he’s going to get beat up at the NFL level.”

 

Whatever wide receiver Buffalo picks in this draft I just hope it’s a guy with great upside. Franklin would be pretty far down on my list.
 

Franklin would be a good pick at 60, they’re not taking him at 28

 

joe Marino loves Legette, way more than most. He’s #4 on his WR list, over Thomson Jr. Too high for my liking but his character traits are great and I wouldn’t mind him at #28 or a slight trade back

10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I get it, I’ve had similar thoughts about his size with other bigger options on the board.  All my talk about Franklin is just based on things being said and how much they met with him.  
 

My preference is Thomas and I also really like McConkey, Polk, and Mitchell.  I’m not down on Franklin, I’m just worried about any smaller frame WR in the bad elements in Buffalo when the speed gets negated some and the game gets more physical.  

Im really starting to think Thomas gets to 20-22 range and if that is who Beane wants he can go get him potentially without giving up a first next year which is Beanes known preference (not giving up a future first).  I actually think it’s possible  Thomas could fall to 28 if he makes it to the 20’s, he would just need to prob get past Dallas and avoid other trade ups.  That would be the perfect scenario, although a big risk waiting it out to find out.  Which is why I have no doubt Beane won’t risk it if he is close and go get him ASSUMING Thomas is their target.

If Thomas jr falls to the late teens, Beane should be doing all he can to trade up. #28, #133 and a 2015 second should get it done??

 

I think the difference between Thomas Jr and the 3rd tier wr’s is wide.

[buffaloboyinATL]

On 4/17/2024 at 6:07 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

Here is my official version 1.0 on a first round Mock.  I am going to try and find the time to make a 2 rounder at some point as well.  Since I am not there yet, I did add what I believe the Bills first pick in the 2nd round will be in the notes below since in this mock I have the Bills trading back a little bit.  

 

1. Chicago - Caleb Williams, QB, USC:  No brainer here, everything points to this being their guy.
2. Washington - Drake Maye, QB, UNC:  I have believed him to be the pick over Jayden Daniels, and I have someone I trust who has insight who tells me that which QB is still unsettled and that there are supporters for both Maye and Daniels and he thinks its going to fall Maye when its all said and done.
3. New England - Marvin Harrison, Jr:  With Washington taking Maye, I think NE opts to take what many see as the best player in this draft.
4. *TRADE* - Minnesota (via Arizona):  Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU:  Minnesota sends their 2 first round picks to AZ to move up and get their QB.
5. Chargers - Malik Nabers, WR, LSU:  Having lost their top 2 WR's, they add an elite weapon for Herbert, especially with last years first round WR not looking the part yet.
6. NY Giants - JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan:  Having a QB sitting here that can at least push or challenge Jones is too tempting to pass up for the Giants, although it was hard to pass on Odunze.  
7. Titans - Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame:  Having the best OT in this draft fall in their lap here is a gift they sprint to the podium to select.  
8. Atlanta - Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida St:  While I think Atlanta is going to get some calls for this pick, and trading down is tempting, but the chance to add the best pass rusher in the draft is too tempting and we go ahead and stick with the pick.  
9. Chicago - Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama:  While I know Odunze is a popular pick here, he is also more of a luxury pick for a team with a long term WR1 already in DJ Moore and they can find a great compliment to him to replace Keenan Allen in the next year or 2 later in this draft with how deep WR is.  Chicago instead looks to bolster their pass rush with adding Turner at 9.  With 4 QB's off the board already, the trade up interest here was lighter than expected and they decide to make their pick.
10. NY Jets - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia:  While someone like Odunze is tempting here, Jets already have a WR1 and look to add what is maybe the biggest mismatch creator of any player in this draft and without question the best TE prospect to come out in over a decade.  
11. Arizona (VIA TRADE from Vikings) - Rome Odunze, WR, Washington:  Cardinals are ecstatic to have moved back and landed extra picks and still get one of the best WR's in this draft who would quite frankly be the top WR in most drafts.  They still get their new weapon for Murray and extra draft ammo to boot.  
12. Broncos - Michael Penix Jr, QB, Washington:  With a glaring hole at QB and the largest dead cap hit in history, Broncos look to reset here and bring in Penix.
13. Raiders - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo:  Draft falls great for Raiders where they have their pick of a top OT or the first CB off the board.  With depth at OL in this draft, they opt to take top rated CB in the draft.
14. Saints - Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn St:  With big needs at OT, Saints also have the draft fall well and are able to take the 2nd best OT prospect in the draft. 
15. Colts - Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama:  Colts need a lot of secondary help both at Safety and CB.  With no safeties worthy of this early of a selection, Arnold comes off the board to help bolster their secondary.
16. Seattle - Byron Murphy, DL, Texas:  I had originally thought maybe this could be a home for Penix, but I think Denver jumps first.  Seattle needs major help on the DL and they make the move here to bolster that unit with someone who can get off the ball and shoot gaps.
17. Jaguars - Brian Thomas Jr, WR, LSU:  My heart wants to write *TRADE* here and input Buffalo Bills name, just like I wanted to above for Odunze when he got past Chicago (but can't see Jets trading him to us, nor can I see AZ passing on him at 11 the way the draft fell).  But, they need in the worst way to find out of Football Jesus is really the guy they thought he was when they drafted him.   They need a WR1 bad, and BTJ is too good to pass up here and they rebuff trade offers and get Lawerence a Ridley replacement.  
18. Bengals -  Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington:  They have to find a way to keep Burrow on his feet and healthy and are fortunate this a great OT draft early and land one of the best ones in the draft here at 18.  
19. LA Rams - Cooper DeJean, CB, Rams:  I know a lot of people assume they look at DT here, and Newton was tempting, but the Rams biggest 2 needs on defense are IMHO at CB and Edge.  I had home town Latu penciled in here, but with concern about his medicals potentially affecting his stock, I think they opt for the swiss army knife himself with Cooper, and they know a thing or two about "Coopers" in LA.  
20. Pittsburgh - Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon:  Steelers need a Center and here is there chance to add the best IOL prospect in the draft who can potentially come in and shore up that C position for years to come.  
21. Miami - Jer'Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois:  With big needs at IOL and DL, they have a lot of options here.  But when one of the best DL drop here he is too good to pass up given the guys on their roster now are nothing more than role players.  
22. Eagles - Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson:  Eagles need help in a big way at CB, and I think one way or another, Eagles will be going CB here in the draft.  
23. Arizona (VIA TRADE from Vikings):  Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA:  Having now 3 first round picks, AZ has the ammo to take the gamble on the concerns on medicals and take one of the best pass rushers in the draft.
24. Dallas - Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas:  The smart move here would be to go OL, and its what I would do if I was the GM.  However, Jerry Jones can't help himself here and falls in love with elite speed in that dome opposite Lamb and makes the surprise pick of the first round thus far.
25. Packers - Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama:  With the trade of Douglas to the Bills, GB looks to the draft to find its next CB opposite Jaire.  
26. Tampa - Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn St:  Bucs considered IOL here, but the value of IOL vs DL later is greater and make the move to bolster their pass rush now.
27. *TRADE* Chiefs (Via Arizona):  Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia:  Chiefs can't risk waiting on this guy to get any closer to them and make the move to go get him.  
28. *TRADE* Commanders (Via Buffalo):  JC Latham, OL, Alabama:  Buffalo was tempted to take a WR here, however, Beane gets an offer to move back and pick up a 3rd rounder we are lacking so Commanders can come get some help to protect their new QB Maye.  (BUFFALO sends pick 28 for picks 36 and 78)
29. Detroit - AD Mitchell, WR, Texas:  Lions benefiting from the Bills trade back land yet another weapon in what could be the most explosive offense in the NFC next year and for years to come.
30. Ravens - Ja'Lynn Polk, WR, Washington:  A guy not being talked about enough goes here to the Ravens who look to add a playmaking WR who has the best ball skills outside of his college teammate Odunze in the draft giving Lamar their guy with a big catch radius who also plays physical and may be the best run blocking WR in the draft as well.  
31. 49ers - Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon St:  Trent Williams is about to be 36 and their RT was a mixed bag last year, so they look to the future here knowing they need 2 new OT's sooner rather than later.  
32. Arizona (Via Cheifs) - Graham Barton, IOL, Duke:  Another trade down plays right into the hands of AZ where they land IOL help that can come in and compete to start and is versatile to play guard or tackle.

 

NOTES:  I have Buffalo trading back even with Adonai Mitchell on the board, not because I want them to (I think I would prefer to take Mitchell there), but because I think there is some real smoke to the Bills being very high on Troy Franklin.  This trade back here I have Buffalo landing TROY FRANKLIN, WR, OREGON at pick 36 while adding a 3rd rounder with pick 78.  And between picks 60 and now 78 I think the Bills could add potentially a Pass Rusher and a Safety (or vice versa), including being aggressive to move up from one of those spots using some of the extra ammo we have if someone they covet is there.  

 

Surprises:  I think the 3 biggest surprises of the this mock are:

1. Dallas taking Worthy over the OL help they need.  Just feels like such a Jerry Jones thing to do though.
2. Buffalo passing on Mitchell to trade back.  I think many feel if Mitchell is on the board he would be our pick.
3. Ja'Lynn Polk sneaking in first round.  I think most have him as a round 2 guy, but he fits so well the Ravens offense.  His combo of size, catch radius and blocking really complement the Ravens offense and I do think he is a great fit there.  

Well done Alpha!  While I expect Beane to trade up, (to the teens for Brian Thomas) rather than down, your explanation is viable.  I also think your reasoning for trades and picks, are well thought out and articulated.  Kudos.

[Alphadawg7]

24 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

Well done Alpha!  While I expect Beane to trade up, (to the teens for Brian Thomas) rather than down, your explanation is viable.  I also think your reasoning for trades and picks, are well thought out and articulated.  Kudos.

 

Thanks! 

 

Version 2.0 is now live if you or anyone wants to see that, here is a link:  Alphamock v2.0 - detailed first round