Rigotz Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 (edited) I've heard a lot of Bills talking heads raving about 2nd round WR success -- Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, etc. It's a hot topic with the podcasting community as everyone seems to be laser focused at WR in round 1 or 2. So, I was curious to research the hit rate of WR in 1st round vs 2nd round the past several years. The results might surprise you. I marked "++" for plus starters each year, which I would define as a top 32 wideout. The past 2 seasons are TBD, so I started in 2021. Totals: 11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%). 6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%). 2021: 1st Round Ja'Marr Chase ++ Jaylen Waddle ++ DeVonta Smith ++ Kadarius Toney Rashod Bateman 2nd Round Elijah Moore Rondale Moore D'Wayne Eskridge Tutu Atwell Terrace Marshall Jr 2020: 1st Round Henry Ruggs Jerry Jeudy CeeDee Lamb ++ Jalen Reagor Justin Jefferson ++ Brandon Aiyuk ++ 2nd Round Tee Higgins ++ Michael Pittman ++ Laviska Shenault KJ Hamler Chase Claypool Van Jefferson Denzel Mims 2019: 1st Round Marquise Brown N'Keal Harry 2nd Round Deebo Samuel ++ AJ Brown ++ Mecole Hardman JJ Arcega-Whiteside Parris Campbell Andy Isabella DK Metcalf ++ 2018: 1st Round: DJ Moore ++ Calvin Ridley 2nd Round: Courtland Sutton Dante Pettis Christian Kirk Anthony MIller James Washintgon DJ Chark 2017: 1st Round: Corey Davis Mike Williams ++ John Ross 2nd Round: Zay Jones Curtis Samuel JuJu Smith-Schuster 2016: 1st Round: Corey Coleman Will Fuller Josh Doctson Laquon Treadwell 2nd Round: Sterling Shepard Michael Thomas +? Tyler Boyd 2015: 1st Round: Amari Cooper ++ Kevin White DeVante Parker Nelson Agholor Breshad Perriman Phillip Dorsett 2nd Round: Devin Smith Dorial Green-Beckham So ... when you hear the talking heads describing 1st and 2nd round as both being a hot bed for WR talent historically, this is just recency bias due to a few good players coming from the 2020 and 2019 first and second round. There have been been A LOT of JAGs mixed in as well... but maybe they forgot. Hope you enjoy the analysis. Edited April 10 by Rigotz 11 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 So…….it’s almost hopeless. Great! 😂 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 There are a few names on the failures list that a lot of posters here have banged the table for at the time … 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warriorspikes51 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Great post, thanks for taking the time!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rigotz Posted April 10 Author Share Posted April 10 5 minutes ago, Augie said: So…….it’s almost hopeless. Great! 😂 Not my intended point! It's a great WR class this year and perfect time to take one in Round 1 or 2. My only objection is this point I seem to hear constantly on Bills podcasts that state "there's a ton of value available in Round 2." That doesn't seem accurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoonerBillsFan Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 This is why we must hit on the RIGHT WR, not a name or what talking heads feel is a great WR. 1 minute ago, Rigotz said: Not my intended point! It's a great WR class this year and perfect time to take one in Round 1 or 2. My only objection is this point I seem to hear constantly on Bills podcasts that state "there's a ton of value available in Round 2." That doesn't seem accurate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gunsgoodtime Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 4 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: There are a few names on the failures list that a lot of posters here have banged the table for at the time … I will never actively root to trade up for a Wr again after I pounded the table for Sammy Watkins 7 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Rigotz said: Not my intended point! It's a great WR class this year and perfect time to take one in Round 1 or 2. My only objection is this point I seem to hear constantly on Bills podcasts that state "there's a ton of value available in Round 2." That doesn't seem accurate. I’m sorry, I understand. That is why each year is unique, and they say this one is rich and deep. Having said that, there will probably be just more swinging and more missing than usual. It’s definitely a crap shoot. . Edited April 10 by Augie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Just now, Gunsgoodtime said: I will never actively root to trade up for a Wr again after I pounded the table for Sammy Watkins I hear ya man … gotta take more shots .., not less 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Watkins101 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Rigotz said: I've heard a lot of Bills talking heads raving about 2nd round WR success -- Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, etc. It's a hot topic with the podcasting community as everyone seems to be laser focused at WR in round 1 or 2. So, I was curious to research the hit rate of WR in 1st round vs 2nd round the past several years. The results might surprise you. I marked "++" for plus starters each year, which I would define as a top 32 wideout. The past 2 seasons are TBD, so I started in 2021. Totals: 11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%). 6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%). 2021: 1st Round Ja'Marr Chase ++ Jaylen Waddle ++ DeVonta Smith ++ Kadarius Toney Rashod Bateman 2nd Round Elijah Moore Rondale Moore D'Wayne Eskridge Tutu Atwell Terrace Marshall Jr 2020: 1st Round Henry Ruggs Jerry Jeudy CeeDee Lamb ++ Jalen Reagor Justin Jefferson ++ Brandon Aiyuk ++ 2nd Round Tee Higgins ++ Michael Pittman ++ Laviska Shenault KJ Hamler Chase Claypool Van Jefferson Denzel Mims 2019: 1st Round Marquise Brown N'Keal Harry 2nd Round Deebo Samuel ++ AJ Brown ++ Mecole Hardman JJ Arcega-Whiteside Parris Campbell Andy Isabella DK Metcalf ++ 2018: 1st Round: DJ Moore ++ Calvin Ridley 2nd Round: Courtland Sutton Dante Pettis Christian Kirk Anthony MIller James Washintgon DJ Chark 2017: 1st Round: Corey Davis Mike Williams ++ John Ross 2nd Round: Zay Jones Curtis Samuel JuJu Smith-Schuster 2016: 1st Round: Corey Coleman Will Fuller Josh Doctson Laquon Treadwell 2nd Round: Sterling Shepard Michael Thomas +? Tyler Boyd 2015: 1st Round: Amari Cooper ++ Kevin White DeVante Parker Nelson Agholor Breshad Perriman Phillip Dorsett 2nd Round: Devin Smith Dorial Green-Beckham So ... when you hear the talking heads describing 1st and 2nd round as both being a hot bed for WR talent historically, this is just recency bias due to a few good players coming from the 2020 and 2019 first and second round. There have been been A LOT of JAGs mixed in as well... but maybe they forgot. Hope you enjoy the analysis. Your grading seems a little arbitrary to me. For example, Mike Williams has ++ despite Juju Smirth Schuster having more catches and touchdowns in the same career length. Cortland Sutton is also on pace to pass Mike Williams. Michael Thomas only a +? Despite being a top 3 receiver the first 4 years of his career. Edited April 10 by Watkins101 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warriorspikes51 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 (edited) So my take away from this thread is: we trade up for BTJ & trade our 2025 1st to get back into the round for ________ (insert favorite choice) 😎😂 Please God, let us have Nabers AND BTJ?! 🤯Allen A-BOMB offense. 28 & Spencer Brown to LV for 13 13, 128, 2025 2nd, 3rd to LAC/NYG 6/7 60, 2025 1st, 2nd, 5th to SEA for 16 😈 Edited April 10 by Warriorspikes51 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 (edited) I used slightly different methodology (top-20 WR and looking at whether they were top-20 for 3, 2, or 1 year) and a slightly different time window (the last 3 years) Just a little note that a top-32 WR would get a lot of posters here saying "not good enough" Conclusion: So, of 28 WR who have been top-20 for at least 1 of the past 3 years: 39% from Rd 1 (5 top-10, 1 top half, 5 bottom half) 25% from Rd 2 21% from Rd 3 4% from Rd 4 11% from Rd 5 Then, I used a different methodology using pro-football-reference wAV statistic, and looking at drafts from 2017-2023. I wasn't looking at hit rate here though, but at success vs. draft pick order. Edited April 10 by Beck Water 5 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nedboy7 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Just draft the next Diggs in the 5th. Problem solved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Pretty sure this was already covered by BeckWater, but have at it. Never enough WR threads. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Tyler Boyd and DeVante Parker aren't hits? Christian Kirk has been pretty good too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonzo1105 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Maybe I’m dumb but I didn’t read but what is the criteria for a hit vs a fail Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rigotz Posted April 11 Author Share Posted April 11 2 hours ago, Watkins101 said: Your grading seems a little arbitrary to me. For example, Mike Williams has ++ despite Juju Smirth Schuster having more catches and touchdowns in the same career length. Cortland Sutton is also on pace to pass Mike Williams. Michael Thomas only a +? Despite being a top 3 receiver the first 4 years of his career. I debated Michael Thomas being a ++ but he’s on waivers right now and generally an afterthought in Free Agency. The same can be said about JuJu… signed to a cheap deal with KC and a cheap deal with the Pats. Courtland Sutton is your best case… but again, top 32? If you think any of these guys are currently top 32 receivers, go right ahead and add another plus next to their name. I don’t think the teams who drafted them are currently taking a victory lap. 16 minutes ago, MJS said: Tyler Boyd and DeVante Parker aren't hits? Christian Kirk has been pretty good too. Top 32 WR. In other words, are their teams thrilled with the production they got with their 1st round / 2nd round pick? With each of those players, I’m not sure I’d agree that their teams are thrilled … as they weren’t (or likely won’t be) re-signed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimBob2232 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 I wonder how 6th and 7th rounders fare....I feel like its almost as good - but maybe the exceptions are blinding me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 2 hours ago, Rigotz said: I've heard a lot of Bills talking heads raving about 2nd round WR success -- Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, etc. It's a hot topic with the podcasting community as everyone seems to be laser focused at WR in round 1 or 2. So, I was curious to research the hit rate of WR in 1st round vs 2nd round the past several years. The results might surprise you. I marked "++" for plus starters each year, which I would define as a top 32 wideout. The past 2 seasons are TBD, so I started in 2021. Totals: 11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%). 6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%). 2021: 1st Round Ja'Marr Chase ++ Jaylen Waddle ++ DeVonta Smith ++ Kadarius Toney Rashod Bateman 2nd Round Elijah Moore Rondale Moore D'Wayne Eskridge Tutu Atwell Terrace Marshall Jr 2020: 1st Round Henry Ruggs Jerry Jeudy CeeDee Lamb ++ Jalen Reagor Justin Jefferson ++ Brandon Aiyuk ++ 2nd Round Tee Higgins ++ Michael Pittman ++ Laviska Shenault KJ Hamler Chase Claypool Van Jefferson Denzel Mims 2019: 1st Round Marquise Brown N'Keal Harry 2nd Round Deebo Samuel ++ AJ Brown ++ Mecole Hardman JJ Arcega-Whiteside Parris Campbell Andy Isabella DK Metcalf ++ 2018: 1st Round: DJ Moore ++ Calvin Ridley 2nd Round: Courtland Sutton Dante Pettis Christian Kirk Anthony MIller James Washintgon DJ Chark 2017: 1st Round: Corey Davis Mike Williams ++ John Ross 2nd Round: Zay Jones Curtis Samuel JuJu Smith-Schuster 2016: 1st Round: Corey Coleman Will Fuller Josh Doctson Laquon Treadwell 2nd Round: Sterling Shepard Michael Thomas +? Tyler Boyd 2015: 1st Round: Amari Cooper ++ Kevin White DeVante Parker Nelson Agholor Breshad Perriman Phillip Dorsett 2nd Round: Devin Smith Dorial Green-Beckham So ... when you hear the talking heads describing 1st and 2nd round as both being a hot bed for WR talent historically, this is just recency bias due to a few good players coming from the 2020 and 2019 first and second round. There have been been A LOT of JAGs mixed in as well... but maybe they forgot. Hope you enjoy the analysis. Can you do the same for WR in rounds 3-5 since 2015? Bc offhand there are some serious studs (a few being top 10 WR in the entire NFL) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 8 minutes ago, Rigotz said: Top 32 WR. In other words, are their teams thrilled with the production they got with their 1st round / 2nd round pick? With each of those players, I’m not sure I’d agree that their teams are thrilled … as they weren’t (or likely won’t be) re-signed. Ok, so what did you look at to determine what a top 32 WR is? Yards and TD's? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.