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1st vs 2nd Round WR Hit Rate


Rigotz

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I've heard a lot of Bills talking heads raving about 2nd round WR success -- Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, etc.

 

It's a hot topic with the podcasting community as everyone seems to be laser focused at WR in round 1 or 2.

 

So, I was curious to research the hit rate of WR in 1st round vs 2nd round the past several years. The results might surprise you.

 

I marked "++" for plus starters each year, which I would define as a top 32 wideout. The past 2 seasons are TBD, so I started in 2021.

 

Totals:

11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%).

6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%).

 

2021:

1st Round

Ja'Marr Chase ++

Jaylen Waddle ++

DeVonta Smith ++

Kadarius Toney

Rashod Bateman

 

2nd Round

Elijah Moore

Rondale Moore

D'Wayne Eskridge

Tutu Atwell

Terrace Marshall Jr

 

2020:

1st Round

Henry Ruggs

Jerry Jeudy

CeeDee Lamb ++

Jalen Reagor

Justin Jefferson ++

Brandon Aiyuk ++

2nd Round

Tee Higgins ++

Michael Pittman ++

Laviska Shenault

KJ Hamler

Chase Claypool

Van Jefferson

Denzel Mims

 

2019:

1st Round

Marquise Brown

N'Keal Harry

2nd Round

Deebo Samuel ++

AJ Brown ++

Mecole Hardman

JJ Arcega-Whiteside

Parris Campbell

Andy Isabella

DK Metcalf ++

 

2018:

1st Round:

DJ Moore ++

Calvin Ridley

2nd Round:

Courtland Sutton

Dante Pettis

Christian Kirk

Anthony MIller

James Washintgon

DJ Chark

 

2017:

1st Round:

Corey Davis

Mike Williams ++

John Ross

2nd Round:

Zay Jones

Curtis Samuel

JuJu Smith-Schuster

 

2016:

1st Round:

Corey Coleman

Will Fuller

Josh Doctson

Laquon Treadwell

2nd Round:

Sterling Shepard

Michael Thomas +?

Tyler Boyd

 

2015:

1st Round:

Amari Cooper ++

Kevin White

DeVante Parker

Nelson Agholor

Breshad Perriman

Phillip Dorsett

2nd Round:

Devin Smith

Dorial Green-Beckham

 

So ... when you hear the talking heads describing 1st and 2nd round as both being a hot bed for WR talent historically, this is just recency bias due to a few good players coming from the 2020 and 2019 first and second round. There have been been A LOT of JAGs mixed in as well... but maybe they forgot. Hope you enjoy the analysis.

Edited by Rigotz
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5 minutes ago, Augie said:

So…….it’s almost hopeless.  Great!  😂 

 

Not my intended point!

 

It's a great WR class this year and perfect time to take one in Round 1 or 2.

 

My only objection is this point I seem to hear constantly on Bills podcasts that state "there's a ton of value available in Round 2." That doesn't seem accurate.

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This is why we must hit on the RIGHT WR, not a name or what talking heads feel is a great WR.

 

 

1 minute ago, Rigotz said:

 

Not my intended point!

 

It's a great WR class this year and perfect time to take one in Round 1 or 2.

 

My only objection is this point I seem to hear constantly on Bills podcasts that state "there's a ton of value available in Round 2." That doesn't seem accurate.

tfw GIF

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4 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

There are a few names on the failures list that a lot of posters here have banged the table for at the time …

I will never actively root to trade up for a Wr again after I pounded the table for Sammy Watkins

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13 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

 

Not my intended point!

 

It's a great WR class this year and perfect time to take one in Round 1 or 2.

 

My only objection is this point I seem to hear constantly on Bills podcasts that state "there's a ton of value available in Round 2." That doesn't seem accurate.

 

I’m sorry, I understand. That is why each year is unique, and they say this one is rich and deep. Having said that, there will probably be just more swinging and more missing than usual. It’s definitely a crap shoot. 

 

.

Edited by Augie
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20 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

I've heard a lot of Bills talking heads raving about 2nd round WR success -- Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, etc.

 

It's a hot topic with the podcasting community as everyone seems to be laser focused at WR in round 1 or 2.

 

So, I was curious to research the hit rate of WR in 1st round vs 2nd round the past several years. The results might surprise you.

 

I marked "++" for plus starters each year, which I would define as a top 32 wideout. The past 2 seasons are TBD, so I started in 2021.

 

Totals:

11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%).

6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%).

 

2021:

1st Round

Ja'Marr Chase ++

Jaylen Waddle ++

DeVonta Smith ++

Kadarius Toney

Rashod Bateman

 

2nd Round

Elijah Moore

Rondale Moore

D'Wayne Eskridge

Tutu Atwell

Terrace Marshall Jr

 

2020:

1st Round

Henry Ruggs

Jerry Jeudy

CeeDee Lamb ++

Jalen Reagor

Justin Jefferson ++

Brandon Aiyuk ++

2nd Round

Tee Higgins ++

Michael Pittman ++

Laviska Shenault

KJ Hamler

Chase Claypool

Van Jefferson

Denzel Mims

 

2019:

1st Round

Marquise Brown

N'Keal Harry

2nd Round

Deebo Samuel ++

AJ Brown ++

Mecole Hardman

JJ Arcega-Whiteside

Parris Campbell

Andy Isabella

DK Metcalf ++

 

2018:

1st Round:

DJ Moore ++

Calvin Ridley

2nd Round:

Courtland Sutton

Dante Pettis

Christian Kirk

Anthony MIller

James Washintgon

DJ Chark

 

2017:

1st Round:

Corey Davis

Mike Williams ++

John Ross

2nd Round:

Zay Jones

Curtis Samuel

JuJu Smith-Schuster

 

2016:

1st Round:

Corey Coleman

Will Fuller

Josh Doctson

Laquon Treadwell

2nd Round:

Sterling Shepard

Michael Thomas +?

Tyler Boyd

 

2015:

1st Round:

Amari Cooper ++

Kevin White

DeVante Parker

Nelson Agholor

Breshad Perriman

Phillip Dorsett

2nd Round:

Devin Smith

Dorial Green-Beckham

 

So ... when you hear the talking heads describing 1st and 2nd round as both being a hot bed for WR talent historically, this is just recency bias due to a few good players coming from the 2020 and 2019 first and second round. There have been been A LOT of JAGs mixed in as well... but maybe they forgot. Hope you enjoy the analysis.

Your grading seems a little arbitrary to me. For example, Mike Williams has ++ despite Juju Smirth Schuster having more catches and touchdowns in the same career length. Cortland Sutton is also on pace to pass Mike Williams.  Michael Thomas only a +? Despite being a top 3 receiver the first 4 years of his career. 

Edited by Watkins101
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So my take away from this thread is:

 

we trade up for BTJ 

 

& trade our 2025 1st to get back into the round for ________ (insert favorite choice)

 

😎😂
 

 

Please God,

 

let us have Nabers AND BTJ?!  

 

🤯Allen A-BOMB offense.  
 

28 & Spencer Brown to LV for 13

 

13, 128, 2025 2nd, 3rd to LAC/NYG 6/7

 

60, 2025 1st, 2nd, 5th to SEA  for 16

 

😈

 

 

 

Edited by Warriorspikes51
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I used slightly different methodology (top-20 WR and looking at whether they were top-20 for 3, 2, or 1 year) and a slightly different time window (the last 3 years)
 

Just a little note that a top-32 WR would get a lot of posters here saying "not good enough"

 

Conclusion:

So, of 28 WR who have been top-20 for at least 1 of the past 3 years:

39% from Rd 1 (5 top-10, 1 top half, 5 bottom half)

25% from Rd 2

21% from Rd 3

4% from Rd 4

11% from Rd 5

Then, I used a different methodology using pro-football-reference wAV statistic, and looking at drafts from 2017-2023.

I wasn't looking at hit rate here though, but at success vs. draft pick order.

 

 

Edited by Beck Water
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2 hours ago, Watkins101 said:

Your grading seems a little arbitrary to me. For example, Mike Williams has ++ despite Juju Smirth Schuster having more catches and touchdowns in the same career length. Cortland Sutton is also on pace to pass Mike Williams.  Michael Thomas only a +? Despite being a top 3 receiver the first 4 years of his career. 


I debated Michael Thomas being a ++ but he’s on waivers right now and generally an afterthought in Free Agency. The same can be said about JuJu… signed to a cheap deal with KC and a cheap deal with the Pats. Courtland Sutton is your best case… but again, top 32?

 

If you think any of these guys are currently top 32 receivers, go right ahead and add another plus next to their name. I don’t think the teams who drafted them are currently taking a victory lap.

16 minutes ago, MJS said:

Tyler Boyd and DeVante Parker aren't hits? Christian Kirk has been pretty good too.


Top 32 WR. In other words, are their teams thrilled with the production they got with their 1st round / 2nd round pick? With each of those players, I’m not sure I’d agree that their teams are thrilled … as they weren’t (or likely won’t be) re-signed.

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2 hours ago, Rigotz said:

I've heard a lot of Bills talking heads raving about 2nd round WR success -- Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, etc.

 

It's a hot topic with the podcasting community as everyone seems to be laser focused at WR in round 1 or 2.

 

So, I was curious to research the hit rate of WR in 1st round vs 2nd round the past several years. The results might surprise you.

 

I marked "++" for plus starters each year, which I would define as a top 32 wideout. The past 2 seasons are TBD, so I started in 2021.

 

Totals:

11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%).

6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%).

 

2021:

1st Round

Ja'Marr Chase ++

Jaylen Waddle ++

DeVonta Smith ++

Kadarius Toney

Rashod Bateman

 

2nd Round

Elijah Moore

Rondale Moore

D'Wayne Eskridge

Tutu Atwell

Terrace Marshall Jr

 

2020:

1st Round

Henry Ruggs

Jerry Jeudy

CeeDee Lamb ++

Jalen Reagor

Justin Jefferson ++

Brandon Aiyuk ++

2nd Round

Tee Higgins ++

Michael Pittman ++

Laviska Shenault

KJ Hamler

Chase Claypool

Van Jefferson

Denzel Mims

 

2019:

1st Round

Marquise Brown

N'Keal Harry

2nd Round

Deebo Samuel ++

AJ Brown ++

Mecole Hardman

JJ Arcega-Whiteside

Parris Campbell

Andy Isabella

DK Metcalf ++

 

2018:

1st Round:

DJ Moore ++

Calvin Ridley

2nd Round:

Courtland Sutton

Dante Pettis

Christian Kirk

Anthony MIller

James Washintgon

DJ Chark

 

2017:

1st Round:

Corey Davis

Mike Williams ++

John Ross

2nd Round:

Zay Jones

Curtis Samuel

JuJu Smith-Schuster

 

2016:

1st Round:

Corey Coleman

Will Fuller

Josh Doctson

Laquon Treadwell

2nd Round:

Sterling Shepard

Michael Thomas +?

Tyler Boyd

 

2015:

1st Round:

Amari Cooper ++

Kevin White

DeVante Parker

Nelson Agholor

Breshad Perriman

Phillip Dorsett

2nd Round:

Devin Smith

Dorial Green-Beckham

 

So ... when you hear the talking heads describing 1st and 2nd round as both being a hot bed for WR talent historically, this is just recency bias due to a few good players coming from the 2020 and 2019 first and second round. There have been been A LOT of JAGs mixed in as well... but maybe they forgot. Hope you enjoy the analysis.


Can you do the same for WR in rounds 3-5 since 2015? Bc offhand there are some serious studs (a few being top 10 WR in the entire NFL)

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8 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

 

Top 32 WR. In other words, are their teams thrilled with the production they got with their 1st round / 2nd round pick? With each of those players, I’m not sure I’d agree that their teams are thrilled … as they weren’t (or likely won’t be) re-signed.

Ok, so what did you look at to determine what a top 32 WR is? Yards and TD's?

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