NeverOutNick's First round QB rankings

[NeverOutNick]

I absolutely love this QB and WR class! It's such a unique and deep year at both positions for potential franchise changers. Not to toot my own horn but I've been more right than wrong on QBs and WRs since doing my scouting. The only 2 QBs I loved in 2018 were Baker and Allen (sorry Lamar I was happily wrong). Baker had some of the best ball placement I've ever seen from a college QB. He led his WRs the same way Stroud did and unlike Stroud in College he did well going through his progressions so even though he was cocky his floor was always high. Allen was a unicorn with his Big Ben frame and howitzer for an arm, he had 0 reliable weapons at Wyoming but you could see the potential oozing and thank God it worked out better than we could have imagined. I loved Russell Wilson coming out and thought wow the Bills brought him in for a visit so we may finally have our guy, but then we didn't take him after 3 rounds and although he is what he is now, he's had a great career. Now on to this year...

 

There are 2 glaring things I want to point out about this year's QB class. First off, there are 5 first round QB prospects that all have potential to be franchise QBs in this league. Secondly, there is NO ONE in this class that is a sure-fire homerun/can't miss prospect like Joe Burrow was a couple years ago. Not one of these guys has Burrow's accuracy and precision with leading WRs or even his ability process information so quickly to make the right decision. Maybe one day they will get there and it's still the best class I've seen in a while, but expectation need to be tempered because I couldn't see one of these guys going to the 2020 Bengals and making them an instant playoff team like Burrow did. Most of the QBs will need the right situation to fully develop into the franchise QB they can be. I did not go into detail with QBs like JJ McCarthy, who I don't believe is a first round QB (I've watched Michigan too much the past couple years and he's way too inconsistent for me to risk taking early) or any of the other lower ranked guys because I don't see enough promise in any of them to be franchise guys in the NFL. Without further ado here's the rankings and explanations of my 5 first round graded QBs:

 

1. Drake Maye – When I watch Maye this year it reminds me of Herberts final year at Oregon. Both of them had incredible penultimate campaigns that if they could’ve/would’ve come out you’d have a hard time not making them the #1 overall pick BUT their final college years opened a lot of questions about decision making. Maye threw a lot of balls this year that killed drives and made me think what the heck are you doing dude but when he was dialed in there was no one better in this class. Maye has everything you need and want in an NFL franchise QB. He’s huge with no limitations on his arm manipulating defenses with arm angles and strength even with bad footing. He can use his legs in key moments and is willing to carry his team on his back. His physical tools are unmatched and his ability to go through progressions are good for a college QB but his timeliness and anticipation on throws are make him stand out to me. He’s got traits of the elite guys playing today to where he can make something out of nothing and if he gets someone like Brian Daboll to refine his inconsistencies, Maye's ceiling is a top 5 QB in the NFL. He has that ability to process new information and get better and you see it in the middle of a game when he recognizes a defensive alignment he's seen earlier and makes the right adjustment. He seems like a smart dude, and it would suck if he went to a team with no offensive direction to be in the same undeveloping purgatory that Herbert had been in the last few years. One thing that can't be measured from our couches is scouting is a player's work ethic. You can see his heart and confidence on the field and after the game but work ethic is a huge part of a QBs success and an element we won't be able to know because we're not paid scouts talking to his coaches and teammates. I hope all of these guys have a great work ethic because it could be a special QB class. For a guy sitting on his couch evaluating college QBs the last 25 years, I believe Maye is worth the risk as the #1 QB in this class. I think the elements that he is lacking are very coachable unlike some of the other prospects below. 

 

2. Caleb Williams – He throws with very polished touch, which is hard to teach, and you know the WRs appreciate it. Great athlete who runs so smooth. He is fun to watch, and whichever team gets him will have huge ticket sale increases because he’s an instant star. He’s got Allen and Mahomes type ability to avoid the sack and throws well on the run keeping his eyes downfield. But that leads me to my biggest negative with Caleb. Matt Miller said it best, “He leans into the spectacular, he won’t take the layups”. He plays hero-ball all the time even when there is a clean pocket, and he doesn’t need to do that. In college this worked a lot but, in the NFL, if he doesn’t learn to take what he’s given early and often he will have a short career. It may be unfair, but I wonder if he relies on his unmatched athleticism to make up for his deficiencies at reading coverages both pre snap and early on during the play. He will instantly make any team better the second they draft him, but my unpopular take is he may not live up to the enormous hype that has been put on him. If Caleb wants to transform into a franchise QB that could potentially be a top 5 QB in this league, he needs to go to the right team with the right offensive minds in place to help him play with more anticipation. He really needs to learn the intricacies of being an NFL QB because right now it's a lot of video game highlights and not a lot of smart decision-making that gets a team deep in the playoffs. He has the Mahomes and Allen ceiling, and thankfully for them they had Reid and Daboll to get them to where they are today. If he doesn't land in the right situation Caleb has the low floor of a Jonny Manziel (I don’t believe he’ll ever be this bad) who just doesn’t get it at the NFL level.

 

3. Bo Nix – I love Bo Nix. He’s my dude and to be totally honest if I were a GM and was a QB away from being a contender, I'd take Nix over Caleb. I almost ranked Nix over Caleb because I know and love what I'm getting with Nix, but Caleb has that unicorn potential so I'm hoping I have the right people in place to get the most out of him. Bo is a seasoned veteran coming in as a rookie. He’s so consistent and smart with the football. Unlike Penix, if Bo’s first couple progressions aren’t there, and the pocket breaks down he has the mobility to make something happen and has really good accuracy on the run. Bo is a very good athlete and man can he run. He’s not silky smooth running like Caleb or have the video game moves of Jayden but I still bet he runs under a 4.6 at the combine. He doesn't have the same arm strength as Maye, Penix or Williams but he can make every NFL throw that is needed. His progressions and rollouts remind me of Burrow. He’s not Joe Burrow but he’s the closest thing in this draft to him. Burrow was so refined and no moment was too big for him and his accuracy was unmatched. With Nix it's not as sexy to watch but he has that same "it" factor and his play in big moments is Joe Burrow lite, for lack of a better description. Nix is a winner, he's gritty and whatever fan base gets him, they will instantly love him. I believe my top 3 QBs are the guys worth taking in the top 5. The next 2 are first round talents but have limitations that these 3 don't.

 

4. Michael Penix Jr – This dude is Tua with a better arm. Guy has a great arm and throws the prettiest ball in this draft. Penix has a great attitude, personality and never give up persona that teammates and fans are going to gravitate to. Love a lot about Penix and the only reasons he’s not ranked higher is because he is the least mobile of the top guys and NEEDS a clean pocket to succeed. He's the closest thing in this draft to Mayfield and Stroud's ability to lead receivers open with his throws, but he's not that good. I love his composure in the pocket. He will stay in the pocket until the last second to make the right throw and he makes it more often than not. He trusts his WRs to make plays. If he has an all-pro offensive line, the dude is going to thrive and could be the best QB in this class. If his first couple reads are open, he’s unbelievable but has trouble when he has to progress further than that and isn’t great going off script or extending plays, probably because of his limited mobility. I can see him being a very successful top QB in this league if he goes to the right team like Minnesota with the offensive coach, great weapons and a really good O line. I’m not as concerned about his age or injury history because of what kind of QB he is, and his style of play should last for 10+ years. He doesn’t have a low floor or a high ceiling but we’ve seen less mobile guys have incredible careers a la Peyton Manning.

 

5. Jayden Daniels – Great college QB and will probably go down as one of the 10 best college QBs of all time. Uses his legs better than any QB in this class. If he goes to a team that knows how to use his strengths, he is going to be a nightmare to scheme against. He is not in the same class of an athlete as Lamar was coming out (no one is) but I’d say he’s a better athlete than Kyler Murray and a better thrower than Lamar was coming out. He can throw the deep ball well, but he’s not great at going through his progressions. He doesn’t have good accuracy with short and intermediate throws. I believe he would take the most time to develop out of the 5 QBs listed but you can still win with him now. If you're drafting Daniels, you'd have to know that when he’s your franchise QB you’re building around what he can do best which is throw the deep ball and make plays with his legs because everything else is not NFL level at this point. I would not draft Jayden in the top 10 but if my head coach wanted him and convinced me we had great offensive minds that could develop Jayden than I could see a path similar to Lamar Jackson, in which he will be successful. 

 

I'll finish my deep dive into the WR class later this month...

Edited February 14 by NeverOutNick

[CSBill]

Good stuff. When I read the thread title, I figured it was something about Nick Wright--with the Chiefs winning, I've been trying to avoid him for about six months now.

 

I appreciate your work on this, @NeverOutNick. I'm most curious about your WR work; that is where I feel the Bills need to look.

[FireChans]

4 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:

I absolutely love this QB and WR class! It's such a unique and deep year at both positions for potential franchise changers. Not to toot my own horn but I've been more right than wrong on QBs and WRs since doing my scouting. The only 2 QBs I loved in 2018 were Baker and Allen (sorry Lamar I was happily wrong). Baker had some of the best ball placement I've ever seen from a college QB. He led his WRs the same way Stroud did and unlike Stroud in College he did well going through his progressions so even though he was cocky his floor was always high. Allen was a unicorn with his Big Ben frame and howitzer for an arm, he had 0 reliable weapons at Wyoming but you could see the potential oozing and thank God it worked out better than we could have imagined. I loved Russell Wilson coming out and thought wow the Bills brought him in for a visit so we may finally have our guy, but then we didn't take him after 3 rounds and although he is what he is now, he's had a great career. Now on to this year...

 

There are 2 glaring things I want to point out about this year's QB class. First off, there are 5 first round QB prospects that all have potential to be franchise QBs in this league. Secondly, there is NO ONE in this class that is a sure-fire homerun/can't miss prospect like Joe Burrow was a couple years ago. Not one of these guys has Burrow's accuracy and precision with leading WRs or even his ability process information so quickly to make the right decision. Maybe one day they will get there and it's still the best class I've seen in a while, but expectation need to be tempered because I couldn't see one of these guys going to the 2020 Bengals and making them an instant playoff team like Burrow did. Most of the QBs will need the right situation to fully develop into the franchise QB they can be. I did not go into detail with QBs like JJ McCarthy, who I don't believe is a first round QB (I've watched Michigan too much the past couple years and he's way too inconsistent for me to risk taking early) or any of the other lower ranked guys because I don't see enough promise in any of them to be franchise guys in the NFL. Without further ado here's the rankings and explanations of my 5 first round graded QBs:

 

1. Drake Maye – When I watch Maye this year it reminds me of Herberts final year at Oregon. Both of them had incredible penultimate campaigns that if they could’ve/would’ve come out you’d have a hard time not making them the #1 overall pick BUT their final college years opened a lot of questions about decision making. Maye threw a lot of balls this year that killed drives and made me think what the heck are you doing dude but when he was dialed in there was no one better in this class. Maye has everything you need and want in an NFL franchise QB. He’s huge with no limitations on his arm manipulating defenses with arm angles and strength even with bad footing. He can use his legs in key moments and is willing to carry his team on his back. His physical tools are unmatched and his ability to go through progressions are good for a college QB but his timeliness and anticipation on throws are make him stand out to me. He’s got traits of the elite guys playing today to where he can make something out of nothing and if he gets someone like Brian Daboll to refine his inconsistencies, Maye's ceiling is a top 5 QB in the NFL. He has that ability to process new information and get better and you see it in the middle of a game when he recognizes a defensive alignment he's seen earlier and makes the right adjustment. He seems like a smart dude, and it would suck if he went to a team with no offensive direction to be in the same undeveloping purgatory that Herbert had been in the last few years. One thing that can't be measured from our couches is scouting is a player's work ethic. You can see his heart and confidence on the field and after the game but work ethic is a huge part of a QBs success and an element we won't be able to know because we're not paid scouts talking to his coaches and teammates. I hope all of these guys have a great work ethic because it could be a special QB class. For a guy sitting on his couch evaluating college QBs the last 25 years, I believe Maye is worth the risk as the #1 QB in this class. I think the elements that he is lacking are very coachable unlike some of the other prospects below. 

 

2. Caleb Williams – He throws with very polished touch, which is hard to teach, and you know the WRs appreciate it. Great athlete who runs so smooth. He is fun to watch, and whichever team gets him will have huge ticket sale increases because he’s an instant star. He’s got Allen and Mahomes type ability to avoid the sack and throws well on the run keeping his eyes downfield. But that leads me to my biggest negative with Caleb. Matt Miller said it best, “He leans into the spectacular, he won’t take the layups”. He plays hero-ball all the time even when there is a clean pocket, and he doesn’t need to do that. In college this worked a lot but, in the NFL, if he doesn’t learn to take what he’s given early and often he will have a short career. It may be unfair, but I wonder if he relies on his unmatched athleticism to make up for his deficiencies at reading coverages both pre snap and early on during the play. He will instantly make any team better the second they draft him, but my unpopular take is he may not live up to the enormous hype that has been put on him. If Caleb wants to transform into a franchise QB that could potentially be a top 5 QB in this league, he needs to go to the right team with the right offensive minds in place to help him play with more anticipation. He really needs to learn the intricacies of being an NFL QB because right now it's a lot of video game highlights and not a lot of smart decision-making that gets a team deep in the playoffs. He has the Mahomes and Allen ceiling, and thankfully for them they had Reid and Daboll to get them to where they are today. If he doesn't land in the right situation Caleb has the low floor of a Jonny Manziel (I don’t believe he’ll ever be this bad) who just doesn’t get it at the NFL level.

 

3. Bo Nix – I love Bo Nix. He’s my dude and to be totally honest if I were a GM and was a QB away from being a contender, I'd take Nix over Caleb. I almost ranked Nix over Caleb because I know and love what I'm getting with Nix, but Caleb has that unicorn potential so I'm hoping I have the right people in place to get the most out of him. Bo is a seasoned veteran coming in as a rookie. He’s so consistent and smart with the football. Unlike Penix, if Bo’s first couple progressions aren’t there, and the pocket breaks down he has the mobility to make something happen and has really good accuracy on the run. Bo is a very good athlete and man can he run. He’s not silky smooth running like Caleb or have the video game moves of Jayden but I still bet he runs under a 4.6 at the combine. He doesn't have the same arm strength as Maye, Penix or Williams but he can make every NFL throw that is needed. His progressions and rollouts remind me of Burrow. He’s not Joe Burrow but he’s the closest thing in this draft to him. Burrow was so refined and no moment was too big for him and his accuracy was unmatched. With Nix it's not as sexy to watch but he has that same "it" factor and his play in big moments is Joe Burrow lite, for lack of a better description. Nix is a winner, he's gritty and whatever fan base gets him, they will instantly love him. I believe my top 3 QBs are the guys worth taking in the top 5. The next 2 are first round talents but have limitations that these 3 don't.

 

4. Michael Penix Jr – This dude is Tua with a better arm. Guy has a great arm and throws the prettiest ball in this draft. Penix has a great attitude, personality and never give up persona that teammates and fans are going to gravitate to. Love a lot about Penix and the only reasons he’s not ranked higher is because he is the least mobile of the top guys and NEEDS a clean pocket to succeed. He's the closest thing in this draft to Mayfield and Stroud's ability to lead receivers open with his throws, but he's not that good. I love his composure in the pocket. He will stay in the pocket until the last second to make the right throw and he makes it more often than not. He trusts his WRs to make plays. If he has an all-pro offensive line, the dude is going to thrive and could be the best QB in this class. If his first couple reads are open, he’s unbelievable but has trouble when he has to progress further than that and isn’t great going off script or extending plays, probably because of his limited mobility. I can see him being a very successful top QB in this league if he goes to the right team like Minnesota with the offensive coach, great weapons and a really good O line. I’m not as concerned about his age or injury history because of what kind of QB he is, and his style of play should last for 10+ years. He doesn’t have a low floor or a high ceiling but we’ve seen less mobile guys have incredible careers a la Peyton Manning.

 

5. Jayden Daniels – Great college QB and will probably go down as one of the 10 best college QBs of all time. Uses his legs better than any QB in this class. If he goes to a team that knows how to use his strengths, he is going to be a nightmare to scheme against. He is not in the same class of an athlete as Lamar was coming out (no one is) but I’d say he’s a better athlete than Kyler Murray and a better thrower than Lamar was coming out. He can throw the deep ball well, but he’s not great at going through his progressions. He doesn’t have good accuracy with short and intermediate throws. I believe he would take the most time to develop out of the 5 QBs listed but you can still win with him now. If you're drafting Daniels, you'd have to know that when he’s your franchise QB you’re building around what he can do best which is throw the deep ball and make plays with his legs because everything else is not NFL level at this point. I would not draft Jayden in the top 10 but if my head coach wanted him and convinced me we had great offensive minds that could develop Jayden than I could see a path similar to Lamar Jackson, in which he will be successful. 

 

I'll finish my deep dive into the WR class later this month...

A sneaky move for NE in the draft is take MHJ 3 and take whoever is left of Nix, Daniels, Penix at 35, or even move back into the late first a la Ravens with LJ. 
 

Maye over Caleb is quite a take and I respect it. I hate Nix though. Has bust written all over him, imo. Reminds me a lot of Jake Locker. Maybe I’m biased from the early years of his 19 year college career but I see nothing special out of him. He’s not going to be a spectacular athlete at the next level and his arm talent is nothing special.

Edited February 14 by FireChans

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

A sneaky move for NE in the draft is take MHJ 3 and take whoever is left of Nix, Daniels, Penix at 35, or even move back into the late first a la Ravens with LJ. 
 

Maye over Caleb is quite a take and I respect it. I hate Nix though. Has bust written all over him, imo. Reminds me a lot of Jake Locker. Maybe I’m biased from the early years of his 19 year college career but I see nothing special out of him. He’s not going to be a spectacular athlete at the next level and his arm talent is nothing special.

 

Yea I am still there on Nix. I can't unsee everything I have seen. Just looking at his Oregon career I'd say he has a high floor even if not the highest ceiling. But I have seen his floor. And it freaking stinks. 

 

I dunno. I think he is scheme over substance. 

 

I haven't dug properly into the film but that's where I start with him.

Edited February 14 by GunnerBill

[NeverOutNick]

10 minutes ago, FireChans said:

A sneaky move for NE in the draft is take MHJ 3 and take whoever is left of Nix, Daniels, Penix at 35, or even move back into the late first a la Ravens with LJ. 
 

Maye over Caleb is quite a take and I respect it. I hate Nix though. Has bust written all over him, imo. Reminds me a lot of Jake Locker. Maybe I’m biased from the early years of his 19 year college career but I see nothing special out of him. He’s not going to be a spectacular athlete at the next level and his arm talent is nothing special.

 

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I am still there on Nix. I can't unsee everything I have seen. Just looking at his Oregon career I'd say he has a high floor even if not the highest ceiling. But I have seen his floor. And it freaking stinks. 

 

I dunno. I think he is scheme over substance. 

 

I haven't dug properly into the film but that's where I start with him.

I hope if he ends up with NE that both of you are right on Nix. 
 

Since his Auburn days when he was immature and chaotic, he has grown into a real NFL QB. I’m very impressed with him and am totally comfortable standing on an island with my take. He’s going to succeed 

[Low Positive]

46 minutes ago, FireChans said:

A sneaky move for NE in the draft is take MHJ 3 and take whoever is left of Nix, Daniels, Penix at 35, or even move back into the late first a la Ravens with LJ. 
 

Maye over Caleb is quite a take and I respect it. I hate Nix though. Has bust written all over him, imo. Reminds me a lot of Jake Locker. Maybe I’m biased from the early years of his 19 year college career but I see nothing special out of him. He’s not going to be a spectacular athlete at the next level and his arm talent is nothing special.

This reminds me of all the posters on TBD that wanted to take Roquon Smith at 12 and then wait for Mason Rudolph in the second to address the QB position. In retrospect, that would have been a monumentally stupid move but it would have looked savvy on draft night. 

[DCOrange]

My QB rankings shook out this way (for now, still have a bunch of projected Day 2/3 guys to scout):

1. Drake Maye
2. Caleb Williams
3. JJ McCarthy
4. Bo Nix
5. Michael Penix
6. Jayden Daniels

Maye and Williams are the only two that got a 1st round grade from me, but JJ is high enough that I think he can be justified in the first round. The other three are 3rd rounders or later IMO (I know they'll go earlier than that in reality though).

 

I think coaches like Payton and the Shanahan coaching tree will likely be pretty fond of JJ and Nix and JJ in particular wouldn't surprise me if he goes in the top 15 or so picks.

 

My first year formally grading the QBs was the 2018 class, and I skipped the 2022 and 2023 class so I have 5 classes scouted now since 2018 (49 QBs in total). In that span, Drake Maye ended up with my 6th highest grade while Caleb is 12th. JJ is 22nd and the rest of this class is in the bottom half historically.

[boyst]

I am at the point I want Caleb to light it up for all the haters. I don't know nearly enough about him to have any opinion compared to others. 

[Big Turk]

7 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:

I absolutely love this QB and WR class! It's such a unique and deep year at both positions for potential franchise changers. Not to toot my own horn but I've been more right than wrong on QBs and WRs since doing my scouting. The only 2 QBs I loved in 2018 were Baker and Allen (sorry Lamar I was happily wrong). Baker had some of the best ball placement I've ever seen from a college QB. He led his WRs the same way Stroud did and unlike Stroud in College he did well going through his progressions so even though he was cocky his floor was always high. Allen was a unicorn with his Big Ben frame and howitzer for an arm, he had 0 reliable weapons at Wyoming but you could see the potential oozing and thank God it worked out better than we could have imagined. I loved Russell Wilson coming out and thought wow the Bills brought him in for a visit so we may finally have our guy, but then we didn't take him after 3 rounds and although he is what he is now, he's had a great career. Now on to this year...

 

There are 2 glaring things I want to point out about this year's QB class. First off, there are 5 first round QB prospects that all have potential to be franchise QBs in this league. Secondly, there is NO ONE in this class that is a sure-fire homerun/can't miss prospect like Joe Burrow was a couple years ago. Not one of these guys has Burrow's accuracy and precision with leading WRs or even his ability process information so quickly to make the right decision. Maybe one day they will get there and it's still the best class I've seen in a while, but expectation need to be tempered because I couldn't see one of these guys going to the 2020 Bengals and making them an instant playoff team like Burrow did. Most of the QBs will need the right situation to fully develop into the franchise QB they can be. I did not go into detail with QBs like JJ McCarthy, who I don't believe is a first round QB (I've watched Michigan too much the past couple years and he's way too inconsistent for me to risk taking early) or any of the other lower ranked guys because I don't see enough promise in any of them to be franchise guys in the NFL. Without further ado here's the rankings and explanations of my 5 first round graded QBs:

 

1. Drake Maye – When I watch Maye this year it reminds me of Herberts final year at Oregon. Both of them had incredible penultimate campaigns that if they could’ve/would’ve come out you’d have a hard time not making them the #1 overall pick BUT their final college years opened a lot of questions about decision making. Maye threw a lot of balls this year that killed drives and made me think what the heck are you doing dude but when he was dialed in there was no one better in this class. Maye has everything you need and want in an NFL franchise QB. He’s huge with no limitations on his arm manipulating defenses with arm angles and strength even with bad footing. He can use his legs in key moments and is willing to carry his team on his back. His physical tools are unmatched and his ability to go through progressions are good for a college QB but his timeliness and anticipation on throws are make him stand out to me. He’s got traits of the elite guys playing today to where he can make something out of nothing and if he gets someone like Brian Daboll to refine his inconsistencies, Maye's ceiling is a top 5 QB in the NFL. He has that ability to process new information and get better and you see it in the middle of a game when he recognizes a defensive alignment he's seen earlier and makes the right adjustment. He seems like a smart dude, and it would suck if he went to a team with no offensive direction to be in the same undeveloping purgatory that Herbert had been in the last few years. One thing that can't be measured from our couches is scouting is a player's work ethic. You can see his heart and confidence on the field and after the game but work ethic is a huge part of a QBs success and an element we won't be able to know because we're not paid scouts talking to his coaches and teammates. I hope all of these guys have a great work ethic because it could be a special QB class. For a guy sitting on his couch evaluating college QBs the last 25 years, I believe Maye is worth the risk as the #1 QB in this class. I think the elements that he is lacking are very coachable unlike some of the other prospects below. 

 

2. Caleb Williams – He throws with very polished touch, which is hard to teach, and you know the WRs appreciate it. Great athlete who runs so smooth. He is fun to watch, and whichever team gets him will have huge ticket sale increases because he’s an instant star. He’s got Allen and Mahomes type ability to avoid the sack and throws well on the run keeping his eyes downfield. But that leads me to my biggest negative with Caleb. Matt Miller said it best, “He leans into the spectacular, he won’t take the layups”. He plays hero-ball all the time even when there is a clean pocket, and he doesn’t need to do that. In college this worked a lot but, in the NFL, if he doesn’t learn to take what he’s given early and often he will have a short career. It may be unfair, but I wonder if he relies on his unmatched athleticism to make up for his deficiencies at reading coverages both pre snap and early on during the play. He will instantly make any team better the second they draft him, but my unpopular take is he may not live up to the enormous hype that has been put on him. If Caleb wants to transform into a franchise QB that could potentially be a top 5 QB in this league, he needs to go to the right team with the right offensive minds in place to help him play with more anticipation. He really needs to learn the intricacies of being an NFL QB because right now it's a lot of video game highlights and not a lot of smart decision-making that gets a team deep in the playoffs. He has the Mahomes and Allen ceiling, and thankfully for them they had Reid and Daboll to get them to where they are today. If he doesn't land in the right situation Caleb has the low floor of a Jonny Manziel (I don’t believe he’ll ever be this bad) who just doesn’t get it at the NFL level.

 

3. Bo Nix – I love Bo Nix. He’s my dude and to be totally honest if I were a GM and was a QB away from being a contender, I'd take Nix over Caleb. I almost ranked Nix over Caleb because I know and love what I'm getting with Nix, but Caleb has that unicorn potential so I'm hoping I have the right people in place to get the most out of him. Bo is a seasoned veteran coming in as a rookie. He’s so consistent and smart with the football. Unlike Penix, if Bo’s first couple progressions aren’t there, and the pocket breaks down he has the mobility to make something happen and has really good accuracy on the run. Bo is a very good athlete and man can he run. He’s not silky smooth running like Caleb or have the video game moves of Jayden but I still bet he runs under a 4.6 at the combine. He doesn't have the same arm strength as Maye, Penix or Williams but he can make every NFL throw that is needed. His progressions and rollouts remind me of Burrow. He’s not Joe Burrow but he’s the closest thing in this draft to him. Burrow was so refined and no moment was too big for him and his accuracy was unmatched. With Nix it's not as sexy to watch but he has that same "it" factor and his play in big moments is Joe Burrow lite, for lack of a better description. Nix is a winner, he's gritty and whatever fan base gets him, they will instantly love him. I believe my top 3 QBs are the guys worth taking in the top 5. The next 2 are first round talents but have limitations that these 3 don't.

 

4. Michael Penix Jr – This dude is Tua with a better arm. Guy has a great arm and throws the prettiest ball in this draft. Penix has a great attitude, personality and never give up persona that teammates and fans are going to gravitate to. Love a lot about Penix and the only reasons he’s not ranked higher is because he is the least mobile of the top guys and NEEDS a clean pocket to succeed. He's the closest thing in this draft to Mayfield and Stroud's ability to lead receivers open with his throws, but he's not that good. I love his composure in the pocket. He will stay in the pocket until the last second to make the right throw and he makes it more often than not. He trusts his WRs to make plays. If he has an all-pro offensive line, the dude is going to thrive and could be the best QB in this class. If his first couple reads are open, he’s unbelievable but has trouble when he has to progress further than that and isn’t great going off script or extending plays, probably because of his limited mobility. I can see him being a very successful top QB in this league if he goes to the right team like Minnesota with the offensive coach, great weapons and a really good O line. I’m not as concerned about his age or injury history because of what kind of QB he is, and his style of play should last for 10+ years. He doesn’t have a low floor or a high ceiling but we’ve seen less mobile guys have incredible careers a la Peyton Manning.

 

5. Jayden Daniels – Great college QB and will probably go down as one of the 10 best college QBs of all time. Uses his legs better than any QB in this class. If he goes to a team that knows how to use his strengths, he is going to be a nightmare to scheme against. He is not in the same class of an athlete as Lamar was coming out (no one is) but I’d say he’s a better athlete than Kyler Murray and a better thrower than Lamar was coming out. He can throw the deep ball well, but he’s not great at going through his progressions. He doesn’t have good accuracy with short and intermediate throws. I believe he would take the most time to develop out of the 5 QBs listed but you can still win with him now. If you're drafting Daniels, you'd have to know that when he’s your franchise QB you’re building around what he can do best which is throw the deep ball and make plays with his legs because everything else is not NFL level at this point. I would not draft Jayden in the top 10 but if my head coach wanted him and convinced me we had great offensive minds that could develop Jayden than I could see a path similar to Lamar Jackson, in which he will be successful. 

 

I'll finish my deep dive into the WR class later this month...

 

 

I heard one analyst that said Williams does not do well throwing on the run...can't remember who it was but he said he was shocked to see how poor he was in comparison to what people were touting him to be while on the move.

[BillsFan130]

Nice post, thanks for the breakdown 

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, DCOrange said:

My QB rankings shook out this way (for now, still have a bunch of projected Day 2/3 guys to scout):

1. Drake Maye
2. Caleb Williams
3. JJ McCarthy
4. Bo Nix
5. Michael Penix
6. Jayden Daniels

Maye and Williams are the only two that got a 1st round grade from me, but JJ is high enough that I think he can be justified in the first round. The other three are 3rd rounders or later IMO (I know they'll go earlier than that in reality though).

 

I think coaches like Payton and the Shanahan coaching tree will likely be pretty fond of JJ and Nix and JJ in particular wouldn't surprise me if he goes in the top 15 or so picks.

 

My first year formally grading the QBs was the 2018 class, and I skipped the 2022 and 2023 class so I have 5 classes scouted now since 2018 (49 QBs in total). In that span, Drake Maye ended up with my 6th highest grade while Caleb is 12th. JJ is 22nd and the rest of this class is in the bottom half historically.

I have a question about JJ. Did it feel like  to you, in the biggest moments (CFB playoff, OSU game) there was a hesitancy to let him throw? 
 

I didn’t watch every Michigan game this year, and I don’t pretend to be good enough to truly analyze and rank prospects. But when I watched Michigan, I got a weird feeling like JJ was more of a passenger on the offense than the other big name QB’s. 

[Seventeen]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

A sneaky move for NE in the draft is take MHJ 3 and take whoever is left of Nix, Daniels, Penix at 35, or even move back into the late first a la Ravens with LJ. 
 

Maye over Caleb is quite a take and I respect it. I hate Nix though. Has bust written all over him, imo. Reminds me a lot of Jake Locker. Maybe I’m biased from the early years of his 19 year college career but I see nothing special out of him. He’s not going to be a spectacular athlete at the next level and his arm talent is nothing special.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bears take MHJ at #1 and keep Fields or trade down a spot with Washington with the agreement they would take Caleb at #1. 

[NeverOutNick]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I have a question about JJ. Did it feel like  to you, in the biggest moments (CFB playoff, OSU game) there was a hesitancy to let him throw? 
 

I didn’t watch every Michigan game this year, and I don’t pretend to be good enough to truly analyze and rank prospects. But when I watched Michigan, I got a weird feeling like JJ was more of a passenger on the offense than the other big name QB’s. 

You’re not wrong. He’s got all the physical tools you want in an NFL prospect but he’s too inconsistent and inaccurate to be seriously considered as a day 1 starter. Some team may reach on his potential but he wasn’t able to do it under Harbaugh so I have a hard time believing the light will suddenly click on when he gets to the NFL

[FireChans]

Just now, Seventeen said:

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bears take MHJ at #1 and keep Fields or trade down a spot with Washington with the agreement they would take Caleb at #1. 

That would drive me absolutely nuts but bad franchises gonna bad franchise.

 

Its already insane to keep Eberflus as a lame duck. 

[boyst]

7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I have a question about JJ. Did it feel like  to you, in the biggest moments (CFB playoff, OSU game) there was a hesitancy to let him throw? 
 

I didn’t watch every Michigan game this year, and I don’t pretend to be good enough to truly analyze and rank prospects. But when I watched Michigan, I got a weird feeling like JJ was more of a passenger on the offense than the other big name QB’s. 

I watched with hater vision...

But he didn't make the biggest throws and often chose safer routes. He didn't have a lot of challenging throws or hard decisions. What he has was accuracy and management of the ball/situation/game. That's not simply saying he is a game manager. 

[gonzo1105]

I liked Maye a lot early but the more I watch him the more I get Sam Darnold vibes with his tape. I'd rank him 3rd now behind Williams and Daniels.

[NoSaint]

With us having no need at the top, I get curious about the mid tier guys in this class.

Someone like Michael pratt might be a sneaky steal if he starts to slip- and with so many trendy names and only so many open jobs, he could go later than his talent suggests and actually be a reasonable grab for a backup role for a few years.

[DCOrange]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

I have a question about JJ. Did it feel like  to you, in the biggest moments (CFB playoff, OSU game) there was a hesitancy to let him throw? 
 

I didn’t watch every Michigan game this year, and I don’t pretend to be good enough to truly analyze and rank prospects. But when I watched Michigan, I got a weird feeling like JJ was more of a passenger on the offense than the other big name QB’s. 

It’s hard to say if it was hesitance to let him throw due to talent vs. having the advantage of being able to run in situations where others don’t because their run game was so dominant.

 

I will say JJ’s stats in big moments, 3rd and long, etc. were maybe the best in the entire class and he has a lot of good tape in the games he was forced to throw a lot. Also the youngest QB in the class which and an incredible record as a starter, both of which tend to be valued a lot.

 

My real big hang up with him is he showed almost literally zero ability to throw with touch. Every pass attempt was thrown like he was trying to prove how strong he is. 

[qwksilver]

Well done but I'm really looking forward to your WR write up. Cause you know we need a few WRs

 

TIA.

[Nephilim17]

I'm not a college fan and have limited interest in QB prospects given the Bills' situation, but I like your writing style and voice. Looking forward to your WR write-ups...