Shootout not required (first to 10 points wins)

[FireChans]

While everyone is talking about Mahomes vs Allen and the shootout potential of this game based on previous matchups, I went back and crunched the numbers.

 

The 2023 Bills are 11-2 when they reach double digit points before their opponent. With their two losses being the Jets meltdown which they should have won, and their Eagles shootout that was a play or two away from being a W.

 
Conversely, the Bills are 1-4 when the opposing team gets to double digits before they do, the one win being the second Dolphins game that was marred by self-inflicted wounds in the first half.

 

The 2023 Chiefs are 8-2 in games where they reach double digit points before their opponent. They are 3-4 in games they do not (not including the Chargers-Chiefs backup fest.)

 

So what does this tell us? Shootout or not, neither team has been great as the “answerer” to the fast start by an opponent.

 

I want the offense to get points every possession, obviously. But that’s not realistic. What’s realistic is come out swinging, get a fast lead, and then hold on. That’s when the Bills especially are at their best.

[RoyBatty is alive]

You crunched the numbers and this is the epiphany you came back with, get a fast lead and hold on?

[FireChans]

  On 1/18/2024 at 5:26 PM, RoyBatty is alive said:

You crunched the numbers and this is the epiphany you came back with, get a fast lead and hold on?

Expand  

Yep. This ain’t the same old Chiefs.

 

Historically, Mahomes had a pretty good winning record when down double digits. That’s no longer the case.

[TheBrownBear]

  On 1/18/2024 at 5:26 PM, RoyBatty is alive said:

You crunched the numbers and this is the epiphany you came back with, get a fast lead and hold on?

Expand  

There's no denying it.  The stats don't lie.  It's better to be winning during the game than losing.

[Royale with Cheese]

  On 1/18/2024 at 5:34 PM, TheBrownBear said:

There's no denying it.  The stats don't lie.  It's better to be winning during the game than losing.

Expand  

 

Yep.  And if it's 1st and goal from the 1, you don't punt.  You take the points.

[RobbRiddick]

I think the key to victory is winning

[Royale with Cheese]

If she is in her mid 30's, no kids and never married but wants it....don't use her condoms.

[DrDawkinstein]

I get that you are saying having the lead first helps. But what about having the lead last? How do the numbers play out on that?

[FireChans]

  On 1/18/2024 at 5:40 PM, DrDawkinstein said:

I get that you are saying having the lead first helps. But what about having the lead last? How do the numbers play out on that?

Expand  

We call that batting a thousand in these parts 

[Kincaid Kool-Aid]

[Stads]

  On 1/18/2024 at 5:36 PM, RobbRiddick said:

I think the key to victory is winning

Expand  

[Big Turk]

  On 1/18/2024 at 5:19 PM, FireChans said:

While everyone is talking about Mahomes vs Allen and the shootout potential of this game based on previous matchups, I went back and crunched the numbers.

 

The 2023 Bills are 11-2 when they reach double digit points before their opponent. With their two losses being the Jets meltdown which they should have won, and their Eagles shootout that was a play or two away from being a W.

 
Conversely, the Bills are 1-4 when the opposing team gets to double digits before they do, the one win being the second Dolphins game that was marred by self-inflicted wounds in the first half.

 

The 2023 Chiefs are 8-2 in games where they reach double digit points before their opponent. They are 3-4 in games they do not (not including the Chargers-Chiefs backup fest.)

 

So what does this tell us? Shootout or not, neither team has been great as the “answerer” to the fast start by an opponent.

 

I want the offense to get points every possession, obviously. But that’s not realistic. What’s realistic is come out swinging, get a fast lead, and then hold on. That’s when the Bills especially are at their best.

Expand  

 

That's not true. The Chargers were up 10-0 and lost to the Bills.

[FireChans]

  On 1/18/2024 at 8:04 PM, Big Turk said:

 

That's not true. The Chargers were up 10-0 and lost to the Bills.

Expand  

Excellent work, so 2-3.

[Matt_In_NH]

  On 1/18/2024 at 5:26 PM, FireChans said:

Yep. This ain’t the same old Chiefs.

 

Historically, Mahomes had a pretty good winning record when down double digits. That’s no longer the case.

Expand  

And that will hold true for the rest of eternity.

[The Jokeman]

Hold the Chiefs to less than 20, as they have a 5-8 record with Patrick Mahomes when scoring <20 points all-time.

[BillsVet]

There's lies, damn lies, and statistics.  Churchill knew what in advance that TBD'ers with too much time on their hands would get to this point...and have for years.  (Correction - not Churchill, but perhaps former British PM Benjamin Disraeli or Mark Twain...who knows?)

Edited January 18, 2024 by BillsVet

[JohnnyBuffalo]

I had a high school hockey coach that would always say heading into the third period with a lead
 

“Hey guys if we win this period we will win the game.”

He said it with such enthusiasm each and every time.    

 

The athletic director was quoted saying about him “He lacked for so MANY things it was hard to find him at fault for any results”

 

 

 

[FireChans]

  On 1/18/2024 at 8:33 PM, JohnnyBuffalo said:

I had a high school hockey coach that would always say heading into the third period with a lead
 

“Hey guys if we win this period we will win the game.”

He said it with such enthusiasm each and every time.    

 

The athletic director was quoted saying about him “He lacked for so MANY things it was hard to find him at fault for any results”

 

 

 

Expand  

Your coach sounds like a very smart man. Let’s hope McD and Brady can prove his equal.

[JohnnyBuffalo]

  On 1/18/2024 at 8:35 PM, FireChans said:

Your coach sounds like a very smart man. Let’s hope McD and Brady can prove his equal.

Expand  

Coach?    Is that you?   : )

[MRW]

The only thing I know is that one of these teams will win, and the other almost certainly will not.