The offense is better without Gabe Davis

[Logic]

21 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Nope.

 

Gabe being out yesterday changed things up (and I loved it).

They essentially used Kincaid as the #2 WR and Shakir as the slot.

 

When Gabe is in, it’s Gabe as the #2 WR and Kincaid as the slot. This limits how often Shakir can play. 

 

Therefore, Gabe being out gives Shakir more opportunity.

 

 

 

This is where I would repeat the assertion that one game is not a big enough sample size to state what you just did declaratively.

Those personnel groupings may well have been matchup specific.

I don't particularly care to go back and forth on the matter, though. You've stated your opinion. I disagree with it, or at the very least, feel that it's too early to reach a conclusion on the matter. Onward.

 

[Einstein]

2 hours ago, Mojo44 said:

what you assert to be a 40% interception read when Josh passage to him would you provide no support of evidence for. 

 

12 of Allen's 32 INT's over the last two seasons have been targeting Gabe. 12/32 = 38%. Thus "nearly 40%", which is what I said...

I took out the Hail Mary INT, because that's not fair.

 

 

Know what it is when targeting Diggs? 16%. 

So 38% of Allen's INT's happen when targeting a player that only receives 15.1% of the targets (174 targets / 1146 pass attempts).
 

And 16% of Allen's INT's happen when targeting a player that is thrown to 27.4% of the time (314 targets/1146 pass attempts).

38% of the INT's on 15% of the targets is .... a lot.
.

Edited January 16 by Einstein

[Alphadawg7]

38% of Allen’s INTs the past 2 seasons on throws to Gabe is insane.
 

Allen threw 0 this week.  
 

That alone made our offense better.  Even 1 INT could have turned this game into a close win or narrrow loss.  
 

 

Edited January 16 by Alphadawg7

[Mojo44]

11 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

12 of Allen's 32 INT's over the last two seasons have been targeting Gabe. 12/32 = 38%. Thus "nearly 40%", which is what I said...

I took out the Hail Mary INT, because that's not fair.

 

 

Know what it is when targeting Diggs? 16%. 

So 38% of Allen's INT's happen when targeting a player that only receives 15.1% of the targets (174 targets / 1146 pass attempts).
 

And 16% of Allen's INT's happen when targeting a player that is thrown to 27.4% of the time (314 targets/1146 pass attempts).

38% of the INT's on 15% of the targets is .... a lot.
.

OK. Thanks for the reference. Now let’s dig a little deeper. Let’s look at some of the variables that may go into this that may have nothing to do with Davis. In particular, we all know Josh has a tendency to try and force throws. When he does so downfield they often end up in an interception. Davis is usually that target. In other words, what you’re not considering is that these interceptions are more on Josh than on Davis. The data does not prove that Gabe is the problem. It’s just as likely, if not more so, that Josh is the problem on these throws. Do you see what I’m saying now? This is still not sufficient to back your original opinion. The null hypothesis remains in effect. But thanks again for showing me that. 
let me add this, and I’m not trying to be snarky here. But I am a scientist. I have published empirical research papers in scientifically refereed journals. It’s an area of expertise that I happen to have and occasionally comes in handy here. Your opinion is an OK one but it has way too many holes in it. It’s still an opinion not based on probative data. You seem to be taking an empirical approach to your opinions and that’s why I am responding in the way I am. This would not pass muster as far as good science is concerned. But I will not be belabor  it with you after that. Other than to say I still think the team is better when Davis is on the field because he has an element that the other receivers on the team do not have. 

[Alphadawg7]

14 minutes ago, Mojo44 said:

OK. Thanks for the reference. Now let’s dig a little deeper. Let’s look at some of the variables that may go into this that may have nothing to do with Davis. In particular, we all know Josh has a tendency to try and force throws. When he does so downfield they often end up in an interception. Davis is usually that target. In other words, what you’re not considering is that these interceptions are more on Josh than on Davis. The data does not prove that Gabe is the problem. It’s just as likely, if not more so, that Josh is the problem on these throws. Do you see what I’m saying now? This is still not sufficient to back your original opinion. The null hypothesis remains in effect. But thanks again for showing me that. 
let me add this, and I’m not trying to be snarky here. But I am a scientist. I have published empirical research papers in scientifically refereed journals. It’s an area of expertise that I happen to have and occasionally comes in handy here. Your opinion is an OK one but it has way too many holes in it. It’s still an opinion not based on probative data. You seem to be taking an empirical approach to your opinions and that’s why I am responding in the way I am. This would not pass muster as far as good science is concerned. But I will not be belabor  it with you after that. Other than to say I still think the team is better when Davis is on the field because he has an element that the other receivers on the team do not have. 

 

I think you are missing the point.  Nobody is saying its all on Davis, the argument is that Davis and Allen just are as on the same page or as dialed in and the passing offense is more efficient and less turnover prone when Davis is not in the lineup.  

 

Its not a quest for blame, its about does the passing offense function more efficiently with Davis on the field or off it?  So it doesn't matter whose fault it is, the fact remains that nearly 40% of Allens INT's are happening when he is trying to get the ball to Davis.  Then there are also all the incompletions too as Davis has a bad career catch rate. 

 

I think the data plenty supports identifying that Allen is less efficient as a passer when throwing to Davis vs the other guys on this roster.  

 

 

Edited January 16 by Alphadawg7

[KellyToTasker]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

This is where I would repeat the assertion that one game is not a big enough sample size to state what you just did declaratively.

Those personnel groupings may well have been matchup specific.

I don't particularly care to go back and forth on the matter, though. You've stated your opinion. I disagree with it, or at the very least, feel that it's too early to reach a conclusion on the matter. Onward.

 

Large part of two games. 

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, Mojo44 said:

In other words, what you’re not considering is that these interceptions are more on Josh than on Davis. 

 

Oh I'm sure some are on Josh. No doubt about it. But that goes with all the receivers he throws to. Some are on the QB and some are on the WR.

But a significantly higher percentage occur when throwing to Gabe. And much of that reason is because Gabe and Josh don't seem to "click". They are often not on the same page.

For example, remember, the Vikings OT game last year? Gabe takes his route deep into the endzone (leaving the DB shallow). Allen expected him to widen his route and body shield the defender. Instead, he cut it deep, which would have necessitated Allen throwing OVER defenders. Result? INT. 

And i'm not even necessarily blaming Gabe for deciding how to take his route. Like relationships, sometimes you just say "its nobodies fault - we just dont click". And thats where i'm at with Gave.
 

[Mojo44]

With respect you seem to be missing the point that it’s not a matter of “clicking”. Instead it’s very possibly a matter of Josh trying to get the ball to Davis when he is double covered when he should be throwing somewhere else. Personally I think this is more likely because Davis is the one receiver on the team who runs more high risk, i.e. deep routes. But you do seem to be acknowledging that your data is not really all that conclusive in terms of supporting your OP. If you would couch your opinion something like this: “It seems to me that the offense is better without Gabe” without the “data” it would be more palatable. I am 100% certain that the real Einstein would agree with me. Anyway, I will leave it at that and I really do appreciate your posts and your opinions

[Mr. WEO]

5 hours ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

How many of Davis's drops and wrong routes led DIRECTLY to turnovers? It's a lot higher number than Diggs, Kincaid and Knox.

 

his drops (3) were just drops.  6 of his targets were intercepted (one a throwaway in the EZ).  4 for Diggs.  Only 2 for Kincaid likely because of very short routes.

 

Tell me how many of Davis targets that were INTs were his error vs bad throws by Josh Allen?  You must know since you brought it up.  Allen had 18 INTs--but only the ones involving Davis were WR error?

5 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Agree that the game shouldn't have been that close. Same with the Dolphins game. Harty does add something. He has RAC ability. You seen it yesterday and he had another good RAC in a game earlier in the season. 

 

 

Harty has only 15 catches all year.  His YAC is 5.3 vs 4 for Davis.  That's one running stride difference.

[GoBills808]

4 hours ago, Mojo44 said:

OK. Thanks for the reference. Now let’s dig a little deeper. Let’s look at some of the variables that may go into this that may have nothing to do with Davis. In particular, we all know Josh has a tendency to try and force throws. When he does so downfield they often end up in an interception. Davis is usually that target. In other words, what you’re not considering is that these interceptions are more on Josh than on Davis. The data does not prove that Gabe is the problem. It’s just as likely, if not more so, that Josh is the problem on these throws. Do you see what I’m saying now? This is still not sufficient to back your original opinion. The null hypothesis remains in effect. But thanks again for showing me that. 
let me add this, and I’m not trying to be snarky here. But I am a scientist. I have published empirical research papers in scientifically refereed journals. It’s an area of expertise that I happen to have and occasionally comes in handy here. Your opinion is an OK one but it has way too many holes in it. It’s still an opinion not based on probative data. You seem to be taking an empirical approach to your opinions and that’s why I am responding in the way I am. This would not pass muster as far as good science is concerned. But I will not be belabor  it with you after that. Other than to say I still think the team is better when Davis is on the field because he has an element that the other receivers on the team do not have. 

 

maybe occams butterknife can explain how a statistically significant % of Allen's INTs and missed plays thrown at one mediocre wideout are actually the QBs fault when that QB also happens to be the best in the game

 

 

[Steptide]

23 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Even if he has a “good” game, it stinks that we lose all those snaps for other player, who are legit playmakers.

 

 

I mean, I think Josh can distribute the ball between Diggs, Gabe and Shakir. Sherfield and Harty are almost non factors. 

[Einstein]

13 minutes ago, Steptide said:

I mean, I think Josh can distribute the ball between Diggs, Gabe and Shakir. Sherfield and Harty are almost non factors. 

 

There are only so many snaps to go around. If Diggs & Davis are on the field, you have to choose between Kincaid and Shakir at slot. Are you taking Kincaid out for Shakir?

 

On Sunday the Bills pit Kincaid at #2 a lot, and let Shakir play the slot. I loved that. 

 

It let you have a field of Diggs, Cook, Kincaid, Shakir and Knox.

[balln]

Not only the high int % per target- but the drops. 
 

Gabe Davis is a BLACK HOLE for

targets. 
 

sometimes he has a big game. Keep him off the filed. Kincaid Shakir are better targets / matchups more consistently 

[Drew21PA]

On 1/15/2024 at 7:53 PM, Bills!Win! said:

My jaw dropped when Harty caught the ball downfield. I didn’t think he was allowed to do that 

My son (10) goes who is that ?

 

mannnnn he is fast!!!!

[Steptide]

8 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

There are only so many snaps to go around. If Diggs & Davis are on the field, you have to choose between Kincaid and Shakir at slot. Are you taking Kincaid out for Shakir?

 

On Sunday the Bills pit Kincaid at #2 a lot, and let Shakir play the slot. I loved that. 

 

It let you have a field of Diggs, Cook, Kincaid, Shakir and Knox.

True. I don't think Gabe will play a ton of snaps even if he plays this week. I definitely wanna see Shakir get more looks, I think the bills have desperately missed that beasley role. However, if Gabe puts up 100 yards, I'm not gonna complain about that either 

[ToGoGo]

What stood out to me more were no interceptions or bad QB/WR miscommunication plays with Gabe out. Only one bad drop by Knox. 
 

The fact that we don’t miss a step AND weren’t hurt by negative Davis plays, tells me we’re better off without him. Shakir might be the guy. 
 

 

[balln]

1 minute ago, Steptide said:

True. I don't think Gabe will play a ton of snaps even if he plays this week. I definitely wanna see Shakir get more looks, I think the bills have desperately missed that beasley role. However, if Gabe puts up 100 yards, I'm not gonna complain about that either 

It’s just a bad matchup for Gabe. THIS version of KC secondary is insane. Prob the best (maybe BaL is equal).

 

let me remind everyone that he had 0 catches for 0 yards with 2 targets during reg season.

 

forget about the 4 td game. This is an entirely better kc D. 
 

they stick to you like glue. Gabe simply can’t get open  

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 1/15/2024 at 7:54 PM, KDIGGZ said:

But I heard Gabe was a good blocker and the most valuable player even when he doesn't make a catch?

Davis is one of the best blocking WRs in the game. The one trait he’s elite at. It’s like pass blocking for a RB. Just because it’s not his main job doesn’t mean it’s not important. 

[balln]

3 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Davis is one of the best blocking WRs in the game. The one trait he’s elite at. It’s like pass blocking for a RB. Just because it’s not his main job doesn’t mean it’s not important. 

The least important thing to be a boundary NFL WR. I’m not sure he’s that ELiTE? I see him motion down in tight and misses block after block , whiffs in the box. Ok sure he can block a DB. Big deal. I need my WR2 to separate and win routes and catch the ball. That’s it. And run the right routes and not confuse the qb. 
 

 

[Since1981]

WR2 on boundary who’s present for 40% of the turnovers but can block a DB.  Why is this valuable? My mechanic can’t fix my engine but he’s excellent at putting air in my tires.