Perry Turtle Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 23 minutes ago, Maine-iac said: What in god's name are you talking about? It isn't a what if scenario if it actually happened. The Viking's game we turned the ball over and lost. The NE playoff game we didn't turn the ball over and we killed them. There's no "what if" scenario. Bronco's game, Jet's game, even the Eagles we turned the ball over and gave up easy scores and lost. You can argue the weight of the turnovers but you can't argue the fact that we turned the ball over and we lost. Like someone else said show me a game with no turnovers and I'll show you a win 94 percent of the time. Pretty simple. The Bills turned the ball over on the goalline. The Vikings scored. The Bills lost. That turnover was a key factor in the loss. The Patriots turned the ball over twice. But the Bills so throughly outplayed the Patriots that the turnovers were not a determining factor in the game. The Bills didn't need the turnovers to win. Things like the Bills pass completion percentage and third down efficiency played a bigger role in determining the outcome of that game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said: For his career, Allen has 100 more passing TDs than ints. So he's pretty damn good throwing the ball too. if you want to analyze the 49ers game when it ends, and determine those turnovers are the reason for a loss, awesome. I got no problem analyzing specific game stats to determine what impacted the outcome. If you want to throw out an aggregated stat, like, say, 94% of teams who don't turn the ball over win, well I probably want to continue the conversation to learn if that stat proved true in this specific game. No, what I’m saying is, by definition, those TO’s have ALREADY affected the outcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perry Turtle Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Just now, FireChans said: No, what I’m saying is, by definition, those TO’s have ALREADY affected the outcome. So the Ravens are winning this game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maine-iac Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, FireChans said: No, what I’m saying is, by definition, those TO’s have ALREADY affected the outcome. .... but only if Purdy doesn't score a TD and put them ahead. If Purdy throws a TD and walks off and the Raven's score again and win none of Purdy's turnovers count. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said: So the Ravens are winning this game? Probably, yeah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perry Turtle Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Maine-iac said: .... but only if Purdy doesn't score a TD and put them ahead. If Purdy throws a TD and walks off and the Raven's score again and win none of Purdy's turnovers count. Now you're getting it! 😄 3 minutes ago, FireChans said: Probably, yeah. Yeah, I think the Ravens are the better team. Hope they do the same thing to Miami next week. Edited December 26, 2023 by Perry Turtle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said: Now you're getting it! 😄 Yeah, I think the Ravens are the better team. I think that the QB throwing 4 picks is a huge reason they are about to get blown out. crazy concept. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perry Turtle Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Just now, FireChans said: I think that the QB throwing 4 picks is a huge reason they are about to get blown out. crazy concept. In this case, it's not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Just now, Perry Turtle said: In this case, it's not. IN EVERY CASE ITS NOT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perry Turtle Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Just now, FireChans said: IN EVERY CASE ITS NOT. NO IT'S NOT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Perry Turtle said: NO IT'S NOT. You’re just wrong. there’s no other way to describe it. There’s no statistical analysis that supports your position that turnovers EVER don’t matter. Nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBBills Fan Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 So you are saying the turnover battle is one of the most important metrics that determines winning and losing? You don't say? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perry Turtle Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Just now, FireChans said: You’re just wrong. there’s no other way to describe it. There’s no statistical analysis that supports your position that turnovers EVER don’t matter. Nothing. I never said that turnovers don't EVER matter. There are definitely cases where they do matter and I gave an example where I believed they matrered. But there ARE several cases where they DON'T matter. Can I find a case where they didn't matter? Hmm, I have to go all the way back to um, Saturday night. This obscure team, the Buffalo Bills (ever hear of them) lost the turnover battle 0-3 to the Chargers, but WON the game. So I guess that turnovers don't matter in EVERY case. Right? So I guess you are WRONG that turnovers matter in EVERY CASE. 4 minutes ago, TBBills Fan said: So you are saying the turnover battle is one of the most important metrics that determines winning and losing? You don't say? It depends. 😉 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBBills Fan Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Just now, Perry Turtle said: I never said that turnovers don't EVER matter. There are definitely cases where they do matter and I gave an example where I believed they matrered. But there ARE several cases where they DON'T matter. Can I find a case where they didn't matter? Hmm, I have to go all the way back to um, Saturday night. This obscure team, the Buffalo Bills (ever hear of them) lost the turnover battle 0-3 to the Chargers, but WON the game. So I guess that turnovers don't matter in EVERY case. Right? So I guess you are WRONG that turnovers matter in EVERY CASE. It depends. 😉 One of the most important-always Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said: I never said that turnovers don't EVER matter. There are definitely cases where they do matter and I gave an example where I believed they matrered. But there ARE several cases where they DON'T matter. Can I find a case where they didn't matter? Hmm, I have to go all the way back to um, Saturday night. This obscure team, the Buffalo Bills (ever hear of them) lost the turnover battle 0-3 to the Chargers, but WON the game. So I guess that turnovers don't matter in EVERY case. Right? So I guess you are WRONG that turnovers matter in EVERY CASE. It depends. 😉 Those turnovers DID matter lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perry Turtle Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 (edited) 6 minutes ago, FireChans said: Those turnovers DID matter lol. To whom? 😄 Not to the team. The W is posted in the standings. They're on to New England. Nick Wright will probably bring it up to make himself feel better about Mahomes this week. So there's that. Edited December 26, 2023 by Perry Turtle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said: To whom? 😄 Not to the team. The W is posted in the standings. They're on to New England. Nick Wright will probably bring it up to make himself feel better about Mahomes this week. So there's that. This is hilarious circular logic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 The 49ers have multiple turnovers in scoring position and it had no impact on the game. Got it. Holy crap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perry Turtle Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 (edited) 1 minute ago, Mikie2times said: The 49ers have multiple turnovers in scoring position and it had no impact on the game. Got it. Holy crap. No one ever said that in reference to the 49ers game. Edited December 26, 2023 by Perry Turtle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 21 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said: To whom? 😄 Not to the team. The W is posted in the standings. They're on to New England. Nick Wright will probably bring it up to make himself feel better about Mahomes this week. So there's that. If TO’s don’t matter in wins, then TD’s don’t matter in losses. You really painted yourself in a corner there lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Arnold Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 4:00 PM, Maine-iac said: Almost anyone can see that Allen turns the ball over too much. Allen has a turnover in almost every single game. His big play ability trumps some of it but if Allen would just learn to take the easy stuff a little more often and stop throwing 15 yards down field into coverage we probably aren't fighting 3 and 8 teams for wins in the 4th quarter as often. On 12/24/2023 at 7:34 PM, FireChans said: Most important stat in football is points. Number 2 is turnovers. This has always been the case. Turnovers will always matter. Elite coaching the difference? Turnovers are so overblown it's really incredible. People truly equate turnovers and touchdowns as if they're even remotely equivalent in value. Comical. What's the difference between a turnover and a punt? Slightly worse field position? Whoopty-damn-doo. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perry Turtle Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, FireChans said: If TO’s don’t matter in wins, then TD’s don’t matter in losses. You really painted yourself in a corner there lol Well that just f###ing stupid. And to be technical TDs in losses count towards tie breakers in the final standings. Turnovers don't. WRONG AGAIN Rabbit. Tell me how those turnovers in the Bills win matter to anyone but you. NFL teams review the game film on Mondays and then move onto the next gameplan. Why should anyone be concerned with these turnovers? Edited December 26, 2023 by Perry Turtle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Perry Turtle said: Well Allen walked off the field in OT with that game tied. The Bills lost that game on a punt returned of a TD. You accuse of others of believing Josh is dumb, but nobody I know is saying that. Allen is an incredibly intelligent player. He has something like 125+ more career total TDs than interceptions. You don't post numbers like that if you're not intelligent. Do you believe Allen is playing dumb? Every player makes mistakes, Allen's no different, but he's pretty damn good at making up for those mistakes. The guy is the biggest reset button in the league. Seems like the only resolution that most want on this thread is to have Allen never throw another interception again. I mean, he scored three TDs against the Chargers, but because the game was close and Allen threw a pick, everybody wants to obsess on that. If you don't think Allen plays smartly, maybe you should take a look at the throws he makes rather than the ones he misses. He's a pretty spectacular QB. I’m not accusing Josh of being dumb. I think he’s an incredible QB and can improve even more. You are the one who seems to think we have to take him as he is and that he has no room for improvement. oh and the Jets game? The reason it was tied at the end of regulation? Josh’s picks. He even said he lost the game because of them. He’s a big boy, you don’t have to defend him as if he’s a saint. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perry Turtle Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Just now, oldmanfan said: I’m not accusing Josh of being dumb. I think he’s an incredible QB and can improve even more. You are the one who seems to think we have to take him as he is and that he has no room for improvement. oh and the Jets game? The reason it was tied at the end of regulation? Josh’s picks. He even said he lost the game because of them. He’s a big boy, you don’t have to defend him as if he’s a saint. If this is Allen's ceiling, I'll take it every day of the week. If can improve, great, but I'll take him as-is, interceptions and all. That Jets game is Allen's floor. Sure he took blame. He's a stand up guy. But three interceptions and he still leads the team to force overtime, at a time where it looked like nothing was working for him. He plays 'bad' and the team isn't getting blown out, instead they're battling for the win on the final drive. If the Bills had a healthy defense this season, with Milano, Jones, and White, I would be laying money on them left and right to win the Super Bowl. In my mind, he doesn't need to improve. He just needs to play his game. If he does improve, great, but I think he's pretty locked in right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDingus Posted December 26, 2023 Author Share Posted December 26, 2023 4 hours ago, HappyDays said: Mahomes for the first time in his career has to play with a below average group of skill players and OL. It isn't a coincidence he is throwing more stupid looking INTs this year. He has no choice but to push the envelope. Like I've said many many times Allen and Mahomes the past 3 years or so have played at a very similar level. The difference in team results over that period is exclusively because of other factors that have nothing to do with QB play. Both offenses would likely be bottom of the league bad this year if not for the greatness of their QBs. Agreed, but then the media would have to admit ***ALL*** QB's "need help." But the Chiefs have a great defense, a similarly unimpressive WR corps, a HOF TE, and still have Andy Reid calling plays. So what happened? Am I supposed to believe the dropoff from Juju Smith-Schuster to Rashee Rice is SO massive that they go from Super Bowl winners to this? Their RBs are still Isiah Pacheco & Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and the rest of their WR corps is still mostly the same as last year (Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, etc.). The biggest difference this season is Eric Bieniemy leaving (though he didn't call plays), and more turnovers. Chiefs had 23 turnovers in 17 games last year, but are already at 26 through 15 games this year. Mahomes simply isn't playing as well as normal, and the rest of the offense isn't helping either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 (edited) 45 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said: Well that just f###ing stupid. And to be technical TDs in losses count towards tie breakers in the final standings. Turnovers don't. WRONG AGAIN Rabbit. Tell me how those turnovers in the Bills win matter to anyone but you. NFL teams review the game film on Mondays and then move onto the next gameplan. Why should anyone be concerned with these turnovers? It’s actually net points in tiebreakers, and turnovers can lead to opponents scoring, so you’re wrong again unfortunately. Try again lol Edited December 26, 2023 by FireChans 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perry Turtle Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 10 minutes ago, FireChans said: It’s actually net points in tiebreakers, and turnovers can lead to opponents scoring, so you’re wrong again unfortunately. Try again lol Yeah, points scored in loses still impact net points, so you're statement about points in loses not counting is still hysterically and hopelessly WRONG. Things that can lead to opponents scoring: turnovers, failed 4th downs, net punt average, average rush yards against, average pass yards against, pass percentage against, defensive penalties taken, field goal percentage against, offense penalties taken in your own end zone, average opponent field start, kick-off yards surrendered. Know what all of these have in common? Not a single one of them is used in any tie break scenario. So nice try, but WRONG again. So enough grasping at straws rabbit. You have the gun. Try not to blow your own head off in explaining why those turnovers in the Bills win against the Chargers matter. Make it fact based. No "what ifs" or "alternative game" theory. You claim that EVERY turnover matters unconditionally. So why do those Bills turnovers matter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr.Sack Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Ask Purdy about TOs. Ours are a collective effort. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockinon Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Whoopty damn doo😆 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 10 hours ago, Perry Turtle said: Yeah, points scored in loses still impact net points, so you're statement about points in loses not counting is still hysterically and hopelessly WRONG. Things that can lead to opponents scoring: turnovers, failed 4th downs, net punt average, average rush yards against, average pass yards against, pass percentage against, defensive penalties taken, field goal percentage against, offense penalties taken in your own end zone, average opponent field start, kick-off yards surrendered. Know what all of these have in common? Not a single one of them is used in any tie break scenario. So nice try, but WRONG again. So enough grasping at straws rabbit. You have the gun. Try not to blow your own head off in explaining why those turnovers in the Bills win against the Chargers matter. Make it fact based. No "what ifs" or "alternative game" theory. You claim that EVERY turnover matters unconditionally. So why do those Bills turnovers matter? So all those things matter in wins because they can be used in tiebreakers. you are flailing bad here lol. You’re the one who said TO’s don’t matter in wins. But I guess they do. Because of tiebreakers. You lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BananaB Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 12 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said: Turnovers are so overblown it's really incredible. People truly equate turnovers and touchdowns as if they're even remotely equivalent in value. Comical. What's the difference between a turnover and a punt? Slightly worse field position? Whoopty-damn-doo. Rather throw 4 or 5 InTs at the end on a half Hail Mary or on 3rd and forever situation changing field position then having a pick six. 🤷🏼♂️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALLinALLEN Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 I for one am shocked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 2:56 PM, BigDingus said: We all know turnovers are a huge issue with this team, but last night made it even more apparent. I've seen a lot of people questioning Brady's playcalling or Josh needing to pass more, but the reality is turnovers are killing us the most. I went back through every game this year, and the big picture becomes a lot more clear. Here are the results: Won Turnover Battle: *WIN vs Raiders (38-10): Turnovers 0 vs 3 (BLOWOUT) *WIN vs Commies (37-3): Turnovers 1 vs 5 (BLOWOUT) *WIN vs Dolphins (48-20): Turnovers 0 vs 2 (BLOWOUT) *WIN vs NJ Jets (32-6): Turnovers 1 vs 4 (BLOWOUT) *LOSS vs Eagles (34-37): Turnovers 1 vs 2 *WIN vs Chiefs (20-17): Turnovers 1 vs 2 *WIN vs Cowboys (31-10): Turnovers 0 vs 1 (BLOWOUT) 1) First thing you notice is we're 6-1 when we have a positive turnover differential 2) 4 of the 5 wins were blowouts 3) 6 of the 7 games the Bills put up 30+ points, averaging 34.3 PPG (opponents averaging 14.7 ppg) Lost/Tied Turnover Battle: *LOSS vs NJ Jets (16-22): Turnovers 4 vs 1 ("Bad" Team) *LOSS vs Jaguars (20-25) Turnovers 2 vs 2 *WIN vs NJ Giants (14-9): Turnovers 2 vs 0 ("Bad" Team) *LOSS vs Patriots (25-29): Turnovers 2 vs 1 ("Bad" Team) *WIN vs Bucaneers (24-18): Turnovers 1 vs 0 *LOSS vs Bengals (18-24) Turnovers 2 vs 0 *LOSS vs Broncos (22-24) Turnovers 4 vs 1 *WIN vs Chargers (24-22) Turnovers 3 vs 0 ("Bad" Team) 1) Surprising nobody, we're 3-5 when we have a negative turnover differential 2) The 3 wins are against "bad" or mediocre teams, just barely escaping with a 1 score victory 3) The Bills average 20.1 PPG in these games (opponents average 21.6 PPG) 4) They're 1-5 if an opponent tops 20 points (Last night was the exception) Final Thoughts: 1) The Bills average 14 more PPG when they win the turnover battle because those drives end in POINTS. 2) Our defense isn't giving up an additional 7 PPG because they just suck, but because they have to go right back out onto the field & defend additional drives! 3) We struggle against "Bad-Average" teams because we keep giving them the damn ball... 4) We make these narratives like "if there wasn't 12 men on the field or the defense didn't choke we would've won!" But when you spot a team 3 turnovers or lose the turnover battle on the road, you're putting yourself in a position to lose anyway 5) IT SHOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO STRING TOGETHER 2+ GAMES WITHOUT AN INTERCEPTION 6) Notice how the Chiefs are also struggling this year? They're tied with us for total turnovers. The only teams ahead of us are the Commanders, Jets, Browns, Vikings & Bears. 7) We can dislike coaches, playcalling, officials, whatever... but the fumbles & INTs are what holds this team back more than all the rest combined. Bingo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uninja Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 12 hours ago, BigDingus said: Agreed, but then the media would have to admit ***ALL*** QB's "need help." But the Chiefs have a great defense, a similarly unimpressive WR corps, a HOF TE, and still have Andy Reid calling plays. So what happened? Am I supposed to believe the dropoff from Juju Smith-Schuster to Rashee Rice is SO massive that they go from Super Bowl winners to this? Their RBs are still Isiah Pacheco & Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and the rest of their WR corps is still mostly the same as last year (Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, etc.). The biggest difference this season is Eric Bieniemy leaving (though he didn't call plays), and more turnovers. Chiefs had 23 turnovers in 17 games last year, but are already at 26 through 15 games this year. Mahomes simply isn't playing as well as normal, and the rest of the offense isn't helping either. I think it's a combination of they miss Bieniemy, their OL is playing worse, the installed plays just aren't 'as good' (yeah Andy Reid calls the plays, but an offensive staff installs the gameplan and designs the plays and that seems to have taken a few steps back this year), the lack of a solid WR that Mahomes can depend on (was Juju last year) and Father Time catching up to Kielce finally. All of that together and you can see that Mahomes just isn't trusting everything in front of him. The entire offense just seems to be playing with a lack of focus and discipline that maybe Bieniemy brought because he is (according to rumors) kind of a hard ass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Arnold Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 2 hours ago, BananaB said: Rather throw 4 or 5 InTs at the end on a half Hail Mary or on 3rd and forever situation changing field position then having a pick six. 🤷🏼♂️ And box score scouts who think Allen should be eliminated from MVP consideration because he's second in the league in interceptions treat them exactly the same. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 (edited) 15 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said: Turnovers are so overblown it's really incredible. People truly equate turnovers and touchdowns as if they're even remotely equivalent in value. Comical. What's the difference between a turnover and a punt? Slightly worse field position? Whoopty-damn-doo. Yea the situation the turnover occurred in is wayyy more important than just the total count of turnovers. Throwing a bomb on third down to take a chance on making something happen is better than punting strategically. a deep INT on 1st or second down is a negative play but doesn’t hurt anywhere close to as bad as a fumble or pick six as far as turnovers that really hurt us strategically in big spots of games I think Allen is right in line with a lot of the other great qbs if not less. He’s had a lot of rotten luck this year with defenders catching everything too Edited December 26, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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