Bills Now Control Their Own Destiny

[Scott7975]

13 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

I posted in other thread about scenarios where buffalo could clinch a wildcard spot before week 28 starts.

 

Buffalo WW and assume CLE has 10+ wins thus only one other WC spot team can get to 20 Wins or more

3 of these 4 occur

 

1. PIT WL

2. CIN LL

3 DEN lose one

4. HOU and IND both lose a game, or JAX LL. Basically a scenario where only the third place team can’t have 10+ wins

 

if CLE LL then a WC spot opens up. If CIN L one then their week 18 meet up only has one team at 10W.
In option 4 above, if both happen then that opens up another scenario.

 

BUF can’t get the #1 seed. They lose tiebreakers to BAL by common games record. KC wins a KC, BAL, BUF tie.

if BUF gets WC before week 18 and MIA WW then Miami  clinches division and BUF probably rests everyone.  You run a risk of playing A game and win and then have to repeat it the next weekend of BUF-MIA in playoffs 

 

Is your "1" key broke or did the NFL add games I am not aware of?

[Don Otreply]

8 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

Except he is not Sicilian but Jewish; in anniversary show (just watched it this week) he tells how role was intended for Danny Devito so was perpetually nervous.

Seen it, 

[Motorin']

37 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I don't agree with Texans over Browns.  Texans loss puts us controlling our own destiny this week.  Browns does not as they would have to lose another game.

 

It actually doesn't. The Texans can lose this week and the Bengals, Browns and Colts can all make it ahead of the 11-7 Bills.

 

A Browns loss this week means that either the Browns or Bengals will be eliminated from reaching 11-7 when they play each other.

 

And because the Colts play the Texans later, one of them will be eliminated from reaching 11-7.

 

So a Texans victory over the Browns means that only two of the four teams: Browns, Bengals, Colt and Texans can reach 11-7. 

 

So if only the Browns lose this week, the Bills control their own destiny. 

Edited December 23, 2023 by Motorin'

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, Motorin' said:

 

It actually doesn't. The Texans can lose this week and the Bengals, Browns and Colts can all make it ahead of the 11-7 Bills.

 

A Browns loss this week means that either the Browns or Bengals will be eliminated from reaching 11-7. 

 

And because the Colts play the Texans later, one of them will be eliminated from reaching 11-7.

 

So a Texans victory over the Browns means that only two of the four teams: Browns, Bengals, Colt and Texans can reach 11-7. 

 

So if only the Browns lose this week, the Bills control their own destiny. 

 

I do not think that is right.  I can't prove it at this point because the playoff machine is bugged on my browser but NYTs has us at 100% this week with a Texans loss.

[Rubes]

I like these threads for the thought experiment, but for me it really comes down to this simple truth: The playoffs have already started.

 

We need to win out all the way through February or basically we're done. If we lose to the Chargers, Pats****, or Fins, we don't deserve to be in the playoffs, and even if we somehow lose one of those and sneak in, we aren't going far if we can't beat those three teams with everything on the line.

 

[Motorin']

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I do not think that is right.  I can't prove it at this point because the playoff machine is bugged on my browser but NYTs has us at 100% this week with a Texans loss.

 

The NY Times has it the exact opposite for me. 99% with a Browns win. 100% with a Texans win. 

 

Cause if the Browns won, they can still lose to the Bengals and be 11-7. And the Jags and Colts can win out. So that puts the Bills up against three other teams at 11-7.

 

But if the Browns lose to the Texans, that means it's only possible for one of the Browns or Bengals to get to 11 wins because they play each other. 

 

Now assume the Jags win out, the Colts or Texans will eliminate one or the other when they play. 

 

So there's only 2 other wild card teams that can get to 11-7 if the Browns lose to the Texans. 

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, Motorin' said:

 

The NY Times has it the exact opposite for me. 99% with a Browns win. 100% with a Texans win. 

 

Cause if the Browns won, they can still lose to the Bengals and be 11-7. And the Jags and Colts can win out. So that puts the Bills up against three other teams at 11-7.

 

But if the Browns lose to the Texans, that means it's only possible for one of the Browns or Bengals to get to 11 wins because they play each other. 

 

Now assume the Jags win out, the Colts or Texans will eliminate one or the other when they play. 

 

So there's only 2 other wild card teams that can get to 11-7 if the Browns lose to the Texans. 

 

Weird.  At the end of the day, it really doesn't matter so not worth arguing about.  If the Bills win out, the chances are really small they don't at least get a wild card.  I am not a gambler but I am willing to bet the Dolphins will lose at least one of Ravens or Dallas anyways.  I really think we win the division if we win out.

[Motorin']

5 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Weird.  At the end of the day, it really doesn't matter so not worth arguing about.  If the Bills win out, the chances are really small they don't at least get a wild card.  I am not a gambler but I am willing to bet the Dolphins will lose at least one of Ravens or Dallas anyways.  I really think we win the division if we win out.

 

My favorite scenario is the Bills win out, win the division. Miami goes to KC, Cleveland goes to Baltimore and the Colts come to Buffalo. 

[Punch]

2 hours ago, Motorin' said:

The Bills of course have to take care of business. If they do, they need just 1 of 13 results to go in their favor in order to control their own destiny.

 

Rooting Interests

 

Week 16

 

Steelers over Bengals 

Texans over Browns

Falcons over Colts 

Bucs over Jags

Cowboys over Fins 

 

Any one of these results occur this week, and if the Bills beat the Chargers, they control their own destiny. 

The Browns are 1 game ahead of the Bills at 9-5 and the Texans are tied at 8-6. Does Houston have the tiebreaker over Buffalo, and Buffalo the tiebreaker over Cleveland?

[Motorin']

Just now, Punch said:

The Browns are 1 game ahead of the Bills at 9-5 and the Texans are tied at 8-6. Does Houston have the tiebreaker over Buffalo, and Buffalo the tiebreaker over Cleveland?

 

No. But the Browns play the Bengals. And the Texans play the Colts. So only two of those four teams would be able to make it to 11-7 if the Texans beat the Browns. But if the Browns beat the Texans, then 3 teams can make it to 11-7 and eliminate the Bills. 

[CircleTheWagons99]

2 hours ago, RiotAct said:

I have a strong feeling the ‘Boys are gonna bounce back in a big way over the stinky fish.

Their 2nd win agenst a team with a winning* record. 

[MasterStrategist]

39 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

It actually doesn't. The Texans can lose this week and the Bengals, Browns and Colts can all make it ahead of the 11-7 Bills.

 

A Browns loss this week means that either the Browns or Bengals will be eliminated from reaching 11-7 when they play each other.

 

And because the Colts play the Texans later, one of them will be eliminated from reaching 11-7.

 

So a Texans victory over the Browns means that only two of the four teams: Browns, Bengals, Colt and Texans can reach 11-7. 

 

So if only the Browns lose this week, the Bills control their own destiny. 

This is a poor way of looking at it....

 

You should be thinking, one of two scenarios to get in:

1. Win Division: in this scenario, just need Dolphins to lose 1 of next 2.  Then we control our destiny

2. Wild card: IF we lose to Miami, then we want as many teams with 8 losses.  Broncos, Colts, Texans, Bengals, Steelers OR Jags (someone wins the South of these 3 teams)

 

In scenario #2, Browns winning helps us.  As they have Texans and Cincy.   Get Texans to 7 losses AND hopefully a Colts loss before final week.  Makes that last game an elimination of one of them.

 

Cincy losing today would be amazing.  But I still see them dropping to Chiefs, then need to count on Browns.

 

Broncos have a fairly easy schedule.  Pats might be toughest matchup for them, this week.  I see them making it in.

 

Colts need an L against Falcons this week, or next week.

 

Steelers are a mess.  I'd be shocked they win today, but it's their season on the line.  I can't see them beating Ravens last week of season, or the Seahawks next week.  I'd count them out.

 

Long story short, root for Browns to knock off the "fringe" teams.

[BigAl2526]

2 hours ago, Motorin' said:

The Bills of course have to take care of business. If they do, they need just 1 of 13 results to go in their favor in order to control their own destiny.

 

Rooting Interests

 

Week 16

 

Steelers over Bengals 

Texans over Browns

Falcons over Colts 

Bucs over Jags

Cowboys over Fins 

 

Any one of these results occur this week, and if the Bills beat the Chargers, they control their own destiny. 

 

Week 17

 

Raiders over Colts

Jets over Browns

Ravens over Fins 

Chiefs over Bengals

Panthers over Jags

 

If all 5 games go against the Bills in week 16, then any 1 of these 5 results would allow the Bills to control their own destiny if they beat the Pats.

 

Week 18

 

Browns over Bengals

Texans over Colts

Titans over Jags 

 

If it comes down to week 18 and all 10 games have gone against the Bills, then just one of these games need to go the Bills way to make the playoffs, coupled with a win over the Fins. 

 

Kudos to @ImpactCorey for finding the one path to missing the playoffs at 11-7, which reveals the 13 possible paths for the Bills to control their own destiny. 

This confirms what I said in another thread.  Of the Bills win out, then a lot more things have to align to keep the Bills out of the playoffs.  There are many possible routes to the playoffs, if the Bills win out and only one tortuous route to the Bills missing the playoffs, if the Bills win out.

[Motorin']

46 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

This is a poor way of looking at it....

 

You should be thinking, one of two scenarios to get in:

1. Win Division: in this scenario, just need Dolphins to lose 1 of next 2.  Then we control our destiny

2. Wild card: IF we lose to Miami, then we want as many teams with 8 losses.  Broncos, Colts, Texans, Bengals, Steelers OR Jags (someone wins the South of these 3 teams)

 

In scenario #2, Browns winning helps us.  As they have Texans and Cincy.   Get Texans to 7 losses AND hopefully a Colts loss before final week.  Makes that last game an elimination of one of them.

 

Cincy losing today would be amazing.  But I still see them dropping to Chiefs, then need to count on Browns.

 

Broncos have a fairly easy schedule.  Pats might be toughest matchup for them, this week.  I see them making it in.

 

Colts need an L against Falcons this week, or next week.

 

Steelers are a mess.  I'd be shocked they win today, but it's their season on the line.  I can't see them beating Ravens last week of season, or the Seahawks next week.  I'd count them out.

 

Long story short, root for Browns to knock off the "fringe" teams.

 

I'm rooting for the Bills to control their own destiny and take a winning streak into the post-season. 

[Fallser]

3 hours ago, RiotAct said:

I have a strong feeling the ‘Boys are gonna bounce back in a big way over the stinky fish.

Yeah I bet the Cowboys come out guns a blazing...lets hope anyway, they STINK up the joint when they're not home.

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I do not think that is right.  I can't prove it at this point because the playoff machine is bugged on my browser but NYTs has us at 100% this week with a Texans loss.

Yea what’s up with the playoff machine?  I’ve been trying to do some scenario testing for the past day and it’s been all effed up for me.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

3 hours ago, RiotAct said:

I have a strong feeling the ‘Boys are gonna bounce back in a big way over the stinky fish.

They’re gonna have less scheme issues against the dolphins imo…dolphins oline is a mess and they don’t have to account for tua running really 

[ToGoGo]

I swear these people who keep saying “if X happens then we don’t deserve Y” have self esteem issues. 

[Dablitzkrieg]

You are my density 

[ColoradoBills]

27 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

This is a poor way of looking at it....

 

You should be thinking, one of two scenarios to get in:

1. Win Division: in this scenario, just need Dolphins to lose 1 of next 2.  Then we control our destiny

2. Wild card: IF we lose to Miami, then we want as many teams with 8 losses.  Broncos, Colts, Texans, Bengals, Steelers OR Jags (someone wins the South of these 3 teams)

 

In scenario #2, Browns winning helps us.  As they have Texans and Cincy.   Get Texans to 7 losses AND hopefully a Colts loss before final week.  Makes that last game an elimination of one of them.

 

Cincy losing today would be amazing.  But I still see them dropping to Chiefs, then need to count on Browns.

 

Broncos have a fairly easy schedule.  Pats might be toughest matchup for them, this week.  I see them making it in.

 

Colts need an L against Falcons this week, or next week.

 

Steelers are a mess.  I'd be shocked they win today, but it's their season on the line.  I can't see them beating Ravens last week of season, or the Seahawks next week.  I'd count them out.

 

Long story short, root for Browns to knock off the "fringe" teams.

 

If the Bills lose the game against Miami and need a Wildcard spot with a 10-7 record, you are correct about the Browns.

 

In the 10-7 Bills Wildcard scenario, what people are not seeing is the Bills want the Browns to win and take Seed #5.

The Bills will not get the 5th seed.

 

Where it gets tricky is finding who needs to win and lose for the Bills to get one of the remaining seeds.

That will be clearer after this week's games.