FireChans Posted December 1, 2023 Author Share Posted December 1, 2023 31 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: I can only speculate that it probably is. Yes, I would say 44 to 20 vs. 40 to 10 kind of visually pops as a significant difference at least. But then again, 44 is still much greater than 20 right? Just as 40 is much greater than 10? Is either one almost the same? It might just be me but if the numbers were like 30 TD's to 22 TO's, or 200 TD's to 170 TO's, those would be differences I would consider "almost the same". Not 44 to 20. or 210 to 96 Again, the heart of the argument here is in the final line of your OP: We basically have three outliers here. Mahomes and Rodgers on the good end. Lamar on the bad end. And then everyone else jumbled between 2.22 and 2.7. I'm going to make a strong guess that there isn't a meaningful difference there between any of those players jumbled in between Rodgers/ Mahomes at the top and Lamar at the bottom. Then of course there is this. Where ironically the turnover narrative for Allen this year is in full blown crisis mode while he has essentially the same TD:TO rate as Hurts and a higher TD:TO rate than Mahomes and Tua. But it is only Allen that has the turnover crisis. Not the other QB's. I guess when I say “almost as much of a TO machine,” I mean that he is not as hyper efficient as the other guys. He scored lots of TD’s. He also turns it over a lot. Which drives down his ratio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Compared to Rodgers everyone is a turnover machine This is known Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 17 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Allen has the most turnovers in the league. The Bills are 6-6 and lost games to the Jets and Pats. Allen is the best player on the bills. The turnovers have not helped our record. Can we at least agree on that? Sure, but there is more to wins and losses than just turnovers from the QB. As Fire Chans correctly noted, Hurts and the Eagles won because they were a better team than the Bills. Not because Allen had half as many turnovers as Hurts did in the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Just now, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: Sure, but there is more to wins and losses than just turnovers from the QB. As Fire Chans correctly noted, Hurts and the Eagles won because they were a better team than the Bills. Not because Allen had half as many turnovers as Hurts did in the game. Our style of play is too dependent on Josh. We can analyze a TD/INT ratio and as many have pointed out, the huge TD rates are what balances out the higher turnover rates. So we say ok, we will take it. But other teams can score without it being from their QB at much higher rates. At the end of the day how many turnovers you allow really matters when all things are equal (similar points scored). This is not Josh’s issue as much as it’s a Bills issue and it’s beyond just what weapons we have. If Josh is part of the offense vs him being the offense we don’t throw 50 times and we avoid the all but inevitable INT that comes with fifty passes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Just now, Mikie2times said: Our style of play is too dependent on Josh. We can analyze a TD/INT ratio and as many have pointed out, the huge TD rates are what balances out the higher turnover rates. So we say ok, we will take it. But other teams can score without it being from their QB at much higher rates. At the end of the day how many turnovers you allow really matters when all things are equal (similar points scored). This is not Josh’s issue as much as it’s a Bills issue and it’s beyond just what weapons we have. If Josh is part of the offense vs him being the offense we don’t throw 50 times and we avoid the all but inevitable INT that comes with fifty passes. Let's look at teams tho as W/L is a team function We average fewer turnovers/game than the Chiefs and Dolphins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Let's look at teams tho as W/L is a team function We average fewer turnovers/game than the Chiefs and Dolphins I’m not in a place to break data down right now but I would be far more interested in knowing the ratio of points vs turnovers against teams that are above .500 over multiple years vs two randomly picked teams. We roll the pups of the world and in those situations all things are not equal. We rarely will ever commit a turnover in those games. Once the situation becomes equal in a competitive situation if I was to bet we don’t do that great in that ratio. As Buffalo requires 50 pass attempts and other teams aren’t taking near that much risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, Mikie2times said: I’m not in a place to break data down right now but I would be far more interested in knowing the ratio of points vs turnovers against teams that are above .500 over multiple years vs two randomly picked teams. We roll the pups of the world and in those situations all things are not equal. We rarely will ever commit a turnover in those games. Once the situation becomes equal in a competitive situation if I was to bet we don’t do that great in that ratio. As Buffalo requires 50 pass attempts and other teams aren’t taking near that much risk. So this year it looks like we've played 4 teams above .500- Jags Eagles Fins Broncos Scored 124 pts and suffered 5turnovers That's 31ppg average and 1.25 turnovers.gm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
folz Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 (edited) 5 hours ago, FireChans said: I don’t think so. Allen is pretty much has the worst TD/TO ratio of the really good QB’s from that list. Worse than guys we are pretty confident he is better then. And the only way to have a turn over ratio lower than a guy like Dak, when you score a lot more touchdowns is to also have a lot more TO’s. Hence, the conclusion. That’s kinda the problem. Halfway through his career and we haven’t sniffed an SB. It felt like an inevitability 2 years ago. It no longer does. Since I looked at 5 top QBs statistically from 2020-2023 in my other post, I thought I would look at their TD:Turnover rate for that period (you went back to 2018). I also added a handful more guys from my last post for a larger comparison (outside of Rodgers, only choosing guys that played all 4 years). 2020-2023 TD:Turnover Rate* Total TDs Aaron Rodgers 4.37 118 (2020-2022 only for Rodgers) Justin Herbert 2.84 125 Patrick Mahomes 2.74 145 Jalen Hurts 2.36 99 Kirk Cousin 2.36 125 Dak Perscott 2.32 102 Joe Burrow 2.28 107 Josh Allen 2.19 162 Ryan Tannehill 2.15 86 Tua Tag 2.10 80 Matt Stafford 1.86 91 Lamar Jackson 1.82 89 Jared Goff 1.74 92 Derek Carr 1.50 87 *turnovers include interceptions and fumbles lost Now, granted, more overall TDs is still better (which Josh has) because the opposing team is not going to score 7 points off of every turnover. Some may just turn into field goals and on some they may not get points at all. So, TD to Turnover rate isn't some be-all stat for overall success or scoring or wins either. It just points out that, as we all know, Josh could get better at not turning the ball over. If he did, he would then be fully on par with Mahomes...but as it is, he's a step down right now because of the turnovers. Yet Josh's overall total TDs/scoring does balance out enough of the turnovers, to still put him ahead of the rest of the QBs in the league (not named Mahomes), imo. I mean would anyone really want Kirk Cousins instead of Josh Allen because Kirk has a better TD to Turnover Rate? Edited December 1, 2023 by folz 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted December 1, 2023 Author Share Posted December 1, 2023 1 hour ago, folz said: Since I looked at 5 top QBs statistically from 2020-2023 in my other post, I thought I would look at their TD:Turnover rate for that period (you went back to 2018). I also added a handful more guys from my last post for a larger comparison (outside of Rodgers, only choosing guys that played all 4 years). 2020-2023 TD:Turnover Rate* Total TDs Aaron Rodgers 4.37 118 (2020-2022 only for Rodgers) Justin Herbert 2.84 125 Patrick Mahomes 2.74 145 Jalen Hurts 2.36 99 Kirk Cousin 2.36 125 Dak Perscott 2.32 102 Joe Burrow 2.28 107 Josh Allen 2.19 162 Ryan Tannehill 2.15 86 Tua Tag 2.10 80 Matt Stafford 1.86 91 Lamar Jackson 1.82 89 Jared Goff 1.74 92 Derek Carr 1.50 87 *turnovers include interceptions and fumbles lost Now, granted, more overall TDs is still better (which Josh has) because the opposing team is not going to score 7 points off of every turnover. Some may just turn into field goals and on some they may not get points at all. So, TD to Turnover rate isn't some be-all stat for overall success or scoring or wins either. It just points out that, as we all know, Josh could get better at not turning the ball over. If he did, he would then be fully on par with Mahomes...but as it is, he's a step down right now because of the turnovers. Yet Josh's overall total TDs/scoring does balance out enough of the turnovers, to still put him ahead of the rest of the QBs in the league (not named Mahomes), imo. I mean would anyone really want Kirk Cousins instead of Josh Allen because Kirk has a better TD to Turnover Rate? Some folks continue to dispute the bolded and I’m not sure why. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 1 hour ago, FireChans said: Some folks continue to dispute the bolded and I’m not sure why. I don’t really think anyone disagrees with the bolded who are the specific posters that disagree? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 3 hours ago, GoBills808 said: So this year it looks like we've played 4 teams above .500- Jags Eagles Fins Broncos Scored 124 pts and suffered 5turnovers That's 31ppg average and 1.25 turnovers.gm I'll take that average all year. This season was probably lost because Dorsey & the offense way underperformed against the Jets & Patriots. We'd be 8-4 and in a good position to easily make the playoffs. Throw in McDermott's garbage defense late in games and 8 wins could be 10. This whole media frenzy about Josh and the TO's is so overblown is comical. Their collective laziness ignores that Tua & Hurts are at 10 and Mahomes at 9. Of course qbs that run and throw more are going to have a higher TO ratio. But basically now the media credit Josh with 3 INT's before the game even starts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 I’ll post it again: Dak is 6-1 in his last 7 starts with 25:3 total TD to TO ratio. That’s about as good as it gets. If he goes 25:12, better than 2:1, like some are suggesting is OK, those 9 additional TO’s likely cost them a few games. More turnovers are always bad and always cost games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CincyBillsFan Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 4 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said: This is the problem. Are you a fan of the bills or Josh Allen? Like this is kind of weird and I should alert Allen? Any slight (the horror of saying Allen is a top 3 qb but can be inconsistent at times! 😱) makes you react like a soccer mom talking about their kid. Is this how you debate points? Seems like you melt down and start throwing insults at anyone that disagrees with your unhinged and inaccurate attacks on Allen. BTW, what I think is weird is that you haven't been able to get past your hatred of the Allen pick from back in 2018. How long are you going to hold a grudge that Allen has made you and bunch of others look like football illiterates. Oh and I love your passive aggressive shtick where you trash Allen and then add a disclaimer at the end saying something along the lines that "Allen is a top 3 QB". Come on man, anyone reading what you say about Allen's deficiencies can't possibly believe that you believe he's a top 3 QB. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CincyBillsFan Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 1 hour ago, FireChans said: Some folks continue to dispute the bolded and I’m not sure why. No most of us don't dispute the bolded: "It just points out that, as we all know, Josh could get better at not turning the ball over. If he did, he would then be fully on par with Mahomes...but as it is, he's a step down right now because of the turnovers" What we dispute are the causes and solutions to the problem: * The cause of Allen's excess TO's IMO is primarily because he has the weakest supporting cast of offensive players compared to the other QB's on the list. * The solution IMO is twofold: 1) shift FA money & draft picks to the offense and 2) move away from a defense minded coach to an offense minded coach. Others seem to think that Allen's TO issues are primarily his fault because he can't read the field or that he's careless with the ball. Other causes that are thrown out are that he doesn't work out in the off season and he makes to many commercials. These same folks claim that if Allen would just work harder in the off season and stop being careless the TO's would go away. Sorry I happen to think I'm right here and they're wrong. Hopefully well never have to test either hypothesis as a result of Allen leaving the Bills and taking leading another team to a SB win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastport bills Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 On 11/29/2023 at 9:05 PM, FireChans said: So here's my response to @Alphadawg7's analysis which was hyper-focused on solely interceptions. We are gonna look at QB's since 2018 (since Josh entered the league) and analyze the TD:TO ratio Aaron Rodgers 4.3 (!) Patrick Mahomes 3.2 Russell Wilson 2.9 Tom Brady 2.73 Justin Herbert 2.65 Jalen Hurts 2.5 Deshaun Watson 2.43 Joe Burrow 2.27 Kirk Cousins 2.24 Lamar Jackson 2.23 Dak Prescott 2.23 Josh Allen 2.18 Ryan Tannehill 2.09 Matt Stafford 1.79 Jared Goff 1.64 Matt Ryan 1.64 Derek Carr 1.5 So what does this tell us? Josh's counting numbers are elite, but on a TD:TO ratio, he's near the bottom rung of the upper echelon QB's in the NFL today. Now, some of these QB's are trending downward significantly from who or what they were 4-5 years ago, namely Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson. But, IMO, this supports the narrative that Josh Allen is almost as much of a TO machine as he is a TD machine. Nothing like a clueless Josh hater constructing a mindless statistical thread comparing all these QBs propensity to throw picks in order for him to arrive at detracting from Josh’s value and being able to call him a TO machine. Remember, beside Mahomes, who is on another level, Josh has won more, thrown more TDs, played more(never missed a game) and ran for more TDs, with suspect O-lines and 4 different OCs. His value is higher than all these QBs because without him the team is picking to 5 in the draft. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
90sBills Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 3 hours ago, FireChans said: Some folks continue to dispute the bolded and I’m not sure why. Because they’re blinded by the notion that Allen is the best in the league and Mahomes only seems better because of any excuses you want to make. Just homerism. It’s gotten so bad lately that complimenting Mahomes is a slight towards Allen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 Not that I don't appreciate @FireChanswork But there already exist a suite of QB specific (and offense in general) metrics as they relate to efficiency I would encourage folks to check them out if interested https://www.nfeloapp.com/qb-rankings/ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted December 2, 2023 Author Share Posted December 2, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Eastport bills said: Nothing like a clueless Josh hater constructing a mindless statistical thread comparing all these QBs propensity to throw picks in order for him to arrive at detracting from Josh’s value and being able to call him a TO machine. Remember, beside Mahomes, who is on another level, Josh has won more, thrown more TDs, played more(never missed a game) and ran for more TDs, with suspect O-lines and 4 different OCs. His value is higher than all these QBs because without him the team is picking to 5 in the draft. The numbers are the numbers my man. 2 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said: No most of us don't dispute the bolded: "It just points out that, as we all know, Josh could get better at not turning the ball over. If he did, he would then be fully on par with Mahomes...but as it is, he's a step down right now because of the turnovers" What we dispute are the causes and solutions to the problem: * The cause of Allen's excess TO's IMO is primarily because he has the weakest supporting cast of offensive players compared to the other QB's on the list. * The solution IMO is twofold: 1) shift FA money & draft picks to the offense and 2) move away from a defense minded coach to an offense minded coach. Others seem to think that Allen's TO issues are primarily his fault because he can't read the field or that he's careless with the ball. Other causes that are thrown out are that he doesn't work out in the off season and he makes to many commercials. These same folks claim that if Allen would just work harder in the off season and stop being careless the TO's would go away. Sorry I happen to think I'm right here and they're wrong. Hopefully well never have to test either hypothesis as a result of Allen leaving the Bills and taking leading another team to a SB win. I don’t necessarily agree that Josh has the WEAKEST supporting cast, but I do agree that upgrading our offensive weapons would probably decrease his propensity to press and make poor throws. It’s very fair, imo, to say that Mahomes’ numbers are boosted a bit from having two HoF targets for a chunk of his career. I also think Josh’s gunslinger gutsy mentality drives a lot of these TO’s as well, and that makes him the great QB he is. I just wish he could be a little bit better at picking and choosing his spots. Edited December 2, 2023 by FireChans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CincyBillsFan Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 14 minutes ago, FireChans said: The numbers are the numbers my man. I don’t necessarily agree that Josh has the WEAKEST supporting cast, but I do agree that upgrading our offensive weapons would probably decrease his propensity to press and make poor throws. It’s very fair, imo, to say that Mahomes’ numbers are boosted a bit from having two HoF targets for a chunk of his career. I also think Josh’s gunslinger gutsy mentality drives a lot of these TO’s as well, and that makes him the great QB he is. I just wish he could be a little bit better at picking and choosing his spots. So which of these Super Bowl contending peers of the Bills has worse offensive weapons then Buffalo? KC: Sure they don't have the dynamic duo of Kelsey/Hill but Mahomes had them for 4 seasons. In 2022 the Chiefs had a much better O line (top 3 versus a bottom 10 Bills line) and much better offensive coaching. This season Mahomes is the closest he's been to Allen in weapons since they entered the league. And notice how similar their numbers are this year. And of course Mahomes has better offensive coaching and a better O line. SF: Can we agree that the 49's Purdy has enjoyed much superior offensive play makers and O line and coaching versus the Bills over the last 2 seasons. Eagles: Hurts clearly has superior play makers, O line and offensive coaching. Dallas: Dak clearly has superior play makers and O line. Miami: Tua has superior play makers and offensive coaching. Cincinnati: Burrow enjoys superior play makers, a better O line (today) and better offensive coaching. The Bengals let 2 starting safeties go to further upgrade their O line. Baltimore: This is the one SB peer that until this year has not had superior play makers though this year they do. This is also a team & QB that have not sniffed the Super Bowl with the team being 1 - 4 and the QB 1 - 3 in the playoffs since 2018. So I would love to hear which of the Bills SB contending peers has worse offensive talent/coaching surrounding their QB then Allen has surrounding him? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Airseven Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 I prefer “turnover artist” as some of Allen’s INTs/fumbles - both in terms of circumstance and impact - are rather *especial* 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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