Joe Marino

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

19 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Why is 24 points too much for our offense to overcome?  

 

Our TOP was bad because on our 3 punts, we ran 10 plays.  Our INT was on 2 plays.  

 

If it takes only 24 points on defense to give us a 10-20% chance of winning?

 

The shortest Bengals possession was a 1:52 TD drive that featured 4 timeouts (1 injury, 1 Bills TO, 1 Bengals TO, and the 2 minute warning). Our offense did have 2x 3 and outs and a quick turnover, but they would have to play a perfect game to have TOP be close to even. 

 

24 points, 400 yards, 0 turnovers, 1 sack, and 36 minutes TOP is a lousy defensive game. It's not impossible to win in those circumstances, but it's a lot for an offense to overcome. 

[Shanahan's Horseshoe]

Seems to be a bit of a disagreement between Marino and Turner from cover 1 who I think are the best.  
Turner thinks Dorsey’s scheme is predictable and one note.  Marino says it’s pretty much Josh. After watching Turners criticisms I tended to lean more toward Marino. There are guys open. Josh ain’t seeing them and locking in presnap way too much. 

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

The shortest Bengals possession was a 1:52 TD drive that featured 4 timeouts (1 injury, 1 Bills TO, 1 Bengals TO, and the 2 minute warning). Our offense did have 2x 3 and outs and a quick turnover, but they would have to play a perfect game to have TOP be close to even. 

 

24 points, 400 yards, 0 turnovers, 1 sack, and 36 minutes TOP is a lousy defensive game. It's not impossible to win in those circumstances, but it's a lot for an offense to overcome. 

 

The offense could have overcome 24 points by scoring on ANY of the 6 drives they were given. Thats nowhere near having to "play a perfect game." If you can't score once out of 6 drives then that's the problem.  That same one drive takes 5 mins and suddenly the ToP is only two minutes difference.  You know jack all about football.  That is not a lot for an offense to overcome at all.  Not even sure why you are including "that featured 4 timeouts (1 injury, 1 Bills TO, 1 Bengals TO, and the 2 minute warning)." because that doesn't add to ToP on the game clock. If anything it gives our D a rest so its a good thing.  Our offense sure didn't give em any rest.

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

6 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The offense could have overcome 24 points by scoring on ANY of the 6 drives they were given. Thats nowhere near having to "play a perfect game." If you can't score once out of 6 drives then that's the problem.  That same one drive takes 5 mins and suddenly the ToP is only two minutes difference.  You know jack all about football.  That is not a lot for an offense to overcome at all.  Not even sure why you are including "that featured 4 timeouts (1 injury, 1 Bills TO, 1 Bengals TO, and the 2 minute warning)." because that doesn't add to ToP on the game clock. If anything it gives our D a rest so its a good thing.  Our offense sure didn't give em any rest.

 

Complete list of games this season where a defense allowed 24+ points and forced 0 turnovers in a win:

 

Week 1:

Dolphins 36 Chargers 34

 

Week 2:

Giants 31 Cardinals 28

Titans 27 Chargers 24 (OT)

Falcons 25 Packers 24

 

Week 3:

Seahawks 37 Panthers 27

 

Week 4:

Eagles 34 Commanders 31

 

6 times out of 136 games and not once since week 4. I guess my initial estimate of the DEF giving us a 10-20% chance of winning was too generous. 

 

As for the bolded section, that's exactly the reason I included it. The Bengals shortest drive was short because of timeouts, not because the DEF got a quick stop. I thought spelling that out would be redundant and an insult to other poster's intelligence. My apologies for misestimating you. 

 

[Scott7975]

40 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

Complete list of games this season where a defense allowed 24+ points and forced 0 turnovers in a win:

 

Week 1:

Dolphins 36 Chargers 34

 

Week 2:

Giants 31 Cardinals 28

Titans 27 Chargers 24 (OT)

Falcons 25 Packers 24

 

Week 3:

Seahawks 37 Panthers 27

 

Week 4:

Eagles 34 Commanders 31

 

6 times out of 136 games and not once since week 4. I guess my initial estimate of the DEF giving us a 10-20% chance of winning was too generous. 

 

As for the bolded section, that's exactly the reason I included it. The Bengals shortest drive was short because of timeouts, not because the DEF got a quick stop. I thought spelling that out would be redundant and an insult to other poster's intelligence. My apologies for misestimating you. 

 

 

Now show how many teams won scoring 18 points or less.  In most of those losing efforts where the D gave up 24+ points they had the same thing in common... the offense was not scoring and turning over the football.  A defense can only do so much when the offense keeps putting them back on the field. 

 

I don't care about the clock. The clock changes to be normal ToP with just one 5 minute drive by the offense instead of turning the football over after 14 seconds. Our offense gave them two extra possessions.  Again, the defense stopped the Bengals 6 times.  They scored 3 points the entire second half.  Our offense did nothing until mid 4th quarter.  The game wasn't even close before last min offense.  The offense was the problem this game not the defense. 

 

Now I am done with you because we are just going in circles and you haven't retorted anything.

Edited November 7, 2023 by Scott7975

[Mango]

4 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

The shortest Bengals possession was a 1:52 TD drive that featured 4 timeouts (1 injury, 1 Bills TO, 1 Bengals TO, and the 2 minute warning). Our offense did have 2x 3 and outs and a quick turnover, but they would have to play a perfect game to have TOP be close to even. 

 

24 points, 400 yards, 0 turnovers, 1 sack, and 36 minutes TOP is a lousy defensive game. It's not impossible to win in those circumstances, but it's a lot for an offense to overcome. 

 

I think the idea is that if we sustain any drives in the first quarter we likely eliminate an entire possession from the Bengals. 

Yes 2 x 3 and outs. But outside of the first drive the Bills had drives of 4, 2, 3, and 5. The offense didn't complete a pass after the first drive until there was 1:37 left in the half. That is actually crazy. One 4:00 drive alone shifts the TOP to 27 to 32 minutes.

That is far from needing a perfect game.

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

15 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Now show how many teams won scoring 18 points or less.  In most of those losing efforts where the D gave up 24+ points they had the same thing in common... the offense was not scoring and turning over the football.  A defense can only do so much when the offense keeps putting them back on the field. 

 

I don't care about the clock. The clock changes to be normal ToP with just one 5 minute drive by the offense instead of turning the football over after 14 seconds. Our offense gave them two extra possessions.  Again, the defense stopped the Bengals 6 times.  They scored 3 points the entire second half.  Our offense did nothing until mid 4th quarter.  The game wasn't even close before last min offense.  The offense was the problem this game not the defense. 

 

Now I am done with you because we are just going in circles and you haven't retorted anything.

 

13 times this season a team has won scoring 18 points or fewer. Note I'm using 'team' and not 'offense' so I'm not counting a game like the Jets vs Bills in week 1 where the Jets O scored 16 and had a special teams TD push it to 22. 

 

Our offensive output would give us a 10% chance of winning while our defensive effort would give 5% based on the NFL averages this season. 

 

Neither side of the ball played well enough to deserve a win, but slight edge to the Offense for being just a little bit better than the Defense. ST was bad too 

 

 

[Scott7975]

14 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

13 times this season a team has won scoring 18 points or fewer. Note I'm using 'team' and not 'offense' so I'm not counting a game like the Jets vs Bills in week 1 where the Jets O scored 16 and had a special teams TD push it to 22. 

 

Our offensive output would give us a 10% chance of winning while our defensive effort would give 5% based on the NFL averages this season. 

 

Neither side of the ball played well enough to deserve a win, but slight edge to the Offense for being just a little bit better than the Defense. ST was bad too 

 

 

 

I don't agree with you that offense had the slight edge over defense but yes... ST was bad too.

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Sorry, but the defense did fine.  Fact remains the offense had 6 drives that they could have scored on and did nothing.  You aren't going to win football games if you keep giving the ball back to an elite offense from turnovers and punts.  The offense has to score.  It didn't.  Not the defenses fault.

 

So to recap: DVOA has our offense 3rd best over the past 4 weeks, and our defense dead last over that time frame.

 

I'll admit the analytics and the eye test don't match up to me either, but that's what the data shows.

 

But I think I know where the discrepancy lies between analytics and the eye test. Offense across the league is down. So even though we feel like ours isn't performing as well as we could, neither is any other offense. On the flip side, our defense appears to be doing decently well for the most part, but defenses across the league are performing better than in years past.

 

So I think what's happening is we are comparing the current offense with our 2020/2021 offense, instead of evaluating it in the context of the league as a whole.

 

For one reason or another defenses have found a way to punch back against the offensive explosion this year. They're forcing offenses to grind out long drives with a low margin for error, and we are managing to do that at a top 3 level. But our defense is NOT punching back. We're letting the opposing offense rack up season high metrics against us.

 

Everything in the NFL has to be evaluated within the context of other teams.

 

Edited November 7, 2023 by HappyDays

[Dr. Who]

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

So to recap: DVOA has our offense 3rd best over the past 4 weeks, and our defense dead last over that time frame.

 

I'll admit the analytics and the eye test don't match up to me either, but that's what the data shows.

 

But I think I know where the discrepancy lies between analytics and the eye test. Offense across the league is down. So even though we feel like ours isn't performing as well as we could, neither is any other offense. On the flip side, our defense appears to be doing decently well for the most part, but defenses across the league are performing better than in years past.

 

So I think what's happening is we are comparing the current offense with our 2020/2021 offense, instead of evaluating it in the context of the league as a whole.

 

For one reason or another defenses have found a way to punch back against the offensive explosion this year. They're forcing offenses to grind out long drives with a low margin for error, and we are managing to do that at a top 3 level. But our defense is NOT punching back. We're letting the opposing offense rack up season high metrics against us.

 

Everything in the NFL has to be evaluated within the context of other teams.

 

Plausible. It's still a mess. Sure didn't expect to be focusing on the Sabres this early in the year.

[Jrb1979]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

So to recap: DVOA has our offense 3rd best over the past 4 weeks, and our defense dead last over that time frame.

 

I'll admit the analytics and the eye test don't match up to me either, but that's what the data shows.

 

But I think I know where the discrepancy lies between analytics and the eye test. Offense across the league is down. So even though we feel like ours isn't performing as well as we could, neither is any other offense. On the flip side, our defense appears to be doing decently well for the most part, but defenses across the league are performing better than in years past.

 

So I think what's happening is we are comparing the current offense with our 2020/2021 offense, instead of evaluating it in the context of the league as a whole.

 

For one reason or another defenses have found a way to punch back against the offensive explosion this year. They're forcing offenses to grind out long drives with a low margin for error, and we are managing to do that at a top 3 level. But our defense is NOT punching back. We're letting the opposing offense rack up season high metrics against us.

 

Everything in the NFL has to be evaluated within the context of other teams.

 

If you look at successful drive percentage in the last few weeks, the Bills are 25th. IMO successful drive percentage is better stat to look at then EPA. It's great the offense can move the ball down the field but if you can't score it means very little. 

[BananaB]

3 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Now show how many teams won scoring 18 points or less.  In most of those losing efforts where the D gave up 24+ points they had the same thing in common... the offense was not scoring and turning over the football.  A defense can only do so much when the offense keeps putting them back on the field. 

 

I don't care about the clock. The clock changes to be normal ToP with just one 5 minute drive by the offense instead of turning the football over after 14 seconds. Our offense gave them two extra possessions.  Again, the defense stopped the Bengals 6 times.  They scored 3 points the entire second half.  Our offense did nothing until mid 4th quarter.  The game wasn't even close before last min offense.  The offense was the problem this game not the defense. 

 

Now I am done with you because we are just going in circles and you haven't retorted anything.

You want to blame the offense but you should be blaming the coaches. The same ***** that worked for the O in the 4th quarter was same ***** that worked the first drive. The controlled offense that we have been struggling for weeks was what McD wanted after the Bengals walked down the field on the second drive. Both sides of the ball are struggling. McD is more concerned about the defense being rested than our O scoring points.  The D gave up 3 points in the second half but gave up 21 in the first, they all count. If they did better on the first two drives maybe McD wouldn’t have tried to slow the offense down. 

[Thurman#1]

On 11/6/2023 at 8:55 PM, colin said:

Coming into this game, they showed Allen lead the NFL in TDS, had the highest completion percentage, and top 5 passing yards and rating.

 

After the game, we lead the NFL in epa per offensive drive, and point differential.

 

The bad results and our barely 500 record points to coaching and coaching alone.  This team lacks confidence, has no consistency, and makes the same predictable mistakes over and over.

 

3rd and 10 option routes outside the numbers to midget wrs is insane.  

 

We see our d get smoked by tempo and quick passing vs our zone, so we attack another team playing soft zone with delayed handoffs out of shotgun and slow developing plays.

 

If we miss the playoffs, the whole front office has to go.  If we are one and done in the playoffs, they whole front office has to go, 

 

Frankly, walking papers should have been mass printed after 13 seconds.

 

 

This is the problem with the "it all points to coaching and coaching alone" argument.

 

You don't have a single reason in this post why this is true. Not one data point that shows why the players aren't partially to blame.

 

The whole argument is "the bad results and our barely 500 record points to coaching and coaching alone."

 

Why so?

 

What you're essentially saying is that we're not doing well, so it's obviously the coaching. Which is simply a stupid argument. Carries just as much logical force as the opposite argument, that we're not doing well so it's obviously the players.

 

The coaches absolutely do bear some responsibility. Marino points out the questionable idea of not using more tempo and of attacking Burrow with blitzes. Those are coaching issues.

 

Equally,  he points out drive-stopping plays where Allen threw a bad ball on the INT and threw into tight coverage when there were guys wide open elsewhere. That's a player issue, and he pointed out more such.

 

There's a lot of blame to go around. Everyone deserves some.

[Norcalbillsfan]

7 hours ago, Shanahan's Horseshoe said:

Seems to be a bit of a disagreement between Marino and Turner from cover 1 who I think are the best.  
Turner thinks Dorsey’s scheme is predictable and one note.  Marino says it’s pretty much Josh. After watching Turners criticisms I tended to lean more toward Marino. There are guys open. Josh ain’t seeing them and locking in presnap way too much. 

I agree, I think both are the best in bills media by a long shot. But I tend to side with marino on this one, mainly when you listen to Turners breakdown it's "ya josh should have hit this open reciever here, but..." and I say "but what?" There's open recievers, how can guys scream to fire dorsey when it's there on the tape and im not even a dorsey defender. And Joe does a good job explaining that dorsey does deserve alot of criticism but when you break down the tape the proof is in the pudding, guys are open and josh isn't seeing it or he doesn't want the easy profits and wants to throw it deep.

[HappyDays]

Worth noting:

 

It isn't just us. Every offense is in a lull at times this year. Defenses have figured it out.

[Scott7975]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

So to recap: DVOA has our offense 3rd best over the past 4 weeks, and our defense dead last over that time frame.

 

I'll admit the analytics and the eye test don't match up to me either, but that's what the data shows.

 

But I think I know where the discrepancy lies between analytics and the eye test. Offense across the league is down. So even though we feel like ours isn't performing as well as we could, neither is any other offense. On the flip side, our defense appears to be doing decently well for the most part, but defenses across the league are performing better than in years past.

 

So I think what's happening is we are comparing the current offense with our 2020/2021 offense, instead of evaluating it in the context of the league as a whole.

 

For one reason or another defenses have found a way to punch back against the offensive explosion this year. They're forcing offenses to grind out long drives with a low margin for error, and we are managing to do that at a top 3 level. But our defense is NOT punching back. We're letting the opposing offense rack up season high metrics against us.

 

Everything in the NFL has to be evaluated within the context of other teams.

 

 

Comparatively to 2020 and 2021 yes, offense is down ~5 ppg.  However, compared to last year its only 0.2 difference.

 

As far as defense is concerned, I am not absolving defense.  It has not been good.  They give up a lot of big plays, especially on 3rd and long. They seem to do well on 1st and 2nd down only for that to happen, with the exception of the couple times they also allowed a huge play on 1st at the end of a game.  I just think they did ok this specific week.  Not great but IMO good enough to win against that team had the offense held up it's end of the bargain.  Also they did great against Miami. 

 

Defense at least has some excuse.  Who do we actually have left as difference makers?  I know we have big investments on defense but not necessarily difference makers.  Most of them are out and the others that are close to that seem to get hurt almost every week. Truthfully I am partially disappointed on that point as well. Oliver, Groot, and Floyd should be doing better than they are.  They flashed but seemed to have disappeared.

 

The offense still has Josh and Diggs at minimum.  Kincaid is imo a difference maker but people will use "rookie" if I say that. Cook also can be explosive and how many people here get their panties in a bunch when someone says Davis sucks? Shakir has made plays just about every time he gets the ball yet is an afterthought. This team has far far better weapons than the Chiefs this year. I would argue that Kelce has been hobbled all season and he is old.  Diggs is better than everything they have and I would argue even Davis/Shakir would be their #1 right now.  All that team does is drop footballs.  There is no excuse for this offense to not put up more points.  

 

I've said it before and I will say it again, I don't care what EPA and DVOA show.  This team put up 6 points, 14 points, and 18 points in 3 of the last 5 games.  20 and 24 in the other 2.  There is nothing you can say that would make me believe that is somehow one of the best in the NFL.  Over the last 5 weeks the Bills rank 20th or 24 in PPG (I forgot what I looked up, it was one of those.)  All the analytic stats in the world take a back seat to points.  Points is what wins football games, not some analytically feely good stats.

1 hour ago, BananaB said:

You want to blame the offense but you should be blaming the coaches.

 

I do.  Josh makes some mistakes as do others, but overall I put our offensive slump on the coaches.

Edited November 8, 2023 by Scott7975

[Scott7975]

13 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Worth noting:

 

It isn't just us. Every offense is in a lull at times this year. Defenses have figured it out.

 

That stat isn't even correct. The average is 5.2.  Meaning 15th in the league is 5.2. The same 15th in the league last season was 4.8. That ranges all the way to 7.1 at the top. Last year the top was 6.0. I am not even going to look further if I already found that discrepancy. And again, yards only matter if you put points up.

Edited November 8, 2023 by Scott7975

[Buffalo Barbarian]

On 11/6/2023 at 6:37 AM, VaMilBill said:

Spot on on a lot of items. Only thing I wished he gave us was some recommendations on what the team should do going forward. 

 

Watch Eric Turner on cover one

 

 

[Shanahan's Horseshoe]

10 hours ago, Norcalbillsfan said:

I agree, I think both are the best in bills media by a long shot. But I tend to side with marino on this one, mainly when you listen to Turners breakdown it's "ya josh should have hit this open reciever here, but..." and I say "but what?" There's open recievers, how can guys scream to fire dorsey when it's there on the tape and im not even a dorsey defender. And Joe does a good job explaining that dorsey does deserve alot of criticism but when you break down the tape the proof is in the pudding, guys are open and josh isn't seeing it or he doesn't want the easy profits and wants to throw it deep.

Spot on. 

[colin]

10 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

This is the problem with the "it all points to coaching and coaching alone" argument.

 

You don't have a single reason in this post why this is true. Not one data point that shows why the players aren't partially to blame.

 

The whole argument is "the bad results and our barely 500 record points to coaching and coaching alone."

 

Why so?

 

What you're essentially saying is that we're not doing well, so it's obviously the coaching. Which is simply a stupid argument. Carries just as much logical force as the opposite argument, that we're not doing well so it's obviously the players.

 

The coaches absolutely do bear some responsibility. Marino points out the questionable idea of not using more tempo and of attacking Burrow with blitzes. Those are coaching issues.

 

Equally,  he points out drive-stopping plays where Allen threw a bad ball on the INT and threw into tight coverage when there were guys wide open elsewhere. That's a player issue, and he pointed out more such.

 

There's a lot of blame to go around. Everyone deserves some.

 

nonsense.

 

having such high EPA per drive means the tools are there for success, but the coaching is not delivering.  having predictable play calls is a coaching problem.  having players make the same preventable mistakes in the same situations is a coaching issue -- either coach the player to not make the mistake, or change what you are doing so that tendency isn't as glaring.

 

spacing on routes is a scheme coaching issue.  

 

i'll make it simple if it wasn't before -- if you have capable players and get bad results, you have bad coaching.  if you have less capable players and get good results, you have good coaching.

 

we have plenty of capability on O, same roster even with more talent (Dalton) than the prior season.  our results are much worse, so either all the players forgot how to play, or the coaches are being lame and predictable.  the data points are quite obvious, high epa, same players killed it on o before, current o sucks, even vs weak ds.

 

on d it's maybe even worse.