corta765 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 (edited) So pro football focus has a really cool new tool that allows you to run a simulation of any teams season for 2023. It automatically runs the games through their system and gives a record with stats and grade for the year. It is a beta run so it is not perfect as the Bucs went 13-4 in one I ran for them lol. Most of the Bills simulations landed them between 9-8 and 11-6 which feels fair. There were a few oddities like a 5-11 season where Buffalo lost a ton of one score games, but also 13-4 where they won 9 straight and beat CIN-PHI-KC all in one stretch. Its fun and different, I think as they improve the model it will be better. Anyhoo your probably asking what in gods name does this have to do with the NFL. Well as you simulate through the season you can see the games as they shake out and I got me thinking at how the NFLs greatest asset is its ability to sell hope. You can have a team that is 7-8, but many times you see a team does have that sliver of hope as if they win out they can get a wild card birth or a maybe a division crown. Compared to any other sport the NFL excels with teams "being in the hunt" because regularly a team can go from DOA to a division crown or wild card birth. The flipside and the danger the NFL has to consider is its push to expand games and the playoffs. I would say currently the playoff structure is perfect as roughly 43.75% (14 of 32) make the playoffs and it requires some level of playing well outside of an occasional bad division winner. The number of games though I think would be a mistake to go past 17 even though I know they want 18. The beauty that keeps so many fans interest when you have a 6-7 vs 7-6 matchup is the fact every game matters. There is a tipping point we are not far away from where too many more games will drain the max value you see and the impact of wins or losses. Edited May 24 by corta765 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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