Myth Busters: The Bills Overpay / Roster Too Many Special Teamers

[MJS]

I see this thrown around a lot about the Bills, that they pay their special teamers the most in the league, and especially that they roster too many primary special teams players. They claim that other teams only roster 2 or 3, while the BIlls roster 4 or 5. So, I ran the numbers, because I really didn't know if that was true.

 

For this exercise, I looked at snap percentages for each team. I considered a primary special teamer as a player who played approximately 30% or more of the total special teams snaps for the team and who had less than 15% total snaps for either offense or defense. I also removed Kickers, Punters, and Long Snappers, because every team needs those specialists and their roster spots are guaranteed. I then recorded the 2022 cap hit for each of those players (from overthecap.com) to see how teams compared in both the number of primary special teamers and the cap hits associated with them. Here are the results for the Bills:

 

 

For the league:

 

Findings:

- There were 16 teams who rostered more primary special teams players than the Bills. This includes good teams like the Bengals, Cowboys, 49ers, Eagles, and Chargers, plus our divisional opponents in the Jets and Dolphins. The average was 5.5 players, so the Bills were just below average in the number of these types of players rostered (Myth Busted!)

- Five teams spend more than the Bills in total for these players: Steelers, Texans, Jaguars, Bengals, and Vikings.

- The Bills ranked 3rd in the cap hit per player for these primary special teams players at $1.68 million. The Steelers and Texans pay more per player. (Myth Kinda Busted. They pay their teamers well, just not the most in the league)

 

Here are the top cap hits in the league for primary special teamers in 2022. The Bills had 2 in the top 15. The Taxans and Steelers also had multiple:

 

 

In conclusion: the Bills do not roster too many primary special teams players. In fact, many teams roster more. The Bills are on the lower end. But, the Bills DO pay their special teamers well, with two teamers in the top 15 of the league (in 2022, at least). And the results can be seen in the Bills fielding one of the best, or the best, special teams units in the league. Joe Marino from Locked on Bills did an analysis awhile back looking at super bowl winning teams and found that most of them had good special teams units. There were a few outliers, but having a top 5 special teams unit is one of those marks of a good team, and even a super bowl contender.

 

Edited March 14, 2023 by MJS

[Rc2catch]

Solid work 👍

[BillsFan130]

I think the important stat is “cap hit per special teams players”.

 

So the bills are 3rd? Which is what I think a lot of us were saying, that they pay their special teamers well.

 

The Joe Marino research also had a ton of flaws in it. It goes back to the old “causation vs correlation “.

 

New England won a ton of Super Bowls and always had good special teams which spiked up the “averages”.

 

Did NE win Super Bowls cause of Tom Brady, or did they win because of good special teams? Let’s be honest here lol.

 

Tom Brady won a SB in tampa with the 25th ranked special teams 

Edited March 14, 2023 by BillsFan130

[billsfan89]

I have no problem with the Bills ST spending, ST is an important part of the game and represents about 20% of snaps in an NFL game. Having 3-5 good core ST players beyond the long snapper, punter and kicker specialists allows you to have a strong ST unit and play well during a critical 20% of the game. 

[Warcodered]

14 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

I think the important stat is “cap hit per special teams players”.

 

So the bills are 3rd? Which is what I think a lot of us were saying, that they pay their special teamers well.

 

The Joe Marino research also had a ton of flaws in it. It goes back to the old “causation vs correlation “.

 

New England won a ton of Super Bowls and always had good special teams which spiked up the “averages”.

 

Did NE win Super Bowls cause of Tom Brady, or did they win because of good special teams? Let’s be honest here lol.

 

Tom Brady won a SB in tampa with the 25th ranked special teams 

Why don't you look at the number directly below the Bills Total cap hit and tell me if it's bigger or smaller, and maybe consider that this list isn't in order by Total cap hit.

[BillsFan130]

3 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Why don't you look at the number directly below the Bills Total cap hit and tell me if it's bigger or smaller, and maybe consider that this list isn't in order by Total cap hit.

I was looking at the cap hit per special teams player, which they are 3rd.

 

For total cap hit, looks about 6th if I’m reading it right.

 

Which is still high on a team that’s tight against the cap IMO

Edited March 14, 2023 by BillsFan130

[Punching Bag]

32 minutes ago, MJS said:

I see this thrown around a lot about the Bills, that they pay their special teamers the most in the league, and especially that they roster too many primary special teams players. They claim that other teams only roster 2 or 3, while the BIlls roster 4 or 5. So, I ran the numbers, because I really didn't know if that was true.

 

Don't confuse irrational ranters with facts.

8 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

I have no problem with the Bills ST spending, ST is an important part of the game and represents about 20% of snaps in an NFL game. Having 3-5 good core ST players beyond the long snapper, punter and kicker specialists allows you to have a strong ST unit and play well during a critical 20% of the game. 

 

But I read that in this forum that special teams players should be UDFAs right out of college when they cannot just elevate PS players.

Some would cut number of players on special teams kickoff teams for any kicker should be able to kick a ball out end of field and save slots.

[MJS]

Some other interesting things I noticed:

 

Baltimore has excellent special teams, but they use a lot of their starters and veterans on special teams. So, even though they are low on the above table, it's because they are having their guys take a larger role than average on special teams. This made me think of their injury issues rhe last couple of years. Are they taxing their starters too much?

 

On the other side of the coin you have the Giants, who also had a lot of their starters and role players contributing on special teams. Why? Because they were a team deficient in talent. I think on most teams some of those special teams guys would not be contributing on offense and defense. Daboll did a good job of maximizing everyone's talent, similar to McDermott in his first year.

1 hour ago, BillsFan130 said:

I think the important stat is “cap hit per special teams players”.

 

So the bills are 3rd? Which is what I think a lot of us were saying, that they pay their special teamers well.

 

The Joe Marino research also had a ton of flaws in it. It goes back to the old “causation vs correlation “.

 

New England won a ton of Super Bowls and always had good special teams which spiked up the “averages”.

 

Did NE win Super Bowls cause of Tom Brady, or did they win because of good special teams? Let’s be honest here lol.

 

Tom Brady won a SB in tampa with the 25th ranked special teams 

Tampa Bay was one of the outliers.

 

To me, having good special teams is caused by the following: having good coaches, having a talented roster, having continuity in core contributors, and being willing to invest some money in it.

 

Some of those things also contribute to having a good team overall, and being a playoff contender every year.

 

I don't think anyone thinks good special teams causes you to be a superbowl contender. But it certainly helps when one or two possessions or a few yards here and there make a difference, which it often does.

[BillsFan130]

5 minutes ago, MJS said:

Some other interesting things I noticed:

 

Baltimore has excellent special teams, but they use a lot of their starters and veterans on special teams. So, even though they are low on the above table, it's because they are having their guys take a larger role than average on special teams. This made me think of their injury issues rhe last couple of years. Are they taxing their starters too much?

 

On the other side of the coin you have the Giants, who also had a lot of their starters and role players contributing on special teams. Why? Because they were a team deficient in talent. I think on most teams some of those special teams guys would not be contributing on offense and defense. Daboll did a good job of maximizing everyone's talent, similar to McDermott in his first year.

Tampa Bay was one of the outliers.

 

To me, having good special teams is caused by the following: having good coaches, having a talented roster, having continuity in core contributors, and being willing to invest some money in it.

 

Some of those things also contribute to having a good team overall, and being a playoff contender every year.

 

I don't think anyone thinks good special teams causes you to be a superbowl contender. But it certainly helps when one or two possessions or a few yards here and there make a difference, which it often does.

Do you think it really matters if you make Mahomes/Burrow start at the 12-17 yard line instead of the 20-25 though? I don’t whats so ever.

 

The way I see it: Have a good kicker, and just don’t be “incompetent “ at kick/punt coverage.

 

Even though I disagree with your points, I appreciate the research/time you put into this.

[MJS]

2 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Do you think it really matters if you make Mahomes/Burrow start at the 12-17 yard line instead of the 20-25 though? I don’t whats so ever.

 

The way I see it: Have a good kicker, and just don’t be “incompetent “ at kick/punt coverage.

 

Even though I disagree with your points, I appreciate the research/time you put into this.

Special teams contributes stolen possessions too. If you can cause a turnover, or block a punt, etc. Or return one for a TD. Even just a long return that starts your offense in field goal range. That can swing a game. Those big plays really make an impact.

 

Yes, they don't happen all the time, but they happen enough to make a difference, even if you don't see the value in hidden yardage (which I think most coaches would disagree with you anyway on that).

[C.Biscuit97]

Just kidding. Well research post. Still wish we kept Hodgins over a STer though. 

[Punching Bag]

3 minutes ago, MJS said:

Special teams contributes stolen possessions too. If you can cause a turnover, or block a punt, etc. Or return one for a TD. Even just a long return that starts your offense in field goal range. That can swing a game. Those big plays really make an impact.

 

Yes, they don't happen all the time, but they happen enough to make a difference, even if you don't see the value in hidden yardage (which I think most coaches would disagree with you anyway on that).

Exactly.  Bills used to have players who made significant difference in games.  Steve Tasker and Pike were a pair who teams had to prepare for . Pike often got three players blocking him. Teams had whole game plans to neutralize Tasker resorting him into doing things like running out of bounds and back in to get past blockers who were preventing him from getting to kick returner and he managed to do it anyways.  

 

We had some really good special teams during drought (i.e. Moorman) but usually special teams are not the difference between playoffs or not unless you are on the cusp of playoffs.

[BillsFan130]

16 minutes ago, MJS said:

Special teams contributes stolen possessions too. If you can cause a turnover, or block a punt, etc. Or return one for a TD. Even just a long return that starts your offense in field goal range. That can swing a game. Those big plays really make an impact.

 

Yes, they don't happen all the time, but they happen enough to make a difference, even if you don't see the value in hidden yardage (which I think most coaches would disagree with you anyway on that).

In the regular season when it’s a grind and you make more mistakes, sure.

But in the playoffs when teams are more focused, how often does a punt block really happen? If it does the odd time, I would chalk it up as more luck as it’s very rare.

 

Hidden yardage in the regular season against bad QBs ? Sure that would help.

But When you play the elite QBs, 5-8 yards makes very little difference IMO and I respectfully think that’s a very old school/outdated way of thinking . 
 

The rules favour the offence and 5-8 yards for elite QBs is absolutely nothing. 

 

 

Edited March 14, 2023 by BillsFan130

[MJS]

Well, I think we can all agree that it sucks to be the Steelers, who are paying by far the most money to special teamers and had the 27th ranked special teams unit. If you are going to pay so much, you have to at least be good at it. Terrible job by them.

 

The Vikings are paying as much as the Bills and had the 30th ranked unit. Really poor.

[somnus00]

Very informative. A lot of very good work went into this, though I'm not sure it's myth busting. Seems to show the Bills are near the top in special teams spending.

 

I'm not saying I disagree entirely with the Bills approach. The super bowl winners tend to be near top 5 in special teams each year.

[Billsflyer12]

Nice work, but the bigger point is does it matter?  The Bills clearly emphasize special teams, why?
 

Bills and Cowboys only 2 teams in playoffs final 8 teams in the top 10 special teams DOVA, and the Cowboys were 10th.

 

Final 4 teams in playoffs special teams DOVA

 

Eagles - 13th

49ers - 15th

Bengals - 18th

Chiefs - 19th

 

Seems they keep focusing on a bad investment.

Edited March 14, 2023 by Billsflyer12

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

Nice work, but the bigger point is does it matter?  The Bills clearly emphasize special teams, why?
 

Bills and Cowboys only 2 teams in playoffs final 8 teams in the top 10 special teams DOVA, and the Cowboys were 10th.

 

Final 4 teams in playoffs special teams DOVA

 

Eagles - 13th

49ers - 15th

Bengals - 18th

Chiefs - 19th

 

 

Yeah but what about the Texans and Jaguars?    Gotta' keep up with them.

 

It's funny how we have these myth busters who create these posts that only re-inforce the reality that they are trying to mythologize.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Interesting stats.  I do think ST is more important than many think and this also show the Bills are devoting around the same amount of resources as other teams.

 

Everyone keeps bringing up keeping Kumerow over Hodgins, but also stated many times Hodgins didn't play ST so  even if he were kept, likely he'd have not been activated on Sunday anyway.  While Kumerow played a big role on ST, he also on rare occasions was used as a WR when called upon.  From that standpoint, the one guy on the Bills I'd like to see them not bring back as T Jones as he's never used for anything but ST

[DieHardBillsFan]

How many team pay an exclusive long snapper? Pretty sure that is low. Add that money and Bills pay the most and have more than avg ST players.

Edited March 14, 2023 by DieHardBillsFan

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

13 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

Nice work, but the bigger point is does it matter?  The Bills clearly emphasize special teams, why?
 

Bills and Cowboys only 2 teams in playoffs final 8 teams in the top 10 special teams DOVA, and the Cowboys were 10th.

 

Final 4 teams in playoffs special teams DOVA

 

Eagles - 13th

49ers - 15th

Bengals - 18th

Chiefs - 19th

 

Seems they keep focusing on a bad investment.

 

Actually the Bengals spent more money and 49er's almost as much as the Bills.  So actually it's more a case of those teams making bad player or coaching choices as the money hasn't helped them.

 

KC certainly has spent very little, but now down to only two outliers so have to question if more to the story with them.

 

There's also many teams with bad records AND bad ST rankings so that would just as easily say it's a good investment; NO, Indy, Tenn, Denver,