Good article by Bruce Nolan re: Beane's draft capital expenditure since 2018

[Matt_In_NH]

52 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Seriously?  LOL  Come on now ... 

 

OK, put whatever numbers you want from his contract to it and change them, then ask yourself the same question.  In fact, let's say Diggs for the 5 year $72M contract he originally signed with Minny.  In fact let's say $10M/season for Diggs.  

 

Which is better?  

 

Jefferson 4 years for $15M 

Diggs 4 years for $40M  

 

My position has not changed one iota.  Even at even money I'm taking Jefferson, but it's nowhere near even and when they made the trade Beane obviously knew it.  Everyone knew that we would have to restructure and it was going to cost us more.  Diggs had the leverage and I'm sure that it was discussed between his agent and Beane.  

 

 

So was it 96 or 40????   What a clown

[PBF81]

22 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

So was it 96 or 40????   What a clown

 

Clown?  LOL  You're making a great case for the starting role.  

 

Sounds like you think that Diggs at two or three much less 6 times the price is the better overall option over a better player.  

 

Noted.   

[Matt_In_NH]

3 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Clown?  LOL  You're making a great case for the starting role.  

 

Sounds like you think that Diggs at two or three much less 6 times the price is the better overall option over a better player.  

 

Noted.   

Only a clown would say that

[78thealltimegreat]

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

And as I've mentioned a bunch of times, imagine Allen on some of those former teams, or with Lynch/Jackson for example.  No question we'd have made the playoffs back then, possibly even unseated the Pats on occasion.  

 

McBeane are fortunate that they hit on that.  Nothing else that they've done would have even gotten us a wild card.  This team without Allen would have been low end for what we had from '96 - '17.  

Well said 

[Gunsgoodtime]

On 2/23/2023 at 9:32 PM, Matt_In_NH said:

I would like to see what it looks like if you count Diggs as a first round pick which is kind of what that was.  

The problem with this mentality is that Diggs was a proven player, known by all football fans and was paid as such.  He was not a draft pick.  Beane is horrible at drafting and has not drafted a talent outside of Allen on par with Diggs.  Think about all the 1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks blown on awful talent, which has put us where we are today, heading into a season with feelings of possibly not winning the division with Josh Allen as your QB. The Jets and Dolphins have basically caught up to Buffalo even without real QBs, the Chiefs and Bengals have passed them, with Chiefs having 11 picks this year and the Bengals have far superior talent on offense compared to the Bills, it does not look like that will change.  If I was to tell you that Beane and McDermott was not able to make the Suberbowl with Josh Allen at QB and a top 5 defense would you want to hire them?  Absolutely not

Edited February 25, 2023 by Gunsgoodtime

[Straight Hucklebuck]

11 hours ago, DJB said:

It’s why i unfollowed those guys. They are knob riding in an attempt to get Bills credentials or something. 
 

How anyone can argue we need more investments on D is absurd

10 hours ago, Mango said:

We know we haven’t invested much in the draft on OL. We’ve largely used FA. In terms of cost, Beane inherited the 30th most expensive (2nd cheapest) OL in 2018. He then went out and spent the 12th, 3rd, 5th, and 20th most in pure cap dollars. None of that bothers me…except for the fact that we’ve never had the 3rd or 5th best line in football. In fact I don’t find any of them remarkably better or worse than any of the others. And this paired drafting RB’s we either don’t like or use over and over again in the 2nd, 3rd, and 3rd rounds is why we’re talking about what this 2023 Buffalo Bills team might or might not be. 

If we do the same on DL, Beane inherited the 10th most expensive line in 2018. Then went on to make it the most expensive 2 years in a row, followed by the 2nd most in 21. It was 17th this year. But 2023 we currently have the 3rd most expensive DL. Then add in AJE, Basham, Rousseau, Philips, Oliver. It’s insane. 

 

I think part of being a good leader is providing enough support and freedom to fail. The Pegulas have certainly done that here. Beane has been allowed to allocate as many resources in draft and cash as he wants to both units. He’s allocated more than most if not all of his counterparts around the league.

 

If I invested as much time and capital in a project as Beane has into both lines and this was the return I got, I’d be on a very very short leash. Likely put on a PIP. 

 

 

Man, awesome posts here DBJ and Mango.

 

This team has subpar skill talent. 
 

The 2nd Round has stalled this teams trajectory.

 

Cody Ford was picked over AJ Brown and DK Metcalf. That is a disaster of a pick. 
 

And Debo Samuel was picked a few picks before Ford.

 

So to come out of that draft with Oliver and Ford, when it easily could have been Simmons and AJ Brown, wow.

 

 

Edited February 25, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Thurman#1]

On 2/24/2023 at 8:07 AM, LABILLBACKER said:

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2023/2/23/23611065/predicting-buffalo-bills-succession-problems-through-draft-capital-expenditure-research

 

Staggering numbers in the WR, TE and OL categories.  You take away the swing and miss on Ford and the OL % dips below 3.  Just an indictment on what happens when your defensive HC gets in the ear of your GM. 

 

 

Those aren't staggering numbers. And TE is a perfect example of why. What you need is enough players to play well. At TE we've run a one-TE system and we've got one who's really good. They're fine there. WR, too. We've got Diggs at WR. The fact we didn't get him by drafting him is beside the point.

 

Nolan put these numbers together not to say that on the face of them they are good or bad. Doing that just doesn't make a lot of sense. Those numbers, if high, don't matter if the position area sucks. Nor does it matter if they're low if the position area is in good shape.

 

Nolan's use of those numbers, as a thought experiment to predict which position areas might have succession issues in the future, is valid and thoughtful. 

 

Whereas just looking at the numbers and deciding they're good or bad is not.

 

The NFL isn't a draft-only league. There are a lot of ways to bring in talent.

 

They're interesting numbers. Not staggering whatsoever. They do indeed look to have had an impact, but they don't have a perfect congruence with areas that have problems now or look to in the future.

 

RB, for example, has had a lot of draft investment, but might easily need another body, especially if Singletary gets a higher-level offer than we're willing to give.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

 

Man, awesome posts here DBJ and Mango.

 

This team has subpar skill talent. 
 

The 2nd Round has stalled this teams trajectory.

 

Cody Ford was picked over AJ Brown and DK Metcalf. That is a disaster of a pick. 
 

And Debo Samuel was picked a few picks before Ford.

 

So to come out of that draft with Oliver and Ford, when it easily could have been Simmons and AJ Brown, wow.

 

 

 

 

Oh, please.

 

This team doesn't have subpar skill talent. Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox alone get them up to about average. That's nonsense. 

 

Could we use some more skill talent? Sure, yeah, but so could pretty much every team out there. I think all of us would like to see another guy or two at WR, but that doesn't mean we're subpar now at the skill positions.

 

And yeah, you can go back and criticize most picks in NFL draft history by showing someone good they could have picked instead. You can also go back and look at your lottery picks and say, "See, if you'd just picked 21-17-43-29-3-9 you'd have been a multi-millionaire." Of course hindsight is better, who ever said it wasn't.

 

That doesn't mean that the GM isn't responsible for bad picks. He is. He is also worthy of credit for good picks. What is full of crap is the "but he could have had this guy" stuff. Anyone with a draft chart can play that game with 99% of NFL picks in history, including most of the good ones.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

The problem with this mentality is that Diggs was a proven player, known by all football fans and was paid as such.  He was not a draft pick.  Beane is horrible at drafting and has not drafted a talent outside of Allen on par with Diggs.  Think about all the 1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks blown on awful talent, which has put us where we are today, heading into a season with feelings of possibly not winning the division with Josh Allen as your QB. The Jets and Dolphins have basically caught up to Buffalo even without real QBs, the Chiefs and Bengals have passed them, with Chiefs having 11 picks this year and the Bengals have far superior talent on offense compared to the Bills, it does not look like that will change.  If I was to tell you that Beane and McDermott was not able to make the Suberbowl with Josh Allen at QB and a top 5 defense would you want to hire them?  Absolutely not

 

 

Yeah, Diggs was not a draft pick. Yeah, he was obtained by using draft picks. He belongs in the conversation here. At the very least because we had fewer draft picks to use to obtain talent after getting Diggs. That must be noted in any discussion of what the Bills have gotten from their draft haul.

 

If you were to tell me that Beane and McDermott were not able to make the Super Bowl with Josh Allen at QB and a top 5 defense, I would tell you first that you're full of crap unless you can see the future, and second that there are too many other variables to make a statement like that, and third that there are plenty of really good teams that had trouble breaking all the way through early that then had Lombardis come their way.

 

We are indeed heading into a season where we might not win our division. So is every single other team in the league, whoever their QB is. Regardless, Vegas has the Bills at about -300 to win the division next year. Anything's possible, but you're a lot more worried about this than most. Dolphins at +350, Jets at +1200 and Pats at +1600. Get off the waaam-bulance.

 

This is a three-loss team that had draft picks as more than half of their starters. They've had two or three picks we can all agree were bad. So has every single other team in the league during that stretch, but certainly the Bills have what we can now all see are a few bad picks and a few more that might be. They have also had quite a few unequivocally fine picks that you folks never seem to bring up, guys like Taron Johnson, Dawson Knox, Milano, Bass and Jackson, and again quite a few that might be soon.

 

And they have a draft handicap that none of you folks wants to talk about ... we've been good enough under this regime that we're always drafting late. Except for the triple trade-up to get Allen and Edmunds, this team has had one pick higher than #23. That leaves you with lower chances in every round.

 

Despite that, they've put together an excellent roster.

 

 

[John from Riverside]

13-3

[OldTimer1960]

35 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, Diggs was not a draft pick. Yeah, he was obtained by using draft picks. He belongs in the conversation here. At the very least because we had fewer draft picks to use to obtain talent after getting Diggs. That must be noted in any discussion of what the Bills have gotten from their draft haul.

 

If you were to tell me that Beane and McDermott were not able to make the Super Bowl with Josh Allen at QB and a top 5 defense, I would tell you first that you're full of crap unless you can see the future, and second that there are too many other variables to make a statement like that, and third that there are plenty of really good teams that had trouble breaking all the way through early that then had Lombardis come their way.

 

We are indeed heading into a season where we might not win our division. So is every single other team in the league, whoever their QB is. Regardless, Vegas has the Bills at about -300 to win the division next year. Anything's possible, but you're a lot more worried about this than most. Dolphins at +350, Jets at +1200 and Pats at +1600. Get off the waaam-bulance.

 

This is a three-loss team that had draft picks as more than half of their starters. They've had two or three picks we can all agree were bad. So has every single other team in the league during that stretch, but certainly the Bills have what we can now all see are a few bad picks and a few more that might be. They have also had quite a few unequivocally fine picks that you folks never seem to bring up, guys like Taron Johnson, Dawson Knox, Milano, Bass and Jackson, and again quite a few that might be soon.

 

And they have a draft handicap that none of you folks wants to talk about ... we've been good enough under this regime that we're always drafting late. Except for the triple trade-up to get Allen and Edmunds, this team has had one pick higher than #23. That leaves you with lower chances in every round.

 

Despite that, they've put together an excellent roster.

 

 

But, but, but I wanna be outraged!

 

Excellent post.  

[whorlnut]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, Diggs was not a draft pick. Yeah, he was obtained by using draft picks. He belongs in the conversation here. At the very least because we had fewer draft picks to use to obtain talent after getting Diggs. That must be noted in any discussion of what the Bills have gotten from their draft haul.

 

If you were to tell me that Beane and McDermott were not able to make the Super Bowl with Josh Allen at QB and a top 5 defense, I would tell you first that you're full of crap unless you can see the future, and second that there are too many other variables to make a statement like that, and third that there are plenty of really good teams that had trouble breaking all the way through early that then had Lombardis come their way.

 

We are indeed heading into a season where we might not win our division. So is every single other team in the league, whoever their QB is. Regardless, Vegas has the Bills at about -300 to win the division next year. Anything's possible, but you're a lot more worried about this than most. Dolphins at +350, Jets at +1200 and Pats at +1600. Get off the waaam-bulance.

 

This is a three-loss team that had draft picks as more than half of their starters. They've had two or three picks we can all agree were bad. So has every single other team in the league during that stretch, but certainly the Bills have what we can now all see are a few bad picks and a few more that might be. They have also had quite a few unequivocally fine picks that you folks never seem to bring up, guys like Taron Johnson, Dawson Knox, Milano, Bass and Jackson, and again quite a few that might be soon.

 

And they have a draft handicap that none of you folks wants to talk about ... we've been good enough under this regime that we're always drafting late. Except for the triple trade-up to get Allen and Edmunds, this team has had one pick higher than #23. That leaves you with lower chances in every round.

 

Despite that, they've put together an excellent roster.

 

 

I honestly think our “excellent roster” argument has been overblown. In theory it SHOULD BE good, but there are holes everywhere. Our oline is a disaster. The WR depth is horrendous. The dline has first and second round picks all over it but we can’t sack the qb in the biggest moments. The secondary gives up too much. I just think we were all brainwashed into thinking this roster was “loaded” and we fail to recognize it really wasn’t after all, except for Allen, Diggs, and a few others. 
 

I’ll say this…the secondary is mainly on the coaching philosophies. They play way too far off the ball and allow the opposing offense easy throws so some of this argument is on coaching. 

[26TrapDraw]

14 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

There are very good TE prospects in this draft.  We’ve seen for a few years now how much Travis Kelce means to KC and George Kittle to SF.  A really good TE can help in the run and pass game. 

Knox is good enough . We can’t waste a tight end pick when our interior Oline is an absolute Dumpster fire. If he signs sone Oline free agents leading up to the draft then great. I’m just saying as it stands TE even if it’s a future hall of gamer isn’t the top of my priority list. This present window will slam shut in the next 2 years they way it’s built now so if want to win a Super Bowl they need to fix the Oline Dline and secondary. IMHO.

[OldTimer1960]

6 minutes ago, BeefCurtns said:

Knox is good enough . We can’t waste a tight end pick when our interior Oline is an absolute Dumpster fire. If he signs sone Oline free agents leading up to the draft then great. I’m just saying as it stands TE even if it’s a future hall of gamer isn’t the top of my priority list. This present window will slam shut in the next 2 years they way it’s built now so if want to win a Super Bowl they need to fix the Oline Dline and secondary. IMHO.

I agree that I would prefer OL help, but who on the IOL will be available when they pick that is worth that investment?  If O’cyrus Torrence doesn’t fit their OL scheme, who do you take?  

[RyanC883]

I'd be one thing if the defensive drafting returned.  Instead, you over-draft Groot and Basham in the same draft, passing on IOL.  The year prior, you pick AJ, another bust.  Then drafting average RBs in the 3rd rather than OL, DL, or WR.  Just crazy.  

[RyanC883]

On 2/25/2023 at 9:49 AM, OldTimer1960 said:

I agree that I would prefer OL help, but who on the IOL will be available when they pick that is worth that investment?  If O’cyrus Torrence doesn’t fit their OL scheme, who do you take?  

 

easy.  In the 1st, you take the Center from Minn (if he is still there).  Then you can even get Patterson from ND in the 2nd.  Or trade back and get Patterson in the 2nd.  Here are some places to find IOL rankings/reviews.  

 

https://walterfootball.com/draft2023OG.php

https://walterfootball.com/draft2023C.php

 

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/positions/OL/1/2023

 

[uticaclub]

On 2/25/2023 at 2:27 AM, John from Riverside said:

13-3

And embarassed in the playoffs

[Dopey]

On 2/23/2023 at 7:54 PM, atlbillsfan1975 said:

I really hope Beane and McD agree on what players they want. Bills don’t have the luxury anymore of the slow development model for rookies. The philosophy on the team needs to evolve to developing youth on the field so they are ready for the playoffs.  I fear it won’t though, since I’ve heard McD talk about the rookie wall regarding players like Groot… At very least allow the rookies to work way into starting lineup through the year if worried about load management like they did w/ James Cook. 

I believe Benford started game 1 and Elam had his share of starts early. Our starting punter was a rookie. I wouldn’t start Cook over Singletary to begin the year. Not on a SB contending team.
Not counting Cook, that’s 3 rookies who either started from game 1 or early in the year.  And that’s on a SB contender that is deep. 

These rookies were coached up and played when staff felt it was time. To the tune of a 13-3 record. Also 4-3 in the playoffs the past 3 years. 

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, uticaclub said:

And embarassed in the playoffs

They won one game
They lost one game

If people are ready to dump coaches, after successful seasons, they deserve what they get

[uticaclub]

4 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

They won one game
They lost one game

If people are ready to dump coaches, after successful seasons, they deserve what they get

This isn't the 2006 Buffalo Bills. Making the playoffs is no longer the goal. We've lost in the playoffs for the same reason 4 years in a row, you can tell the players aren't bought into "the process" as they once were, and the roster is full of holes. Yes, we have Allen and will be good with him, but we cannot be truly great unless changes are made. If you think last season as successful, we have different options.