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The best and worst contracts for Veteran QBs


cage

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Interesting article from the Athletic.  I'll highlight the categories and rankings.  This only focuses on veteran contracts, so QBS on rookie deals are excluded from this assessment.  Beane strikes again!

https://theathletic.com/3661732/2022/10/10/nfl-best-worst-qb-contracts-list/

 

Group 1:   We know what we are getting, it is amazing, and these deals promote team flexibility so we can build a championship contender for long term.

- Josh Allen

- Patrick Mahomes

 

Group 2:  We know what we are getting, it is mostly amazing, but the marriage is not perfect and this deal could put us behind the 8-ball quickly

- Aaron Rodgers

 

Group 3:  We know what we are getting, it is mostly amazing, but there’s significant pain in 2023 almost no matter what happens

- Tom Brady

 

Group 4:  We know what we are getting, it is pretty good, and we maintain flexibility beyond this season.

- Derek Carr

 

Group 5:  We know what we are getting, it is pretty good, but these deals limit team flexibility significantly.

- Matthew Stafford

- Kirk Cousins

 

Group 6:  We see elite upside with our quarterbacks, but there also are questions about what we are getting, and we’re in big trouble if our guy doesn’t play like a Tier 1-2 QB moving forward.

- Deshaun Watson

- Russell Wilson

- Kyler Murray

- Dak Prescott

 

Group 7:   We know what we are getting, it is just OK, and these deals carry mild to moderate pain in 2023 if we move on after this season, which it looks like we might do.

- Jared Goff

- Matt Ryan

- Ryan Tannehill

- Jameis Winston

 

Group 8:  We know what we are getting, it is just OK, but we can move on painlessly after this season, which people think we might do

- Jimmy Garoppolo

- Geno Smith

 

Group 9:  What we are getting is significantly flawed, but at least we can get out after this year without pain (and we likely will)

- Carson Wentz

- Marcus Mariota

- Baker Mayfield

Edited by cage
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6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I think copying the full thing might come with copyright restrictions. Maybe just include the Allen bit then the names of who is in the other groups?

 

EDIT: it is a good article though. Read it yesterday. V interesting.

 

Fair point... edited!

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To be gsir, Tampa and Tams won their SuperBowls with their QB contracts. Yes they may not look great now but they got their Championship.

Dak and Wilson have two of the worst coaches in NFL

San Fran has a championsip roster. Overspending at the QB position for 1 year insurance may also net them a ring.

 

Beane has some interesting choices coming up. Oliver, Edmunds, and Davis will all be coming due soon. There are options with each. He can tag Edmunds, force Oliver to play on the 5th year extension as he did Edmunds and he can try and extend Davis now or tag him in 2024. Its great to have all these good to great players to potentially bring back. Guys like Epenesa, Hyde, Singletary are just going to have to let walk and rebuild through draft.

And that still leaves Poyer....

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3 hours ago, cage said:

Interesting article from the Athletic.  I'll highlight the categories and rankings.  This only focuses on veteran contracts, so QBS on rookie deals are excluded from this assessment.  Beane strikes again!

https://theathletic.com/3661732/2022/10/10/nfl-best-worst-qb-contracts-list/

 

Group 1:   We know what we are getting, it is amazing, and these deals promote team flexibility so we can build a championship contender for long term.

- Josh Allen

- Patrick Mahomes

 

Group 2:  We know what we are getting, it is mostly amazing, but the marriage is not perfect and this deal could put us behind the 8-ball quickly

- Aaron Rodgers

 

Group 3:  We know what we are getting, it is mostly amazing, but there’s significant pain in 2023 almost no matter what happens

- Tom Brady

 

Group 4:  We know what we are getting, it is pretty good, and we maintain flexibility beyond this season.

- Derek Carr

 

Group 5:  We know what we are getting, it is pretty good, but these deals limit team flexibility significantly.

- Matthew Stafford

- Kirk Cousins

 

Group 6:  We see elite upside with our quarterbacks, but there also are questions about what we are getting, and we’re in big trouble if our guy doesn’t play like a Tier 1-2 QB moving forward.

- Deshaun Watson

- Russell Wilson

- Kyler Murray

- Dak Prescott

 

Group 7:   We know what we are getting, it is just OK, and these deals carry mild to moderate pain in 2023 if we move on after this season, which it looks like we might do.

- Jared Goff

- Matt Ryan

- Ryan Tannehill

- Jameis Winston

 

Group 8:  We know what we are getting, it is just OK, but we can move on painlessly after this season, which people think we might do

- Jimmy Garoppolo

- Geno Smith

 

Group 9:  What we are getting is significantly flawed, but at least we can get out after this year without pain (and we likely will)

- Carson Wentz

- Marcus Mariota

- Baker Mayfield

Sorry but David Carr is not a top starting QB in this league,  cannot make plays for his team when really needed. 

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20 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I don’t think he’s elite but he’s a good QB.  He’s an upper mid tier QB….in the 10-12 range IMO.

 

 

Part of having the most comebacks is being down so often to begin with to have to comeback...my question is what are you not doing the other 3.5 quarters that require these comebacks so frequently?

 

Allen's comebacks are limited because he typically buries teams early on.

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2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Part of having the most comebacks is being down so often to begin with to have to comeback...my question is what are you not doing the other 3.5 quarters that require these comebacks so frequently?

 

Allen's comebacks are limited because he typically buries teams early on.

 

I mean you can't blow out every team.  Here are the Top 5 in 4th Quarter comebacks in NFL history.  It's a good stat to be a top one in.

 

1. Peyton Manning

2. Tom Brady

3. Big Ben

4. Drew Brees

5. Matt Ryan

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5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I mean you can't blow out every team.  Here are the Top 5 in 4th Quarter comebacks in NFL history.  It's a good stat to be a top one in.

 

1. Peyton Manning

2. Tom Brady

3. Big Ben

4. Drew Brees

5. Matt Ryan

I hate the comeback stat, why are you down that often?  Was it your team sucks and you are putting them on your back at the end of the game OR were you ineffective all game and this is just correcting for it?   For Carr it’sA bit of a combo.  The others on that too 5 list played for 187 years combined, so it’s kind of expected to have more opportunities.   Who was Brady behind all those years?

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Just now, DCofNC said:

I hate the comeback stat, why are you down that often?  Was it your team sucks and you are putting them on your back at the end of the game OR were you ineffective all game and this is just correcting for it?   For Carr it’sA bit of a combo.  The others on that too 5 list played for 187 years combined, so it’s kind of expected to have more opportunities.   Who was Brady behind all those years?

 

Do you honestly think that every single time you have a 4th quarter comeback, it means your were ineffective in the 1st 3 quarters?  What if you're in a shoot out or your defense isn't playing well.

 

Here's a single season list of 4th quarter QB's.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/comebacks_single_season.htm

 

The Colts went 14-2 that year, 2009 and went to the Super Bowl.  Manning had 7 4th quarter comebacks.  Was he ineffective in the first 3 quarters in those 7 games?

 

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14 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

One important additional tier:

 

Group 10: We haven't paid him yet, it was a huge mistake, and now we're going to have to overpay:

Lamar Jackson

Hindsights 20/20, but the Ravens should have paid him last off-season before or right after Josh got paid. These QB contracts are only going in one direction and Cleveland's massive overpay for Deshawn Watson really messed up everything. 

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On 10/11/2022 at 9:59 AM, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Do you honestly think that every single time you have a 4th quarter comeback, it means your were ineffective in the 1st 3 quarters?  What if you're in a shoot out or your defense isn't playing well.

 

Here's a single season list of 4th quarter QB's.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/comebacks_single_season.htm

 

The Colts went 14-2 that year, 2009 and went to the Super Bowl.  Manning had 7 4th quarter comebacks.  Was he ineffective in the first 3 quarters in those 7 games?

 

I never said “every single time you have a 4th Q comeback, you were ineffective the first 3Qs”. I said, it makes you wonder why you are behind so often if you are the kind of comebacks.  For Manning, Brady, etc, they played a lot of years and  you expect they would fall behind at times.  I’m more surprised to see Brady having that many because I remember a lot of the glory years where they blew teams out, but we tend to forget the days where they ground a lot of games out, running the ball a lot.  Manning used to to run a very balanced attack as well.  It’s not a big shock they would run early, and make the plays needed to win late.

 

Carr plays in a different era, if you are coming back in a passing league, either A) your team sucks or B) maybe you do as a QB.  It’s a little of both for Carr.  He’s been pretty clutch, but the Raiders often struggle to get anything going and that’s more why he has the comebacks IMO. 

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On 10/11/2022 at 7:46 AM, unbillievable said:

I want the Browns to have a winning record then go on a losing streak once Watson starts playing.

It will be entertaining to hear the pundits discuss whether they should bench him. 😁

That would definitely rub me the right way. It would be the happy ending I would be seeking.

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On 10/11/2022 at 6:59 AM, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Do you honestly think that every single time you have a 4th quarter comeback, it means your were ineffective in the 1st 3 quarters?  What if you're in a shoot out or your defense isn't playing well.

 

Here's a single season list of 4th quarter QB's.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/comebacks_single_season.htm

 

The Colts went 14-2 that year, 2009 and went to the Super Bowl.  Manning had 7 4th quarter comebacks.  Was he ineffective in the first 3 quarters in those 7 games?

 

This is a good point. The teams in the NFL are generally all very close, typically the games being separated by a play or two. So a good QB, can absolutely be the difference maker in a win or loss. 
 

Our current team is insanely good. This isn’t the norm. There are generally only a team or two each season this good. I imagine, over the course of Allens career our team won’t be so dominant every season, but we’ll have Allen and he will win those close games more often than not. For now, we get to enjoy dominance and blowouts routinely. 
 

Thanks for sharing 

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1 hour ago, DCofNC said:

I never said “every single time you have a 4th Q comeback, you were ineffective the first 3Qs”. I said, it makes you wonder why you are behind so often if you are the kind of comebacks.  For Manning, Brady, etc, they played a lot of years and  you expect they would fall behind at times.  I’m more surprised to see Brady having that many because I remember a lot of the glory years where they blew teams out, but we tend to forget the days where they ground a lot of games out, running the ball a lot.  Manning used to to run a very balanced attack as well.  It’s not a big shock they would run early, and make the plays needed to win late.

 

Carr plays in a different era, if you are coming back in a passing league, either A) your team sucks or B) maybe you do as a QB.  It’s a little of both for Carr.  He’s been pretty clutch, but the Raiders often struggle to get anything going and that’s more why he has the comebacks IMO. 

 

I understand that if you play from behind a lot, you have more chances...there is that element.

 

But you are at this point making things up.  The Colts didn't deliberately run the ball early to keep the games close to make plays to win late.  Manning was always at the top of passing attempts.  

 

Drew Brees had 6 4th quarter comebacks in 2018 and they went 13-3.  So you're A) Your team sucks or B) maybe you do as a QB

 

Being down by 1 point in the 4th means it's a 4th quarter comeback.  It's like you're saying all these come backs, they are down multiple scores and struggled early before they picked it up.  

 

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On 10/11/2022 at 8:53 AM, Niagara Dude said:

Sorry but David Carr is not a top starting QB in this league,  cannot make plays for his team when really needed. 

Carr is better than people give him credit for. I think of him like a better Kirk Cousins. He's a very strong option and if not for a horrible route by Adams on MNF, they would have upset the chiefs 

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