Possible FA strategy adjustment in 2022?

[Einstein's Dog]

In the recent past the FO has used Free Agency to fill holes prior to the draft and then pick BPA.  But this year could the FO be delaying their last move until after the draft (vet CB)?  This year it might be advantageous to wait until after the draft to fill the vet CB spot.  Several reasons for it. 

 

Unusual amount of quality CBs still on the market.  Gilmore/Fuller/Haden/Callahan/Nelson/Rhodes. 

There may be a price break after the draft.   The vet CBs will face a demand dropoff by the 5-10 teams that draft CBs in the first 2 rounds.

 

The Bills draft could affect the type of vet CB they want - for instance, if the draft falls such that BPA in round 1 is a CB, ie Booth, then maybe FO will put in less money to fill the vet CB slot.  Get a $1-2M CB - ie old Sherman, or the oft injured B Callahan, with the intent of quickly moving Booth into the spot.  If the draft goes a different direction the FO pays more for a Nelson/Fuller/Rhodes type.

 

They could still draft BPA (in premium position of need) and fill in the remaining CB spot at a price point that may differ according to the selections from the draft.

[GunnerBill]

I think they will now wait on a FA corner until after the draft. If they draft an Andrew Booth not even sure it is a given that they sign a vet. If they draft a corner in round 3 I think very likely they bring a vet of some description in. 

[Einstein's Dog]

19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I think they will now wait on a FA corner until after the draft. If they draft an Andrew Booth not even sure it is a given that they sign a vet. If they draft a corner in round 3 I think very likely they bring a vet of some description in. 

I forgot to add the status of Tre as another factor in waiting.  Also it allows them to keep the draft day trade options open (Bradberry?)

 

I feel they're going to be adding 2  CBs, one by draft and one vet.

 

I'm interested in your ranking/thoughts on the remaining FA CBs.  Who do you think will get the most money and who do you think are the best fit for the Bills?

[Logic]

@Shaw66 has been saying this for a while now.

 

At this point, why spend on a free agent corner until after the draft?

 

Their prices will all come done and there will be a game of musical chairs, where the last few standing will have to either take cheapie one year deals or not play at all.

 

See what you get in the draft and, at the very worst, get a cheap vet after the fact.

 

 

[Bob in Mich]

I don’t follow the other teams close enough to know their CB’s but was hoping someone may...

 

With so many new coaching staffs around the league, I was wondering if there may be some promising 2-3 year vet CB’s that may now be in the ‘wrong’ defensive schemes AND may fit our defensive scheme well?  Perhaps a later round draft pick could snag a promising CB on draft day if that team’s new regime got a better fit at CB in an early round?

 

Any hope there?

[Shaw66]

51 minutes ago, Logic said:

@Shaw66 has been saying this for a while now.

 

At this point, why spend on a free agent corner until after the draft?

 

Their prices will all come done and there will be a game of musical chairs, where the last few standing will have to either take cheapie one year deals or not play at all.

 

See what you get in the draft and, at the very worst, get a cheap vet after the fact.

 

 

Thanks.  Nice to hear someone agree with that perception.  It's not that Beane wouldn't do something now, but there's no urgency.   If someone they really like is interested, he'll certainly be open to talking.  Just like, on a smaller scale, he did with Miller.  I mean, Miller wasn't in his off-season plans, but as it became clear that he would be interested in coming, Beane began to reformulate his off-season building plans to make a deal with Miller possible.   In the same way now, if a corner who looks like a good solution starts to sound like he's ready to come to Buffalo, Beane may move.   It's just that he knows he can wait, so the deal has to be the right deal. 

 

There's another point that I keep coming back to as I think about what they'll do at corner, and that is the process.   I don't know for sure, because I don't have any inside information, but I would bet that McDermott is much more comfortable going into the season with White, Jackson, Johnson, and Neal (backed up by whomever else they have or acquire) than we all think.   People here (and I'll admit to having the same thoughts) that Jackson isn't good enough, and that Neal is a scrub, but that's pretty much what was said around here for the past couple of seasons when Wallace "wasn't good enough" and Jackson was "a scrub."  This is a team defense that asks good athletes to play within the system, and if they do that the defense has more success than we expect.  I keep saying it, but it keeps being true - it's what Belichick did for years.  His defensive backfield was good for two decades, and it was done with good but not great DBs, with an occasional star thrown in.   (Belichick cared more about having a true shut-down corner than McDermott does, and he had a really good safety most of the time, but he never was afraid to throw in the young guys who had been developing in his system.)  

 

So, I'd guess that Beane isn't panicking about the corner, because McDermott is saying "I'm good if I go into the season with what I have, plus a couple of developmental guys.   If you get me a really good guy who fits, in free agency or the top of the draft, great, but I'm okay."   McDermott is okay because his process has been at work for several years now, and his process works just as he said it would.  I would guess, for example, that Dane Jackson is a much better cornerback than people on this board understand.  He's better not because he's a better physical talent than we think - he isn't and never will be a White or a Gilmore, but he's better because he has two years into a system that asks him to do those things he's physically able to do, a system that has been taught to him by Hyde and Poyer and White and Wallace.   (Wallace, of course, came up the same way.)  

 

People here complained about Beane and McDermott when they tore everything down and took big cap hits in their second year.  People here argued that the team could have been rebuilt without the blood letting, and there were plenty of reasons why what they said made sense.   But Beane and McDermott kept saying that the team had to be built the right way to have long-term success, and that the housecleaning was necessary to build the right way.  What I'm saying about the corners who are currently on the roster is an example of what Beane and McDermott were talking about.  You can't fill your roster with guys taken in the first three rounds of the draft - you don't have enough picks or enough cap room to live that way.  You have to get good play out of late-round picks and undrafted free agents.  Taron Johnson in the fourth round, Jackson in the seventh, and Wallace undrafted.  McDermott's system is designed to raise the level of play of guys like that so that the team can be a winner.  

 

Beane and McDermott trust the process, and it seems like it works.  

[ddaryl]

Can't argue with the logic.. Waiting till after the draft will have 2 effects.

1.) Existing FA CBs prices will come down because teams have drafted new shiny CBs and less demand for the FA CB's at higher prices

2.) Teams that draft a CB might also want to ditch a higher priced vet once they see who they can get in the draft placing even more monetary strain on the existing FA's

[muppy]

4 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

In the recent past the FO has used Free Agency to fill holes prior to the draft and then pick BPA. 

But this year could the FO be delaying their last move until after the draft (vet CB)?  This year it might be advantageous to wait until after the draft to fill the vet CB spot.  Several reasons for it. 

 

Unusual amount of quality CBs still on the market.  Gilmore/Fuller/Haden/Callahan/Nelson/Rhodes. 

There may be a price break after the draft.   The vet CBs will face a demand dropoff by the 5-10 teams that draft CBs in the first 2 rounds.

 

The Bills draft could affect the type of vet CB they want - for instance, if the draft falls such that BPA in round 1 is a CB, ie Booth, then maybe FO will put in less money to fill the vet CB slot.  Get a $1-2M CB - ie old Sherman, or the oft injured B Callahan, with the intent of quickly moving Booth into the spot.  If the draft goes a different direction the FO pays more for a Nelson/Fuller/Rhodes type.

 

They could still draft BPA (in premium position of need) and fill in the remaining CB spot at a price point that may differ according to the selections from the draft.

YES I agree. I think it makes great sense for the reasons u stated. They will then know what they were able to harvest from the Draft and Teams will be making cuts and players will be getting snatched Up as rosters take final shape. I guess thats true of any position of need really. I think the draft and how it falls will dictate what happens in free agency with Buffalo afterwards absolutely. 

[Einstein's Dog]

18 minutes ago, muppy said:

YES I agree. I think it makes great sense for the reasons u stated. They will then know what they were able to harvest from the Draft and Teams will be making cuts and players will be getting snatched Up as rosters take final shape. I guess thats true of any position of need really. I think the draft and how it falls will dictate what happens in free agency with Buffalo afterwards absolutely. 

I think the FO is also leaving the third outside WR spot open.  The old Sanders spot is intentionally unfilled for stud draft potential. 

 

It's a need that looks like they won't address until after the draft.  The hope by many of us is they get a WR early.  If the board doesn't work they may have to use that extra money and go to the FA well.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Tend to agree with the one wild card being Bradberry.  If he's cut, then maybe they don't wait to sign.  Or maybe he's traded to the Bills, again would change things

[Einstein's Dog]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Just like, on a smaller scale, he did with Miller.  I mean, Miller wasn't in his off-season plans, but as it became clear that he would be interested in coming, Beane began to reformulate his off-season building plans to make a deal with Miller possible.  

 

 Wallace "wasn't good enough" and Jackson was "a scrub."  

 

So, I'd guess that Beane isn't panicking about the corner,

 

Beane and McDermott trust the process, and it seems like it works.  

Thanks for the input.  I view a few things a little differently.  First, to me, priority number one for Beane was a pass rusher.  Beane didn't just Forrest Gump his way into Von.  It was one of the options Beane wanted and Beane went big to get it.  The big money at QB,WR,LT,CB, and pass rusher is no accident, all part of the beautiful overall plan.

 

Two, I always did not like Wallace and was routinely disappointed that he made it into the starting lineup.  I was glad they moved on, but certainly have hoped he would be replaced by someone better.

 

I agree Beane isn't panicking, but hope it is because he knows he'll bring one in, and that player will be better than Wallace.

[BuffaloBill]

I can easily see the Bills picking two CB’s in the first three rounds. 

[BobbyC81]

16 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

In the recent past the FO has used Free Agency to fill holes prior to the draft and then pick BPA.  But this year could the FO be delaying their last move until after the draft (vet CB)?  This year it might be advantageous to wait until after the draft to fill the vet CB spot.  Several reasons for it. 

 

Unusual amount of quality CBs still on the market.  Gilmore/Fuller/Haden/Callahan/Nelson/Rhodes. 

There may be a price break after the draft.   The vet CBs will face a demand dropoff by the 5-10 teams that draft CBs in the first 2 rounds.

 

The Bills draft could affect the type of vet CB they want - for instance, if the draft falls such that BPA in round 1 is a CB, ie Booth, then maybe FO will put in less money to fill the vet CB slot.  Get a $1-2M CB - ie old Sherman, or the oft injured B Callahan, with the intent of quickly moving Booth into the spot.  If the draft goes a different direction the FO pays more for a Nelson/Fuller/Rhodes type.

 

They could still draft BPA (in premium position of need) and fill in the remaining CB spot at a price point that may differ according to the selections from the draft.

If they don’t know if Tre White will be ready for the start of the season, it would be wise to draft a CB AND sign a vet.

[TBBills]

No adjustment... they are doing things the way they planned.

[BarleyNY]

19 hours ago, Logic said:

@Shaw66 has been saying this for a while now.

 

At this point, why spend on a free agent corner until after the draft?

 

Their prices will all come done and there will be a game of musical chairs, where the last few standing will have to either take cheapie one year deals or not play at all.

 

See what you get in the draft and, at the very worst, get a cheap vet after the fact.

 

 

We will see some FAs sign a week or so prior to the draft.  Many will be nervous about signing post-draft after draft picks have filled many of the holes on teams.  Good FA pricing now, but even better after the draft.  But there will also be less FA talent after the draft too. 

[Einstein's Dog]

4 hours ago, TBBills said:

No adjustment... they are doing things the way they planned.

It may be what they planned but the process seems to have been adjusted/tweaked.  They used to say they filled all the holes in FA and drafted BPA.  Now it appears they are intentionally leaving some spots - like say WR3, Sanders spot, for a draft pick.

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

We will see some FAs sign a week or so prior to the draft.  Many will be nervous about signing post-draft after draft picks have filled many of the holes on teams.  Good FA pricing now, but even better after the draft.  But there will also be less FA talent after the draft too. 

That's a good point.  The Bills probably are still working the field because they want a particular one- not just a bargain.  

 

Would be interesting to know who they prefer at CB:  Rhodes was a former first round draft pick with several years pro experience.   Buoye at one time had a big salary and has Carolina stink.  Just read about Kevin King being a 6'3" 200, coming back from injury but had an excellent 2019 (5 ints, 66 tackles).  Then there is also Fuller/Nelson/Callahan.

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2022/4/10/23018040/free-agent-cornerbacks-available-for-the-buffalo-bills-to-sign-kevin-king-stephon-gilmore

[Greg S]

I gave up trying to predict what the Bills will do. Didn't Beane say they weren't going to be major players in FA and looked what they ended up doing. Beane runs a tight ship when it comes to this stuff. I think the FBI lets more secrets out in one of their ops then Beane does with FA and the draft.

[Magox]

22 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

In the recent past the FO has used Free Agency to fill holes prior to the draft and then pick BPA.  But this year could the FO be delaying their last move until after the draft (vet CB)?  This year it might be advantageous to wait until after the draft to fill the vet CB spot.  Several reasons for it. 

 

Unusual amount of quality CBs still on the market.  Gilmore/Fuller/Haden/Callahan/Nelson/Rhodes. 

There may be a price break after the draft.   The vet CBs will face a demand dropoff by the 5-10 teams that draft CBs in the first 2 rounds.

 

The Bills draft could affect the type of vet CB they want - for instance, if the draft falls such that BPA in round 1 is a CB, ie Booth, then maybe FO will put in less money to fill the vet CB slot.  Get a $1-2M CB - ie old Sherman, or the oft injured B Callahan, with the intent of quickly moving Booth into the spot.  If the draft goes a different direction the FO pays more for a Nelson/Fuller/Rhodes type.

 

They could still draft BPA (in premium position of need) and fill in the remaining CB spot at a price point that may differ according to the selections from the draft.

 

This could very well be the case and if so, then they could go with BPA (among their targeted positions) and fill the CB gap afterwards.   No matter how you slice it, the Bills will definitely get a FA CB, it's just a matter of whether it will be a value FA CB or a higher FA CB.