Bills Receivers Catch Percentages

[jethro_tull]

Catch percentage for all Bills WRs.  

Isiah McKenzie leads the Bills WRs with a catch percentage of 78.3% for 2021 season.  Next is Cole Beasley with a 75.2% catch rate.  League wide he would be tied for 3rd place Kendrick Bourne.   Only Rondale Moore and Hunter Renfrow have better catch percentages.  

Hopefully he will see more playing time.  

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, jethro_tull said:

Catch percentage for all Bills WRs.  

Isiah McKenzie leads the Bills WRs with a catch percentage of 78.3% for 2021 season.  Next is Cole Beasley with a 75.2% catch rate.  League wide he would be tied for 3rd place Kendrick Bourne.   Only Rondale Moore and Hunter Renfrow have better catch percentages.  

Hopefully he will see more playing time.  

Means very little.  If a bad pass, then who cares?  Now Mackenzie caught 11 of 12.  he one drop, could have been a catch and conversely he made a couple that could have been incompletions too.  

 

Sanders dropped a TD pass that a professional should not.  

 

Doesn't seem to be a good metric on easy, wide-open, catches in coverages, leaping, or game-changing catches.......  

 

I'd like to see catches rated on some type of scale.

[hondo in seattle]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Means very little.  If a bad pass, then who cares?  Now Mackenzie caught 11 of 12.  he one drop, could have been a catch and conversely he made a couple that could have been incompletions too.  

 

Sanders dropped a TD pass that a professional should not.  

 

Doesn't seem to be a good metric on easy, wide-open, catches in coverages, leaping, or game-changing catches.......  

 

I'd like to see catches rated on some type of scale.

 

I don't think this stat is meant to measure how good a receiver is.

I think it's meant to measure how effective a connection is.   Allen to McKenzie results in completions 78.3% of the time.  That's a connection that works.

 

It's a small sample size but so far Allen to Kumerow isn't working.   Allen to Sanders hasn't been great either.  

[Coach Tuesday]

8 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Means very little.  If a bad pass, then who cares?  Now Mackenzie caught 11 of 12.  he one drop, could have been a catch and conversely he made a couple that could have been incompletions too.  

 

Sanders dropped a TD pass that a professional should not.  

 

Doesn't seem to be a good metric on easy, wide-open, catches in coverages, leaping, or game-changing catches.......  

 

I'd like to see catches rated on some type of scale.

 

Part of the issue is context - Beas and McKenzie tend to catch their passes in space; they're rarely fighting off press man coverage against large boundary CBs.  Moore and Renfrow too, for that matter - all four of these WRs tend to run patterns toward the middle of the field and where they're not pressed at the line.  Makes it much easier to catch the football because if you're not open, it doesn't come your way.  

[jethro_tull]

10 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Means very little.  If a bad pass, then who cares?  Now Mackenzie caught 11 of 12.  he one drop, could have been a catch and conversely he made a couple that could have been incompletions too.  

 

Sanders dropped a TD pass that a professional should not.  

 

Doesn't seem to be a good metric on easy, wide-open, catches in coverages, leaping, or game-changing catches.......  

 

I'd like to see catches rated on some type of scale.

 

While not a perfect stat (which one is?) it has meaning and is one of my favorites to track over the years.  The better receivers typically have a better catch percentage but you do have to understand their roles. 

This is among WRs who run routes and is an indication of their catching ability and their ability to run the route as called. 

       I can see your point if we are adding receiving RBs to the mix because their percentage is typically higher as you have mentioned.   I also did not include TEs either.  

[NewEra]

17 minutes ago, jethro_tull said:

Catch percentage for all Bills WRs.  

Isiah McKenzie leads the Bills WRs with a catch percentage of 78.3% for 2021 season.  Next is Cole Beasley with a 75.2% catch rate.  League wide he would be tied for 3rd place Kendrick Bourne.   Only Rondale Moore and Hunter Renfrow have better catch percentages.  

Hopefully he will see more playing time.  

Agreed.  The kid has the speed and athleticism to make plays.  Maybe Myles Bryant is the worst cb in the league?  Idk, but he was running solid routes and his burst gives him the separation we need out of our WRs.  He deserves to play more

[Maine-iac]

You also have to take into account the difference between someone who has only had 23 passes thrown at them and someone who has 50 plus passes thrown their way.   It is great, hopefully he can keep it up.

[eSJayDee]

Notice how %age is inversely correlated to yds/catch?  Beasley & McKenzie catch very short passes so the expectation is that you should complete them a high %age of the time.  Kumerow doesn't have enough to mean anything.  The other 3 have longer yds. 

To me, the interesting thing to note is that Davis avges (significantly) more per catch at Sanders AND a higher completion %age.  I think Davis' outperforming Diggs can be explained by Diggs being the center of attention of the defense, whereas all others are secondary considerations.

Edited December 29, 2021 by eSJayDee

[Motorin']

Dawson Know has also improved significantly, from 55% last year to 72% this year.

[Billsfan1972]

7 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

Dawson Know has also improved significantly, from 55% last year to 72% this year.

He has done a much better job catching "catchable" balls this season, that last season he dropped (1st NE game notwithstanding😜).    

 

That is why when I see drops, there seldom is context, as usually they have to be a very easy catch with no defender in site or being hit.  

 

Knox last year seemed to "not make catches", which he is this year.

 

Makes a big difference.

[CincyBillsFan]

5 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

It's a small sample size but so far Allen to Kumerow isn't working.   Allen to Sanders hasn't been great either.  

This also applies to McKenzie. Still those are outstanding numbers. 

 

I would also point out that given the much larger sample size, Beasley being at over 75% is also quite impressive. 

[HappyDays]

Chris Simms today said that McKenzie is the 2nd best WR on the Bills and I can't convince myself that he's wrong.

[Buffalo716]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Chris Simms today said that McKenzie is the 2nd best WR on the Bills and I can't convince myself that he's wrong.

I mean he's good but he's basically a two-trick pony

 

Look at his route chart over the last 2 years.. he basically runs two routes.. his athleticism make him very hard to Defend on those 2 routes  

 

But he's limited

 

Beasley and Gabe both bring alot more dimensions..  

 

If Mackenzie could ever become a true vertical threat then maybe he will become a true every down threat.. but he's way better in the 15 20 yard range than tracking balls 50 yards downfield 

 

He's just another guy that's a perfect scheme fit for what we like to do

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2021 by Buffalo716

[HappyDays]

13 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I mean he's good but he's basically a two-trick pony

 

Look at his route chart over the last 2 years.. he basically runs two routes.. his athleticism make him very hard to Defend on those 2 routes

 

DK Metcalf only runs a few routes and is known as one of the best WRs in the league. I'd prefer a jack of all trades WR but there's something to be said for being really really good at one or two things.

 

Sometimes I think we overthink this stuff. Chris Simms said it best so I'll steal his words - McKenzie is the only WR on the Bills (other than Diggs) where if you cover him one-on-one you need to watch out because he can simply run away from his coverage man. Sanders and Davis and Beasley are not at that level. McKenzie is the only dynamic playmaker on our offense (not named Josh Allen). As far as dynamic WRs go league-wide he's on the low end, but at least he has that skill set.

 

And for those who say Beasley is better at getting open against zone coverage, that may be true but on McKenzie's TD he took his route to the exact right spot so Allen could fit the ball into him. If he can be good enough at finding the hole in zone coverage, and be excellent against man coverage, that is a lot more valuable than what Beasley offers at this stage, especially with the jet sweeps etc. that McKenzie brings to the table.

Edited December 30, 2021 by HappyDays

[Shaw66]

I didn't see anyone mention that McKenzie also has several catches that are essentially handoffs.   Guys who run the jet sweep and get the ball on what's technically a pass are going to have a higher catch percentage.   

 

Before the NBA completely changed the style of play to emphasize three-point shooting and the slash-drive-kickout game, the big men always had the highest shooting percentages in the league.  That didn't mean they were the best shooters.  It meant they took the easiest shots.  Wilt Chamberlain had a career shooting percentage of .540.  Stef Curry is .475.  Doesn't mean Chamberlain was a better shooter than Curry.  

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

DK Metcalf only runs a few routes and is known as one of the best WRs in the league. I'd prefer a jack of all trades WR but there's something to be said for being really really good at one or two things.

 

Sometimes I think we overthink this stuff. Chris Simms said it best so I'll steal his words - McKenzie is the only WR on the Bills (other than Diggs) where if you cover him one-on-one you need to watch out because he can simply run away from his coverage man. Sanders and Davis and Beasley are not at that level. McKenzie is the only dynamic playmaker on our offense. As far as dynamic WRs go league-wide he's on the low end, but at least he has that skill set.

 

And for those who say Beasley is better at getting open against zone coverage, that may be true but on McKenzie's TD he took his route to the exact right spot so Allen could fit the ball into him. If he can be good enough at finding the hole in zone coverage, and be excellent against man coverage, that is a lot more valuable than what Beasley offers at this stage, especially with the jet sweeps etc. that McKenzie brings to the table.

You make some good points, but I think you overstate the case. 

 

First, McKenzie has had one good game.  Before Sunday, he never had had a game where he looked like some legitimate go-to receiver.  And until this season, his hands were really suspect.  Even this year, I watched the receivers running warm up drills, and Beas and Diggs were consciously turning their bodies to practice making catches in weird positions.  McKenzie was trapping the ball against his chest.   So, he hasn't shown me that he can be consistently anything like what we saw Sunday.   Maybe the light went on on Sunday, I don't know.  Actually, I think the light went on for a lot of guys, and maybe Isaiah is one of them.   And as you say, if he can get more snaps, then he's on the field for jet sweeps.  So, yeah, I can see it, but not yet. 

 

Plus, I don't think we can expect McKenzie to be anything like the tough, clutch receivers that Beasley and Davis are.  In their own, different ways, they are dependable third-down guys.  They both have decent speed, so it's not like they can't get deep, but I'll grant you they don't have the McKenzie blow-by-you speed.   

 

These guys have different dimensions to their games.  Maybe McKenzie is coming of age, or maybe he just had a career game.  

 

I always used to look at the best games David Nelson had and try to talk myself into how he could be a really good receiver.   That was foolish - those were just his best games, and in other games, he was just a journeyman and always would be.  

[Buffalo716]

14 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

DK Metcalf only runs a few routes and is known as one of the best WRs in the league. I'd prefer a jack of all trades WR but there's something to be said for being really really good at one or two things.

 

Sometimes I think we overthink this stuff. Chris Simms said it best so I'll steal his words - McKenzie is the only WR on the Bills (other than Diggs) where if you cover him one-on-one you need to watch out because he can simply run away from his coverage man. Sanders and Davis and Beasley are not at that level. McKenzie is the only dynamic playmaker on our offense. As far as dynamic WRs go league-wide he's on the low end, but at least he has that skill set.

 

And for those who say Beasley is better at getting open against zone coverage, that may be true but on McKenzie's TD he took his route to the exact right spot so Allen could fit the ball into him. If he can be good enough at finding the hole in zone coverage, and be excellent against man coverage, that is a lot more valuable than what Beasley offers at this stage, especially with the jet sweeps etc. that McKenzie brings to the table.

Cole Beasley has been uncoverable in man on man situations his entire career here.. just been playing Banged up .  He's almost never been covered one on one here 

 

And Gabe has been very good against man coverage when he isn't banged up either

 

They tried covering him with safeties and backups... A return specialist on not good coverage guys running across the field... That's a recipe for disaster

 

A lot of really good slot corners will be able to take that away, belichick never adjusted

 

Yes McKenzie's dynamic but he's on the low end of the spectrum as far as NFL players.. 

 

DK Metcalf as a one-trick pony and Isaiah McKenzie as a one-trick pony are on different planets... One is 6'3 230 and runs a 4.3...

 

One is 5'7 and runs a 4.4 

 

He's dynamic but he's nowhere near one of the fastest or most explosive players in the league..  I like him and he's good.. but he is what he is.. he's capable of playing games like this, but it's the outlier not the norm

 

He won't run by a lot of cornerbacks in the league like he did Sunday.. it was a total mismatch 

 

We should game plan touches for McKenzie moving forward but he's usually not out there torching backs left and right

 

Situationally he's very good

 

 

Edited December 30, 2021 by Buffalo716

[billsherd]

13 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

DK Metcalf only runs a few routes and is known as one of the best WRs in the league. I'd prefer a jack of all trades WR but there's something to be said for being really really good at one or two things.

 

Sometimes I think we overthink this stuff. Chris Simms said it best so I'll steal his words - McKenzie is the only WR on the Bills (other than Diggs) where if you cover him one-on-one you need to watch out because he can simply run away from his coverage man. Sanders and Davis and Beasley are not at that level. McKenzie is the only dynamic playmaker on our offense (Josh Allen notwithstanding). As far as dynamic WRs go league-wide he's on the low end, but at least he has that skill set.

 

And for those who say Beasley is better at getting open against zone coverage, that may be true but on McKenzie's TD he took his route to the exact right spot so Allen could fit the ball into him. If he can be good enough at finding the hole in zone coverage, and be excellent against man coverage, that is a lot more valuable than what Beasley offers at this stage, especially with the jet sweeps etc. that McKenzie brings to the table.

Chris Simms which podcast he talked about this on?

[HappyDays]

27 minutes ago, billsherd said:

Chris Simms which podcast he talked about this on?

 

 

The video is mostly about Josh Allen's dominance on Sunday. Simms briefly talks about McKenzie after showing his TD.

Edited December 30, 2021 by HappyDays

[Coach Tuesday]

40 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Chris Simms today said that McKenzie is the 2nd best WR on the Bills and I can't convince myself that he's wrong.

Just highlights how much of a need WR is on this team.  Allen masks a lot of deficiencies on offense.