Sean McDermott Ranks 5th Among Coaches on EDJ Sports list

[JohnNord]

19 minutes ago, Logic said:

When Sal posted this on Twitter, SO MANY people replied calling it nonsense and ragging on McDermott.

The only thing is, 99% of their arguments were, well....not really arguments at all.

While you may not agree with Edj Sports' list or their reasoning, it's at least based on a quantifiable set of statistics that are based on how each decision affects win likelihood percentage. In other words, there is at least method to their madness.

By contrast, the people who want to crap on the list and say it's nonsense don't really have anything to back up their claims other than their subjective opinion, their gut feeling, or their lingering upset over recent Bills losses. 

Put differently: Who is more likely to have an accurate read on this situation? The unbiased, statistical analysis based study, or the angry Bills fans that call into radio shows? I know who I'm going with.

All that this list shows is that McDermott isn’t as conservative on 4th down according to the analytics, as it would appear.

 

It does not prove that he’s perfect or that he always makes the right decisions.  Just that in terms of game decisions he usually follows the data

[BADOLBILZ]

35 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Staley has killed his team's chances in a couple games this year because he has been over aggressive. There is a new trend of head coaches predicting the future and trying to win games in the first half. The rules of football may have changed somewhat over the last few years but the fundamentals are still the same - it's a 60 minute gauntlet and points are hard to come by.

 

I hated McDermott's decision to punt on 4th and 3 against the Bucs in reap time, but maybe it was the right decision. If we failed to convert the Bucs would have had a short field and we would have lost all momentum. Instead they were backed up and even though they had a good drive it only ended in 3 points. At the end of the day his decisions left us with the ball inside the 10 yard line and a chance to score a game winning TD, and getting the ball in overtime with another chance to win. If he coached like Staley the game might have been a blowout loss in regulation.

 

 

There are a lot of people like yourself who think that most games are inevitably decided by close scores because there is just so little talent difference between teams.

 

I've never believed that..........in fact, more often than not teams coach themselves into close games.

 

Some teams are built to play that way. 

 

The Bills (and Chargers) simply are NOT.

 

It's pretty self evident at this point but it's lost on people who think that there is one way to coach and play because........well that's just how it is.......I guess.

 

As Josh Allen was told by his father "You bloom where you're planted"...........and these Bills were selected to play aggressive offensively and defend leads against teams that are then forced to throw dozens of short passes.

 

Teams like NE and TN and Baltimore and Indianapolis were built much differently and need to be coached differently.

 

Your take on the preposterous punt in Tampa is as accurate as saying that McDermott made the right decision to kick those field goals in KC last January.    It's never right if that's not playing to your team's strength.    Punting there.........as if you were in control of Tampa's offense when they were on their way to a 500 yard afternoon.......was ill-conceived.   

 

To me this is as uncomplicated and obvious as adjusting your systems to suit your personnel rather than forcing into schemes that do not...........but 20 years ago this also was not accepted as the axiom that it is now.  

 

As for Staley hurting his team's chances........from what I've seen he's mostly propelled them forward.     His #1 ranking on 4th down decisions certainly passes the eyeball test.    Not just because of overall analytics.........but also because of the team he has.

 

 

[Success]

He's not perfect - and when we're not doing well, fans focus on the flaws.

 

But he does some things VERY well.  Is there a coach who has been consistently better planning against Brady?  Even last week, he made the adjustments to shut TB down in the 2nd half.  The gameplan against the Ravens in the playoffs was spectacular.

 

He gameplans well, he makes good adjustments in game.  He can be too emotional - I don't think anyone liked how lengthy his tirades were on the sidelines in the wind game.  He's got the Rex Ryan thing when it comes to Belichick.  Sometimes, the team does seem to give up (that was more evident in the Tyrod days).

 

But he is a good coach.  I really don't know if he'll ever be elite, but that is an incredibly short list.

 

"Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good," as they say.  

[BADOLBILZ]

17 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

Just that in terms of game decisions he usually follows the data

 

No, it doesn't prove that it just indicates where he ranks relative to his peers.  

[BADOLBILZ]

36 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

I think that’s fair but there’s a flip side to a Brandon Staley as well.  I saw a LAC game earlier this year again Baltimore.  LAC fell behind and Staley went for it on fourth down a few times before the half and then once in third.  These were aggressive moves.  They didn’t convert them and ended up getting blown out.  Game was over in the 3rd.    
 

I think McDermott could take a few more chances.  I didn’t like the punts - but some of the criticism he takes about being overly conservative is overblown.  

 

 

Well,   Staley is the top rated coach on the list you chose to illustrate your point.

 

I'm well aware that for most of the game........McDermott let's Daboll and Allen play an aggressive brand of football.    He's not been conservative.

 

His 4th down coaching isn't by any means the reason that they've lost 5 games...........they just aren't an assignment sound football team this year on offense and they have been vulnerable to teams that are allowed to pound them on the ground.

 

But the problem is you can't change your team's stripes on 4th down and in the red zone just because you don't trust your offense and the OC.    They are what they are.........you ride the wave or you set yourself up to get beaten by the other teams style.   McD has too often done the latter this season.

 

[HappyDays]

54 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Your take on the preposterous punt in Tampa is as accurate as saying that McDermott made the right decision to kick those field goals in KC last January.

 

We would have lost that game whether we had gone for it on 4th down or not. It had no bearing on the result. This is what I mean when I say you can't predict the future. Take the points when they're there until you mathematically have no other choice. Some teams win games because they took the points early, some teams lose them. You won't know until later so take the points and readjust as the game goes on.

 

I still think going for it on 4th down against the Bucs would have been the right choice but we also had very little momentum at that point in the game, and ultimately that decision led to us having a chance to win a game that we were getting blown out of in the 1st half. It is not as simple as those ridiculous "win percentage calculators" on Twitter make it seem.

 

54 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

As for Staley hurting his team's chances........from what I've seen he's mostly propelled them forward.     His #1 ranking on 4th down decisions certainly passes the eyeball test.    Not just because of overall analytics.........but also because of the team he has.

 

The Chargers have converted 13 of 21 4th down attempts... 61.9%. The risk/reward doesn’t match the output. Converting a 4th down only means that the drive continues; it doesn't guarantee points unless it's 4th and goal. Missing a 4th down conversion is equivalent to a turnover at the LOS. 8 times this year Staley could have flipped the field by punting (or taken 3 points) and instead turned the ball over. 13 times they converted a 1st down and the drive continued. 13 1st downs for 8 turnovers? Not even close to an equal risk/reward.

Edited December 16, 2021 by HappyDays

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

14th (as rated by EDJ Sports) in 4th down decisions isn't all that impressive. 

 

Here's a list of their top 5 worst coaching decisions from last week:

 

https://edjsports.com/posts/91e0c61c-f62e-445e-a4fa-7eacf49772bc

 

I think decisions 2-5 are no brainers and that the coaches made the correct decision in being conservative. #1 is more of a toss up. 

 

EDJ sports says that the 49ers punting with 2:47 left in the 4th, while leading 20-13, and facing a 4th and 2 from their own 37 was the 2nd worst coaching decision of the week. 

 

There's about a 100% chance McDermott would punt in that scenario, and I would be on his side. Going for it is a huge risk with that little time left when you're up by 7. 

 

I'm extremely skeptical of the system this site is using if they think that punting there is an egregiously bad move. 

[T master]

Man your going to have to excuse my stupidity but i don't know CCI from a EPI and have never read anything on EDJ and i failed english which if you ask a couple of the english majors that we have here they will tell you as much so help a brother out & let me know what that stuff is so i can have a clue .

 

Sorry ... 😒

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

The Chargers have converted 13 of 21 4th down attempts... 61.9%. The risk/reward doesn’t match the output. Converting a 4th down only means that the drive continues; it doesn't guarantee points unless it's 4th and goal. Missing a 4th down conversion is equivalent to a turnover at the LOS. 8 times this year Staley could have flipped the field by punting (or taken 3 points) and instead turned the ball over. 13 times they converted a 1st down and the drive continued. 13 1st downs for 8 turnovers? Not even close to an equal risk/reward.

 

Lo and behold on their first possession tonight they go for it on 4th and goal at the 5 instead of taking the chip shot field goal and turn it over on downs. KC promptly goes down and scores a TD. 7-3 looks a lot better than 7-0 especially when the kickoff return set them up so well. Staley is WAY too aggressive.

Edited December 17, 2021 by HappyDays

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

We would have lost that game whether we had gone for it on 4th down or not. It had no bearing on the result. This is what I mean when I say you can't predict the future. Take the points when they're there until you mathematically have no other choice. Some teams win games because they took the points early, some teams lose them. You won't know until later so take the points and readjust as the game goes on.

 

I still think going for it on 4th down against the Bucs would have been the right choice but we also had very little momentum at that point in the game, and ultimately that decision led to us having a chance to win a game that we were getting blown out of in the 1st half. It is not as simple as those ridiculous "win percentage calculators" on Twitter make it seem.

 

 

The Chargers have converted 13 of 21 4th down attempts... 61.9%. The risk/reward doesn’t match the output. Converting a 4th down only means that the drive continues; it doesn't guarantee points unless it's 4th and goal. Missing a 4th down conversion is equivalent to a turnover at the LOS. 8 times this year Staley could have flipped the field by punting (or taken 3 points) and instead turned the ball over. 13 times they converted a 1st down and the drive continued. 13 1st downs for 8 turnovers? Not even close to an equal risk/reward.

 

Your assumption that not settling for field goals wouldn't have altered the outcome of the AFCCG is all about your own personal feels.   That's been McDermott's explanation as well.    So one of you is wrong despite your agreement.

 

Win probability favors the extra points.   Emotion and intensity is undeniably gained from trusting your players.    But,  of course fortune favors the conservative........right?  

 

And unconverted 4th downs are the unfiltered equivalent of turnovers in the same way that 4th down extended drives are likewise extra possessions gained or the equivalent of turnovers by the opposition.

 

You are so busy worrying about a 4th down conversion possibly not turning into points (or 4-5 extra points) that you've forgotten that not all changes of possession result in points for the opposition either.    

 

That's part of the "play not to lose" mentality.

 

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by BADOLBILZ

[LeGOATski]

Kick it early. Go for it late. 

 

It's really that simple.

[McBean]

6 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Many people have chastised Sean McDermott’s “conservative” decisions with the Bills.  It turns out that he’s one of the best at following what the analytics suggest.  

 

EDJ sports and analytics company created a model to analyze every coaching decisions.  The CCI stat specifically evaluated coaches on 4th down decisions.  

 

McDermott ranks 5th on this list among coaches overall.   14th in CCI and 4th in EPI.

 

Like Greg says below, he’s far from perfect, but he’s also not the Richard Jauron or Doug Marrone that some make him out to be.

 

 

Who’s the owner of EDJ sports?

 

McDermott’s Mom or wife?

[Logic]

3 hours ago, JohnNord said:

All that this list shows is that McDermott isn’t as conservative on 4th down according to the analytics, as it would appear.

 

It does not prove that he’s perfect or that he always makes the right decisions.  Just that in terms of game decisions he usually follows the data

The list says that his "EPI" ranking, which it defines as "Calls/performance in every situation", is 4th. So it actually ranks more than his 4th down decision making.

In fact, at 14, his "CCI" --4th down decision making -- is only slightly above average. It is his "calls/performance in every situation" rankings that brings him up to 5th overall.

Edited December 17, 2021 by Logic

[AlfaBill]

5 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

"he's way less bad than other coaches are'!!

 

woo hoooo!!

English a a dying language. 

Nah he sucks. Let’s keep changing HCs until we win a super bowl. 

[HappyDays]

29 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

And unconverted 4th downs are the unfiltered equivalent of turnovers in the same way that 4th down extended drives are likewise extra possessions gained or the equivalent of turnovers by the opposition.

 

Not at all correct. 4th down conversions are not inherently more valuable than converting on 1st or 2nd or 3rd down. It feels better but really it just continues the drive. Picking up 10 yards on 1st down is not equivalent to a turnover by the opponent; neither is picking up 3 yards on 4th and 3. And it certainly isn't an extra possession. It's the continuation of your current possession OR a turnover. It is something you should only do when you know that you need to.

Edited December 17, 2021 by HappyDays

[BBills88]

Does mC Dermott rely too much on the Analytics?

 

Analytics gave him the wrong information when it came to the Jags kicker ability to make a 56 yard Field Goal.

 

Belicheck is good because he has a feel for the game, the momentum changes & adjust accordingly.

 

I don't mind the Analytics aspect, but I hope Mc D utilizes his intuition & the many flows of the game to make more in game decisions.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Not at all correct. 4th down conversions are not inherently more valuable than converting on 1st or 2nd or 3rd down. It feels better but really it just continues the drive. Picking up 10 yards on 1st down is not equivalent to a turnover by the opponent; neither is picking up 3 yards on 4th and 3. And it certainly isn't an extra possession. It's the continuation of your current possession OR a turnover. It is something you should only do when you know that you need to.

 

Above was one of the more nonsensical takes I've seen.   Converting a 4th down instead of punting is literally the same as stealing an extra possession.  But also,  still not the equivalent of a turnover.  Sorry.

 

I literally just watched a pretty woeful Chargers defense nearly beat the hottest team in the NFL because they dictated the pace of the game with aggression and put TD's on the board instead of FG's.   But will hear about "9 points left on the board" from the geriatric thinking crowd(who will ignore that the Chiefs points left on the board + impact of keeping the Chiefs backed up against their end zone most of the game ALONE equated to 10 points).    

 

Great football game instead of another blowout for the Chiefs and nearly a 3rd straight win for them over the Chiefs.

[HappyDays]

12 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Converting a 4th down instead of punting is literally the same as stealing an extra possession.  But also,  still not the equivalent of a turnover.  Sorry.

 

So you're saying a 4th down conversion is inherently more valuable than a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd down conversion? By that logic a TD drive with three 4th down conversions is more valuable than a TD drive with no 4th down conversions which makes zero sense. Every 1st down is the "equivalent of stealing an extra possession" if that's the weird definition you want to use. The only difference between a 4th down play and any other play is that the 4th down play has a ton more risk involved. It isn't inherently more valuable, it's inherently more dangerous.

 

12 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

I literally just watched a pretty woeful Chargers defense nearly beat the hottest team in the NFL because they dictated the pace of the game with aggression and put TD's on the board instead of FG's.   But will hear about "9 points left on the board" from the geriatric thinking crowd(who will ignore that the Chiefs points left on the board + impact of keeping the Chiefs backed up against their end zone most of the game ALONE equated to 10 points).    

 

Great football game instead of another blowout for the Chiefs and nearly a 3rd straight win for them over the Chiefs.

 

Come on. You're not seriously going to try and convince anyone that the Chargers decisions tonight are proof that going for it on 4th down is a good thing. Even if you want to take the most generous analysis of tonight's game, if the Chargers had kicked a FG on every 4th down and missed one of them they would have scored 5 more points (taking away the TD drive on the 4th and 1 conversion, although I already said earlier I have no problem with that decision in that spot on the field). Give the Chiefs their 3 points for their 4th down attempt and the Chargers are winning by 2 with 1:15 left in the game and the Chiefs kicking off. Joe Staley killed his team tonight with an overly aggressive mindset. The big bad Chiefs can be beaten with field goals. He coached scared. Belichick would have kicked every field goal and won a boring no-nonsense game for about the 300th time.

Edited December 17, 2021 by HappyDays

[FireChans]

11 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Many people have chastised Sean McDermott’s “conservative” decisions with the Bills.  It turns out that he’s one of the best at following what the analytics suggest.  

 

EDJ sports and analytics company created a model to analyze every coaching decisions.  The CCI stat specifically evaluated coaches on 4th down decisions.  

 

McDermott ranks 5th on this list among coaches overall.   14th in CCI and 4th in EPI.

 

Like Greg says below, he’s far from perfect, but he’s also not the Richard Jauron or Doug Marrone that some make him out to be.

 

 

4 of the top 5 teams have the best QBs in football.

 

BB, who is the best coach in NFL history, is dangerously approaching "total coward" status without Brady under center.

 

Shocking, I say.

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

So you're saying a 4th down conversion is inherently more valuable than a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd down conversion? By that logic a TD drive with three 4th down conversions is more valuable than a TD drive with no 4th down conversions which makes zero sense. Every 1st down is the "equivalent of stealing an extra possession" if that's the weird definition you want to use. The only difference between a 4th down play and any other play is that the 4th down play has a ton more risk involved. It isn't inherently more valuable, it's inherently more dangerous.

 

 

Come on. You're not seriously going to try and convince anyone that the Chargers decisions tonight are proof that going for it on 4th down is a good thing. Even if you want to take the most generous analysis of tonight's game, if the Chargers had kicked a FG on every 4th down and missed one of them they would have scored 5 more points (taking away the TD drive on the 4th and 1 conversion, although I already said earlier I have no problem with that decision in that spot on the field). Give the Chiefs their 3 points for their 4th down attempt and the Chargers are winning by 2 with 1:15 left in the game and the Chiefs kicking off. Joe Staley killed his team tonight with an overly aggressive mindset. The big bad Chiefs can be beaten with field goals. He coached scared. Belichick would have kicked every field goal and won a boring no-nonsense game for about the 300th time.

Of course it is.  Do you understand opportunity cost?  If you don't convert on first down, you still have 3 more.

 

The decision between going for it on 4th down and punting is the difference between between losing possession and not.

[Doc Brown]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Above was one of the more nonsensical takes I've seen.   Converting a 4th down instead of punting is literally the same as stealing an extra possession.  But also,  still not the equivalent of a turnover.  Sorry.

 

I literally just watched a pretty woeful Chargers defense nearly beat the hottest team in the NFL because they dictated the pace of the game with aggression and put TD's on the board instead of FG's.   But will hear about "9 points left on the board" from the geriatric thinking crowd(who will ignore that the Chiefs points left on the board + impact of keeping the Chiefs backed up against their end zone most of the game ALONE equated to 10 points).    

 

Great football game instead of another blowout for the Chiefs and nearly a 3rd straight win for them over the Chiefs.

In this game it was because every 4th down attempt was under five yards and in the Chiefs territory.  I agree with you as it's the way you have to play against the Chiefs.  Staley would be commended for his boldness if they complete even just one of those fourth downs they missed as they pry win the game. 

 

Staley stuck to his guns and I respect that.    The only questionable decision was not going for 2 up 7 in the 4th quarter to make it a two possession game.  You've been aggressive all game.  Why not go for two there?