McDermott ranked 4th best head coach in terms of gameday decision making this year (per Peter King, via EdjSports)

[Logic]

I was reading Peter King's FMIA column this morning (https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/12/06/ravens-steelers-nfl-week-13-fmia-peter-king/) and came across this:

"The top and bottom-rated coaches in the league through 12 weeks in the EdjSports Head Coach Rankings say something about the meaning of coaches in the game. The rankings measure every coaching decision through a series of metrics including fourth-down calls and play-calling choices (judged pre-snap, not after the result). Here are the rankings and explanation of the parameters.

Top five
1. Brandon Staley
2. Matt LaFleur
3. Kliff Kingsbury
4. Sean McDermott
5. Frank Reich

Bottom five
28. Pete Carroll
29. Dan Campbell
30. Joe Judge
31. Robert Saleh
32. Mike Tomlin

Team records through 12 weeks of the top five coaches: 37-20. Bottom five: 15-38-2."


I thought that was pretty interesting, and encouraging, particularly because McDermott sometimes catches a lot of flak around these parts for his gameday decision making. Personally, I feel that it's gotten better and better in each year as a head coach. Every now and then, he reverts back to conservative tendencies, but by and large, he's aggressive, smart, and clearly relies on his analytics team on gamedays.

For those curious how these rankings are put together, Below is the link to the actual EdjSports Head Coach Rankings. Given that the combined record of their top five coaches is impressive, while the combined record of their bottom five coaches is abysmal, I'd argue that perhaps they have a decent set of rankings.

https://edjsports.com/posts/bcb73078-aafc-45a9-8b30-4054b34ce0a7

[Buftex]

Agreed, he has improved each year.  I am still not sure about his call in the Tennessee game, but if we had made it, I wouldn't be complaining.  It was interesting to see Harbaugh make a similar decision yesterday, with similar results.  

[First Round Bust]

so two coaches who won super bowls are rated at the bottom along with 2 rookies and Judge who likely gets fired...

 

good to know McD making better in-game coaching decisions for sure...but what I dont get is why Bills are often in the top 10 or 5 (this season) as far as penalties, and its the vets who are repeat offenders when McD often says zero tolerance for non-aggresive (holding, Offside, unsportsmanline, etc) so those are on the position coaching, inability-lack of talent ?

[Cheektowaga Chad]

I'm someone that has criticized McDermotts game day decisions

 

My issue is I think he picks the wrong times to be aggressive vs being conservative

 

One of my biggest gripes is that I feel he is way too conservative in the first half and then gets over aggressive in the 2nd half. I think it should be the opposite with the current team we have. If being aggressive early works then we can go conservative late, if it doesn't work you just stay aggressive

 

I would love to these stats based on 1st half vs 2nd and where he ranks in making the right calls

Edited December 6, 2021 by Cheektowaga Chad

[Sugar High JA17]

I would rank him in the top 10, Fix Daboll then top 5

[FilthyBeast]

Until he beats Belichik and the Pats in a meaningful game he's not a true wartime coach.

 

And I hope to god he don't trot Bass out there if this team is trailing by double digits early and/or any long FG attempts with the expected weather conditions. Show some balls if you want to beat Belichik and have any real chance of making a run this year.

[Logic]

5 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

Until he beats Belichik and the Pats in a meaningful game he's not a true wartime coach.

 

And I hope to god he don't trot Bass out there if this team is trailing by double digits early and/or any long FG attempts with the expected weather conditions. Show some balls if you want to beat Belichik and have any real chance of making a run this year.

"He can't beat his mentor, Andy Reid!". He beat Andy Reid.

"He can't beat good teams!". He beat good teams, multiple times.

"He can't win primetime games in a national showcase!". He won primetime games, multiple times.

"He can't win playoff games!". He won playoff games.

"He can't beat Bill Belichick!". He beat Bill Belichick, twice.

I guess the last two dragons left to slay are Belichick in a "meaningful" game and the Super Bowl. So far, he's done pretty well at slaying the dragons placed before him.

 

[Cheektowaga Chad]

Wasn't last seasons Monday night game meaningful? 

[RiotAct]

6 minutes ago, Logic said:

"He can't beat his mentor, Andy Reid!". He beat Andy Reid.

"He can't beat good teams!". He beat good teams, multiple times.

"He can't win primetime games in a national showcase!". He won primetime games, multiple times.

"He can't win playoff games!". He won playoff games.

"He can't beat Bill Belichick!". He beat Bill Belichick, twice.

I guess the last two dragons left to slay are Belichick in a "meaningful" game and the Super Bowl. So far, he's done pretty well at slaying the dragons placed before him.

 

The home game against New England last season was very meaningful.  

 

I think even the road game week 16 where we curbstomped them, the seedings were still up in the air?

[Cheektowaga Chad]

2 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

The home game against New England last season was very meaningful.  

 

I think even the road game week 16 where we curbstomped them, the seedings were still up in the air?

The week 16 game clinched the division if I remember correctly 

[RiotAct]

Just now, Cheektowaga Chad said:

The week 16 game clinched the division if I remember correctly 

nope that was the game @Denver.

[Logic]

The way I remember it, the Dolphins were hot on the Bills' trail for the AFC East lead when the Bills played the Pats on Monday Night Football. While the stakes certainly weren't as high as they are this season in such a direct way, the game DID matter.

[Cheektowaga Chad]

3 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

nope that was the game @Denver.

Yes, thats right thanks. I remember that pats game being "changing of the guard" being a theme of the broadcast 

[JoPoy88]

57 minutes ago, Logic said:

I was reading Peter King's FMIA column this morning (https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/12/06/ravens-steelers-nfl-week-13-fmia-peter-king/) and came across this:

"The top and bottom-rated coaches in the league through 12 weeks in the EdjSports Head Coach Rankings say something about the meaning of coaches in the game. The rankings measure every coaching decision through a series of metrics including fourth-down calls and play-calling choices (judged pre-snap, not after the result). Here are the rankings and explanation of the parameters.

Top five
1. Brandon Staley
2. Matt LaFleur
3. Kliff Kingsbury
4. Sean McDermott
5. Frank Reich

Bottom five
28. Pete Carroll
29. Dan Campbell
30. Joe Judge
31. Robert Saleh
32. Mike Tomlin

Team records through 12 weeks of the top five coaches: 37-20. Bottom five: 15-38-2."


I thought that was pretty interesting, and encouraging, particularly because McDermott sometimes catches a lot of flak around these parts for his gameday decision making. Personally, I feel that it's gotten better and better in each year as a head coach. Every now and then, he reverts back to conservative tendencies, but by and large, he's aggressive, smart, and clearly relies on his analytics team on gamedays.

For those curious how these rankings are put together, Below is the link to the actual EdjSports Head Coach Rankings. Given that the combined record of their top five coaches is impressive, while the combined record of their bottom five coaches is abysmal, I'd argue that perhaps they have a decent set of rankings.

https://edjsports.com/posts/bcb73078-aafc-45a9-8b30-4054b34ce0a7

very interesting thanks for this Logic - I have to admit I don’t know much at all about this Edj outfit, do they outline their methodology on the site anywhere?

[Logic]

9 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said:

very interesting thanks for this Logic - I have to admit I don’t know much at all about this Edj outfit, do they outline their methodology on the site anywhere?

From their website https://edjsports.com/posts/bcb73078-aafc-45a9-8b30-4054b34ce0a7:

 

Our Methodology

EdjSports is widely acclaimed for its in-game risk management analysis and proprietary Game-Winning Chance (GWC) metric used by NFL teams and media. GWC is a team’s win probability at any point in the game and is generated from the proprietary EdjFootball simulation model. EdjSports is creating the industry standard for head coach rankings by allocating its GWC to coaching decisions.

About the EdjFootball model
Built on 20+ years of historical NFL play-by-play and statistical data, the EdjFootball model is a fully customizable simulation engine. It accounts for each team’s strengths and weaknesses on offense, defense, and special teams. Model inputs include game state (score, timeouts, quarter, clock, down and distance, and field position), venue characteristics (indoor, outdoor, grass, turf, elevation), second half kickoff team, key injuries and Football Outsiders DVOA. Each week the model evaluates team performances and adjusts team strengths and weakness accordingly. As a result of these analyses, over the course of a season the EdjFootball model simulates over 3 billion games to conclusion.

About the EdjSports Coach Rankings
EdjSports analyzes every coaching decision during the course of a season. The EdjFootball model enables an in-depth examination of all critical calls (4th downs, PATs, and kickoffs), in terms of the amount of GWC at stake. The coach’s play-calling choices (run, pass, field goal, punt) are assessed at the point of decision (pre-snap) and rated with respect to their impact on winning the game. As a result of this process all play calling decisions can be objectively classified as either optimal decisions (correct calls) or suboptimal decisions (errors).
The EdjSports Coach Rankings are based on this methodology and consist of two main components that result in the overall ranking.

Edj Power Indexes (EPI) Ranking
This is a cumulative ranking of the Edj Power Indexes (EPIs) including Offensive Pass, Offensive Rush, Defensive Pass and Defensive Rush. This ranking is a reflection of how teams performed in every situation during the season.

Offensive Play Calling (CCI) Ranking
This ranking is based on an analysis of offensive play calling on 4th downs and compares teams in terms of GWC lost or gained, on a normalized basis so that all teams are given the same test. Additionally, the CCI rankings are adjusted to account for the frequency and situational nature of critical calls to allow for fair comparisons of all 32 teams.

EdjSports Coach Ranking
This ranking is a weighted average of the Edj Power Indexes (EPI) and Offensive Play Calling (CCI) Rankings that provides a more comprehensive assessment of coaching strengths and weaknesses.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, Buftex said:

Agreed, he has improved each year.  I am still not sure about his call in the Tennessee game, but if we had made it, I wouldn't be complaining.  It was interesting to see Harbaugh make a similar decision yesterday, with similar results.  

Harbaugh did a similar thing in the game yesterday.  Didn't hate it as they'd been gashed the last 3 drives.  

 

I do question jumping Offside on 2nd and 2, but i get it.  I just look at it like if you can get 2 stops you have a little under 2 minutes and you're kicking to win.  

[billsfan89]

By my amateur eye I wouldn’t rank McD as one of the best coaches in terms of in game decisions but I think he is better than average for sure. From 2017-2019 he made questionable decisions in game with some regularity but he slowly got better and by 2020 he made mostly good decisions in game. 

[Reader]

Interesting that Staley is #1, really speaks to a coach's willingness to take risks.

[Mat68]

Fine line between be aggressive vs being reckless.  I think Mcdermott is close to how you would want it.  At times he is a little conservative but who is to say those are also the proper decisions analytically.   

[Mr. WEO]

Tomlin is the worst?  This is shocking news...