Alphas Roster Stab 2.0 (after first preseason game)

[Alphadawg7]

 

I am leading off with this tweet and quote of Frazier because this certainly does put a possible wrinkle into the DE depth chart scenario.  Pretty heavy endorsement from Frazier, although he isn't making the final call, but still with 6 guys ahead of him as an actual DE essentially in Hughes, Addison, AJE, Rousseau, Obada, and Boogie...this just got a little more interesting then I was expecting in regards to DJ.  

 

I just cant fathom the idea we would keep 7 DE's, so I think his roster slot is going to ultimately depend on one of Rousseau or Boogie really making a strong case to be a significant part of the DE rotation.  And Rousseau especially is off to a good start between camp and first preseason game for sure.  However, pass rush was the focus point this offseason, and Addison (the most talked about trade candidate) has gotten a lot of praise so far, including a big endorsement of them saying he has looked great and they expect big things from him this year.  And Obada has reportedly had one of the best camps of anyone on the roster too.  

 

But this is a strong endorsement for Johnson, and our coaches and FO usually mean what they say.  Its not Fraziers final call, but this certainly peaks my curiosity on ultimately what the DE depth chart will look like week 1.  Could they cut Obada?  Seems unlikely given all the buzz around him.  Could they trade either Addison or Hughes?  Maybe, but seems like they wouldn't want to given the SB aspirations and the need to pressure Mahomes to get there.  

 

Offense:  Total 25

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

TE Knox - Hollister, Sweeney

WR Diggs - Kumerow

WR Sanders - Davis

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Hart, Doyle

 

Defense:  Total 25

LDE:  Hughes - Obada, Boogie

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Rousseau

DT:  Star - Phillips

DT:  Oliver - Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Klien, Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Dodson, Matakevich

LCB:  Tre 

RCB:  Levi - Dane

NCB:  Taron - Neal

SS:  Poyer - Hamlin

FS:  Hyde - Johnson

 

Specialists:  Total 3

PR/KR:  Mckenzie (already counted above to the 53 total)

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

CHANGES from 1.0 - ADDITIONS 

• OT:  Hart - I had us keeping 9 in the 1.0 version, but ultimately 2 of the 4 backups were Brown and Doyle, 2 rookies.  And it just doesn't seem to be our FO style to lean so heavily on a couple developmental rookies, and I think Hart will make the roster, even if we keep only 9 (where Doyle would be the odd man out if we keep 9).  I think they are very intrigued by the sheer size of Doyle and focused on improving our size upfront, so for this version I have both Hart and Doyle making the final 53.
  • NOTE:  I have Taiwan Jones essentially as my 54th player right now, so I could see us cutting Doyle (PS candidate if so) and keeping 9 potentially to open up a roster spot for Taiwan too.  
• TE:  Sweeney - I had him in until the very end of doing my last mock, but after seeing how much praise and love the staff and team have for him, and showing well in first preseason game in limited reps, I decided he gets kept.  

 

CHANGES from 1.0 - SUBTRACTIONS

• DT:  Butler - Numbers game, and honestly it could be either Butler, Phillips or Zimmer.  I agreed with a lot of people who commented and chimed in on the first attempt that it will be hard to keep 11 DL this year.   I feel like Butler might have more potential trade value in terms of maybe a late round pick, and Beane has proven to be able to get value out of guys like him in the past.  Being dinged up, not really standing out, etc I think makes him at this stage slightly more likely to be cut or traded than the others despite him being listed as Star's current back up on the first depth chart.  This is a hard one to call, feels almost like a toss up here between him, Phillips, and Zimmer.  
• CB:  Lewis - I feel like he has flashed some upside, so I had him on my original 1.0, but at this point, I just think they can't justify keeping him over some of the other guys they seem poised to keep.  And we only kept 8 DB's last year as well, so just can't validate him on here any longer.

 

NOTES:

TRADES:  I think a trade is a possibility at DE still even though I do not have it here.  Main reasons I do not have a trade here is simply because all of the DE's that could be a potential trade candidate have been receiving high praise from players, coaches, and Beane.  The most important focus of the off season was blatantly stated and shown in our actions of beefing up the pass rush.  If Rousseau keeps showing up like he has done so far, then trading one of the vets (most likely Addison I would guess) becomes more plausible. 

 

But its still a bit early to start trusting Rousseau and Boogie to be capable rotational guys to lean on in a season we are expecting to challenge the Chiefs for AFC Supremacy and a SB run.  McD and Beane have both shown to not want to rush rookies into too heavy a role early if possible too.

 

Maybe Obada could be traded (or cut) too, but he has also reportedly had one fo the best camps of anyone on the team this year.  Daryl Johnson despite the praise still didn't quite make my final 53, but clearly isn't out of the equation by any means.  Just think its going to take a surprise cut or some sort of trade at DE for him to truly have a path to the 53 as I don't see anyway they could ever keep 7 at DE.  

 

ST SPECIALISTS:  We have a couple of guys who have very strong ST value, and backup, very limited, or non existent roles at their respective positions.  And this is shaping up to be one of the more interesting battles...those ST guys fighting for roster spots.

• Making the final 53
  • LB Andre Smith - to me he has so far made a very strong case for the final 53 given he has shown quite well at LB and is a core ST contributor and currently have him making it.
  • WR Jake Kumerow - Camp darling coming into preseason full of buzz with a strong trend towards the final 53.  First preseason didn't present him a chance to show anything as a receiver per se, but my guess is his roster spot is going to be heavily evaluated by how he did on ST more than anything.   From all accounts I have seen, he has had as strong ST camp as well, which is why I think right now he is on the final 53 given potential value at his position as a WR.
  •  
• Not making the 53 currently:
  • RB Taiwan Jones - He is my next man up once a clear roster spot opens, he very much could be on the final 53, but right now, I think Kumerow ST ability is the main reason I don't yet have a spot for him.  But there are still multiple ways I can see him having a spot still despite not in my final 53 in version 2.0:
    • One:  They decide to keep him over a 10th OL (likely odd man out would be Doyle in that case)...I think this may be the most plausible road to the final 53 for Taiwan.
    • Two:  We move one of our DE's and keep only 5 at DE.  Although Daryl Johnson would also still be in the mix if that was the case too and will come down to who they prefer between the two of them.  
    • We keep only 5 LBs instead of 6.  We kept 6 last year, and two of them are also very good ST players as well, so I still have us keeping 6 LB's.
    • Three:  In a bit more of a surprise move, we keep only 5 WR's and Kumerow was the odd man out.  Just feel like Kumerow overall brings more right now than Taiwan who has no positional value at RB and only is a ST player.  So I still think keeping a 6th in Kumerow is more plausible.  
  • DE Daryrl Jonson - Already covered him earlier...he wont likely sniff many snaps this year at DE regardless of the depth chart, and he is definitely currently 7th on that depth chart, and 4th at his side of the ball.  So I have a hard time adding him into a final 53 without first seeing some sort of a trade or just flat out surprise cut at DE.  But ultimately, I think only ONE of Johnson or Taiwan (below) will be kept, and I think Taiwan has an easier path to the final roster given there are more roads for him to get there.  Daryl to me has only one shot, and that is moving on from one of the other DE's.

Edited August 17, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[Philo]

Prepare to catch some flak for including Hart...

 

Also, why S. Neal over T. Johnson as starter at NCB?

 

Regardless, thanks for putting this together - I agree with most of it. 

Edited August 16, 2021 by Philo

[Alphadawg7]

20 minutes ago, Philo said:

Prepare to catch some flak for including Hart...

 

Also, why S. Neal over T. Johnson as starter at NCB?

 

Regardless, thanks for putting this together - I agree with most of it. 

 

That was a typo mistake...thanks for catching that, I just fixed it as obviously Taron is the starter at NCB.  I originally didnt list a NCB specific position and just included them all under DB moniker.  Just cut and paste typo error

 

Hart isn't one I am married to, I think the 9th and 10 OL spots are very much up for grabs still to be honest.  

Edited August 16, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[LeGOATski]

Nice write-up.

 

I would get rid of Hart and add Johnson. I think he adds more value to special teams than Hart does anywhere. We're overstating the pressure on the rookie OLs, I think. If injuries (knock on wood) cause Hart or the rookies to be forced in, I don't think there's much difference.

[Rc2catch]

I don’t have a problem with the list. 
There’s gonna be variables we as fans could never predict I’m sure. 
I could see Boogie or someone possibly red shirting with an “injury” 

Definitely could see a low level trade or two of fringe roster guys. 
They could always throw us for a loop like last year with roberts and Marlowe. Cutting them just to bring them back after teams make cuts. 
Maybe Zimmer or Dodson kinda players. 

[Philo]

2 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

I don’t have a problem with the list. 
There’s gonna be variables we as fans could never predict I’m sure. 
I could see Boogie or someone possibly red shirting with an “injury” 

Definitely could see a low level trade or two of fringe roster guys. 
They could always throw us for a loop like last year with roberts and Marlowe. Cutting them just to bring them back after teams make cuts. 
Maybe Zimmer or Dodson kinda players. 

 

I could see a guy like Doyle getting the "injury red shirt" treatment

[Freddie's Dead]

Good list, one beef.  Hart better show up against the 3rd and 4th stringers next week, or no way he makes the roster.

[Alphadawg7]

13 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Good list, one beef.  Hart better show up against the 3rd and 4th stringers next week, or no way he makes the roster.

 

Oh I agree fully.  His roster spot by no means is guaranteed, and I had him off my original 53 first draft.  The only thing was just having a hard time seeing the only reserve tackles on the roster being 2 rookies given that hasn't really been McD and Beane's style.  And quite honestly, no one on the back end of the OL depth chart right now is really standing out.  Could also be someone not currently on the roster we trade for or sign one once cuts start happening too.

 

So yeah, but. no means is Hart locked in, but I penciled him in given he is still slated as the backup at RT.

Edited August 16, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[Shaw66]

Can't say I ever get too excited about this kind of stuff, but I appreciate the work others put in thinking about it. 

 

I'd just say that Frazier's comments about Johnson sounded to me like he is a lock.  We know they love him on special teams - I think because he's an unusual combination of size, speed, and determination for a special teams player.   But Frazier's comments also make it sound like they want him on the defensive line.   

 

Frazier's comments were about as direct praise for a backup as we've heard from any of these coaches since they've been in Buffalo.  

[MJS]

This one is a lot better. But I think Taiwan Jones is a lock, personally. And I can't see us only going with 5 WR's, but it's very difficult to find where those two positions slot in. It's going to be hard for Beane and crew to make these cuts.

[Freddie's Dead]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Oh I agree fully.  His roster spot by no means is guaranteed, and I had him off my original 53 first draft.  The only thing was just having a hard time seeing the only reserve tackles on the roster being 2 rookies given that hasn't really been McD and Beane's style.  And quite honestly, no one on the back end of the OL depth chart right now is really standing out.  Could also be someone not currently on the roster we trade for or sign one once cuts start happening too.

 

So yeah, but. no means is Hart locked in, but I penciled him in given he is still slated as the backup at RT.

 

Vomiting only because Hart makes me do so, your post is spot on.  Should be plenty of OT's better than Hart at cut down.  Not saying much, giving up 2 sacks/game would be better than Hart.

[CorkScrewHill]

2 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Nice write-up.

 

I would get rid of Hart and add Johnson. I think he adds more value to special teams than Hart does anywhere. We're overstating the pressure on the rookie OLs, I think. If injuries (knock on wood) cause Hart or the rookies to be forced in, I don't think there's much difference.

I agree on keeping Johnson. I do suspect that given the expanded Practice Squads and the ability to stash a veteran there .. they could stash the one they think is least likely to be poached (Doyle, Bates or Hart). I am not as sold on bates as others but so far in my 40+ years of fandom One Bills Drive has not consulted me .. surprisingly so

[LeGOATski]

9 minutes ago, MJS said:

This one is a lot better. But I think Taiwan Jones is a lock, personally. And I can't see us only going with 5 WR's, but it's very difficult to find where those two positions slot in. It's going to be hard for Beane and crew to make these cuts.

I think you have to look at the OL and LB as position groups where they'll keep less than people are expecting. So Smith or Dodsen. Matakevich, like Johnson, also has ST value.

[NewEra]

Haven’t had time to read the the entire thing, just skimmed the roster.  Hart is the obvious troublesome sight but I can understand why you think he might get kept. I could see us keeping D Johnson or Butler over Hart if Brown or Doyle shows marked improvement in the following weeks.  Would be nice if brown could be our full time backup swing tackle this season.   I hope we move on from Taiwan.  I respect what he does but I’d rather put that spot to use elsewhere if they think Kumerow or someone else can do a fine job.

 

we are so thin at Cb.  It scares me tremendously.  Likelihood of one cb getting hurt and missing time is pretty good imo.  Imagine if 2 get hurt?  The niners had 4 hurt at the same time last season.  

[uninja]

Seeing that list with only 5 CB's on the active roster fills me with existential dread.

[Alphadawg7]

10 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Can't say I ever get too excited about this kind of stuff, but I appreciate the work others put in thinking about it. 

 

I'd just say that Frazier's comments about Johnson sounded to me like he is a lock.  We know they love him on special teams - I think because he's an unusual combination of size, speed, and determination for a special teams player.   But Frazier's comments also make it sound like they want him on the defensive line.   

 

Frazier's comments were about as direct praise for a backup as we've heard from any of these coaches since they've been in Buffalo.  

 

I have learned one thing from the McBeane era...they and the coaches always mean what they say, so I don't take Frazier's praise lightly.  When I started writing 2.0, I had him making the 53.  It wasn't until I was done did I realize I still just cant find a spot for him without a surprise cut or some sort of trade at DE.  Just cant imagine us keeping 7 DE's, and right now, all of them have a more significant claim to a DE roster spot than DJ.  

 

But the next 2 guys I have being kept, essentially spots 54 and 55 on the roster for me right now are Taiwan and DJ.  DJ is the better player IMO, but he is utterly buried on the depth chart with 6 guys ahead of him who could literally start on different teams around the NFL.  Taiwan is true specialist adding very little offensively, but we have kept 4 RB's every year under this regime (well 5 if you count the 1 FB we seem to always keep too).  So it just seems more plausible for him to make the final roster before DJ IMHO without some sort of trade at DE.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Looks pretty good to me.  Changes i expect

 

I see 4 RBs and 9 Oline.  Add Jones, subtract hart and plug him or someone else (probably not on the roster yet) in on PS.  If you need them to be active for a game or two you have the option to bring them up without having to sign them for a full 53 spot.

 

I just look at it like this - the 10th offensive lineman will be inactive on game days.  Jones will be active as the 3rd running back (pushing breida into a matchup dependent role), and played over 200 ST snaps.  Kumerow may not be active on every game day, as it would be matchup/injury dependent.  If a starter is nursing an ankle or something, and is Questionable, maybe you have 6 active that week in case of reaggravating an injury, but there isn't a need for 6 WRs out of 45 players.  

 

First thought is winning games, 2nd thought is protecting players.  The team is a division winner coming off playing in the AFC championship, they can't keep everyone.  

[Niagara Bill]

When MacKenzie gets hurt who returns punts and kick offs?

Consider Stevenson stays or Mac will never see an offensive play. Last year you had two capable returners.

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

Haven’t had time to read the the entire thing, just skimmed the roster.  Hart is the obvious troublesome sight but I can understand why you think he might get kept. I could see us keeping D Johnson or Butler over Hart if Brown or Doyle shows marked improvement in the following weeks.  Would be nice if brown could be our full time backup swing tackle this season.   I hope we move on from Taiwan.  I respect what he does but I’d rather put that spot to use elsewhere if they think Kumerow or someone else can do a fine job.

 

we are so thin at Cb.  It scares me tremendously.  Likelihood of one cb getting hurt and missing time is pretty good imo.  Imagine if 2 get hurt?  The niners had 4 hurt at the same time last season.  

 

Based on how many we have kept in the past at various positions, I think Taiwan would be kept before DJ if we kept one less OL though, just dont see us keeping 7 DE's.  I think the only path for DJ is a trade or surprise cut at DE personally, even though I like DJ and would be happy keeping him.  

 

And totally agree, if Doyle shows better than Hart, they very well could roll the dice on 2 rookies as our backup OT's.  

 

And yeah, I feel the same at DB.  Originally had us keeping 10 in my 1.0 version, but I was shocked to see we only kept 8 last year in total.  So I made some cuts there.  I think Wildgoose or Lewis could still potentially make the roster, or even Josh Thomas too.  But right now, I cut down in the defensive backfield to make room at some other spots, again based on what they have done in the past in terms of how many they kept at respective positions.  Maybe they keep 5 LB's instead of 6 to add one more DB, who knows.  I just know 2 of those backup LB's are heavy ST contributors and good ones.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Niagara Bill said:

When MacKenzie gets hurt who returns punts and kick offs?

Consider Stevenson stays or Mac will never see an offensive play. Last year you had two capable returners.

 

And if he doesn't get hurt you have a 7th WR who never suits up for a game.  7 of the 53 above are inactive on game days.  

1 of the 4 RBs if you have 4.  2 Olinemen if they kept 10.  2 dlinemen.  Probably 1 of the 6 WRs.  1 of 4 TEs.