My NFL Draft Big Board (Excel Doc)/ Targets for the Bills at Pick #30

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

How’s it going? Less than a week until the draft now so I just wanted to post this for anyone who is interested. The attached Excel doc is a draft cheat sheet of sorts that I’ve put together the past few years ahead of the draft for a few family and friends.

 

As a disclaimer, I do this just for fun and to prep prior to the draft/keep track of how the draft is going once it's started. I have gathered stats, pro day results (https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-pro-day-schedule-pro-day-results-tracker), Relative Athletic Scores (https://relativeathleticscores.com/2021/01/23/2021-draft-class-ras/), and some facts/bits of analysis along with some of my own notes/observations. Also note that I've taken an optimistic view of many players and often graded them based on their ceilings/potential if they were put in the right situation or scheme (we know this isn't always the case). Hopefully everyone is able to view the attached doc, but let me know if there are any issues. 

 

Outside of the targets who are guaranteed to go in the top 10 IMO, here are my ideal targets for the Bills to draft at pick #30 (most will likely be gone by the time we pick):

 

1)     Caleb Farley- might be the best defensive player in the entire draft, but could fall due to his history of back injuries. Very special player/athlete who is still learning the position and has upside. Some of the best CB tape I’ve ever seen and would allow the Bills to be more scheme-versatile.

2)     Kwity Paye- a big, physical edge who has the speed and bend of a smaller player. A converted RB with tons of upside/room to grow. Excellent vs the run as well.

3)     Alijah Vera-Tucker- very refined and versatile lineman who can play at tackle or guard. Very mobile and balanced with good footwork and hand usage. Very high floor without the huge ceiling of the previous two targets.

4)     Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah- prototype of the modern day NFL hybrid defender. Body and range of a safety combined with the physicality and block-shedding of a LB. Flies around the field with reckless abandon and has great ball skills. Someone who could help us match up against KC more effectively with his speed.

5)     Azeez Ojulari- has been miscast as a 3-4 OLB by many due to his weight, but watch his tape and you’ll see a plus run defender who has the strength and power to hold up and get into the backfield. Elite speed, flex, and bend around the edge to get to the QB. Georgia coaches loved this player, named a captain as a freshman.

6)     Greg Newsome- elite athlete with top end speed and length to play in any scheme. Would allow the Bills to mix in some man and match up with the faster WRs in the league. A very feisty defender who competes for every ball.

7)     Teven Jenkins- baddest dude in the draft, wants to embarrass defenders on every play. Mauler in the run game, should kick inside to guard and be above average to elite on the interior.  Intimidating size and fantastic athleticism.

😎 Elijah Moore- 4.35 speed and world-class short area quickness. Proven ability to beat man coverage and is electric after the catch.

9)     Jayson Oweh- arguably the top athlete in the draft. Some questions about why he didn’t have a single sack in 2020, but he generated a ton of pressures. A raw prospect who has all the physical gifts you can’t teach, but can be coached up. Insane ceiling, could wind up being the best pass rusher in the class.

10)  Terrace Marshall Jr.- overshadowed by Ja’Marr Chase at LSU, but was very productive when targeted and is an intriguing size/speed combo (6’3” with 4.40 speed). Big catch radius and wins above the rim.

 

Cheers and Go Bills! Can't wait to see who will be wearing a Bills cap by next weekend!

2021 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings.xlsx

[NewEra]

Awesome. Great work!!  I’ve only started to skim through so far and I’m impressed.  Can’t wait to dig in once I get some time later on today. Thanks for posting 👍🏻

[TheBeaneBandit]

Love your list! Oweh would make me nervous but I'd be thrilled with pretty much anyone else.👍

[No_Matter_What]

Amazing, thanks for posting.

[mjt328]

No Jaelen Phillips?  Or do you not think he has a chance of lasting until 30?

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

Tevin Jenkins is one guy who is consistently underrated in mock drafts. Teams are desperate for young cheap tackles, and he will likely go in the top 20.

[GVINCENT]

Travis Ettiene... They are not going to stop the Chiefs or the Bucs anyway, so just keep the ball out of their hands. Run, baby run...

 

[GunnerBill]

Disagree on Ojulari. He is 3-4 only to my eye. Decent all rounder, inconsistent hands, stonewalled by pro ready tackles. .

 

And Teven Jenkins is RT only. That is not first round value to me. Hard, hard pass.

 

Elijah Moore at #61 I'd love. Not at #30.

 

The rest I can pretty much be on board with.

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

And Teven Jenkins is RT only. That is not first round value to me. Hard, hard pass.

He's played some left tackle in college looked pretty good. The whole "his arms are 3/8 of an inch too short to handle pass rushers" analysis I've seen reminds me of when the Bills front office put out the opinion that Cordy Glenn could only play guard only to draft him and start him at LT.

[CommonCents]

Newsome/Marshall. Those are the two I want most. 

[GunnerBill]

41 minutes ago, Allen2Diggs said:

He's played some left tackle in college looked pretty good. The whole "his arms are 3/8 of an inch too short to handle pass rushers" analysis I've seen reminds me of when the Bills front office put out the opinion that Cordy Glenn could only play guard only to draft him and start him at LT.

 

I heard him on Matt Miller's podcast and he himself said he much prefers playing RT and feels more comfortable there which is what his tape looked like to me too. 

 

Shame for his agent though who had spent the previous week ringing teams trying to talk up his ability at LT.

[Big Gun]

2 hours ago, GVINCENT said:

Travis Ettiene... They are not going to stop the Chiefs or the Bucs anyway, so just keep the ball out of their hands. Run, baby run...

 

Yup, if he is there, take him!

[OldTimer1960]

Nice read, seems maybe too generous with number of players with “Pro Bowl talent”.

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Disagree on Ojulari. He is 3-4 only to my eye. Decent all rounder, inconsistent hands, stonewalled by pro ready tackles. .

 

And Teven Jenkins is RT only. That is not first round value to me. Hard, hard pass.

 

Elijah Moore at #61 I'd love. Not at #30.

 

The rest I can pretty much be on board with.

Gunner:  what do you think of Carlos Basham?  He isn’t the twitchy/explosive pass rusher that we would love to find, but he looks fairly fluid, has very good size and was productive, albeit at Wake Forest.  I would think he could go early to mid 2nd.

I would be surprised to see Bills’ pull the trigger on Farley with back surgery and no ability for their own Docs to examine him.  Great talent for sure, but a big risk this year.

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Gunner:  what do you think of Carlos Basham?  He isn’t the twitchy/explosive pass rusher that we would love to find, but he looks fairly fluid, has very good size and was productive, albeit at Wake Forest.  I would think he could go early to mid 2nd.

I would be surprised to see Bills’ pull the trigger on Farley with back surgery and no ability for their own Docs to examine him.  Great talent for sure, but a big risk this year.

 

I have a mid third on Basham. Just don't know how he wins in the NFL. Solid player, he will play in the league, and he will be a steady base end. But just not gonna beat NFL tackles enough for me to be higher on him.

[OldTimer1960]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I have a mid third on Basham. Just don't know how he wins in the NFL. Solid player, he will play in the league, and he will be a steady base end. But just not gonna beat NFL tackles enough for me to be higher on him.

Interesting.  Do you think he kind of compares with Epenesa in that regard?

[glazeduck]

Lot of good work put in here, unfortunately only 1, maybe 2 of these guys will still be on the board at 30. 

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

Just now, glazeduck said:

Lot of good work put in here, unfortunately only 1, maybe 2 of these guys will still be on the board at 30. 

You never know. Players you didn't expect to be first round picks (Damon Arnette last year) are taken because teams draft for need and not BPA. I never expected AJ Epenesa to available in round 2, but sometimes a guy falls to your pick and you get lucky.

[stinky finger]

57 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Gunner:  what do you think of Carlos Basham?  He isn’t the twitchy/explosive pass rusher that we would love to find, but he looks fairly fluid, has very good size and was productive, albeit at Wake Forest.  I would think he could go early to mid 2nd.

I would be surprised to see Bills’ pull the trigger on Farley with back surgery and no ability for their own Docs to examine him.  Great talent for sure, but a big risk this year.

 

I'm no doctor, but I got to believe this young buck heals.

 

 We'd be fortunate to him fall to us at #30.

 

 

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

18 hours ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

Love your list! Oweh would make me nervous but I'd be thrilled with pretty much anyone else.👍

Thanks! Yeah Oweh likely comes with the highest risk of the ten prospects I listed, but could also have the highest ceiling (he didn't start playing football until his junior year of high school and only played two seasons at Penn State). It's rare to be able to draft someone at #30 overall with his measurables and freak athleticism.

 

In some ways, you could think of Oweh as the edge rusher version of Josh Allen. Crazy physical traits with relatively little experience/snaps and underwhelming production. If he was the top-rated guy left when it's our turn, I'd trust that our coaching staff could develop him and the production would follow. 

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

18 hours ago, mjt328 said:

No Jaelen Phillips?  Or do you not think he has a chance of lasting until 30?

Phillips is a tricky one for me. He is an elite athlete and he probably would provide the most immediate impact of any of the edge rushers in this class. His tape is pretty special. 

 

I didn't include him on my list for a couple of reasons: 

1) As you said, I think he'll likely be selected before our pick at #30. Strictly based on talent alone, he's a top fifteen pick so I don't think he will slide that far.

2) Even if he did somehow fall to #30, his medical history is pretty scary and Beane mentioned at his pre-draft presser that teams didn't get a chance to examine the prospects' medicals as comprehensively as in past years. Phillips quit football after major concussion issues and left UCLA to pursue a music career, I think there is some question on whether he truly loves football. He's had ankle injuries and his left hand/wrist are basically mush after he was in a serious traffic accident (three bones removed). Worth noting that he's been rather healthy ever since he arrived at Miami, but who knows how many concussions he has left. I've also heard on a couple Bills podcasts I listen to that there are some behind-the-scenes rumors about Phillips that might put teams off. 

 

If we did pick Phillips, I could definitely get excited about his potential and talent, but he comes with a lot more risk than some of the other guys. 

 

 

[Solomon Grundy]

Chris Evans or Khalil Herbert can be nice grabs later in the draft. Evans is sneaky good

[FloridaDennis]

Hard pass on Kwity Paye. Saw this in recent article.

In a few days' time, he'll have one of the country's biggest possible megaphones -- an NFL platform -- and he has a very specific endgame in mind. He can be a Colin Kaepernick, he thinks, but for the issue of immigration.. .

 

[TheBeaneBandit]

37 minutes ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Phillips is a tricky one for me. He is an elite athlete and he probably would provide the most immediate impact of any of the edge rushers in this class. His tape is pretty special. 

 

I didn't include him on my list for a couple of reasons: 

1) As you said, I think he'll likely be selected before our pick at #30. Strictly based on talent alone, he's a top fifteen pick so I don't think he will slide that far.

2) Even if he did somehow fall to #30, his medical history is pretty scary and Beane mentioned at his pre-draft presser that teams didn't get a chance to examine the prospects' medicals as comprehensively as in past years. Phillips quit football after major concussion issues and left UCLA to pursue a music career, I think there is some question on whether he truly loves football. He's had ankle injuries and his left hand/wrist are basically mush after he was in a serious traffic accident (three bones removed). Worth noting that he's been rather healthy ever since he arrived at Miami, but who knows how many concussions he has left. I've also heard on a couple Bills podcasts I listen to that there are some behind-the-scenes rumors about Phillips that might put teams off. 

 

If we did pick Phillips, I could definitely get excited about his potential and talent, but he comes with a lot more risk than some of the other guys. 

 

 

Oh damn, I didn't hear that about Phillips hand! I mean, JPP is still doin it but that's a serious injury. He should of called Skynet and had them put in a Terminator hand lol.

[Rocky Landing]

It feels so strange drafting so far down the board. As we get closer to the draft, I find myself less, and less stuck on specific players, and more interested in who Beane ends up placing the highest value on by the time we pick. I'll be especially excited if we trade up, for no other reason than Beane seeing someone they are that excited about becoming available. Be that as it may, I suspect a lot of fans will be surprised.

 

Always love your work, @Dont Stop Billeiving. This is a really useful document.

 

 

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

19 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Disagree on Ojulari. He is 3-4 only to my eye. Decent all rounder, inconsistent hands, stonewalled by pro ready tackles. .

 

And Teven Jenkins is RT only. That is not first round value to me. Hard, hard pass.

 

Elijah Moore at #61 I'd love. Not at #30.

 

The rest I can pretty much be on board with.

Thanks @GunnerBill, I was really interested to get your take on this as I know you do a ton of pre-draft work/film study. Feel pretty good that we agree on 7 out of 10!

 

Some quick responses to the three guys you mentioned just for fun:

 

Ojulari is definitely undersized, but I thought I saw plenty of strength/sand to hold up against the run and his 34.5 inch arms give him the length to extend and rip through blockers. Only 5 pounds lighter than Jerry Hughes and the same height I believe. Has the elite bend and burst similar to the top pass rushers in the NFL and led the SEC in multiple defensive stats. Love his intangibles as well, really sounds like a McBeane player and person. 

 

Agree with what you said for Jenkins not being an LT (below average length for a tackle and tends to be a waist bender), but I want him because I think he can be an elite guard who is dominant in the run game. I know IOL isn't a great value in the first round, but we're picking late and Jenkins is huge, very athletic, experienced, and plays with an edge that I think our line needs. Think he could be an upgrade at either guard spot from Day 1 and he has the versatility to be a backup tackle if we need.

 

Moore seems to be shooting up draft boards at the moment. I feel like a lot of people had him listed as a mid to late Day 2 pick just a couple months ago, but that lately he's being talked about as a top 40 pick. Probably has something to do with his 4.35 40 Yard Dash time, but to be fair I think that speed translated when you watch him on film (unlike Rondale Moore IMO) and he's electric in space and after the catch. Needs to develop his route tree a bit and prove he can win downfield more often, but I think he's a good route runner with insane athletic ability who can learn from Beasley and Diggs and he could be the home run threat we need (I know our passing offense was elite last year, but I like the idea of re-investing in your strengths and elite speed is the one thing we currently lack). 

 

Out of curiosity, who (or what position) are you hoping for at #30? Cheers, not long to go now!

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Thanks @GunnerBill, I was really interested to get your take on this as I know you do a ton of pre-draft work/film study. Feel pretty good that we agree on 7 out of 10!

 

Some quick responses to the three guys you mentioned just for fun:

 

Ojulari is definitely undersized, but I thought I saw plenty of strength/sand to hold up against the run and his 34.5 inch arms give him the length to extend and rip through blockers. Only 5 pounds lighter than Jerry Hughes and the same height I believe. Has the elite bend and burst similar to the top pass rushers in the NFL and led the SEC in multiple defensive stats. Love his intangibles as well, really sounds like a McBeane player and person. 

 

Agree with what you said for Jenkins not being an LT (below average length for a tackle and tends to be a waist bender), but I want him because I think he can be an elite guard who is dominant in the run game. I know IOL isn't a great value in the first round, but we're picking late and Jenkins is huge, very athletic, experienced, and plays with an edge that I think our line needs. Think he could be an upgrade at either guard spot from Day 1 and he has the versatility to be a backup tackle if we need.

 

Moore seems to be shooting up draft boards at the moment. I feel like a lot of people had him listed as a mid to late Day 2 pick just a couple months ago, but that lately he's being talked about as a top 40 pick. Probably has something to do with his 4.35 40 Yard Dash time, but to be fair I think that speed translated when you watch him on film (unlike Rondale Moore IMO) and he's electric in space and after the catch. Needs to develop his route tree a bit and prove he can win downfield more often, but I think he's a good route runner with insane athletic ability who can learn from Beasley and Diggs and he could be the home run threat we need (I know our passing offense was elite last year, but I like the idea of re-investing in your strengths and elite speed is the one thing we currently lack). 

 

Out of curiosity, who (or what position) are you hoping for at #30? Cheers, not long to go now!

 

So I'd go Newsome if he is there. But Ossai > Ojulari as a developmental edge for the Bills scheme. Eichenberg > Jenkins as an olineman. Marshall or Dyami Brown > Moore at receiver. 

[SCBills]

22 hours ago, GVINCENT said:

Travis Ettiene... They are not going to stop the Chiefs or the Bucs anyway, so just keep the ball out of their hands. Run, baby run...

 

Id be ok with Etienne but definitely not because I want to “run, baby run..”.   He’d help there for sure, but he was electric for Clemson as being a release valve for Trevor Lawrence.   

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

On 4/24/2021 at 11:46 PM, OldTimer1960 said:

Interesting.  Do you think he kind of compares with Epenesa in that regard?

To me, I think of Basham as Shaq Lawson 2.0. Probably a solid player in the league (high floor/low ceiling type prospect) who will be a steady run defender and get 4-6 sacks each year based on his effort. Lacks the speed and bend of the top guys though. 

[OldTimer1960]

3 hours ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

To me, I think of Basham as Shaq Lawson 2.0. Probably a solid player in the league (high floor/low ceiling type prospect) who will be a steady run defender and get 4-6 sacks each year based on his effort. Lacks the speed and bend of the top guys though. 

If you believe the hand timed 40s, Basham ran 4.64.  I am not banging the table for him, but I do think he will go higher than many excpect.  I watched a few games of his (I am no scout) and I don’t  think that he is a big slug.