TSW Mock Draft 1.0 - Complete

[Virgil]

5 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

The poll is close. What time are you making the call @Virgil

Noon tomorrow maybe 

[Bill from NYC]

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Has Toney run a 40 yet?

 

All I can find is his recruiting 40 which was a laughable 4.69.  

Is he Roscoe Parrish Part II?

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:

Is he Roscoe Parrish Part II?

I think he’s a better route running, more powerful and explosive version of Roscoe.  That’s not to say he’s a special player...... roscoe was far from special, but had the special ability to stop and start on a dime.  I think toney has that ability plus more explosive East West movement. 
 

Roscoe is a very good comparison though. I just feel Toney is slightly bigger and a a bit more polished as a receiver.

 

rosoce played at 175lb, while toney is around 190

Edited March 29, 2021 by NewEra

[ExWNYer]

I had every intention of voting for Jaelan Phillips until I saw that JOK was still available. That floored me. Those are my top two choices. If the board actually falls that way for the Bills, it will be a really nice 'dilemma' for them. Good job by all of the TBD GMs thus far.

[H2o]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I think he’s a better route running, more powerful and explosive version of Roscoe.  That’s not to say he’s a special player...... roscoe was far from special, but had the special ability to stop and start on a dime.  I think toney has that ability plus more explosive East West movement. 
 

Roscoe is a very good comparison though. I just feel Toney is slightly bigger and a a bit more polished as a receiver.

 

rosoce played at 175lb, while toney is around 190

Toney reminds me of Dante Hall. 

 

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, H2o said:

Toney reminds me of Dante Hall. 

 

For sure.  Similar twitch but Hall was faster imo. I think toney may be a bit more of a threat as a wr.....but not by much just yet.  

[Virgil]

3 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

Is he Roscoe Parrish Part II?

That’s the third name I couldn’t think of. 
 

I said TJ Graham and Goodwin

[Bill from NYC]

47 minutes ago, Virgil said:

That’s the third name I couldn’t think of. 
 

I said TJ Graham and Goodwin

I don't know if this is true, but I remember hearing that while in Buffalo he opened his door, saw snow, and ran back inside. 

[Reed83HOF]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

I think he’s a better route running, more powerful and explosive version of Roscoe.  That’s not to say he’s a special player...... roscoe was far from special, but had the special ability to stop and start on a dime.  I think toney has that ability plus more explosive East West movement. 
 

Roscoe is a very good comparison though. I just feel Toney is slightly bigger and a a bit more polished as a receiver.

 

rosoce played at 175lb, while toney is around 190

I'm having a hard time with Toney, part of me loves him another part says risky...

 

I agree with your assessment 

[Virgil]

3 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

I'm having a hard time with Toney, part of me loves him another part says risky...

 

I agree with your assessment 

Because he’s not Ruggs.  Get over it 😋

[Reed83HOF]

2 hours ago, ExWNYer said:

I had every intention of voting for Jaelan Phillips until I saw that JOK was still available. That floored me. Those are my top two choices. If the board actually falls that way for the Bills, it will be a really nice 'dilemma' for them. Good job by all of the TBD GMs thus far.

JOK is s nice player, my question is what % snaps will he play game in game on our defense?  While we may like the strong nickel guy, is this investment for someone who will only be needed for a game or 2 to stop an elite TE (there are like 4 in the NFL) with it at the expense of a player who will play a higher % of snaps and can be used against multiple teams? There are a greater % of good to great and elite WRs vs TEs for instance....

 

Just a question/ thought to not fall in love with a position that won't be used a ton

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

I'm having a hard time with Toney, part of me loves him another part says risky...

 

I agree with your assessment 

Yeah, I’m having a hard time too.  I think he can be a nice complimentary weapon of the coaches use him correctly.....or a complete waste of a high pick in the wrong system.

 

Based on what we’ve seen so far, I think our offense needs more playmakers in the short passing game and he could develop into a very good slot receiver with the proper coaching (and learning from Cole).

 

or he could be a waste lol.  If his 40 is in the 4.5s, I don’t think we’d take him if he were available. If it’s lower, he could be an option 

[Reed83HOF]

2 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Because he’s not Ruggs.  Get over it 😋

He was the 1st WR off the board...

Just now, NewEra said:

Yeah, I’m having a hard time too.  I think he can be a nice complimentary weapon of the coaches use him correctly.....or a complete waste of a high pick in the wrong system.

 

Based on what we’ve seen so far, I think our offense needs more playmakers in the short passing game and he could develop into a very good slot receiver with the proper coaching (and learning from Cole).

 

or he could be a waste lol.  If his 40 is in the 4.5s, I don’t think we’d take him if he were available. If it’s lower, he could be an option 

I agree👍

[Just Joshin']

17 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Just looking at the picks so far I think this draft is pretty clearly a draft with around 18/20 consensus players. The first half of the first round is pretty settled. Of the first 19 picks the only one that ranked as a reach against my current board was Mac Jones who went at #15 and I have currently ranked at #32 - which as a reach for a Quarterback is a pretty understandable and normal sort of move. However, from pick 20 on the player rankings by my current board are:

 

20 - #46

21 - #41

22 - #18

23 - #52

24 - #55

25 - #16

26 - #51

27 - #42

28 - #25

 

I don't say any of that to have a dig at any of the guys as GMs for those teams. I'd be pretty surprised if Chazz Surratt or Javonta Williams ended up as first round picks but I think all of the guys people have taken in those spots have at least some chance to be first rounders. Rather, my point is when people ask me the question - as they seem to every year - "there are 32 picks in round 1 how can you say you only have 17 or 18 first round grades?" my answer is because there is a clear drop off in talent. There is a group of guys in every draft who are absolutely clear first round talents and are generally, especially for non-QBs, pretty scheme agnostic..... in a really good year that number is low 20s... most years it's high teens. 

 

The next group of players that comes after that generally there is a lot more divergence not just from amateur graders like me or the network talking heads but from teams too. I take someone like Asante Samuel who I discussed elsewhere earlier as an example. I imagine he is a lot higher on Tampa's board than on Buffalo's. It becomes very much about scheme and fit. Same with someone like Jayson Oweh from Penn State - great testing numbers at his pro day but there will still be 4 man front teams who look at him and conclude "too small to be an every down player" and drop him down the board because of it. 

#20 was Teven Jenkins.  You have at #46, Athletic article from this AM has him at 20th best.  Several others have him in mid 20's.  Alignment is rare even in the top 10.

[ExWNYer]

7 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

JOK is s nice player, my question is what % snaps will he play game in game on our defense?  While we may like the strong nickel guy, is this investment for someone who will only be needed for a game or 2 to stop an elite TE (there are like 4 in the NFL) with it at the expense of a player who will play a higher % of snaps and can be used against multiple teams? There are a greater % of good to great and elite WRs vs TEs for instance....

 

Just a question/ thought to not fall in love with a position that won't be used a ton

 

I don't "fall in love" with positions. In fact, I think if you have your heart set on one player in particular, you're setting yourself up for disappointment, especially when there will be 29 picks made before the Bills select (barring a trade/trades up, of course). I was commenting on who was there at 30 in this TBD mock. I've run a ton of mocks and, as of late, JOK was long gone before the Bills picked and Jaelan Phillips has increasingly been there. They both may very well be gone before the Bills pick and I'm fine with that but I would be more than happy with JOK (or Phillips). This isn't just about someone to plug and play for 2021, it's about roster building. He's big, fast, and explosive and can play three downs, if needed, or be used as a chess piece in sub packages. Add as much talent as possible and let the coaches figure out the rest.

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

JOK is s nice player, my question is what % snaps will he play game in game on our defense?  While we may like the strong nickel guy, is this investment for someone who will only be needed for a game or 2 to stop an elite TE (there are like 4 in the NFL) with it at the expense of a player who will play a higher % of snaps and can be used against multiple teams? There are a greater % of good to great and elite WRs vs TEs for instance....

 

Just a question/ thought to not fall in love with a position that won't be used a ton

 

I think he'd be on the field a lot. He can play as a linebacker in base and then he can play as a the big nickel in your nickel package and avoid needing to sub Taron in. He would be on the field less than a #2 corner, that is for sure.... I just think the talent level he has v the talent level of Tyson Campbell or Kelvin Joseph... I have a hard job leaving that on the board. Though I take entirely your point about a guy who plays 65% let's say of the snaps vs a guy who plays 95%. The question for the Bills is do they think he can play both spots to allow them to leave him on the field the majority of the time. Taron played 77% of the defensive snaps in 2020. How many of those do you still think you need Taron in on rather than just dropping JOK to nickel? That is the conundrum. Personally I think he gives them the ability to interchange formation without changing personnel. They would have to believe the same to pick him. 

8 minutes ago, Just Joshin' said:

#20 was Teven Jenkins.  You have at #46, Athletic article from this AM has him at 20th best.  Several others have him in mid 20's.  Alignment is rare even in the top 10.

 

Yea, for sure. But there is a pretty strong consensus on the top 17 or 18 guys in this class. They all (with the exception of JOK actually) flew off the board in this mock. That tell you there is a tier drop off around that point. Most people have Jenkins in that next tier but there are folks who have him near the top of it.... like the Athletic and others and guys like me who have him towards the bottom of it. My personal bug bear with him is that he is a RT only. I always knock guys I think that about in my grading system. 

[GunnerBill]

34 minutes ago, NewEra said:

or he could be a waste lol.  If his 40 is in the 4.5s, I don’t think we’d take him if he were available. If it’s lower, he could be an option 

 

Agreed. If he runs in the 4.5s I will drop him on my board. He looks fast out there v college kids but if he is running 4.55 with his playing style against NFL defenders then he is a late second round type talent. Pretty much the same as I had Laviska Shenault last year who I had a low 2 on. Toney I have a middle / high 2 on right now and expect to go late 1st round.... but it would change quickly if he times poorly. 

[ExWNYer]

41 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Yeah, I’m having a hard time too.  I think he can be a nice complimentary weapon of the coaches use him correctly.....or a complete waste of a high pick in the wrong system.

 

Based on what we’ve seen so far, I think our offense needs more playmakers in the short passing game and he could develop into a very good slot receiver with the proper coaching (and learning from Cole).

 

or he could be a waste lol.  If his 40 is in the 4.5s, I don’t think we’d take him if he were available. If it’s lower, he could be an option 

 

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agreed. If he runs in the 4.5s I will drop him on my board. He looks fast out there v college kids but if he is running 4.55 with his playing style against NFL defenders then he is a late second round type talent. Pretty much the same as I had Laviska Shenault last year who I had a low 2 on. Toney I have a middle / high 2 on right now and expect to go late 1st round.... but it would change quickly if he times poorly. 

 

Toney is turning into quite the enigma and I agree with you both that it will all come down to how fast he truly is. I am increasingly getting the feeling that whoever takes him will either have one of the steals of the draft or one of the biggest disappointments. There doesn't seem to be an in-between with him. He seems to be a huge risk/reward type of player. Just who is willing to pull the trigger and take that risk when the time comes is the question.

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

Is he Roscoe Parrish Part II?

 

 

No he's not as fast as Parrish.

 

Toney reminds me of a poor-man's Peter Warrick.

 

Warrick was seen as the most elusive WR college football had ever seen.........but he had only 4.56 speed(which today would probably read as 4.5 flat speed).

 

He was a good player but generally considered a major disappointment because the lack of speed didn't translate to the pros.

 

And that was a couple decades ago.........the back 7 of defenses are much faster now.

 

To me,  I wouldn't touch Toney in round 1 unless he runs a sub 4.4 40...........not worth the risk.........tons of good WR prospects in this draft it would be foolish to get yourself beat on day one.

 

[MAJBobby]

8 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

No he's not as fast as Parrish.

 

Toney reminds me of a poor-man's Peter Warrick.

 

Warrick was seen as the most elusive WR college football had ever seen.........but he had only 4.56 speed(which today would probably read as 4.5 flat speed).

 

He was a good player but generally considered a major disappointment because the lack of speed didn't translate to the pros.

 

And that was a couple decades ago.........the back 7 of defenses are much faster now.

 

To me,  I wouldn't touch Toney in round 1 unless he runs a sub 4.4 40...........not worth the risk.........tons of good WR prospects in this draft it would be foolish to get yourself beat on day one.

 

I have ToNet with a Mid 2nd round grade. I wouldn’t take him at 30. 62 yeah I would there.