Bills were 3rd biggest free agency spenders between 2017-2020, only team top five in spending with winning record over that time

[Jobot]

Shouldn't be that surprising considering the total roster rebuild and turnover that Beane/McDermott undertook.

[thurst44]

46 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

We had the highest paid D line in the league last season. 

 

Murphy, Star, and Addison were all pretty big contracts that haven't lived up to expectations. 

Can we maybe re-think this with Star?! The Bills had the #3 defense both years he was there and dropped to middle-of-the-pack when he was out. Could be purely coincidental, but also something to think about. Moreover, and not to keep beating this drum, but part of why he was brought in was to clog up the middle making it harder for QBs to step into that middle and complete intermediate passes and passes to tight ends. During his two years, Bills gave up the fewest yards to tight ends... this year they gave up the most. I know, correlation, causation, but I would love to see Cover 1 do a study of Star's impact. I'm just going off of what I've seen in games, what people said he should be good at when he came, and how the defense as a whole played when he was at the 1T as opposed to when he was out. 

 

Star was never going to get big numbers--that's not what he does. He's there to take up an extra blocker and make other players get more stats. 

 

Murphy had his moments, so I wouldn't call him as big bust, but hard to say he totally "lived up to expectations". Addison showed flashes, but definitely below expectations. However, I'd argue that McDermott and Beane probably feel that Star L. lived pretty well up to their expectations. And I'd add the Butler and Jefferson signings if we're going there, but I also kind of feel that the moves might have worked if it was a season with full preparation to get to where they wanted to be playing as a unit.

[Logic]

6 minutes ago, thurst44 said:

Can we maybe re-think this with Star?! The Bills had the #3 defense both years he was there and dropped to middle-of-the-pack when he was out. Could be purely coincidental, but also something to think about. Moreover, and not to keep beating this drum, but part of why he was brought in was to clog up the middle making it harder for QBs to step into that middle and complete intermediate passes and passes to tight ends. During his two years, Bills gave up the fewest yards to tight ends... this year they gave up the most. I know, correlation, causation, but I would love to see Cover 1 do a study of Star's impact. I'm just going off of what I've seen in games, what people said he should be good at when he came, and how the defense as a whole played when he was at the 1T as opposed to when he was out. 

 

Star was never going to get big numbers--that's not what he does. He's there to take up an extra blocker and make other players get more stats. 

 

Murphy had his moments, so I wouldn't call him as big bust, but hard to say he totally "lived up to expectations". Addison showed flashes, but definitely below expectations. However, I'd argue that McDermott and Beane probably feel that Star L. lived pretty well up to their expectations. And I'd add the Butler and Jefferson signings if we're going there, but I also kind of feel that the moves might have worked if it was a season with full preparation to get to where they wanted to be playing as a unit.

Thanks for this.

I've been beating the "Star is a crucial piece of our defense" drum since his first season with us. 

Even after seeing how much our defense regressed without him in 2020 -- and no, I'm not saying his absence was the ONLY reason they regressed -- any defense of Star will still often fall on deaf ears.

His consistently drawing double teams absolutely DOES free up the lighter, speedier members of our defense -- Oliver, Edmunds, Milano -- to make plays. His absence forced guys like Oliver and Jefferson to have to take snaps at 1T, which is a waste of their talents as penetrators. It also forced our linebackers to have to more often take on guards that would previously have been nullified by the d-line. Obviously, taking on guards is never going to be the strength of our linebackers.

We'll see what shape he comes back in this season, but if he's in shape and returns to his previous level of play, I'm willing to bet the Bills defense rebounds significantly.

Edited March 22, 2021 by Logic

[thurst44]

47 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Think this years struggles on defense have less to do with Star and more to do with a lack of pass rush from Lorenzo, Jordan Philips, and Shaq Lawson. 

 

Well, we'll see this year, won't we? We were 13-3 with a defense that went from 3 to 16* (not sure of this years actual finish, but know it was middle-of-the-pack) so we have that luxury. Phillips did not do much in Arizona. Shaq was a bigger loss than people think and when I watched him with the Dolphins he looked good--although he got injured a lot. You may be right, but we were also terrible against tight ends before he got here and it was one of the reasons they got Star.

 

Either way, what is your argument that he is NOT doing his job? Have you seen him out of position? Not being double-teamed? Have you done a deep-dive? Or is it just b/c many posters have decided it is so and/or he does not get stats? He's never going to get stats.

 

All I'm arguing is he was brought here to do specific things and all of those things were better in the years he was here than the year before and the opt out year. I'd love to see a deeper dive as I am no expert. I watch and read and try to pay attention, and I do recognize a trend to tend to look for the positive that could be bias, however, I've yet to see an argument against Star that uses logic and when I've watched him and based on what he was expected to do and what happened, and I can't help but feel the people who have dismissed Star as a bust are using lazy logic. Prove me wrong.

Edited March 22, 2021 by thurst44
I forgot to finish a sentence

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

1 hour ago, thurst44 said:

Can we maybe re-think this with Star?! The Bills had the #3 defense both years he was there and dropped to middle-of-the-pack when he was out. Could be purely coincidental, but also something to think about. Moreover, and not to keep beating this drum, but part of why he was brought in was to clog up the middle making it harder for QBs to step into that middle and complete intermediate passes and passes to tight ends. During his two years, Bills gave up the fewest yards to tight ends... this year they gave up the most. I know, correlation, causation, but I would love to see Cover 1 do a study of Star's impact. I'm just going off of what I've seen in games, what people said he should be good at when he came, and how the defense as a whole played when he was at the 1T as opposed to when he was out. 

 

Star was never going to get big numbers--that's not what he does. He's there to take up an extra blocker and make other players get more stats. 

 

Murphy had his moments, so I wouldn't call him as big bust, but hard to say he totally "lived up to expectations". Addison showed flashes, but definitely below expectations. However, I'd argue that McDermott and Beane probably feel that Star L. lived pretty well up to their expectations. And I'd add the Butler and Jefferson signings if we're going there, but I also kind of feel that the moves might have worked if it was a season with full preparation to get to where they wanted to be playing as a unit.

 

Star signed a 5 year $50 million contract. For that sort of deal I expected more than just occasionally being double teamed and eating up space in the middle. There was so much turnover on our defense from 2019 to 2020 that I think it's impossible to pinpoint how much of an impact Star opting out had. I think he's overpaid, and Beane/Mcdermott seem to agree (given they restructured his contract after 2019 season). Star restructured his contract after year 2 of a 5 year deal to take a fairly hefty paycut. That's not something that a guy "living up to expectations" would be doing. 

 

Murphy signed for 3 years 22 mil. While he made some plays over the 3 years he was mostly a non-factor, and a healthy scratch for much of the 2020 season. He really was the worst contract on the team last year. 

 

Addison signed for 3 years 30 mil. Another guy that made some plays, but was mostly a non-factor. He's already restructured his contract. 

 

 

 

 

 

[ndirish1978]

4 hours ago, Mango said:

To play devils advocate here, don’t we have one of the highest paid DL’s in the league?

Yes, we pooched those signings.

[thurst44]

49 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

Star signed a 5 year $50 million contract. For that sort of deal I expected more than just occasionally being double teamed and eating up space in the middle. There was so much turnover on our defense from 2019 to 2020 that I think it's impossible to pinpoint how much of an impact Star opting out had. I think he's overpaid, and Beane/Mcdermott seem to agree (given they restructured his contract after 2019 season). Star restructured his contract after year 2 of a 5 year deal to take a fairly hefty paycut. That's not something that a guy "living up to expectations" would be doing. 

 

Murphy signed for 3 years 22 mil. While he made some plays over the 3 years he was mostly a non-factor, and a healthy scratch for much of the 2020 season. He really was the worst contract on the team last year. 

 

Addison signed for 3 years 30 mil. Another guy that made some plays, but was mostly a non-factor. He's already restructured his contract. 

 

 

 

 

 

First off, if they could restructure, that was likely always a part of the plan. Although, truly, is 8m or so (as you've pointed out it's not 10m) really all that crazy for a 1T DT if he WAS one of the main reasons the defense played as it did in 2018 & 2019 and that they were the best team against tight ends. Yes, there could be many reasons, but when a player is brought in to fix a particular problem and when he is there that problem is gone and when he leaves it's back, that's quite the coinkidink you've got there. You act like being double-teamed and eating up space in the middle is something insignificant. He takes up another blocker and eats up space in the middle the way he's supposed to and it makes it all that much harder for the opposing QB to make that pass up the middle (or run); it frees up Oliver, Hughes, Epenesa, et al to wreak more havoc behind the line; that in turn makes it easier for Edmunds and Milano (and Poyer and Hyde even) to do their jobs covering receivers and TEs in the middle. We'll see what happens next year, but if the defense is back in the top 5 and suddenly we can guard tight ends again, maybe we can start giving the guy some credit. For 8m, to me, that's a pretty good deal in today's NFL.

 

As for Murphy, I was mostly agreeing with you. That said 7m does not seem that bad for a rotational DE who was a major part of some wins, but as you said, there were too many games when he was inactive, so, I'm fine he's gone and would have been fine if they had released him last season. 

 

Addison--I thought I was totally agreeing with you. I'm glad he's back because he had moments and I'll grant it was a weird year all around last year, but mostly because in interviews he's clearly a big part of the culture there and I'm glad he'll get the chance to prove his worth in what will hopefully be a more traditional year. That said, if he had not taken a pay cut, I would have been fine with his release. 

[Doc]

4 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

We had the highest paid D line in the league last season. 

 

Murphy, Star, and Addison were all pretty big contracts that haven't lived up to expectations. 

 

Star opt-ed out last season.  I saw the logic with Addison and him taking a pay cut this year was nice.  But Murphy was a head-scratcher. 

[TBBills]

But Beane hasn't done anything to upgrade the roster... 🤣🙄

[Don Otreply]

This information is bound to irritate a few posters here..., makes me chuckle a bit, 😁

[Doc]

12 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

What logic was that? 

 

Productive veteran DE to replace Lawson.  What else?

[JGMcD2]

I did some analysis on this a few months back before these numbers came out.  Information attached.

 

Gives some context to the success of McBeane in FA compared to other organizations. If you’re looking for a deeper dive into things. 

Edited March 22, 2021 by JGMcD2

[Mango]

I’m sort of taking this as a Beane reaction thread (leaving the McD draft and FA out, ie 2017).

 

He and McD as a tandem have been one of the best things to happen to this team in a VERY LONG time. The upcoming years will test his draft record pretty hard. 
 

QB- let’s get this out of the way. He hit on QB, even when a lot of us thought he missed (myself included). Because of this he gets a pass on other spots on the roster. Obviously the Peterman debacle was bad. Dog stayed healthy without reliance on Barkley, and Mitch is a major upgrade. Grade- rock hard. 
 

OL- He absolutely upgraded the line through FA. Morse, Williams, Feliciano, have all been important cogs. This is probably his best work in FA. Ford seems very “meh” at the moment. We all seem to be collectively holding our breaths for him to pan out as a second rounder. Most of us would also probably like Wyatt Teller back. Grade, B-. Holding the Teller trade and Fords lack of being impressive against him. He’s done above average here easily. 
 

RB- miss. Sorry guys. Singletary is at best meh right now. Moss looks like he could have some spark. But not enough...yet. Plus the Frank Gore experiment, not good. Grade- D, this has just not been a good group from Gore on. 
 

TE- Still a position of need. I would love a stud, but overall I am happy with the passing game so I am not going to grade Knox, Kroft, etc. terribly harshly. That was a serviceable group and look to be serviceable heading into 2021. Grade- C, they were “good enough”. We haven’t spent a lot of resources one way or the other. 

 

WR- You could make an argument that he did a better job overhauling the WR room than he did OL and I wouldn’t argue with you. Love this group with or without Brown. Davis looks to be a man waiting in the wings. Diggs, Brown, Beasley, all immediate contributors and game changers for how we play that side of the ball. Grade- A, Diggs alone raises this immensely. Plus Beasley, very good group. 

 

DL- Our best DLman is from Whaley still. We have way over spent on bad production. Harry seems like JAG. Oliver was out of position most of 2020, so who knows. Star, I’ll call a wash since this board is split. But his contract is a lot, and we ate a huge Dareus contract at the same time to sign him. The rest are JAG. Grade- below average. 
 

LB- I am underwhelmed. We traded up for Edmunds, so with that I am a bit underwhelmed. I am not high or low on him. To me he either has the right feel for the game on any given Sunday or he doesn’t. The difference when he is in the right rhythm/zone is astonishing to me. Milano is exciting when he can get his full snap count. At our current price without an Edmunds extension is OK. This group could face a lot of pitch forks and torches if we get 2020 production out of them for what could be $25M +. Grade- wait and see.  
 

DB- Tre was here first. Vontae quit. Norman is JAG at the moment. Wallace is great depth, you could do worse but could do better. Our safety tandem precedes him. Grade- FA/Draft has been average here. 

[Doc]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

I thought you meant keeping him around for another year.... that didn't make sense to me... especially with all the legitimate pass rushers available via FA.

 

The cap was a huge factor.  The legitimate pass rushers got $12M+/year in FA.

[BillsVet]

6 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Think this years struggles on defense have less to do with Star and more to do with a lack of pass rush from Lorenzo, Jordan Philips, and Shaq Lawson. 

 

Buffalo's 2019 schedule was 3rd easiest in the league.  Their 2020 strength of schedule was 12th hardest and it's a big reason why their defense slipped to middle of the pack ratings why.  

 

6 hours ago, Logic said:

Thanks for this.

I've been beating the "Star is a crucial piece of our defense" drum since his first season with us. 

 

And you've been wrong the entire time.  Why else would Buffalo demand SL take a pay cut last off-season?  And, if it weren't for COVID, probably sever the contract altogether before Star exercised his out-clause?

 

Players at the heart of a defense aren't candidates for pay cuts.  If this were a logical conclusion, other causes would be considered before arbitrarily pointing at Star's absence.  You've arrived at a cause that just happens to align with your opinion.  Perhaps if Star was a dominant interior DL then perhaps we could draw that conclusion, but their run defense was 10th in 2019 and 17th in 2020.  The average yards allowed only went from 103 to 119 yards per game.  

[Doc]

23 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Eh disagree... an extra $6 million from cutting Addison loose and they could def find a way to structure a contract for one of the legit pass rushers.  
 

Hendrickson and Lawson have big first year cap hits, but every other legit FA pass rusher that’s signed have very manageable first years....the Bills opted to keep Addison. Hope they aren’t kicking themselves when pressure from the edge is still non existent from him. 

 

There are 5 guys I'd consider calling legit beyond the ones you mentioned: Watt, Ngakoue and Okwara.  There are only two with a reasonable cap hit in 2021:  Owara, who re-signed with the Lions prior to the start of FA and Watt who the Bills pursued.

 

As for Lawson, he had 5.5 sacks.  Addison had 5.  And Hendrickson jumped from a 3-year career of 6.5 sacks to 13.5 last year. 

[Logic]

17 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Buffalo's 2019 schedule was 3rd easiest in the league.  Their 2020 strength of schedule was 12th hardest and it's a big reason why their defense slipped to middle of the pack ratings why.  

 

 

And you've been wrong the entire time.  Why else would Buffalo demand SL take a pay cut last off-season?  And, if it weren't for COVID, probably sever the contract altogether before Star exercised his out-clause?

 

Players at the heart of a defense aren't candidates for pay cuts.  If this were a logical conclusion, other causes would be considered before arbitrarily pointing at Star's absence.  You've arrived at a cause that just happens to align with your opinion.  Perhaps if Star was a dominant interior DL then perhaps we could draw that conclusion, but their run defense was 10th in 2019 and 17th in 2020.  The average yards allowed only went from 103 to 119 yards per game.  

The fact that the Bills overpaid for Star and that his contract is not a good value does not mean that he is not a good player who improves the defense. 

Star's presence has a positive impact on the defense. Star was overpaid in free agency. Both things can be true.

Here's Sean McDermott on Star:

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2019/10/29/sean-mcdermott-star-lotulelei-defends-buffalo-bills/

And here's Lorenzo Alexander and Leslie Frazier on Star:

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2019/01/bills-lorenzo-alexander-says-star-lotulelei-earned-every-bit-of-big-contract.html

Alexander:  “Obviously he (doesn’t play) a sexy position, but he allows other people around him to make plays,” Alexander said. “I’ve definitely been able to have a pretty good year this year. A lot of it is contributed to what he’s been able to do as far as keeping guys off me, allowing me to run free.

“In the pass rush, people can’t step up. On first or second down I know a couple of guys that have gotten sacks throughout the year just because Star has gotten that great push. He’s earned every bit of what he’s got with that five-year deal.”

Frazier: “He demands a double team which allows our linebackers to run free and make some of the tackles that people might think the nose tackle should be making. That has been a plus for us, helping our linebackers to improve. But also to help our run defense. He’s done a good job of commanding attention from their interior, their center and their guards. It’s hard to block him one-one-one and that’s what we needed and he’s given us that.”

So, respectfully, I disagree with you as far as Star's performance. He was overpaid, yes. But he's a good player who helps the Bills defense.

Edited March 23, 2021 by Logic

[billsfan89]

6 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Def hit big on some key additions.

 

The offensive line additions, Beasley, Brown, Diggs, Poyer, Hyde all Great pickups. 

 

Interestingly, the FA additions they've whiffed on have just about all been ex Panthers.... perhaps a good omen they haven't added one this offseason.🙌🏻

 

Looking at the ex-Panther signings and they haven't been good. KB was a complete bust. Butler was pretty bad most of 2020 (although to be fair to him he was out of position and played solid to end the season), Addision was mediocre but not tragic in 2020, Tolbert was very forgettable, Norman was OK but a bit of a disappointment and Starr has been a solid player but massively overpaid. The only one that was a huge hit was D.Williams who panned out in spades. 

 

I am glad to see that there haven't been any this season. I do think the Addison, Butler, Norman and D.Williams signings last season were mostly fueled by Covid creating a lot of uncertainty around the off-season and McBeane going with guys they knew over unknown guys. 

[Doc]

8 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

You can make a pretty easy argument that any of the free agent defensive ends signed to this point are better than Addison. The guy is washed and should be upgraded.... now if they can get Dunlap to rotate with him that would be ideal. 

 

The starter at RDE will likely be Epenesa, on whom they spent a fairly high draft pick, with Addison as his backup.  But if they can add Dunlap cheap, great.

[CincyBillsFan]

I still think this discussion begins and ends with Allen.  Had the Jets gambled and took him off the plate at #3 and we had drafted either Darnold or Rosen my guess is that we would have seen the following records:

 

2018 = 4 - 12

2019 = 7 - 9

2020 = 6 - 10.

 

Without Allen we don't sign Diggs in 2020 and signing Beasley/Brown would have been wasted with Rosen or Darnold at QB.

 

It's frightening how close we came to making it three lost decades.