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Breer: How the Bills Were Built


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Good read here:

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/01/22/gameplan-buffalo-bills-built-conference-championship-rosters

 

”And that brings us back to our jumping-off point here—which was that the Bills actually have fewerhome-grown players than the other conference finalists. That’ll change, Beane assures, because it has to.

 

Buffalo’s going to try to sign Allen long-term this offseason, and he’s not the only young star on that roster with big money on the horizon. In time, it’ll mean shifting the Bills’ model—only two of the team’s 14 biggest cap numbers for 2020 belong to homegrown guys, and those are to the first two draft picks of the Beane-McDermott Era, White and Dawkins, to sign big second contracts.

 

As more re-up, the margin for error shrinks, and Beane knows it. Which eventually will lead to the Bills’ chart look more like the Chiefs’, Packers’ and Bucs’.”

 

 

Edited by Coach Tuesday
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Always need to draft well because the players are cheap

 

In my opinion, Beane has only been so-so on the draft and has a propensity to trade up too often - and for players that don't pan out

 

I think the way to draft is to 

a. let the draft come to you

b. trade down to stockpile multiple picks since most picks (even first rounders) are crap shoots

 

Beane's savings grace has been that he can plug holes with good FA signings at reasonable prices

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This is actually a very good read.  It makes a lot of sense.  There are several parts of that article that are easy to forget since we are where we are now, but served as a great reminder and a true blueprint of how it all came together.  I will not lie, when McDermott and Beane came in and got rid of Sammy Watkins, Ronald Darby, Cordy Glenn, I was ready to see them leave town.  I was dead wrong. When they brought in Jordan Poyer, and other players from Carolina, I just thought it was more of the same.  Wrong again. What I did not realize is they had built a team and drafted a franchise QB, and used scouting and cap space, and a process that I doubted many times to make it to the 1st AFCCCG in 27 years.  Sometimes its good to be wrong. Go win the whole damn thing.  Go Bills!

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It’s surprising this interesting read about the evolution of the Bills with Beane and implied McD how they constructed a team, and the takeaway is Beane doesn’t draft well.

 

I looked at the 2017 drafts through 2020, and looked who is a contributor for us or another team like Teller.  McD and Beane (added McD as he ran 2017) and my benchmark was Bill Polian.  He has stated many times on air he tallied his drafts for his career and self reported he was 57% accurate at drafting contributors to his teams or later on another team.  Now he is in the HOF, and similar statements over the years have been made by Ron Wolf, and Gil Brandt.  The point wasn’t the %, but simply that it’s not practical to think a really high hit rate is attainable like 75-80%.  It just doesn’t happen, and furthermore they will say it’s about all of it meaning fair value in free agency, trades, finding gems in UDFA’s.  Polian has further said taking these very high priced free agents doesn’t necessarily work to build a team.  An example of a trade I don’t hear anyone complaining about is Diggs, or acquisitions for Poyer and Hyde.

 

If you start looking at these guys, an argument can be made they have made very wise decisions.

 

White

Milano

Dawkins

Teller even though not on our team

Allen

Edmunds

H. Phillips

T. Johnson

Neal

Oliver

Ford (jury is still out on him)

Singletary

Knox

D. Johnson

Sweeney (may still be a contributor, but has been hurt all year)

Epenesa (growing in skills his rookie year)

Moss

Davis

Fromm (we’ll never know as he is in witness protection this year, but is insurance)

Bassomatic

Dane Jackson (he has real promise)

 

Now there have definitely been several misses like Peterman and so on, but that doesn’t mean McBeane haven’t drafted well.  There are several examples of late round steals like Milano, Dane Jackson, G. Davis, and Taron Johnson.

 

My personal opinion is we have drafted well, have made many choices in FA that have worked, trades, and so on.  They built a team in four years that has manageable cap space, good team guys, made the playoffs three of four years, is going to the Championship game, and sustainable.

 

This was a very interesting read Coach so thank you, and provided a lot of insight into the evolution of the team.  I too have been frustrated with some misses, but then I’ve seen a number of players develop in time.  It’s more about perspective and expectations.  I haven’t been this excited about a Bills team, how it was constructed, and developed for sustainability growth over a long period of time.  Polian, the architect of our glory years seems to be unfolding again here with this Mgmt and coaching.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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What is the maxim?: "Everything rises and falls on leadership." This is another example.

 

Beane and McDermott had to make some hard decision early on. They were not popular at the time, but their vision for what could/should be, guided them. And here we are today. Still work to do, but getting oh so close to the ultimate reward.

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It underscores what we’ve been saying - the next hard part starts now (first hard part was getting a QB).  Once Allen gets paid, they have to become more efficient at drafting and pro personnel.  They’ve been good there - but they’ll need to be better than good if they want to stack rings.  It’s so hard - the Saints have drafted so well and they won only once with Brees.  You’ve got to really hit it out of the park in rounding out the roster when your QB is on a max deal.

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30 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

It underscores what we’ve been saying - the next hard part starts now (first hard part was getting a QB).  Once Allen gets paid, they have to become more efficient at drafting and pro personnel.  They’ve been good there - but they’ll need to be better than good if they want to stack rings.  It’s so hard - the Saints have drafted so well and they won only once with Brees.  You’ve got to really hit it out of the park in rounding out the roster when your QB is on a max deal.

The two work hand and hand. It could be said that Once you have your QB it’s not as critical to get stars at as many other roster spots. A great QB can cover up many roster deficiencies. The opposite isn’t generally true.

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24 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

If a 22 start second year player who’s now out on IR is Not planning out and tossing a fifth to move up 2 spots is too often, I’ll take it

 

You shouldn't take it - it was a horrible pick in terms of resource allocation and player selection.  No need to draft a guard that high and he's not even a good one - he came into his second season out of shape and unprepared, and looked like the worst starter in the NFL before leaving with an injury.  Plus DK Metcalf was the pick there.

Edited by Coach Tuesday
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I still don’t quite understand the Darby trade, but that and the Teller move are the only ones that really raise my eyebrows. 

 

This is the first time in a long time I can say I fully trust our guys to make the right moves for the team. No questions asked. 

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3 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

You shouldn't take it - it was a horrible pick in terms of resource allocation and player selection.  No need to draft a guard that high and he's not even a good one - he came into his second season out of shape and unprepared, and looked like the worst starter in the NFL before leaving with an injury.  Plus DK Metcalf was the pick there.

I think they believed he could be the RT which isn’t a bad pick since we were in serious need of one. 

 

Im okay not getting Metcalf because if we did we probably wouldn’t have traded for Diggs. I’m happy where we are. 

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16 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Good read here:

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/01/22/gameplan-buffalo-bills-built-conference-championship-rosters

 

”And that brings us back to our jumping-off point here—which was that the Bills actually have fewerhome-grown players than the other conference finalists. That’ll change, Beane assures, because it has to.

 

Buffalo’s going to try to sign Allen long-term this offseason, and he’s not the only young star on that roster with big money on the horizon. In time, it’ll mean shifting the Bills’ model—only two of the team’s 14 biggest cap numbers for 2020 belong to homegrown guys, and those are to the first two draft picks of the Beane-McDermott Era, White and Dawkins, to sign big second contracts.

 

As more re-up, the margin for error shrinks, and Beane knows it. Which eventually will lead to the Bills’ chart look more like the Chiefs’, Packers’ and Bucs’.”

 

 

This morning when I scanned TBD, I read the first word in your title as "Beer"....didn't have the sleep out of my eyes yet...

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6 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

It underscores what we’ve been saying - the next hard part starts now (first hard part was getting a QB).  Once Allen gets paid, they have to become more efficient at drafting and pro personnel.  They’ve been good there - but they’ll need to be better than good if they want to stack rings.  It’s so hard - the Saints have drafted so well and they won only once with Brees.  You’ve got to really hit it out of the park in rounding out the roster when your QB is on a max deal.

IF they can get Josh to agree to have his new deal start after his 5th year, then their "SB window" with this roster lasts two more years (and gets you two more drafts to add talent).   That is what you want; I do not know what is happening with his deal, but I believe pushing the giant cap hit out two years is possible.   If anyone gets wind of what Josh's deal is looking like from this perspective, sing out.   If the Giant Cap Hit is next year, then keeping this really cool team together is likely not possible.  

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