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Logic

Cover 1 article: Brandon Beane’s Draft tendencies

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Posted (edited)

Great article at the link below.

 

The reasoning makes absolute sense to me. While Beane spent premium capitol on the WR position and acquired a 26-year-old stud, he only put short term band-aids on the CB2 position (Norman, Gaines), the LE position (Addison), and the RT (Williams) and LB (Klein) positions.

 

As such, and given Beane’s penchant for “doubling down” on need positions in FA and the draft, it’s logical to expect early picks to be spent on EDGE, CB, RT, or LB, with a WR and RB only being taken in the later rounds.

 

 

https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-brandon-beane-nfl-draft-tendencies/

 

Since arriving in Buffalo, Brandon Beane has preached his desire to address needs in free agency to allow him the freedom to draft the best player available. Over his two offseasons in Buffalo, Beane has acquired 36 players between the conclusion of the regular season and the NFL Draft, and he’s drafted 16 players. Of these 16 players, only four of them were at a position that Beane did not address via free agency or a trade prior to the draft. Seventy-five percent of the drafted players are at a position that Beane had already acquired a player at earlier in the offseason.....

 

 

...After processing all of the information that’s been laid out above, it seems that Brandon Beane may be looking to address cornerback, right tackle, edge rusher, and/or linebacker in the draft. With the way that Beane has drafted in the past, I would say it’s highly unlikely to see a receiver drafted high, and the chances of a running back being drafted high aren’t favorable. However, it’s important to note that this is all speculation with no strict rule.

 

 

Edited by Logic
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Posted (edited)

Makes sense to me, though playing devil's advocate:

  1. It's been two drafts. Doesn't necessarily mean it's a trend more than it is a coincidence.
  2. I think it could be reasonably argued that the roster is in a different place now than it was the previous two years and therefore, our strategy may be different now.
  3. I don't think RB and safety can be written off just because we haven't addressed them yet (we also could theoretically still address them before the draft though I highly doubt we'd sign a safety).
  4. Given the strength of the WR class, there's a decent chance the BPA in the 2nd or 3rd round is a WR, in which case I don't think it can be written off either.

Overall though, I do tend to think our first pick will be in the secondary or trenches, and that fits this article's conclusion.

Edited by DCOrange
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I think he should have discussed his draft tendency to be aggressive and package picks (after acquiring picks too so he can be flexible) to move up for the guys he wants, which I am a big fan of.

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11 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Makes sense to me, though playing devil's advocate:

  1. It's been two drafts. Doesn't necessarily mean it's a trend more than it is a coincidence.
  2. I think it could be reasonably argued that the roster is in a different place now than it was the previous two years and therefore, our strategy may be different now.
  3. I don't think RB and safety can be written off just because we haven't addressed them yet (we also could theoretically still address them before the draft though I highly doubt we'd sign a safety).
  4. Given the strength of the WR class, there's a decent chance the BPA in the 2nd or 3rd round is a WR, in which case I don't think it can be written off either.

Overall though, I do tend to think our first pick will be in the secondary or trenches, and that fits this article's conclusion.

This.

 

i agree that we will likely select a Corner or the trenches with our 2nd rd pick

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12 minutes ago, Logic said:

Great article at the link below.

 

The reasoning makes absolute sense to me. While Beane spent premium capitol on the WR position and acquired a 26-year-old stud, he only put short term band-aids on the CB2 position (Norman, Gaines), the LE position (Addison), and the RT (Williams) and LB (Klein) positions.

 

As such, and given Beane’s penchant for “doubling down” on need positions in FA and the draft, it’s logical to expect early picks to be spent on EDGE, CB, RT, or LB, with a WR and RB only being taken in the later rounds.

 

 

https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-brandon-beane-nfl-draft-tendencies/

 

Since arriving in Buffalo, Brandon Beane has preached his desire to address needs in free agency to allow him the freedom to draft the best player available. Over his two offseasons in Buffalo, Beane has acquired 36 players between the conclusion of the regular season and the NFL Draft, and he’s drafted 16 players. Of these 16 players, only four of them were at a position that Beane did not address via free agency or a trade prior to the draft. Seventy-five percent of the drafted players are at a position that Beane had already acquired a player at earlier in the offseason.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In thus day...

 

yes teams have needs and compare what are what they can get in draft vs free agency.  What you got in free agency affects how you draft.

 

another factor is age of players on team and depth.  For example you have 2 vet CBs, you sign another 2 in free agency and you have 3-4 PS or depth prospects on your team.  In 2-3 yrs you know you may lose of of the 3 vets so you draft for long term depth not expecting anything from pick this year but in 2-3 years.

 

with rounds 1-3 you look for players who could step in now and help but know some positions it’s harder for a rookie to step in full time.

 

last year buffalo signed Yeldon and gore and still had shady.  All old so they needed younger. Wade was signed but he was a project.  Thry needed a RB of the future.  In today’s nfl rbs tend to take roles so it would durprise me if buffalo drafted another RB who had some differences to come,rmrnt what they currently have.

 

 

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I could see him standing pat at 2 and 3, and then packaging our 4th, 5th, 6th, 6th, and 7th to move back into the 3rd.

 

Get 3 quality picks who actually have a shot at making the team AND even contributing this year. After the 4th, I dont think there will be any talent there that could supplant current starters, or even current veteran depth.

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4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Stop trading up.  It’s annoying. 

 

Prepare to be annoyed.

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Just now, Philo said:

 

Prepare to be annoyed.

I know haha. 

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I could see him standing pat at 2 and 3, and then packaging our 4th, 5th, 6th, 6th, and 7th to move back into the 3rd.

 

Get 3 quality picks who actually have a shot at making the team AND even contributing this year. After the 4th, I dont think there will be any talent there that could supplant current starters, or even current veteran depth.

Ok, that’s fine.  

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2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I could see him standing pat at 2 and 3, and then packaging our 4th, 5th, 6th, 6th, and 7th to move back into the 3rd.

 

Get 3 quality picks who actually have a shot at making the team AND even contributing this year. After the 4th, I dont think there will be any talent there that could supplant current starters, or even current veteran depth.

 

Yup. I definitely see Beane looking to get back into the third round again this year. Not sure if it necessarily will require all that capital, but I fully support the line of thinking of "quality over quantity" with regard to picks this year. 

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6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Stop trading up.  It’s annoying. 

 

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

I know haha. 

Ok, that’s fine.  

 

Beane doesnt trade up in the same way Whaley and other GMs do.

 

He has flipped bubble players into late draft picks, and packages those new picks together to move around and maneuver when and where he needs to in order to get his guy.

 

Wyatt Teller for a 5th and 6th?!? Russell Bodine for a 6th?!? From the Pats no less!

 

All of those picks become expendable as maneuvering assets, and better used to ensure he gets his guy than just adding camp fodder who wont make the team anyways.

 

I dont think we're talking about packaging 54 and next year's 1st to get back into the 1st.

Just now, Philo said:

 

Yup. I definitely see Beane looking to get back into the third round again this year. Not sure if it necessarily will require all that capital, but I fully support the line of thinking of "quality over quantity" with regard to picks this year. 

 

Yeah, I made that up without the value chart handy just to make the point, haha.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

Beane doesnt trade up in the same way Whaley and other GMs do.

 

He has flipped bubble players into late draft picks, and packages those new picks together to move around and maneuver when and where he needs to in order to get his guy.

 

Wyatt Teller for a 5th and 6th?!? Russell Bodine for a 6th?!? From the Pats no less!

 

All of those picks become expendable as maneuvering assets, and better used to ensure he gets his guy than just adding camp fodder who wont make the team anyways.

 

I dont think we're talking about packaging 54 and next year's 1st to get back into the 1st.

I was thinking of more the Jones trade and the Edmunds (I really like him but it could be argued they could have drafted at the same spot and gotten two better players).   And it’s to early to say for sure on Allen.  
 

And besides the Sammy trade (who was one of the best college receivers I have ever seen), Whaley made some really good trades.  For EJ, he traded down and got Kiko, who became Shady.  And he also got Hughes for Sheppard.  Pretty decent.  

Edited by C.Biscuit97

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3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I was thinking of more the Jones trade and the Edmunds (I really like him but it could be argued they could have drafted at the same spot and gotten two better players).   And it’s to early to say for sure on Allen.  

 

Zay wasnt Beane tho :thumbsup:

 

And 2018 was an anomaly year, imo. We were STACKED with picks and it was the 1st draft of Beane's tenure where he needed to get a Franchise QB and "Franchise QB" of the Defense. Regardless of how Allen plays out, he was the right pick at the time, and Beane did what he had to in order to land him.


With the roster as set as it is, and where we are drafting, I dont expect any splashes. (Although, that probably means Beane will pull a Ditka and trade all picks to get back into the 1st, get 1 player, and be done. lol)

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As others have said, the first two years were about building a core roster.  This year may be more about fine tuning that roster as the core is largely in place.   

 

Another tendancy Beane has, IMO, is to look to the future when making his draft picks, focusing on guys who can step in in a year or two when current starters are no longer on the roster or have lost a step.    That's why Edge, CB and WR are still in play, in addition to RB, big nickle and O-line...

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44 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Stop trading up.  It’s annoying. 

 

Something I've noticed is how this team has been built, to this point at least, via UFA.  I remember years ago people here saying you can't build that way when Buffalo was known for not spending big.  McBeane seem to have turned that mindset on its head. 

 

The OL is largely UFA, as are 2 of their top 3 WR's.  Not to mention, the defense is loaded with guys acquired via UFA/SFA: Star, Addison, Murphy, Jefferson, Butler, Klein, Hyde, Poyer, Norman, E. Gaines. And this doesn't include all the guys who aren't here anymore. 

 

Interesting to see how Buffalo transitions personnel-wise from a team that replaces their UFAs who worked fairly well in the regime's first years to a team that drafts most of their starters. 

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I don't have a clue what Beane will do in the draft when it comes to trades.

The way he thinks on his feet and is always keeping his options open I don't think he knows how it will pan out.

 

He does make the draft fun and I can use a little of that right now!

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17 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Something I've noticed is how this team has been built, to this point at least, via UFA.  I remember years ago people here saying you can't build that way when Buffalo was known for not spending big.  McBeane seem to have turned that mindset on its head. 

 

The OL is largely UFA, as are 2 of their top 3 WR's.  Not to mention, the defense is loaded with guys acquired via UFA/SFA: Star, Addison, Murphy, Jefferson, Butler, Klein, Hyde, Poyer, Norman, E. Gaines. And this doesn't include all the guys who aren't here anymore. 

 

Interesting to see how Buffalo transitions personnel-wise from a team that replaces their UFAs who worked fairly well in the regime's first years to a team that drafts most of their starters. 

 

True, but I'd say they are also building through the draft. They simply havent had enough picks to build a team with yet.

 

White, Dawkins, Harry, Milano, Allen, Edmunds, T.Johnson, Oliver, Ford, Singletary... those are all core players. OL, DL, QB...

 

I'd also point out that a handful of UFAs they brought in were Beane draft picks, just through a different team. Addison, Star, Butler, Klein...

 

The good news is they are hitting pretty well on Draft Picks. At least 3 or 4 per draft, which is above average drafting in the NFL.

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I'll be somewhat annoyed if this team passes on a dynamic playmaker at RB or WR for a CB at 54. 

 

 

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Beane and McDermott trading up is all about targeting specific people. Trading up for Dawson Knox for example. Beane used picks 112 and 131 to move up and grab Knox. 112 wound up being Bryce Love and 131 was Wes Martin a backup guard. I'd rather have Knox. And I am sure the Redskins would rather have Knox too as they have a huge need at tight end.  

 

The next tight end taken after Knox was Trevon Wesco and Foster Moreau (who I like) was avalable at 137. I know it is cherry picking, but if you look at what was drafted between picks 96 and 131, it is nothing special besides Maxx Crosby. I would rather have one Dawson Knox over two meh players. Just to add, Maxx Crosby was picked at 106, I would have loved to have him, but again, it would have required a trade up from pick 112, and probably would have cost 131 anyway. So they targeted Knox. Time will tell if it was the right move, but Bryce Love and Wes Martin would have likely had trouble making the team last year. 

 

Our roster is even better than it was last year, and it is going to be very difficult for 7 rookies to crack the roster. So rather than lose draft picks for nothing when you cut them, ala Austin Proehl, use picks to trade up and target guys you are really confident can crack your roster. I think Beane and McDermott move about the board and grab 4-5 guys they have targeted. It did not work with Zay Jones, it looks promising with Knox. The idea of trading picks to get guys you want and have specifically targeted is a great philosophy. Now they might grab the wrong people, but the intent is correct. If this franchise had more guts in the past we would have had Ben Roethlisberger for the last 20 years. 

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16 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

True, but I'd say they are also building through the draft. They simply havent had enough picks to build a team with yet.

 

White, Dawkins, Harry, Milano, Allen, Edmunds, T.Johnson, Oliver, Ford, Singletary... those are all core players. OL, DL, QB...

 

I'd also point out that a handful of UFAs they brought in were Beane draft picks, just through a different team. Addison, Star, Butler, Klein...

 

The good news is they are hitting pretty well on Draft Picks. At least 3 or 4 per draft, which is above average drafting in the NFL.

 

Let's talk about whether these guys are core players when they're re-signed.  That's the indicator how management sees them, although not saying they cannot be. 

 

Of that list there I'd say only White and perhaps Dawkins are guarantees, both being 2017 picks and the former a 1st Team All-Pro. 

 

I'm still going to wait on the non-QBs until they've been in the league 2 years to evaluate them honestly.  And I think we can do that with Allen after this season. 

 

We Bills fans are seeing for the first time since the 90s a team transition from rebuilding to maintaining a solid roster.  

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