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HappyDays

Do the Patriots have a bottom 5 roster?

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I know we all smell blood in the water when it comes to the Cheaters...but, we. just gotta give this time and see it for real. Too early to say that.

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5 hours ago, BritBill said:


If McDermott can get 6 wins out of the Bills 2018 team then Belichick can get 8+ out of his current motley crew. 

 

Doubtful.  Especially this year.

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6 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Scarnecchia retired so the OL coaching will change. He was a fantastic coach.

 

I wouldn’t call their front 7 good either. They’re average at best IMO.

 

The Patriots are well coached all around. But I do agree Scarnecchia was a big part of their system but their O-line has good players. Tuney was an All-Pro Guard, Marcus Cannon a Pro-Bowl Caliber tackle, and Shaq Mason who is a quality guard. That O-line will still be a solid unit if fairly healthy. Their front 7 almost always looks meh but Billy B always manufactures quality play out of them. I also think the Pats having 4 picks in the top 100 in the draft is going to be key for them. I see them drafting a TE at pick 23 and then using their next 3 picks to add another WR and then a couple of front 7 players. 

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9 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

The Patriots are well coached all around. But I do agree Scarnecchia was a big part of their system but their O-line has good players. Tuney was an All-Pro Guard, Marcus Cannon a Pro-Bowl Caliber tackle, and Shaq Mason who is a quality guard. That O-line will still be a solid unit if fairly healthy. Their front 7 almost always looks meh but Billy B always manufactures quality play out of them. I also think the Pats having 4 picks in the top 100 in the draft is going to be key for them. I see them drafting a TE at pick 23 and then using their next 3 picks to add another WR and then a couple of front 7 players. 

 

I agree on the oline. They have really good football players up there. Yes Scarnecchia is a loss but they have players there. They don't, on paper have players on that front 7. Can Bill coach up some of what they have? Maybe. But will need to be one hell of a coaching job. And their number 1 need is a Quarterback. They have to find a way to make some room and get Andy Dalton in the building IMO. He could play in their scheme (not sure Cam could) and he would put them in contention for a playoff spot - though they'd still be outsiders rather than favourites.

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7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree on the oline. They have really good football players up there. Yes Scarnecchia is a loss but they have players there. They don't, on paper have players on that front 7. Can Bill coach up some of what they have? Maybe. But will need to be one hell of a coaching job. And their number 1 need is a Quarterback. They have to find a way to make some room and get Andy Dalton in the building IMO. He could play in their scheme (not sure Cam could) and he would put them in contention for a playoff spot - though they'd still be outsiders rather than favourites.

That’s kind of been my point throughout. They can be a playoff team but they aren’t just going to be 11-5 because of the uniform. That’s what I’m arguing with people. We are saying, “that’s one of the worst rosters in football but they will win 10+ games against the toughest schedule in football because they will.” That’s not a reasonable argument.
 

Belichick is amazing and will lead them to a better record than he should. If they don’t do something about QB that record is probably 6-10. That team just isn’t good. They have picks, BB and could add a QB. They don’t have a good cap situation and outside of Gilmore they don’t have stars. They lost a few of their best defensive players as well. The Pats have a chance to be okay but they aren’t just going to be good because they’re the Pats.

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Let’s just hope that this doesn’t mean they end up with the 1st pick and drafting Trevor Lawrence 🤮

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23 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree on the oline. They have really good football players up there. Yes Scarnecchia is a loss but they have players there. They don't, on paper have players on that front 7. Can Bill coach up some of what they have? Maybe. But will need to be one hell of a coaching job. And their number 1 need is a Quarterback. They have to find a way to make some room and get Andy Dalton in the building IMO. He could play in their scheme (not sure Cam could) and he would put them in contention for a playoff spot - though they'd still be outsiders rather than favourites.

 

I agree they need a QB badly but their cap is just horrid. I think Billy B could sign Winston as a stop gap project for cheap. Dalton is expensive and costs a pick or two. They could restructure a deal or two and sign Tuney to a long term deal that is backloaded to free up some space but they won't have much more than 15ish million to work with.

 

But the Pat's will be more competitive than people think. 

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I really think they are more scheme than individuals on defense.  Guys who have flourished in NE have not necessarily played well elsewhere.  Chandler Jones is an exception.   Lets wait and see, they are not a bottom 5 roster and will be in contention win 10 or more games.  People handing the division to the Bills might be disapointed.  There is reason to be more optimistic but people also underestimate the Jets.

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2 minutes ago, mattynh said:

I really think they are more scheme than individuals on defense.  Guys who have flourished in NE have not necessarily played well elsewhere.  Chandler Jones is an exception.   Lets wait and see, they are not a bottom 5 roster and will be in contention win 10 or more games.  People handing the division to the Bills might be disapointed.  There is reason to be more optimistic but people also underestimate the Jets.

 

The Patriots defense is usually 2-3 Pro-Bowl caliber players and 2-3 solid starters and then the rest is role players piecing together production in a limited role they are good at. They don't rely on needing a lot of talent but rather having a few key pieces around interchangeable parts.

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39 minutes ago, Talley56 said:

Let’s just hope that this doesn’t mean they end up with the 1st pick and drafting Trevor Lawrence 🤮

Although not in his DNA, that definitely is an option for Bill. Tanking wouldn't be that hard with Stidham.

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i cant believe they're going with that qb tandem.  i wonder if he tries for jalen hurts as a shot in the dark and drafts defense.  will be interesting to see what he does.  but they will win some games cause good defense and run game along with great coaching. 

 

wash, det, car,  jags, chargers all worse teams. 

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2 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I agree they need a QB badly but their cap is just horrid. I think Billy B could sign Winston as a stop gap project for cheap. Dalton is expensive and costs a pick or two. They could restructure a deal or two and sign Tuney to a long term deal that is backloaded to free up some space but they won't have much more than 15ish million to work with.

 

But the Pat's will be more competitive than people think. 

 

Dalton is expensive but he has no guaranteed money at all. So if the Pats trade for him conditional on him accepting a new deal there is little to no reason for Dalton not to renegotiate. His cap hit is $17m and he is a FA after this season. Let's say I agree to send a 4th round pick to the Bengals contingent on Dalton agreeing a new deal. I say to him "you get the chance to come here and start" there are no other starting jobs open... maybe the Chargers but they seem happy to lose with Tyrod if they need to. And I say look, sign for 3 years, $40m and I will guarantee the $17m that you are currently due this season and we will give that money to you now, day 1. But we will amortise that across the contract as a signing bonus. I'm also going to guarantee you a base salary of $3m in 2020. So the deal looks like 3 years, $40m, $20m guaranteed and breaks down something like:

 

2020 - $5.5m Gtd bonus + $3m Gtd salary = cap hit of $8.5m

2021 - $5.5m Gtd bonus + $12m salary (non gtd) = cap hit of $17.5m (but dead cap of $11m if they cut him)

2022 - £5.5m Gtd bonus + $14m salary (not gtd) = cap hit of $19.5m (dead cap a manageable $5.5m)

 

The Pats don't have long term structural cap issues they have a cap crunch in 2020 mainly because they are spending nearly $30m on people who won't be on their roster... almost like the Bills were two years ago. There is plenty of flexibility to get Dalton into the fold if they want to do it. I see no reason why Dalton would not agree to a contract broadly in that ball park and with an opportunity to start.

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14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Dalton is expensive but he has no guaranteed money at all. So if the Pats trade for him conditional on him accepting a new deal there is little to no reason for Dalton not to renegotiate. His cap hit is $17m and he is a FA after this season. Let's say I agree to send a 4th round pick to the Bengals contingent on Dalton agreeing a new deal. I say to him "you get the chance to come here and start" there are no other starting jobs open... maybe the Chargers but they seem happy to lose with Tyrod if they need to. And I say look, sign for 3 years, $40m and I will guarantee the $17m that you are currently due this season and we will give that money to you now, day 1. But we will amortise that across the contract as a signing bonus. I'm also going to guarantee you a base salary of $3m in 2020. So the deal looks like 3 years, $40m, $20m guaranteed and breaks down something like:

 

2020 - $5.5m Gtd bonus + $3m Gtd salary = cap hit of $8.5m

2021 - $5.5m Gtd bonus + $12m salary (non gtd) = cap hit of $17.5m (but dead cap of $11m if they cut him)

2022 - £5.5m Gtd bonus + $14m salary (not gtd) = cap hit of $19.5m (dead cap a manageable $5.5m)

 

The Pats don't have long term structural cap issues they have a cap crunch in 2020 mainly because they are spending nearly $30m on people who won't be on their roster... almost like the Bills were two years ago. There is plenty of flexibility to get Dalton into the fold if they want to do it. I see no reason why Dalton would not agree to a contract broadly in that ball park and with an opportunity to start.

 

I think the Bengals are looking to hold onto Dalton for one more year, I think they draft Joe B and try and sit him for a year or at least until their bye week. The Bengals still don't have a good O-line and their receiving core is mediocre even if AJ Green has a decent season. There is no reason to subject a rookie to that at least not for a full season. I think they are keeping Dalton for one more year unless he explicitly asks for a trade. 

 

I don't think a 4th rounder is enough for the Bengals to part with him and if the cost is a 3rd rounder or higher I think I would rather have Jamis on a 2 year 10.5 million dollar deal. Between Jamis and Dalton I think their talent levels are similar but Dalton is the better fit for the Pats*. However I think Jamis might be the kind of reclamation project at QB the Pats* would take advantage of. His corrected vision I think is going to help him see the field better and cut down on a lot of turnovers. I also think being in a stable environment like New England could help him. Jamis in Tampa was always asked to be a dynamic playmaker which led him to forcing a lot of the action. In NE he would be more of a game manager which is a role better suited for him to learn the game. 

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1 minute ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I think the Bengals are looking to hold onto Dalton for one more year, I think they draft Joe B and try and sit him for a year or at least until their bye week. The Bengals still don't have a good O-line and their receiving core is mediocre even if AJ Green has a decent season. There is no reason to subject a rookie to that at least not for a full season. I think they are keeping Dalton for one more year unless he explicitly asks for a trade. 

 

I don't think a 4th rounder is enough for the Bengals to part with him and if the cost is a 3rd rounder or higher I think I would rather have Jamis on a 2 year 10.5 million dollar deal. Between Jamis and Dalton I think their talent levels are similar but Dalton is the better fit for the Pats*. However I think Jamis might be the kind of reclamation project at QB the Pats* would take advantage of. His corrected vision I think is going to help him see the field better and cut down on a lot of turnovers. I also think being in a stable environment like New England could help him. Jamis in Tampa was always asked to be a dynamic playmaker which led him to forcing a lot of the action. In NE he would be more of a game manager which is a role better suited for him to learn the game. 

 

Maybe. I think if Dalton asked to be traded after the draft the Bengals would trade him. 

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38 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I think the Bengals are looking to hold onto Dalton for one more year, I think they draft Joe B and try and sit him for a year or at least until their bye week. The Bengals still don't have a good O-line and their receiving core is mediocre even if AJ Green has a decent season. There is no reason to subject a rookie to that at least not for a full season. I think they are keeping Dalton for one more year unless he explicitly asks for a trade. 

 

I don't think a 4th rounder is enough for the Bengals to part with him and if the cost is a 3rd rounder or higher I think I would rather have Jamis on a 2 year 10.5 million dollar deal. Between Jamis and Dalton I think their talent levels are similar but Dalton is the better fit for the Pats*. However I think Jamis might be the kind of reclamation project at QB the Pats* would take advantage of. His corrected vision I think is going to help him see the field better and cut down on a lot of turnovers. I also think being in a stable environment like New England could help him. Jamis in Tampa was always asked to be a dynamic playmaker which led him to forcing a lot of the action. In NE he would be more of a game manager which is a role better suited for him to learn the game. 

 

I agree.  Bungles would be foolish to trade Dalton for a mid round pick.  They got the top pick in every round this year already.

Dalton is the perfect guy to have around for the rookie QBs first year and he only costs 17 million.

 

Having Dalton around for camp/preseason is valuable and there is always the possibility a starter goes down in the off season or

beginning of the season and then maybe they would consider a trade.

 

If I was Dalton I'd stay put, make some money and enter the FA QB market next year after the dust settles this year with all the QB shake ups.

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On 3/24/2020 at 5:33 PM, HappyDays said:

Joe Marino talked about this a bit on today's Locked on Bills podcast.

 

The Patriots lost three front 7 starters in Van Noy, Collins, and Shelton. They have questions on offensive line and the offensive talent. They arguably have the worst QB depth chart in the league.

 

And help isn't coming in free agency. They owe Brady $13.5 million in dead cap and they only have $2.1 million in available cap space.

 

Are we looking at a bottom 5 roster? Bottom 10 at best?

 

Any other coach I would say yes they very well could be.

 

With BB there...I will never count them out until I see it on the field.  I mean lets say they get a healthy Cam...then bottom 5 they are no more.  Not saying they go to SB or anything crazy, but I doubt they finish as a bottom 5 team if Cam was healthy all year.  

 

But I would love to see them be bottom 5, so fingers crossed :)

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Posted (edited)

Brady covered a lot of holes on that team. 

 

This year is going to be fascinating. Do we finally see if it was Brady or Belichick all along who made that team great?

 

Belichick got 11 wins out of Matt Cassel, but has a suspect record predating Brady.

 

I'm not saying the Pats will tank in 2020, but the rumor has been Belichick would not leave the cupboards bare for his successor. The Pats got the most comp picks in 2020, and will again in 2021. Comp picks can now be traded. i wouldn't be surprised if the Pats move picks this year for next and just absolutely load up for a run at a QB in 2021.  

Edited by Clemfield2622

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6 hours ago, KGun12TD said:

I know we all smell blood in the water when it comes to the Cheaters...but, we. just gotta give this time and see it for real. Too early to say that.

We're so conditioned to be cautious at this point.  Too many offseasons where it seemed like the Pats were ready to decline, then went 14-2 or something like that.

 

This is it, though.  If BB makes the playoffs this year, he made a deal w/ the devil.  

 

Pats fans know it, too.  A lot of discussion on their boards is centered around "will you still be a fan now that the dynasty is over?", and stuff like that.  We don't even see the usual Pats trolls here anymore, either (unless I've missed it).

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Just to add:  I've spent some time perusing Pats message boards since Brady's announcement (it's a real testament to how damaged I've been by that team that I relish the small pleasures such as their fans openly admitting to sobbing when they heard the news).

 

But what a different perspective. I guess when you win for 20 years, you lose sight of what it takes to build a team from the ground up. The level of delusion there on what is involved with a rebuild is very high.

 

I know they have BB, but they think that they'll just have 1-2 down years and be right back in Super Bowls after that.  Like a rebuild is a "just add water" thing and everything goes according to blueprint.

 

Here's wishing them a 2-decade long search for a franchise QB, like we had, and many 7-9/8-8 seasons in the interim (so they are always picking around 10-11).

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On 3/24/2020 at 7:46 PM, billsfan89 said:

They have a top 10 defense and a top 5 special teams unit. Their O-line was banged up a lot last season, when healthy (and they retained their All-Pro guard) they are one of the top 5 or 10 O-lines in the league, they have a stable of quality RB's and a good receiving option in Eddleman. They also have Mo Sanu and their 1st round pick from 2019 as reclamation projects at WR. They are also one of the best coached teams in the league and they have 4 selections in the top 100 in the draft. I wouldn't write them off from being a competitive team. A good defense alone can win you 5 or 6 games. 

 

Their QB situation is ass but they might have a better system in place to foster good play out of a ***** QB. Overall I think the Pats* aren't dead until I see the steak through their heart. Secretly I hope they win 5 games so that they are bad but not Trevor Lawrence bad. 

 

 

well they loaded (overpaid) up on some key special team players except the most important one, kicker.  

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35 minutes ago, Success said:

Just to add:  I've spent some time perusing Pats message boards since Brady's announcement (it's a real testament to how damaged I've been by that team that I relish the small pleasures such as their fans openly admitting to sobbing when they heard the news).

 

But what a different perspective. I guess when you win for 20 years, you lose sight of what it takes to build a team from the ground up. The level of delusion there on what is involved with a rebuild is very high.

 

I know they have BB, but they think that they'll just have 1-2 down years and be right back in Super Bowls after that.  Like a rebuild is a "just add water" thing and everything goes according to blueprint.

 

Here's wishing them a 2-decade long search for a franchise QB, like we had, and many 7-9/8-8 seasons in the interim (so they are always picking around 10-11).

That’s not out of the realm of possibility. We see teams rebuild in a 2 years time span all the time..... but yes, I hope they crash and burn.

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They can afford to have a bottom 5 roster. When you have a top 2 coaching staff. BB gets the best out of other teams trash!

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Posted (edited)
On 3/25/2020 at 6:03 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

 

 

They lost 2 key LBs, their weapons are awful, OL average and have the worst QB situation in the league. This Pats team is not going to be good unless something drastic changes between now and the start of the season (ie healthy Cam goes there and is the Cam of 5 years ago). This team is like a 6 win team.  
 

 

I wonder if their OL really is even average.  Last time Scarnecchia retired their line was suddenly terrible.  With him, it seemed he could plug in guys off the street and make it work.  I am curious what will happen to the line this time he retires

 

Edited by fergie's ire

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Didn’t see it mentioned specifically yet but Harmon was an underrated piece of their secondary and a significant loss for the Pats as well as the more obvious big names. Think he had 7-8 picks over the past two seasons. 

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Belichick has done much in the past with what may have appeared to be an average roster at the start of a given season.  I don't think the Patriots can ever be counted out while he is HC.

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