Astro's "Pick-Six" Discussing the upcoming 2020 Bills Draft

[MAJBobby]

http://billsmafia.com/2020/01/27/astros-pick-six-february-buffalo-bills/

 

Its a good read in terms of players value at the assigned pick..  little taste

 

"Just like we did over the holidays, it’s time to pick six prospective players at each of the Bills’ nine picks. We’ll do this based on player value, fit with the Bills’ archetype, positional need, and work ethic. My “Pick Six”, if you will. You will often see these names grabbed by the Bills in the DraftTek mocks, and they will undoubtedly change as we get closer and closer to April 23–25, 2020."

 

"ROUND 1, Pick 22
Laviska Shenault WR Colorado
Tee Higgins WR Clemson
K’Lavon Chaisson OLB LSU
Xavier McKinney S Alabama
Mekhi Becton OT Louisville
Henry Ruggs III WR Alabama

The Best Value on DraftTek Big Board: Shenault.
The Biggest Reach on DraftTek Big Board: Chaisson.
The Most Interesting Stat: Shenault’s 78.2% catch rate to Higgins’ 65.6%

Who I’m Picking: Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado. He was so versatile that Daboll’s drooling right now. The Buffs used him in slot, outside WR, H-back, tailback, TE, wildcat QB, and even a punt return (54 yards). He outweighs Higgins by 20 pounds. That’s before wings."

[Big Turk]

I really really like what I am reading and the highlights I have seen of Shenault...he is big, strong, fast and quick and can be used in so many ways.  Outside, Slot, out of the backfield, etc...I think he would be a great fit as an almost X-factor in our offense.  And he has a cool ass name hahaha

Edited January 27, 2020 by matter2003

[The Jokeman]

2 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

I really really like what I am reading and the highlights I have seen of Shenault...he is big, strong, fast and quick and can be used in so many ways.  Outside, Slot, out of the backfield, etc...I think he would be a great fit as an almost X-factor in our offense.  And he has a cool ass name hahaha

I'll have to see his measureables as https://www.si.com/2014/04/15/sammy-watkins-clemson-nfl-draft

[zevo]

It’s so early on these guys...there is going to be so much movement on the boards based on pro days and combine...but nonetheless always interesting

[PetermansRedemption]

25 minutes ago, zevo said:

It’s so early on these guys...there is going to be so much movement on the boards based on pro days and combine...but nonetheless always interesting

I’m pretty much in the camp where I hope pro days and combine doesn’t move ones stock TOO much. The only way I like to see a pro day or combine move someone’s stock is if both are abysmal. The. I want that guy pushed down the board slightly. I am of the school that believes the most important evaluation tool is game tape, and it’s not even close. 

Edited January 27, 2020 by PetermansRedemption

[Lurker]

I worry that an x-factor "RB playing WR" who's a great athlete but not (yet) a great route runner isn't the guy to step in an help Josh right away.   Shenault can do a lot of things, but that's sort of a problem for me, in that this offense is very complex and Josh is still learning how to anticipate/read defenses.

 

I'd much rather get a WR who's a good route runner and has the size we need than a gadget-type who might take a while to settle into the NFL...

[zevo]

3 minutes ago, Lurker said:

I worry that an x-factor "RB playing WR" who's a great athlete but not (yet) a great route runner isn't the guy to step in an help Josh right away.   Shenault can do a lot of things, but that's sort of a problem for me, in that this offense is very complex and Josh is still learning how to anticipate/read defenses.

 

I'd much rather get a WR who's a good route runner and has the size we need than a gadget-type who might take a while to settle into the NFL...

The best route runner has been deemed to be Jeudy.

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, Lurker said:

I worry that an x-factor "RB playing WR" who's a great athlete but not (yet) a great route runner isn't the guy to step in an help Josh right away.   Shenault can do a lot of things, but that's sort of a problem for me, in that this offense is very complex and Josh is still learning how to anticipate/read defenses.

 

I'd much rather get a WR who's a good route runner and has the size we need than a gadget-type who might take a while to settle into the NFL...

 

Brown a legit Route Runner, Beasley one of the best.  You can even sign another "Vet" while Shenault expands his route tree.

[Lurker]

5 minutes ago, zevo said:

The best route runner has been deemed to be Jeudy.

 

Well, yeah.  But he'll be long gone by the Bills pick.

 

I'm talking about the best guy available at 22 (or there abouts) who fills the Bills need for a big WR...

 

3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Brown a legit Route Runner, Beasley one of the best.  You can even sign another "Vet" while Shenault expands his route tree.

 

Right now, I think Shenault's route tree is about the same as Foster's.   

 

If we sign AJ Green, then OK, he can marinate.   But if he's expected to step in and be effective from day one (with all the pressure that entails), I'd like to see what the alternatives are...

 

Edited January 27, 2020 by Lurker

[MAJBobby]

Just now, Lurker said:

 

Well, yeah.  But he'll be long gone by the Bills pick.

 

I'm talking about the best guy available at 22 (or there abouts) who fills the Bills need for a big WR...

 

 

Right now, I think Shenault's route tree is about the same as Foster's.   

 

If we sign AJ Green, then OK, he can marinate.   But if he's expected to step in and be effective from day one (with all the pressure that entails), I'd like to see what the alternatives are...

 

But it really isnt like Fosters.

 

Due to being treated as a do-it-all player within the offense and wearing multiple hats, his details as a route runner have suffered. An average technician overall, his sense of angles and route directions are dull. That’s a result of not really having a home as a player prior to his junior season. There has been gradual improvements shown since a coaching change following the 2018 season.  

 

Glides into his stems with urgency and generates strong vertical push. Fairly sudden snapping off routes and he makes good adjustments on the fly against zone coverage. Has a bit of segmentation executing horizontal breaks but it’s still fluid relative to his size. Has a second gear at the top of routes to create separation. Dynamic to all levels of the field. Excellent footwork at the line of scrimmage helps him gain early leverage. 

 

He ran a much more diverse tree in 2019, although timing in these patterns may be a work in progress; wasn't constantly targeted despite separation. Beats press with physical hands/suddenness. Love ability to break off route stems at hard angles. Wins to all levels. 

[TFBillsfan]

4 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Well, yeah.  But he'll be long gone by the Bills pick.

 

I'm talking about the best guy available at 22 (or there abouts) who fills the Bills need for a big WR...

"IF" Jeudy was still on the board at 15 or 16, curious if we would move up and get him? Thoughts?

[The Jokeman]

9 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Well, yeah.  But he'll be long gone by the Bills pick.

 

I'm talking about the best guy available at 22 (or there abouts) who fills the Bills need for a big WR...

CeeDee Lamb might be there, yet he isn't big but has drawn comparisons to DeAndre Hopkins/Odell Beckham Jr by some which give us a legitimate #1 WR if lived up to those comparisons.

Edited January 27, 2020 by The Jokeman

[thenorthremembers]

If Ruggs, Higgins, and Shenault are all available there is absolutely no way you should take Shenault, none.   If Ruggs measures 6'0 190, and runs a 4.22 liked expected he needs to be the guy, with another larger compliment being drafted in the 4th round like Bryan Edwards, or Collin Johnson.

 

Ruggs is better than Shenault in every aspect of playing wide receiver, including blocking which is kind of crazy given he is 30 pounds lighter.  

 

If Jeudy, Lamb, and Ruggs are all gone by the time the Bills pick I'd expect them to go EDGE or Corner.

[Kirby Jackson]

15 minutes ago, Lurker said:

I worry that an x-factor "RB playing WR" who's a great athlete but not (yet) a great route runner isn't the guy to step in an help Josh right away.   Shenault can do a lot of things, but that's sort of a problem for me, in that this offense is very complex and Josh is still learning how to anticipate/read defenses.

 

I'd much rather get a WR who's a good route runner and has the size we need than a gadget-type who might take a while to settle into the NFL...

 

11 minutes ago, zevo said:

The best route runner has been deemed to be Jeudy.

That’s part of the reason I think a trade up for Jeudy is possible. If he lasts to the teens (which he probably won’t) the Bills will be on the phone. They say he’s as good of a route runner as they’ve ever graded at this point. To me that says “smallest learning curve” and “highest floor.” Receivers often take some time to adjust but Jeudy will enter the league ready to go. 

5 minutes ago, TFBillsfan said:

"IF" Jeudy was still on the board at 15 or 16, curious if we would move up and get him? Thoughts?

22, a 3rd and 4th....something like that

[Lurker]

Just now, MAJBobby said:

But it really isnt like Fosters.

 

Due to being treated as a do-it-all player within the offense and wearing multiple hats, his details as a route runner have suffered. An average technician overall, his sense of angles and route directions are dull. That’s a result of not really having a home as a player prior to his junior season. There has been gradual improvements shown since a coaching change following the 2018 season.  

 

Glides into his stems with urgency and generates strong vertical push. Fairly sudden snapping off routes and he makes good adjustments on the fly against zone coverage. Has a bit of segmentation executing horizontal breaks but it’s still fluid relative to his size. Has a second gear at the top of routes to create separation. Dynamic to all levels of the field. Excellent footwork at the line of scrimmage helps him gain early leverage. 

 

He ran a much more diverse tree in 2019, although timing in these patterns may be a work in progress; wasn't constantly targeted despite separation. Beats press with physical hands/suddenness. Love ability to break off route stems at hard angles. Wins to all levels. 

 

I watched three of his games this year, because I was initially on his band wagon.  I came away being more worried than impressed.   

 

College football is full of do-it-all players who have a hard time transitioning to 'perfect this' roles in the NFL.    I actually think Shenault might be a better RB in today's NFL game than a WR.   Especially for a west coast Rams/Chiefs-type offense.     He might eventually be a great asset in the Bills scheme, but I want more of a traditional big WR to compliment Brown and Beasley...

 

 

[thenorthremembers]

2 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

I watched three of his games this year, because I was initially on his band wagon.  I came away being more worried than impressed.   

 

College football is full of do-it-all players who have a hard time transitioning to 'perfect this' roles in the NFL.    I actually think Shenault might be a better RB in today's NFL game than a WR.   Especially for a west coast Rams/Chiefs-type offense.     He might eventually be a great asset in the Bills scheme, but I want more of a traditional big WR to compliment Brown and Beasley...

 

 

He is a hard study.  Colorado was absolutely abhorrent to watch on offense, the offensive line had Montez scrambling before he was able to catch the snap, and Montez was incredibly inaccurate.

 

That said, Shenault doesnt run a full route tree, doesn't turn the corner like a guy you'd be picking in the 1st round, and is very inconsistent blocking.   He was a good wideout at the college level, but he isn't some 6'2 220 burner who is a lock to go in the 1st round.  

[Big Turk]

17 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

But it really isnt like Fosters.

 

Due to being treated as a do-it-all player within the offense and wearing multiple hats, his details as a route runner have suffered. An average technician overall, his sense of angles and route directions are dull. That’s a result of not really having a home as a player prior to his junior season. There has been gradual improvements shown since a coaching change following the 2018 season.  

 

Glides into his stems with urgency and generates strong vertical push. Fairly sudden snapping off routes and he makes good adjustments on the fly against zone coverage. Has a bit of segmentation executing horizontal breaks but it’s still fluid relative to his size. Has a second gear at the top of routes to create separation. Dynamic to all levels of the field. Excellent footwork at the line of scrimmage helps him gain early leverage. 

 

He ran a much more diverse tree in 2019, although timing in these patterns may be a work in progress; wasn't constantly targeted despite separation. Beats press with physical hands/suddenness. Love ability to break off route stems at hard angles. Wins to all levels. 

 

Route running is something that can be learned.  I guess they will have to figure out if they believe he can become good at it once he focuses more on it or if they don't think he can.

[MAJBobby]

Just now, matter2003 said:

 

Route running is something that can be learned.  I guess they will have to figure out if they believe he can become good at it once he focuses more on it or if they don't think he can.

Did go watch him 4 times, there is something to be said by the amount of visits they took out to CO

[Lurker]

28 minutes ago, TFBillsfan said:

"IF" Jeudy was still on the board at 15 or 16, curious if we would move up and get him? Thoughts?

 

Can't see Indy at 13 passing on him.  They have a huge need at WR.    The Bills would have to trade with the Raiders for the #12 pick to move ahead of them...

 

8 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Did go watch him 4 times, there is something to be said by the amount of visits they took out to CO

 

Yeah.   They did their DD.   

 

But he'd be a bit of a project and I'm not sure the Bills are set up for that this year...

 

Edited January 27, 2020 by Lurker

[GunnerBill]

37 minutes ago, PetermansRedemption said:

I’m pretty much in the camp where I hope pro days and combine doesn’t move ones stock TOO much. The only way I like to see a pro day or combine move someone’s stock is if both are abysmal. The. I want that guy pushed down the board slightly. I am of the school that believes the most important evaluation tool is game tape, and it’s not even close. 

 

For sure. Most movement around team boards at this stage comes from the senior personnel guys re-grading tape over the road scouts initial grades. Most movement around media boards (ie. guys shooting up or sliding down) are simply the media guys catching up to where teams really value these guys.  

[2003Contenders]

25 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

That’s part of the reason I think a trade up for Jeudy is possible. If he lasts to the teens (which he probably won’t) the Bills will be on the phone. They say he’s as good of a route runner as they’ve ever graded at this point. To me that says “smallest learning curve” and “highest floor.” Receivers often take some time to adjust but Jeudy will enter the league ready to go. 

22, a 3rd and 4th....something like that

 

 

Sounds about right. Regarding the positioning, this is pretty much the identical trade-up that the Bills made back in 2018 to get Edmunds (going from 22 to 16, I believe). That trade required the #3 (1st pick of the 3rd round) that we acquired from the Browns for Tyrod.

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

I really really like what I am reading and the highlights I have seen of Shenault...he is big, strong, fast and quick and can be used in so many ways.  Outside, Slot, out of the backfield, etc...I think he would be a great fit as an almost X-factor in our offense.  And he has a cool ass name hahaha

He's really not as fast as some people are making him to be

 

He isn't slow but he isn't an NFL burner

 

There are lots more polished pure WRs in the class. I think he falls down the board a bit

[MAJBobby]

41 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Can't see Indy at 13 passing on him.  They have a huge need at WR.    The Bills would have to trade with the Raiders for the #12 pick to move ahead of them...

 

 

Yeah.   They did their DD.   

 

But he'd be a bit of a project and I'm not sure the Bills are set up for that this year...

 

Their QB was a project as well and they traded up for him because the ceiling was just so high. 

[Lurker]

21 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Their QB was a project as well and they traded up for him because the ceiling was just so high. 

 

But year four is the "Go!" year in the process.    No more time to wait for McBeane.    Either it comes together this year, or they'll start to get fitted for the hot seat...

 

 

Edited January 27, 2020 by Lurker

[LABILLBACKER]

1. Shenault 

2. Pittman (trade up)

3. Joshua Kelly

[MAJBobby]

10 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

But year four is the "Go!" year in the process.    No more time to wait for McBeane.    Either it comes together this year, or they'll start to get fitted for the hot seat...

 

 

ok and no WR in the first round will matter one way or another. In the grand scheme of next year. To be honest I don’t think they take Shenault only because I don’t think he will be there. But to say they Won’t  because his route tree is raw (though has really improved in 2019) when they traded up for a Super Raw QB is a little weird. 

Edited January 27, 2020 by MAJBobby

[Happy]

I like a RT in the second round since there is no way Ford can be handed the RT position.

If we take EDGE in rounds 5B and 6B it means Beane will have to buy one in FA.  These guys would be depth, like Daryl Johnson last year.

[Lurker]

11 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

ok and no WR in the first round will matter one way or another. In the grand scheme of next year. To be honest I don’t think they take Shenault only because I don’t think he will be there. But to say they Won’t  because his route tree is raw when they traded up for a Super Raw QB is a little weird. 

 

Well, we'll agree to disagree.   I think there is a time and place to take developmental prospects vs. more polished ones.   

 

Last year would have been the perfect example.    The Bills were focused on getting better, but didn't yet have a roster capable of making a deep playoff run.     So more flexibility to take a kid that had to spend time learning the ropes--sort of like Ed Oliver.    Ed had a great year, but he was in a rotation and actually saw Phillips move ahead of him at one point.

 

This year, the expectations have to be higher.  Especially if Josh is taking that next step.    More polished kids from top programs who've competed in big games--and can (theoretically) step right in and contribute.   Like guys from LSU, Alabama etc. versus lesser programs.     

 

At least that's what I'd do if I was Beane...

 

Edited January 27, 2020 by Lurker

[MAJBobby]

4 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Well, we'll agree to disagree.   I think there is a time and place to take developmental prospects vs. more polished ones.   

 

Last year would have been the perfect example.    The Bills were focused on getting better, but didn't yet have a roster capable of making a deep playoff run.     So more flexibility to take a kid that had to spend time learning the ropes--sort of like Ed Oliver.    Ed had a great year, but he was in a rotation and actually saw Phillips move ahead of him at one point.

 

This year, the expectations have to be higher.  Especially if Josh is taking that next step.    More polished kids from top programs who've competed in big games--and can (theoretically) step right in and contribute.   Like guys from LSU, Alabama etc. versus lesser programs.     

 

At least that's what I'd do if I was Beane...

 

that is what I was trying to get at. I wanted to see your scouting Bias. So Shenault is getting downgraded because he played for Colorado 

[Lurker]

8 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

that is what I was trying to get at. I wanted to see your scouting Bias. So Shenault is getting downgraded because he played for Colorado 

 

Nope.   Because he's a jack of all trades, rather than accomplished positional player.    I give kids from the big SEC schools an extra plus.   But lesser school kids can overcome that (i.e., Ed Oliver) if they have the right tools and development potential.

 

The bottom, line for me is that this year is different.    They have to think like a team that's busting through the door, not getting ready for next year or the one after that.    Shenault would be dynamite playing for Andy Reid on the Chiefs with all the talent around him.   In Buffalo, he'd be the Great WR Hope, with hugh immediate expectations.   If he came in and played like Knox did this year (not a bad comparison in terms of playing experience), then it would be a 'miss' rather than a 'hit' to me... 

 

Edited January 27, 2020 by Lurker

[MAJBobby]

4 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Nope.   Because he's a jack of all trades, rather than accomplished positional player.    I give kids from the big SEC schools an extra plus.   But lesser school kids can overcome that (i.e., Ed Oliver) if they have the right tools and development potential.

 

The bottom, line for me is that this year is different.    They have to think like a team that's busting through the door, not getting ready for next year or the one after that.    Shenault would be dynamite playing for Andy Reid on the Chiefs with all the talent around him.   In Buffalo, he'd be the Great WR Hope, with hugh immediate expectations.   If he came in and played like Knox did this year (not a bad comparison in terms of playing experience), then it would be a 'miss' rather than a 'hit' to me... 

 

ok I get what you are thinking. However Drafts never change for me. It is always about the Future more than the present. 
 

the Present is addressed in UFA. 
 

I think he can do what Metcalf did in year one. And if he does that Bills are making a run again

Edited January 27, 2020 by MAJBobby

[JustWinPlease]

2 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

http://billsmafia.com/2020/01/27/astros-pick-six-february-buffalo-bills/

 

Its a good read in terms of players value at the assigned pick..  little taste

 

"Just like we did over the holidays, it’s time to pick six prospective players at each of the Bills’ nine picks. We’ll do this based on player value, fit with the Bills’ archetype, positional need, and work ethic. My “Pick Six”, if you will. You will often see these names grabbed by the Bills in the DraftTek mocks, and they will undoubtedly change as we get closer and closer to April 23–25, 2020."

 

"ROUND 1, Pick 22
Laviska Shenault WR Colorado
Tee Higgins WR Clemson
K’Lavon Chaisson OLB LSU
Xavier McKinney S Alabama
Mekhi Becton OT Louisville
Henry Ruggs III WR Alabama

The Best Value on DraftTek Big Board: Shenault.
The Biggest Reach on DraftTek Big Board: Chaisson.
The Most Interesting Stat: Shenault’s 78.2% catch rate to Higgins’ 65.6%

Who I’m Picking: Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado. He was so versatile that Daboll’s drooling right now. The Buffs used him in slot, outside WR, H-back, tailback, TE, wildcat QB, and even a punt return (54 yards). He outweighs Higgins by 20 pounds. That’s before wings."

A safety, really? That's about the last thing we need, unless he can play CB.

Also, not sure why Chaisson is seen as a reach at pick 22...he will definitely be gone in the top-25 picks, he's a stud.

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, JustWinPlease said:

A safety, really? That's about the last thing we need, unless he can play CB.

Also, not sure why Chaisson is seen as a reach at pick 22...he will definitely be gone in the top-25 picks, he's a stud.

that is what is valued in that area according to Astros Rankings. And yes I also see Chaisson as a reach at 22 as an Edge 

Edited January 27, 2020 by MAJBobby

[Lurker]

2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

ok I get what you are thinking. However Drafts never change for me. It is always about the Future more than the present. 
 

the Present is addressed in UFA. 
 

I think he can do what Metcalf did in year one. And if he does that Bills are making a run again

 

Drafts are always about the future.   But sometimes the future is Now! rather than later.    I think this is one of those years.   

 

If Josh doesn't step up this year, the house of cards might start to wobble.    I don't want any excuses for why he didn't get the right kind of help he needs to take that step (against a tough, tough schedule)... 

[JustWinPlease]

Just now, MAJBobby said:

that is what is valued in that area according to Astros Rankings. And yes I also see Chaisson as a reach at 22 

It doesn't really jive with the "fit with the Bills" and "positional need" part of his explanation.

 

Don't see it with Chaisson, I think he's a top-25 player all day...wouldn't want the Bills to draft him though, simply because I'm Team "WR or Bust."

[MAJBobby]

3 minutes ago, JustWinPlease said:

It doesn't really jive with the "fit with the Bills" and "positional need" part of his explanation.

 

Don't see it with Chaisson, I think he's a top-25 player all day...wouldn't want the Bills to draft him though, simply because I'm Team "WR or Bust."

I have him as a Tier 1 (1st round grade) LBer

and a Tier 2 (2nd round grade) Edge 

[JustWinPlease]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

I have him as a Tier 1 (1st round grade) LBer

and a Tier 2 (2nd round grade) Edge 

So he'd be a reach for the Bills, but not so much for a 3-4 team in the same spot, is basically what you're saying?

I'm still holding out hope that Vosean Joseph can take Alexander's spot...but wouldn't be opposed to a LB in the 3rd or 4th round.

[MAJBobby]

2 minutes ago, JustWinPlease said:

So he'd be a reach for the Bills, but not so much for a 3-4 team in the same spot, is basically what you're saying?

I'm still holding out hope that Vosean Joseph can take Alexander's spot...but wouldn't be opposed to a LB in the 3rd or 4th round.

Yep. I don’t think he translates well to a 4-3DE. 
 

 

[JustWinPlease]

2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Yep. I don’t think he translates well to a 4-3DE. 
 

 

How about RB...is there a big workhorse type of RB that we could pair with Singletary?

Or is that more of a free agency thing?

[MAJBobby]

Just now, JustWinPlease said:

How about RB...is there a big workhorse type of RB that we could pair with Singletary?

Or is that more of a free agency thing?

there are a bunch. Depends what round you really want to take a RB. I like the kid from LSU in the 3rd or Eno Benjamin in the 3rd