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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19


Hedge

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News from the front:

 

Had our first dine in restaurant dinner tonight in over three months for the wife’s birthday tonight. The restaurant was full and only saw two patrons with masks. The whole staff wore masks however. On the drive home down PCH it appeared that every restaurant was full. The streets were full and the traffic was heavy. Looks like The OC is back open for business. ?

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18 hours ago, Magox said:

The most in depth data driven look that I have seen on deaths due to the lockdowns.

 

 

I'm glad somebody is tracking this and as bad as they are I expected these numbers to be higher.  Especially the suicide/drug abuse deaths.   My inkling is both lockdown deaths and the covid-19 deaths are both underreported.  It's impossible to tell whether without these lockdowns how many more covid deaths there would have been so I'm sure this will be a debate that goes on for years on whether they were unnecessary, too strict, just right, or not strict enough.

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6 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Dude...maybe you’re not aware but this is an Internet chat room! If you want to have private conversations this is not the venue.

 

I’m still proud of you for quoting some source. 

 

6 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

 


 

PS: We know, we know, you’re REALLY concerned about the virus. 


It’s shut down our economy. I’m concerned about that in a big way as we all should be and remains my big concern about the virus. I’m watching the data to see if it will affect it further. 
 

Pretty much zero concern about the actual virus. If I get it, I’ll likely be ok. If not, oh well. We all cash out chips in at some point. 

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22 hours ago, Magox said:

The most in depth data driven look that I have seen on deaths due to the lockdowns.

 

 


That’s wildly loosely done, and even if you say none of his excess pneumonia deaths are Covid (a pretty bad assumption) his excess 2020 deaths are a smallish portion of the total excess deaths and it is not comparing the impact of shutdown-lives-saved vs shutdown-lives-lost, which would be a more appropriate comparison when measuring the impact of the shutdown on deaths. 
 

That guy has some pretty sloppy math at times, including the fact that in his own chart above, some of his numbers don’t even match! His twitter followers lap him up like he’s posting infallible assumptions. I applaud efforts though you have to question someone so sloppy. 

Edited by shoshin
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3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I'm glad somebody is tracking this and as bad as they are I expected these numbers to be higher.  Especially the suicide/drug abuse deaths.   My inkling is both lockdown deaths and the covid-19 deaths are both underreported.  It's impossible to tell whether without these lockdowns how many more covid deaths there would have been so I'm sure this will be a debate that goes on for years on whether they were unnecessary, too strict, just right, or not strict enough.


 

Yeah, he’s done really good work.  The most in depth work that I have followed on Twitter.  The other guys who I follow which do great work as well primarily just aggregate data.

 

This guy aggregates the data compares it to other data and puts in formulas to come to conclusions. He’s been right with his predictions up to now every step of the way.   
 

He cuts through all the vacuous panic porn analysis that is out there.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Magox said:


 

He’s been right with his predictions up to now every step of the way.   
 

He cuts through all the vacuous panic porn analysis that is out there.

 

 


Sure he has. Sure he does. 
 

Care to explain this stupid and wildly wrong bit of fear porn prediction?
 


The food is running out!!!

Edited by shoshin
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9 hours ago, Chef Jim said:

News from the front:

 

Had our first dine in restaurant dinner tonight in over three months for the wife’s birthday tonight. The restaurant was full and only saw two patrons with masks. The whole staff wore masks however. On the drive home down PCH it appeared that every restaurant was full. The streets were full and the traffic was heavy. Looks like The OC is back open for business. ?

trending on Twitter

 

BTW,apropos of nothing, came to our place in DC last night for first time since late April . We live essentially in area called Adams Morgan, about a mile from White House. So sad to see so much boarded up even up here.

 

Went to dinner last night at a place actually near the White House, protests were two block over.,..not living  here full time  we just never put two and two togetherr and did not hit us where we were going until Uber dropped us off 3 blocks away as street was closed off with some kind of huge military vehicle.

 

We decided to ga anyway, had a lovely meal outside on a perfect night, surrounded by boarded up buildings. Walked over to  the protest for a few minutes after dinner..was more just a big party...and finally got my wife to get a scooter account and ride one home as not a Taxi  or Uber to found..well, Uber was around but wanted $35 for a mile ride.

 

She has a great time, and is now hooked !

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3 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

trending on Twitter

 

BTW,apropos of nothing, came to our place in DC last night for first time since late April . We live essentially in area called Adams Morgan, about a mile from White House. So sad to see so much boarded up even up here.

 

Went to dinner last night at a place actually near the White House, protests were two block over.,..not living  here full time  we just never put two and two togetherr and did not hit us where we were going until Uber dropped us off 3 blocks away as street was closed off with some kind of huge military vehicle.

 

We decided to ga anyway, had a lovely meal outside on a perfect night, surrounded by boarded up buildings. Walked over to  the protest for a few minutes after dinner..was more just a big party...and finally got my wife to get a scooter account and ride one home as not a Taxi  or Uber to found..well, Uber was around but wanted $35 for a mile ride.

 

She has a great time, and is now hooked !

I worked on a few of the newer buildings in that area! If you're there as we get closer to sports time check out Grand Central

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Yesterday, Saturday, once again no states reported triple digit deaths...NYS was down to 50 from daily highs that approached 1,000 at the peak. 35 states were in single digits with 20 reporting zero Covid 19 deaths. New cases are up in some of the states that hadn’t seen the high deaths counts early on but so far it doesn’t appear to be correlating to fatalities.

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2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Yesterday, Saturday, once again no states reported triple digit deaths...NYS was down to 50 from daily highs that approached 1,000 at the peak. 35 states were in single digits with 20 reporting zero Covid 19 deaths. New cases are up in some of the states that hadn’t seen the high deaths counts early on but so far it doesn’t appear to be correlating to fatalities.

 

I think when they figured out blood clots,pneumonia  to this virus among other things with this virus. Finding out how to help people better.Most days under 100 deaths and everything else single digit deaths. 

 

China yesterday has 41 cases highest in two months.

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1 minute ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

I think when they figured out blood clots,pneumonia  to this virus among other things with this virus. Finding out how to help people better.Most days under 100 deaths and everything else single digit deaths. 

 

China yesterday has 41 cases highest in two months.

That’s good to know. We certainly bought ourselves time, and my hope is that time was put to good use by the scientific community. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I worked on a few of the newer buildings in that area! If you're there as we get closer to sports time check out Grand Central

Know it well.  Our place is about a block and a half from there, walked by yesterday and they were actually open and have people outside having lunch. I am more of an exile’s guy when it comes to Buffalo Sports, about two blocks over on U Street

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1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Yesterday, Saturday, once again no states reported triple digit deaths...NYS was down to 50 from daily highs that approached 1,000 at the peak. 35 states were in single digits with 20 reporting zero Covid 19 deaths. New cases are up in some of the states that hadn’t seen the high deaths counts early on but so far it doesn’t appear to be correlating to fatalities.

 

I don't know that these counts tell us a lot. Watch hospitalizations and deaths...while keeping only half an eye on case counts. 

 

The hospitalization data, however, blows chunks. If you've spent any time digging into the state hosp data, you know how horrible it is. It's strange because I have no doubt every hospital can tell you nearly instantly what their capacity and availability is and I'd think states could gather this. But they seemingly cannot do it consistently well. For PA, I've only seen the hospitalization data start to be clear in the last 10 days. Before that, there were still wild swings of hundreds of cases in and out depending on the data dumps. 

 

 

 

 

Edited by shoshin
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I know the panic is over because one of the most over protective wives in the neighborhood actually allowed me to hang with her husband in the back yard. 

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20 hours ago, Chef Jim said:

News from the front:

 

Had our first dine in restaurant dinner tonight in over three months for the wife’s birthday tonight. The restaurant was full and only saw two patrons with masks. The whole staff wore masks however. On the drive home down PCH it appeared that every restaurant was full. The streets were full and the traffic was heavy. Looks like The OC is back open for business. ?

 

Happy birthday Mrs Chef.

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5 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

I don't know that these counts tell us a lot. Watch hospitalizations and deaths...while keeping only half an eye on case counts. 

 

The hospitalization data, however, blows chunks. If you've spent any time digging into the state hosp data, you know how horrible it is. It's strange because I have no doubt every hospital can tell you nearly instantly what their capacity and availability is and I'd think states could gather this. But they seemingly cannot do it consistently well. For PA, I've only seen the hospitalization data start to be clear in the last 10 days. Before that, there were still wild swings of hundreds of cases in and out depending on the data dumps. 

 

 

 

 

Once again in an effort to keep things simple, I’ve focused consistently (90 days now from the same site) on a single statistic....deaths. That’s the baseline in my scientific methodology. They can always fudge numbers on cases, new cases, and hospitalizations...but it’s hard to argue with deaths. You’re either dead or you’re not. It’s not a perfect analysis for sure but it’s simple and easy to track in a chat room. 

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