The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

47 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Let me simplify this, again. We now KNOW for a fact that Covid 19 is a virus that impacts OLD people (65 and over) and even then it generally only impacts old people with an already compromised immune system or previous health condition. Period. You can judge for yourself if you’re in one of those categories or will interact regularly with someone who is. If so, be careful and considerate of them. If not, go about your life and forget about all of this outward social mask shaming.

You have the wrong guy for this post. I'm not feeling shamed about anything.  I'm doing an emotional calculation, and that emotional calculation is no different than others that I do with regularity. 

 

People I love are in the target zone, and that impacts my thought process to a large degree. I believe strongly that the numbers quoted as fact are anything but factual, at least insofar as how mortality rates are typically calculated during normal times.

 

When all is said and done, it costs me .50c and blocking my winning smile to maybe make a difference.  I don't see that as a major step toward being shipped out to a govt re-education camp, but I understand that you might. There are elements of the govt overreach that I believe are, for example, this whole tracing scenario with apps being downloaded concerns me greatly.  On the other hand, Google location services does as well and here I am.

 

Wear your seat belt. 

51 minutes ago, Foxx said:

https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1255302275821690882

 

https://twitter.com/Techno_Fog/status/1245408964319367169

 

Literally gave him the bird. That's something. 

[Buffalo_Gal]

 

[plenzmd1]

15 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Right, as we continue to test, the number of cases are going to rise. Hospitalizations and, primarily, deaths are more relevant numbers.

I think hospitalizations are key, as 1) increased hospitilzations would mean outbreak is growing..tests or no tests..2)lack of hospital beds etc will lead to increased deaths I would think

4 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

Y

 

There are elements of the govt overreach that I believe are, for example, this whole tracing scenario with apps being downloaded concerns me greatly.  On the other hand, Google location services does as well and here I am.

 

 

You know, thats a great point. I try to do all I can to limit all apps from using location services except when using the app, but realistically,  like you said they prolly know my every step anyway.

[Chandemonium]

58 minutes ago, Foxx said:

**very important**

https://twitter.com/kenningtonsays/status/1256185757422755841

 

This is why I have automatic updates turned off.

[shoshin]

52 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

these are cases no? Or am i reading the charts wrong? 

 

If it is cases, i would think as testing becomes more available and quicker, easy to obtain, and more prevalent , cases will grow as fast as the testing grows.Am i wrong there?

 

I believe the more relavnt stat is hospitalizations and morbidity numbers per capita. Again, I may be wrong and welcome thoughts the other way.

 

I agree re hospitalizations--I was using the Trump guidelines measurement that the states have to meet case counts declining before reopening (or % pos decreasing). 

Edited May 1, 2020 by shoshin

[billsfan1959]

21 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

You know, thats a great point. I try to do all I can to limit all apps from using location services except when using the app, but realistically,  like you said they prolly know my every step anyway.

 

However, those location services and other data from your phone are not shared with the government, except through legal process (i.e., subpoena, court order, search warrant) based on an ongoing criminal or national security matter.

[GG]

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

**very important**

https://twitter.com/kenningtonsays/status/1256185757422755841

 

 

So much for the voluntary opt-in?

[GG]

7 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

However, those location services and other data from your phone are not shared with the government, except through legal process (i.e., subpoena, court order, search warrant) based on an ongoing criminal or national security matter.

 

Unless a certain Congressman from So Cal calls his friends at the phone companies ...

[Magox]

2 hours ago, shoshin said:

Some good graphs here to show what states are meeting the Trump guidelines and really should be reopening. 

 

Not as many states trending down over 14 days as I suspected. Many like PA and TX  trending level to only slightly down in recent days and others (MA, NC, and MD) with clear upwards trends. Based on those, the Trump guidelines would say they are not ready to start Phase 1. 

 

There is a problem with that...The amount of testing that is taking place now is considerably higher than it was two weeks ago.   So it does stand-to-reason that the states that are showing as confirmed infections as remaining flat are most likely trending lower in actual infections.

 

From my perspective, the ones trending lower in confirmed cases and are remaining flat can reasonably make the case that they are meeting the stated guidelines of the Federal government.

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

these are cases no? Or am i reading the charts wrong? 

 

If it is cases, i would think as testing becomes more available and quicker, easy to obtain, and more prevalent , cases will grow as fast as the testing grows.Am i wrong there?

 

I believe the more relavnt stat is hospitalizations and morbidity numbers per capita. Again, I may be wrong and welcome thoughts the other way.

 

Dangit, you beat me to it. 

58 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Right, as we continue to test, the number of cases are going to rise. Hospitalizations and, primarily, deaths are more relevant numbers.

 You too

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, GG said:

Unless a certain Congressman from So Cal calls his friends at the phone companies ...

 

Right, as long as Trump is the ultimate target, then the rules set in place to protect against government abuses don't really need to be followed.....

[shoshin]

22 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

There is a problem with that...The amount of testing that is taking place now is considerably higher than it was two weeks ago.   So it does stand-to-reason that the states that are showing as confirmed infections as remaining flat are most likely trending lower in actual infections.

 

From my perspective, the ones trending lower in confirmed cases and are remaining flat can reasonably make the case that they are meeting the stated guidelines of the Federal government.

 

 

Fault the guidelines, not me. I'm pointing out that these states are not meeting the guidelines that require a standard of fewer positive cases as tested OR fewer positive % of cases of time (the later becoming more relevant as the case measurement increases). I can tell you in my state that shows level, we meet neither one. Our state is not following the guidelines anyways so it doesn't matter. 

Edited May 1, 2020 by shoshin

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Fault the guidelines, not me. I'm pointing out that these states are not meeting the guidelines that require a standard of fewer positive cases as tested OR fewer positive % of cases of time (the later becoming more relevant as the case measurement increases). I can tell you in my state that shows level, we meet neither one. Our state is not following the guidelines anyways so it doesn't matter. 

 

I think reasonable people can agree that the intention is if real infections are going down, not what it shows on paper.

[IDBillzFan]

2 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

Bully for you. The rest of us will take the small step of wearing a mask to try to keep everyone safe.  

 

At the risk of speaking out of turn, the point you're missing is that what he posted has nothing to do with common courtesy and everything to do with being forced to do something you should not be forced to do...like wear a mask.

 

Or buy health insurance, which is why so many people were against Obamacare: it forced you to buy a product or actually be forcibly fined via tax garnishment for NOT buying that product. You are literally fined for not buying something mandated by the federal government.

 

That's pretty much the opposite of what America stands for.

 

Is it prudent and wise to have some kind of health insurance? Of courrse. Should you be forced to buy it against your will? Absolutely not.

 

Same thing with masks. Is it prudent? Yes. Should it be mandated? No effin' way.

 

 

[shoshin]

3 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

I think reasonable people can agree that the intention is if real infections are going down, not what it shows on paper.

 

I think objective measures will keep reasonable people reasonable. 

 

The best measure of all is hospitalization ICU usage or whatever the limiting resource is on hospitalization. The Trump guidelines consider this as an "always-on" prerequisite that hospitals are not operating in crisis care mode (a vague standard but one hospitals can measure somehow based on availability of resources). 

 

But the Trump guidelines have the hospitalization as an "and" with other things:

 

[shoshin]

48 minutes ago, GG said:

 

So much for the voluntary opt-in?

 

That feature is in beta so developers can make tools. The Tweet and his post didn't note this. 

 

Not yet ready for primetime unfortunately. 

 

 

[Magox]

17 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

I think objective measures will keep reasonable people reasonable. 

 

The best measure of all is hospitalization ICU usage or whatever the limiting resource is on hospitalization. The Trump guidelines consider this as an "always-on" prerequisite that hospitals are not operating in crisis care mode (a vague standard but one hospitals can measure somehow based on availability of resources). 

 

But the Trump guidelines have the hospitalization as an "and" with other things:

 

 

Right, as I said.

[snafu]

3 hours ago, shoshin said:

Some good graphs here to show what states are meeting the Trump guidelines and really should be reopening. 

 

Not as many states trending down over 14 days as I suspected. Many like PA and TX  trending level to only slightly down in recent days and others (MA, NC, and MD) with clear upwards trends. Based on those, the Trump guidelines would say they are not ready to start Phase 1. 

 

Am I reading NY correct? Shouldn’t NY be going to Phase 1 today?

Do you have a NYC chart? If the state is going to open regionally, it would be good to see what the City looks like.

 

I’m getting a sense that NYS and NYC are going to be extra cautious even though there are guidelines. People aren’t going to do too well being told to wait when guidelines are being ignored to the “safe” side.  

 

 

 

[shoshin]

2 minutes ago, snafu said:

 

Am I reading NY correct? Shouldn’t NY be going to Phase 1 today?

Do you have a NYC chart? If the state is going to open regionally, it would be good to see what the City looks like.

 

I’m getting a sense that NYS and NYC are going to be extra cautious even though there are guidelines. People aren’t going to do too well being told to wait when guidelines are being ignored to the “safe” side.  

 

 

 

 

The cases declining over 14 days is only one factor in the Trump guidelines. The others are just a few posts upstream but include hospitals not in crisis care, testing, and also (not pasted above):

 

[Koko78]

3 hours ago, Foxx said:

https://twitter.com/JoeySalads/status/1256047558624862208

 

 

Sic semper tyrannis.

[GG]

12 minutes ago, snafu said:

 

Am I reading NY correct? Shouldn’t NY be going to Phase 1 today?

Do you have a NYC chart? If the state is going to open regionally, it would be good to see what the City looks like.

 

I’m getting a sense that NYS and NYC are going to be extra cautious even though there are guidelines. People aren’t going to do too well being told to wait when guidelines are being ignored to the “safe” side.  

 

 

 

 

That is correct, and when you look at the log scale of NYS and NYC growth, the crisis clearly peaked 2 weeks ago.  NYS north of Orange County needs to open up ASAP.